Hey everybody, it is Tuesday the 25th and we have the interplay of multiple time frames here which we always talk about. On the left side with the daily time frame we have a declining 20-day moving average and a declining 50-day moving average but we got above the advancing 200-day moving average. We're coming into this prior band of support.
We've got Fibonacci in here at a 38.2% retracement and more important we have the anchor from the all-time high over here on the right. But At the same time, we have a rising weekly moving volume weighted average price and a rising five-day moving average. So while we look at this as a level of interest, just like we've looked at, you know, on the way down, we looked at the 20-day moving average as potential support, the 50-day moving average, the anchors from previous lows, the 200-day moving average.
None of those held. They were levels of interest until we had evidence. These are levels of interest on the upside until we see evidence of a breakdown.
And if we're not at least below the week-to-date volume-weighted average price, that's that black line, then we are still showing that buyers are here for the week. And we broke down ever so briefly just for a quick flash of a two-minute candle. And as I pointed out, a potential scenario for further selling was if we drop below it, rallied up.
and then found supply, then it would have been a short here. Instead, the buyers took back control and it closed pretty much, well, not near the highs of the day, but pretty close to it. So that leaves us unchanged for tomorrow, that these are going to be the key levels. If we break below and hold below this low right here, let's just call it 573.50 for more than 15, 20 minutes, then I think you'll see a little bit deeper pullback and you want to keep an anchor off of this low as a potential level of... where the buyers will rush back in because we also have the rising five-day moving average that will be in that approximate space.
The five-day moving average will be rising tomorrow because we'll be getting rid of this data. So that's how we have to look at the interplay. If you want to just short this market because it's at an anchor, that's silly.
It's a level of interest. That's all it is. I've never said it's a place to take action.
It's a level of interest only. The NASDAQ, same story. We're through that 20-day moving average.
We're bouncing. We've got, we can put some Fibonacci on here as well and see that, you know, we're not quite to the 38.2% retracement, a level of interest, nothing else. The 200-day moving average, a level of interest, nothing else.
Right now, though, we have higher lows above a rising week-to-date volume weighted average price with a rising five-day moving average. So trying to get short in here just does not make sense. As I said this morning, first thing.
About 45 minutes after the market opened, I said, look for, you know, anyone who's calling the anchored VWAP from the high resistance is an amateur. They don't know what they're talking about. That's not the way it works.
The levels get probed and then we see if it backs away from it that it was maybe in fact resistance. But that evidence did not materialize. Wait for the evidence. The Russell 2000 came up to the anchor off of this peak and found some supply. Does that mean it's resistance?
Well, so far, as long as we're below this low, excuse me, lower high, in the bigger picture, lower high, it's actually a higher, it's not quite a lower high yet. This is a lower high. We did break some support in here briefly at the end of the day.
If we pull back into here, you know, do you want to short this market? We've got a rising five day moving average. We've got a rising week today, month to date volume weighted average price.
It's just a difficult environment. If you're having a hard time, it's because it's a difficult market. That's it.
It's not because you're not in the right stocks or you're not, you know, maybe you're not trading well also. But, you know, anytime you're in this situation, you should be trading smaller size and semiconductors up to this prior band of support. They're at the two-year anchor.
We have a declining 20-day moving average, but we're above the anchor from Friday's low. We are above the five-day moving average. So. If we get some little, you know, and today we saw a little bit of profit taking from this recent rally here of the last couple of days, and we're seeing lower highs and lower lows on the very short term.
But let's see how it behaves here. Maybe this market still has some buyers and it's going to go all the way up to the 50 day moving average in year to date anchor. If that happens, well, how does that change our weekly picture? Does that change that? Not really.
This is, again, not a prediction, but a scenario that seems likely. Unless the market rallies up to those levels, accepts prices there, and then continues to move higher. It's possible.
I don't think it's as likely, but now we're kind of getting into a more neutral-ish zone if we can get back above in this area. But we're not there. Biotechs, they continue to just be a waste of time, costing people money.
There is no relative strength here. People who bought the breakout got exactly what they deserve for chasing. And that's not a new message for me.
That's something I consistently say. Ask yourself, how did this so-called breakout occur? It was already extended as it got there.
And then it failed. If you were involved, your worst case stop should have gone under there. It's back into this dead range within a downtrend, so no interest there.
Financials, I don't know what's driving them. It doesn't really matter to me because I'm not involved. But again, higher highs and higher lows. Look at how the lower highs and lower lows transition to higher highs and higher lows.
Think about the mentality of maybe yourself or your prior self of buying the dip and getting excited about all these stupid little rallies below a declining five-day moving average. Now think about the people trying to pick the top and getting excited about the stupid little pullbacks that are occurring above a rising 5-day moving average. Why do people want to fight the trend? Don't fight the trend. The 5-day moving average is your best friend for that.
Energy names, same thing as this afternoon. We're above a rising 5-day moving average and we're in a bigger range. So nothing interesting going on in there.
Tesla had a little bit of follow through here today. It pulled back to the two day anchor and then buyers reemerged in there. It was a little bit choppy in there today, but there were great opportunities if you were paying attention. And, you know, we had in particular in the afternoon, two perfect little pullbacks to daily VWAP. The first one didn't materialize too much, but it never undercut that low.
And the second one, a beautiful rally here. So, you know, these are the types of names you keep an eye on. in particular if you're a day trader. Palantir, it just seems to be running out of gas up in here.
I wouldn't short it. That wasn't my message this afternoon. My message this afternoon was maybe it pulls back, but because it's above a rising five-day moving average, you wouldn't short it.
You'd just be looking at it saying, okay, we're getting a little bit of a pullback. Not a reason for concern and not a surprise as it's gone from 75 to 100. It's just rallied 33% here. So certainly at least a time correction, if not a deeper price correction, seems likely here. But with a rising five-day moving average, with a rising 20 and a rising 50-day moving average, do you want to short this? I don't.
SMCI, as I mentioned, completely failed. No reason to be interested in that one. That's back into the gutter. And NVIDIA, just kind of a neutral day here.
I don't see anything special going on in NVIDIA.