Tesla Stock Analysis

Jul 25, 2024

Tesla Stock Analysis

Major Takeaways

Investment Returns in Tesla

  • $200 investment in July 2019: Worth $3,000 in July 2023.
  • Tesla rewards long-term investors and punishes short-term traders.

Recent Performance and Market Reaction

  • Earnings report: Beat on revenue but missed on EPS (Earnings Per Share).
  • Mainstream media reaction: Spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) among retail investors.
  • Pattern observed: Media often triggers buy/sell at inopportune times.

Tesla Stock Price and Market Sentiment Trends

  • Frequent historical price fluctuations pointed out, e.g. from $300 to $190, up to $400, down to $265, etc.
  • Media-driven cycles affect stock sentiment heavily.

Key Messages

  • Those who held Tesla long-term benefited greatly.
  • Media manipulation leads to poor investment decisions: buying high and selling low.
  • Message from Elon Musk: If you don’t believe in Tesla’s long-term vision, sell the stock.

Fundamentals of Tesla

Financial Metrics (Recent Quarter)

  • Automotive Revenue: $19.9 billion, up from $17.4 billion (quarter-over-quarter).
  • Energy Revenues: $3 billion, up 100% year over year.
  • Service Revenue: $2.6 billion, up 21% from last quarter.
  • Operating Margin: 6.3% (up from 5.5% previous quarter, down from 9.6% previous year).
  • Net Income: Up 30% from previous quarter.
  • Net Cash from Operations: $3.6 billion, up $3.3 billion from previous quarter.
  • Cash Position: $30.7 billion, a record high.

Key Points on Tesla’s Margins

  • Lower margins due to price reductions on vehicles.
  • Despite lower margins per vehicle, overall revenue and profit increased due to higher volume of sales.
  • Lower margins linked to higher long-term gains.

Tesla’s Future Outlook

Beyond a Car Company

  • Diversified: Not just automotive, but also energy, autonomous driving, robotics, etc.
  • Energy Sector: $3 billion and growing, becoming an industry leader.
  • FSD Licensing: Expected to become a major revenue source.
  • Potential for high margins: Especially with FSD-related sales.

Price Target and Vision

  • Price Target: $1,400 (longer-term), backed by fundamental strength and growth potential.
  • Future Growth Factors: Autonomous driving, FSD, energy growth, potential in Robotaxi and Optimus projects.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

  • Ignore Media Noise: Media often misguides with negative sentiment.
  • DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging): Especially during periods of negative sentiment and price drops.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: Continued operational and financial improvements make Tesla a strong long-term investment.

Conclusion

  • Overall Message: Tesla remains a strong long-term investment despite media-driven fear and temporary setbacks. Focus on own research and fundamentals rather than market noise for better investment outcomes.