Lecture Notes: Interplay of Multiple Time Frames

Key Concepts

• Discussion of market analysis using different time frames and moving averages.
• Emphasis on interpreting levels of interest without immediate action until evidence is clear.

Daily Time Frame Analysis

• Declining 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• Above the advancing 200-day moving average indicating potential bullish sentiment.
• Presence of Fibonacci retracement level at 38.2%.

Weekly Indicators

• Rising weekly moving volume weighted average price.
• Rising five-day moving average suggests potential for continuation of upward movement.
• Importance of identifying evidence of breakdown before making decisions.

Levels of Interest

• The role of the week-to-date volume-weighted average price as a key indicator.
• Specific point of interest: 573.50, pivotal in determining potential pullback.

Market Conditions

• Current environment makes shorting the market unreasonable due to lack of evidence.
• Importance of waiting for levels to be tested before concluding resistance.

Specific Market Indices

• NASDAQ:

  • Above the 20-day moving average.
  • Not quite at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
  • Higher lows above a rising week-to-date volume weighted average price.

• Russell 2000:

  • Encountered supply at a higher low (not quite a lower high yet).
  • Challenges in shorting due to rising five-day moving average.

Sector Analysis

• Semiconductors:

  • Dealing with declining 20-day moving average but above key anchors.
  • Potential for market to reach 50-day moving average.

• Biotechs:

  • Continue to struggle, showing no relative strength.
  • Breakout attempts have failed; cautious approach advised.

• Financials:

  • Transition from lower to higher highs and lows indicating shifting sentiment.
  • Buying dips and picking tops discouraged.

• Energy:

  • Above a rising five-day moving average; no significant changes.

Stock Specifics

• Tesla:

  • Experienced follow-through and opportunities for day traders.
  • Afternoon pullbacks were significant.

• Palantir:

  • Running out of momentum, not advisable for shorting.
  • Holding above rising five-day moving average.

• SMCI:

  • Not showing potential; market position downgraded.

• NVIDIA:

  • Neutral performance with no significant movements.

General Advice

• Avoid fighting the trend; focus on moving average indicators.
• Adjust trading strategies based on volatility and current market sentiment.
• Importance of trading smaller sizes in uncertain markets.