and welcome to chaos the clarity I'm meteorologist Bernie rold it's been a while since I've did this video the last time we did this video was for Barrel back in early July but uh there's a tricky situation setting up in the Atlantic uh I want to show you uh what's going on in the Atlantic right now let's take you to the water vapor Loop or actually the Saharan dust product here and this is why you tend to get very little development from mid July and mid August most years not all years but most years you could see all of this this is all Saharan dust and this is what's really been limiting tropical development now remember during the early during June and the early July you get jet streams coming south that can kick off tropical development the in the Gulf of Mexico the Southwest Atlantic and in the Caribbean but this time of the year that jet stream is lifted way up to the north so you do not have any interaction between the jet stream and the Tropics so the only way you can get the velop is these tropical waves coming off Africa right where there's so much dry air that it in that it limits development that's why it gets quiet now couple of things going on we've been tracking this tropical wave it came off Africa on Wednesday and it's been slowly pressing Eastward over the last four to five days now it's surrounded by dry air by the way the other thing we're going to keep an eye on is this you've got an upper level low right in here see right in here this is also moving to the West it is also un covered by dry air that's why we haven't seen any development now the question I think what's going to happen is if we get development it's the combination between this upper low and some of this tropical moisture getting embedded into the system but I think it's not so much the tropical wave that's going to develop if it does it's going to be the energy with this upper low as it pushes to the east all right now this whole thing has some hurdles to go over or to get through in order to get some development here and I want I want to go over it for you I created a little flow chart here that um will uh help explain what's going on so here's what this upper low and this tropical moisture has to go through there are two hurdles for this wave to become a storm first of all the dry air all right now if this dry air if it doesn't survive it not only does it develop it may just dissipate so if this dry a kills it then it's game Setter match I don't think that's going to happen I think it's going to limit development but it's going to survive the next hurdle it's going to have to overcome is the land interaction with Cuba and uh Hispanola this is going to be as we get into Thursday and Friday now if this goes right off this energy goes right over Cuban and Hispanola especially Hispanola this could totally disip and if it does then we don't have to worry about it however if this system survives this second hurdle then we have to take a we then we may have to worry about a storm forming near Florida now that could be in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico or it could be in Southwest Atlantic the time frame on this would be over the upcoming weekend so that's kind of what's going to happen these are the two hurdles if this system gets through these two hurdles then I think we have a better than 50/50 chance that we're looking at some tropical development here so that's kind of what we're facing with this as we move forward all right here's what I want to do um I want to show you some of the modeling on this so you get a sense of uh what we're looking at here and I want to take you to the uh European model here quickly all right here's what we're looking at here with this system so this is uh 500 milbar here this is so here we are this afternoon and I think the more and more I look at this the more I more I think that most of the energy if we do get a tropical system it's going to be with the upper low not necessarily the tropical wave let let me show you why I think that let me go back to this morning so this is the energy associated with the tropical wave right in here follow this along on the European I'm going to follow it along so it's right in here watch where that energy goes see that's going into the cariban see right in here see I I think that this energy is what we're looking at around 50° North and 13 12 13 degrees or 50 degrees west 12 to 13 degrees north some of this moisture is going to go northward but the main Crux of this wave I think goes into the Caribbean and it's too far south and there's not going to be any development I think the system to watch to more and more I look at it is this let me go back it's this energy in here this is the energy to watch this is if we get a tropical system it's with this piece of energy not the tropical wave now does some of the moisture from the tropical wave get in trained to it sure but I think we have to focus on this all right now watch where this goes as we go forward here let's play this out so um by the time we get into Tuesday uh that energy let's say Tuesday afternoon that energy is right in here north and west of the islands all right we still have some dry air to deal with here we also have a little bit of wind shear let me show you the 200 milar in this area see it's right in here you you have this dip in the jet stream right in here right this is producing southernly wind shear so as this system comes into that it's not going to develop that's why I I would not look for any development with this system through Tuesday if not even Wednesday and Thursday let's continue to follow this piece of energy so what are we following we're more following the upper low than we are the uh uh tropical wave this is Wednesday morning this is where the energy is right in here all right so it's north and west of the islands Wednesday morning let's go to Wednesday evening here it is you can definitely see a circulation here uh north of the Virgin Islands all right so this is what it looks like this is where the energy is I think the tropical waves down here and it's gone I think you got to focus on the upper low all right what's going on at 200 millibars here this is where we're looking at the wind shear do we have any wind shear this is at 200 millibars right in here and what's happening is is this trough that's been producing wind shears lifting so you're starting to get less wind shear in this area so this is where you're going to start seeing this system start to let's say organize a little bit and you can clearly see that because Watch What Happens this is 8:00 Wednesday Watch What Happens as we get into Thursday you start seeing uh Thursday afternoon you start start seeing some bright colors in here north of Puerto Rico you see it so that's where the system is what does the wind share look like there's not much in fact you've got a big upper high in here or at least a weak upper High I should say right in here so you have very light wind shear low winds aoft also the dry air is going to be diminishing so this is when the system starts to develop as we get into Thursday now the question is is where does it go if it's this far north as I get in the Friday morning or let's say uh late Thursday Thursday night here's the energy and notice where it is it's north of Hispanola in Puerto Rico that's a critical move if this energy if I saw this energy come over Hispanola especially Hispanola I think it would diminish and there wouldn't be any development whatsoever so this was the second hurdle interaction with Hispanola That's Thursday night in the Friday if it misses Hispanola and stays off to the North like the European model suggest because it's not the tropical wave that develops it's this upper low then we're going to have some problems because you can clearly see when you look at 200 millibar here where the system is there's no wind shear in here and there's less dry air so this is going to start to develop let's start moving it Forward here as we get into Friday and the upcoming weekend let's go to Friday afternoon here it is Friday afternoon 2:00 here's the energy it's over the Turks and cost and the southern Bahamas so it's not down here it's in here north of Cuba what does it look like at 200 milar do we have any wind shear in that area and the answer is is not really because you see what's going on in here your system is located in here and you've got a 200 mbar high so you have light winds Loft right so this is going to start to develop then and if it continues to move northwestward as we think it will it starts getting into there we go and then all of a sudden by Saturday it's across the northern Bahamas you have your upper high in here right uh at 200 milar is what's going on with windshire not much a little bit of southerly wind shear but it's it'll be moving parallel to that so what I'm concerned about if the European is right and we're tracking this upper low and it stays north of Hispanola it stays north of Cuba it gets in the southwestern Atlantic I see light wind shearing a lack of dry air and then it's going to develop now the question is what is is it the upper low or the tropical wave that's the question I kind of think it's this upper low and not the tropical wave I think the tropical wave gets buried goes down in the Southern Caribbean and it's game Setter match it's game set match it's the upper low now maybe they're Europeans wrong and the upper low is a little farther south and it goes over Hispanola and if that happens that would be Thursday and Friday this thing would weaken and it would not develop at all my concern is it's it's the upper low it's farther north and once it gets past Hispanola then I think you have light wind share you have you don't have any dry air and then this is going to try to become a storm and it would threaten the Carolina and Florida coast uh late this weekend and the early next week that's a concern all right I want to tidy it up here with some graphics to give you an idea of what we're thinking here uh let me put this on full so you can see it all right this is what we're looking at here over the next couple of days limited organization as it moves oh let me start with this one here I'm I'm I'm out of order this is the one I want to start with so here it is today there's still too much dry air I don't think we're going to look for any organization you it won't be a tropical depression it certainly won't be a storm not until we get in past Tuesday now once it gets toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in this Zone and again it's either going to be the tropical waiver the upper low I think conditions are favorable for development it may become a tropical depression I still think it is so weak right now it's going to take some time to get rid of that dry air that's been hampering it but certainly conditions are more favorable for development Wednesday Thursday as it nears the uh Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands now where does it go from there this is where it gets even trickier because then as we get into Thursday and Friday it starts to interact with Hispanola now if the energy stays North toward the Turks and Kos and north of Hispanola then the interaction will be limited and with light wind shear this could really start to go it could easily become a tropical depression or storm but if it's too far south and interacts with the islands then again I think not much development happens assuming it clears this hurdle and gets in either the Eastern Gulf of Mexico or more likely the Southwest Atlantic this is where you start to get concerned because there's abundant moisture and low wind shear and this is where it could start to develop and that would be this weekend all right so that's where we are with this right now and that's why if you look at our development what are we looking at here we think there's a 50/50 chance this is going to develop it all depends on what's left of this energy as it enters this area of abundant moisture and low wind share I suspect that there will be no development until gets into this area near Florida and that would be this weekend the only uh the only caveat to that is if the energy is far enough north of Hispanola Thursday night and Friday maybe we can get a depression I don't think we would get a tropical storm until it gets into this area as we get into the upcoming weekend and then depending on where it is certainly would have impacts uh on the United States so it's a pretty complicated setup certainly as we go forward here but the key is the key takes away is this don't look for any development through the middle part of this week I think if it becomes a storm it will become a storm near Florida whether in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico or in the southwest Atlantic as we head into this weekend and if it does then it's certainly going to threaten Florida and uh if it's out in the southwest Atlantic it's going to get awfully close to the Carolinas so I'm going to have more on this as we go forward here but I think this is something we're going to have to watch certainly and I think if it if it survives lives it gets past the dry air the next couple of days if it gets over the second hurdle in Hispanola and gets in the southwest Atlantic or Eastern Gulf of Mexico then it's going to try to develop and that'll be this weekend I hope that makes sense there is a lay a lot of chaos with this I hope I've made it some clarity uh out of it as well if you have any questions you can uh you can contact me on Twitter I'm at acuro or I should say x I'm at acuro have yourself a great great Monday