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Atlantic Weather Update Overview
Aug 3, 2024
Chaos to Clarity - Meteorological Update
Introduction
Host: Meteorologist Bernie Rold
Last update: Early July for Barrel
Focus: Current situation in the Atlantic
Current Atlantic Conditions
Saharan Dust Impact
Significant amounts of Saharan dust limiting tropical development
Typical quiet period for tropical activity from mid-July to mid-August
Early June/July: Jet streams can support tropical systems
Current situation: Jet stream is lifted north, reducing interaction with tropics
Tropical Wave Tracking
A tropical wave originated from Africa and is moving eastward
Surrounded by dry air limiting development
Upper level low moving westward, also covered by dry air
Potential for development depends on the interaction between the upper low and tropical moisture
Development Hurdles
Dry Air
If dry air dominates, it could dissipate the system
Likely to limit but not completely inhibit development
Land Interaction
Potential interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola (Thursday/Friday)
If the system passes over land, it could weaken significantly
Modeling and Predictions
European Model Overview
Key focus: Energy associated with the upper low, not the tropical wave
By Tuesday: Energy is expected to be north and west of the islands
Wednesday: A clear circulation pattern developing north of the Virgin Islands
Wind Shear and Conditions
Current wind shear (200 mb level) is present
Wind shear may lessen by Thursday, allowing for potential organization
If the system remains north of Hispaniola, development chances increase
Key Timeframe and Potential Development
Limited organization expected until mid-week
Development favorable by Wednesday/Thursday near Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
If it avoids Hispaniola and interacts with the Atlantic, it could become a storm
Potential for impacts on Florida and Carolinas late this weekend/early next week
Conclusion
50/50 chance of system development
Critical factors: Dry air, land interaction, and location
Continued monitoring required
Contact via Twitter for any questions (@acuro)
Summary
No immediate development expected this week
Possible development near Florida if the system survives initial hurdles
Remain cautious of updates as conditions evolve.
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