Atlantic Weather Update Overview

Aug 3, 2024

Chaos to Clarity - Meteorological Update

Introduction

  • Host: Meteorologist Bernie Rold
  • Last update: Early July for Barrel
  • Focus: Current situation in the Atlantic

Current Atlantic Conditions

Saharan Dust Impact

  • Significant amounts of Saharan dust limiting tropical development
  • Typical quiet period for tropical activity from mid-July to mid-August
  • Early June/July: Jet streams can support tropical systems
  • Current situation: Jet stream is lifted north, reducing interaction with tropics

Tropical Wave Tracking

  • A tropical wave originated from Africa and is moving eastward
  • Surrounded by dry air limiting development
  • Upper level low moving westward, also covered by dry air
  • Potential for development depends on the interaction between the upper low and tropical moisture

Development Hurdles

  1. Dry Air
    • If dry air dominates, it could dissipate the system
    • Likely to limit but not completely inhibit development
  2. Land Interaction
    • Potential interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola (Thursday/Friday)
    • If the system passes over land, it could weaken significantly

Modeling and Predictions

European Model Overview

  • Key focus: Energy associated with the upper low, not the tropical wave
  • By Tuesday: Energy is expected to be north and west of the islands
  • Wednesday: A clear circulation pattern developing north of the Virgin Islands

Wind Shear and Conditions

  • Current wind shear (200 mb level) is present
  • Wind shear may lessen by Thursday, allowing for potential organization
  • If the system remains north of Hispaniola, development chances increase

Key Timeframe and Potential Development

  • Limited organization expected until mid-week
  • Development favorable by Wednesday/Thursday near Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
  • If it avoids Hispaniola and interacts with the Atlantic, it could become a storm
  • Potential for impacts on Florida and Carolinas late this weekend/early next week

Conclusion

  • 50/50 chance of system development
  • Critical factors: Dry air, land interaction, and location
  • Continued monitoring required
  • Contact via Twitter for any questions (@acuro)

Summary

  • No immediate development expected this week
  • Possible development near Florida if the system survives initial hurdles
  • Remain cautious of updates as conditions evolve.