So we've been tracking closely the escalating war Israel versus Hezbollah in Lebanon and some deeply troubling news coming out just recently. Let's put this up on the screen. It appears that Israel is preparing for a potential ground invasion.
This is from the Financial Times. They say Israel on Wednesday told troops to prepare for a potential ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon as Joe Biden warned an all-out war is possible but pushed for a ceasefire deal. Let me just continue to read some of the details here from the Financial Times.
The IDF's chief of staff told troops airstrikes on Lebanon were not just aimed at degrading the Lebanese militant group, but to prepare the ground for your possible entry. Quote, we are preparing the process of a maneuver, which means your military boots, your maneuvering boots will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts. They also said that they were calling up two reserve brigades.
Although, Sagar, this is less of a show of force than prior to the ground invasion of Gaza. However, we've already seen massive carnage. Somewhere around 600 Lebanese people killed.
The Lebanese health ministry is saying that a majority of those, if not all of them, those are their words, were civilians. We know quite a number of children and women are among those who were killed. by the Israeli airstrikes already. So we're looking here at a very likely potential, even further escalation.
Very, very, very possible. And even worse is that we have basically a total failure of US diplomacy. We're already getting embarrassed on the national stage.
So for example, we have here Tony Blinken getting asked about the situation. Let's take a listen to what he said. Does the US support what Israel is doing right now in terms of this escalation?
in order to later de-escalate and get to the negotiating table. What we support is solving the problem of making sure that people can go home, but we believe the best way to solve it is through diplomacy, not through war. Why does the U.S. not have or use more leverage over Israel, its ally?
We are the supplier of the bulk of its weapons of war, and yet there are countless examples, and you probably know them better than I, where Israel seems to flout what the U.S. is asking or suggesting. Why is that? We have a longstanding relationship and security relationship with Israel, including making sure that it has what it needs to prevent the many enemies that it has from attacking it, to deter them.
And that's important to avoiding war as well. And in this instance, there is a real problem that needs to be solved. Again, from our perspective, the best way to do it is diplomatically.
We're engaged with Israel on that. We're engaged with others in the region on that. And we need to, I think, find the opportunity now to stop any escalation. Prevent a full-scale war get people back to their homes So that's what he has to say and yet just this morning after the US and France Released some sort of ceasefire proposal They tried to intimate that the IDF was on board the Prime Minister Israel's office in the middle of the night puts out this statement the report about a ceasefire is incorrect This is an American French proposal that the Prime Minister has not even Responded to the report about the purported directive to ease up on the fighting in the north is the opposite of truth Think about that. So Not only, so our Secretary of State goes on television, we're about to get to this, our president also went on television basically touting this ceasefire proposal and almost implying that they had agreed to it.
And then the Israelis come out and they're like, no, we're not going to agree. And by the way, not only do we not agree, we're actually not agreeing at all to any lack of escalation in fighting. So our troops are already on the way. We've got 40,000 at a minimum.
There's probably going to be 50,000, 60,000 that are going to be somewhere in the region. And things are just very, very close to popping off. Full scale. And meanwhile, Tony Blinken is on television just talking about how great it is to supply Israel with weapons.
The president's on TV downplaying this entire thing. It's crazy. The whole situation is nuts. It truly is. And forgive my language.
I mean, Bibi has turned Biden and Blinken et al into his little bitches. From the beginning of this war, Biden has said, Blinken has said, all of them have said, the top priority is to keep it to us from escalating into a regional war. By the way, we crossed that bridge a long time ago.
But now we're talking about massive bombing campaign in Lebanon, Lebanese civilians being killed, threats of turning Lebanon into Gaza, which means utter and complete annihilation, and now a ground invasion. No end in sight. And the best they can do is go on television and say, well, they have the right to defend themselves, but I mean, I guess I kind of wish they would do it diplomatically, but like, we'll support them no matter what.
It's like, what do you think you're going to get? By the way, these guys want. Bibi in particular want Trump to be president.
They would love nothing more for a big, messy Middle Eastern disaster in September and October to hand Trump the White House again. I just, I mean, it's so absurd. It's so stupid.
It's so morally depraved. I have no words for it whatsoever. And yet here we are.
I don't know what happened with the ceasefire proposal. If the US really genuinely thought Bibi was on board with it, and then his ministers freaked out and he backed off of it. I don't know. But the truth of the matter is, because the far right ministers in his government are willing to wield what power they have and threaten to collapse the government and for Bibi to pay a political cost, they have much more power in the situation. than the superpower of which Israel is supposed to be the client state that is arming and funding all of this because they're not willing to use an iota of pressure.
And I don't want to lose sight either of the fact that the willingness to continually ship arms with absolutely no conditions on Israel is a dramatically unpopular position. New poll, only 23% of Americans, this was written up at Responsible Statecraft, by the way, only 23% of Americans. want the U.S. to send unconditioned aid to Israel, including a majority of Republicans are opposed to sending unconditioned aid to Israel.
And yet this is treated like you can't even float it, like it's impossible to even put on the table. And so the results are entirely disgraceful and entirely predictable. Going back to like the utter humiliation here, you had Biden on The View yesterday talking about- Talking up this theoretical ceasefire that Bibi's already come out and shot down, let's go ahead and take a listen to what he had to say.
An all-out war is possible, but I think there's also the opportunity. We're still in play. To have a settlement that could fundamentally change the whole region. And look, one of the things that I found is the Arab world very much wants to have a settlement because they know what it does for them. They're willing to make arrangements with Israel and alliances if Israel changes some policies.
And I've known Bibi Netanyahu for a long, long time. Thank you. And I'm a very strong supporter of Israel.
I make no bones about it. I said years ago I was a Zionist. All a Zionist means is that there needs to be an Israel. And they have a possibility.
I don't want to exaggerate it. But a possibility if we can deal with a ceasefire in Lebanon, that it can move into dealing with the West Bank. But we also have Gaza to deal with.
And so, but it's possible. And I'm using every bit of energy I have with my team. And you know from the Defense Department, you know it well.
So, I mean, we already know the answer to that one. That didn't work out. I mean, the idea that he still thinks that there's some broader solution here, in the absence of him forcing it to happen and using pressure, is just preposterous.
Like, you can't even believe that he believes it at this point. Oh, no, I can't, actually. Really?
You think he's that foolish? I don't know. His brain is shot.
Like, he lives in a fantasy world. Also, we're the laughing stock. I'm watching this British show right now called Industry, and they have this scene of the American president of the Treasury Secretary being like, and we have a president who still thinks of war with Japan.
And the world is laughing at us, laughing. BB is laughing. Look at this. Meanwhile, and you caught this, I don't even know how I missed it.
You see that little Ukraine pin there? Our president is wearing the flag of a foreign nation on his lapel. Okay, these are the types of things in the Obama era we actually used to care about. But the whole thing is just so insane because it's a client state, like you said, we're the superpower.
Our Secretary of State, which used to mean something, goes on television and is just humiliated. Our president goes on television whose brain is shot and he's like, whoa, it's too possible to prevent an all-out war. And at the same time, like, look at the actual things that are happening on the ground. Tens of thousands of American troops already there and or on the way to the region with 100% commitment.
to defending them against whatever situation that they get into. I mean, there's only one pact for all of America that that applies to. That's NATO. We don't even have a security guarantee with Israel in that regard. Why do we do this?
There's no reason for us to get into this. Yeah. Ryan and Emily covered yesterday what should be also a massive scandal, which is that the State Department produced a report saying...
which is kind of obvious, but anyway, saying that, hey, Israel is blocking our aid. Like, they are the reason why our aid isn't getting to the people we want it to get to. That is extremely consequential because if that finding is determined, then you are not allowed by U.S. law, forget about international law, by our laws, you are then prohibited from shipping arms to a nation that is blocking your aid, which, I mean, seems kind of logical, right?
Tony Blinken came in and said, no. I don't believe that. I don't buy it. And I'm just going to make my own determination. And then disregards that report and goes to Congress and says, no, we think they're doing their best effectively to enable the continued shipment of arms.
This is a violation of our laws. It is illegal that we are shipping these arms to Israel. Forget about morality. Forget about strategic interests.
Forget about all of that. They are violating our own laws blatantly. In any sort of a sane society, this would be a massive, explosive scandal. And instead, because the mainstream coverage and the corporate press is so ideologically aligned here, you'll barely hear anything about, I believe it was ProPublica that broke the news on this.
And so, you know, here we are, and Gaza's already annihilated. The West Bank is on its way to be Gaza, and Lebanon's now on its way to be Gaza. And the best that our president can go out and do is, like, meekly float a ceasefire proposal on the view that immediately gets shot down. Barack Ravid reported on this theoretical ceasefire deal.
I can put this up on the screen, even though it's sort of pointless at this point. You know, the idea was for some quote-unquote pause, I guess a humanitarian pause, in the fighting in Lebanon, resumption of negotiations on a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal. It has been apparent since October 8th that Bibi has no interest in a long-term ceasefire deal, that he would have to be dragged to it through the force of U.S. pressure and never along the way has the U.S. decided, hey, maybe we should switch strategies here. Maybe if we want a different outcome, we should try a different approach.
Lastly, just in terms of some of the broader context of what this is going to mean, let's put this up from Times of Israel, which is more of a right-leaning English-language publication in Israel. The headline here is, Israel's pounding Hezbollah, but in war, the Iran-backed force will be a lethal foe. You know, they're still outmatched, of course. We're— arming Israel, so superpowers arms to Israel. They've got a lot going for them.
But they have quite a bit of capability and they also have the inherent advantage of being the defending party. So, you know, it allows them a strategic advantage just from the jump. Some of the reporting here, Hezbollah now has 40 to 80 thousand short-range unguided rockets, some 60 to 80 thousand long-range unguided rockets that can reach a hundred kilometers. Ballistic missile arsenal is smaller but can reach much further into Israel. We saw a missile that was shot down headed towards the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv.
In an all-out war, they say Hezbollah could use its firepower in a number of ways. They could use unguided rockets against population centers to erode the public's will and trust in the government and to disrupt the functioning of the country. They also talk, and this was an interesting saga, about the way that how important drones are.
But not the really big sophisticated drones. It's the fact that they have all of these smaller drones that they can use to potentially like swarm and overwhelm Iron Dome. And that they've been testing out some of this and you know since 2006 they haven't been just resting on their laurels.
They've been trying to figure out you know how they could be more effective. So you know this is a much vastly more sophisticated adversary than Hamas in Gaza. You know, they have real weaponry from Iran and have built up their capabilities.
Yes, they suffered a blow in those, you know, Pager and walkie-talkie attacks, which not only took out a number of their people, but also has, I'm sure, made communication very difficult. But this is a much different adversary than what Israel has faced up to this point. I keep saying this.
You know, the drone point is very important. Russia is getting drones from where? Iran. Hezbollah is sponsored by who?
Iran. Also, Hezbollah fought, what, a decade in the Syrian? civil war. Syria was the real experimental ground for the beginnings of this small Chinese drone warfare.
ISIS, Hezbollah, all of these other organizations. You can go watch it if you want. It's all right there on Telegram.
But then in Ukraine, it got gasoline was poured on the fire. The technology got better. And then the widespread application of these and the use of them by the armed forces and by the like at the industrial state level in terms of launching them towards Ukraine. It's been a real way that they've been able to penetrate.
air defense systems. This is a massive problem, not just for Israel, for all of us, actually, if you think about it, because we have these super sophisticated systems, which are supposed against ICBMs, but it turns out these tiny little cheap drones are a very easy way to defeat those systems, and we don't have a particularly good answer. This is exactly what they would have to face, a much more technologically advanced enemy, a much more capable fighting force, who's been battle-tested, far more battle-tested than the IDF has. And the people in Israel who actually have to fight, they know this.
They have to call up already multiple reservists. It would devastate their economy even more than it already has. Don't forget, I mean, this war has been a disaster for them.
It's cost them hundreds of billions of shekels and decimated their workforce. They still have all that controversy where like half their population doesn't even have to fight. So this would be huge.
I mean, they haven't lost all that many soldiers in Gaza relatively compared to what they would in. a real Lebanon conflagration. So I'm worried about it.
I really am. And already they shot down this ceasefire proposal, even though you have what the U.S., Japan, the U.A., like all of these major powers that have signed on to it. It doesn't matter.
They just don't care. They don't care. And why should they? Why should Bibi in particular?
Because, you know, when he sees very clearly what his political imperative is. And so, listen, it's one thing, you know, Israel just using their air force to go in and bomb. That's, you know, warfare on easy mode. But if there's an actual ground invasion, they're going to suffer losses of, you know, the sort that they have not yet had to suffer in the context of this war. And it's just, you know, then you're inviting, okay, is Iran getting pulled directly into this?
How are we impacted? How are troops in the region impacted? How much more directly do we get pulled in?
And then the, you know, the level of suffering is just unending. And as I keep saying, no end in sight. So that's what we're looking at today.
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