Fantasy Football: Importance of Running Backs

Key Concepts

• Running Back Position

  • Considered highly important in Fantasy Football.
  • Not as deep as the wide receiver position.
  • Focus on finding 'league-winning' running backs.

• League-Winning Running Backs

  • Players drafted in later rounds but significantly exceed expectations.
  • Boost fantasy team production more than early-round picks.

Strategy for Identifying League-Winning Running Backs

• Use of Math and Probabilities

  • Acknowledge the role of luck in Fantasy Football.
  • Set up best chances by understanding probabilities similar to lottery strategies.

• Historical Analysis

  • Reviewing past years to identify patterns.
  • Look at the probability of players drafted outside top rounds finishing in top positions.

Historical Findings (2020-2023)

• Analysis of Past Seasons

  • Each year, 5 RBs drafted outside round 2 finish in the top 12.
  • 28 of the 48 top 12 running backs in the last four seasons were drafted inside the first two rounds.

• Draft Rounds and Success Rates

  • Rounds 3-4: 25% success rate.
  • Rounds 5-8: 45% success rate.
  • Rounds 9-12: 10% success rate.
  • Post-Round 13: 20% success rate.

Focus for 2024 Drafts

• Rounds 5-8
  • Highest probability for finding league-winning running backs.
  • Potential candidates (current ADP):
    • Aaron Jones
    • James Connor
    • David Montgomery
    • Rhamondre Stevenson
    • DeAndre Swift
    • Zamir White
    • Najee Harris
    • Tony Pollard

Criteria for Evaluation

• Key Metrics for Top 12 Finish

  • 1300 total yards
  • 9 total touchdowns
  • 40 receptions
  • Approx. 260 touches

• Considerations

  • Evaluate potential for touches and role in their team's backfield.
  • Consider historical performances, health, and team dynamics.

Ranked Candidates (Based on Touch Potential)

1. Tony Pollard
2. Aaron Jones
3. James Connor
4. Rhamondre Stevenson
5. Najee Harris
6. David Montgomery
7. Zamir White
8. DeAndre Swift

Conclusion

• Approach

  • Use a systematic approach to identify potential breakout candidates.
  • Focus on rounds 5-8 based on historical data.

• Engagement and Community

  • Call to action for viewer interaction (likes, comments).
  • Encouragement to think differently about player evaluation in Fantasy Football.