running back is arguably the most important position when it comes to Fantasy Football the position just isn't as deep as the wide receiver position that's why during your fantasy football drafts you need to be focused on finding those League winning running backs now I could just sit here today and spit some facts on a few players and then call it a day but I really want to do more than that I want to give you the viewer some of the Insight on how I go about finding League winning running backs each and every year now if you been here for any length of time you know I like a few things one is math the other is probabilities I love to play the probabilities and I say that because if you're being honest with yourself there's a lot of luck that goes into fantasy football because I really want to set myself up to have the best possible chances at drafting the right draft picks in the right rounds it's kind of like playing the lottery right if you buy one ticket your chance next to none if you buy a butt ton of tickets you have a better chance at winning something so if you're ready to be damn mind blown here today do me a favor and hit the like button and I'll tell you why because if this video can get over 1,500 likes I'm giving away an autograph Devonte Adams mini helmet the salute to service mini helmet here you can see the signature right on the helmet so if we can get, 1500 likes or more on this video I'm going to pick a random commenter from down below and I'm just going to give them that for free so hit the like button leave your comments below and let's dive into Today's Show and I want to start off by defining what is a league winning running back so many people want to look at their picks in the first couple of rounds rounds one and two and call those players a League winner if they pop off but they really aren't they were drafted super high which means they have high expectations they're supposed to score a lot of points for your fantasy football team in my opinion A League winner is a guy that you get a little bit later that massively out produces expectations and greatly boost the production of your fantasy team so today we're going to look at a little bit of History because history is the best indicator for what we could see going forward so if we can find the probability that has the greatest chance of Landing a league winning running back we can kind of narrow down our list of running backs here in 2024 that kind of fall into that category I if you understand what I'm talking about do me a favor leave # same page down below in the comment section so I know you understand now on average each and every year there are five running backs that are drafted outside of the second round that still finish top 12 at the position so let's go ahead and let's go look at the past four years let's go back to 2020 and when we do that the first thing you notice is there's a lot of names that really aren't a thing anymore so the final top 12 running backs in 2020 were Alvin Kamar Derrick Henry Dalvin cook David Montgomery Aaron Jones Jonathan Taylor James Robinson Josh Jacobs Nick chub Kareem hunt Zeke Elliot and Antonio Gibson now you can also see that there were five running backs that year that were drafted after the second round that still finished top 12 like David Montgomery Jonathan Taylor James Robinson Kareem hunt and Antonio Gibson that was the year where if you were a member of the channel we told you about James Robinson in the off season a lot of people benefited from that but then we move on to 2021 and here's where we had the top 12 finishers of Jonathan Taylor Austin Eckler Joe mix Naji Harris James Connor Zeke Elliott Leonard forette Alvin Kamar cordal Patterson Antonio Gibson Nick chub and Aaron Jones in 2021 there were three running backs that were drafted outside of the second round that finished inside the top 12 it was James Connor lonard forette and cordal Patterson now we fast forward to 2022 the top 12 finishers Austin Eckler Christian mcaffrey Josh Jacobs Derk Henry Nick chubs saquan Barkley Tony Pard Jamal Williams Aaron Jones dvin cook raand re Steven season and Joe Mixon now in 2022 there were four running backs that were drafted outside of the second round that finished top 12 Josh Jacobs Tony Pard Jamal Williams and Rand Dre Stevenson then we go on to last year where we had a whopping what is this 1 2 3 4 five 6 seven eight running backs that were drafted outside the second round that finished top 12 the most in recent history the final finishers were Christian mcaffrey Raheem moer Travis etn Bree Hall Joe Mixon Kiren Williams Rashad white Derk Henry bjan Robinson jir Gibbs James Cook and saquan Barkley now after going through all of that you will notice that 28 of the 48 top 12 running backs over the last four seasons were all drafted inside the top two rounds and then finished inside the top 12 so you will hear all the time on not just fantasy football YouTube but In Articles how uh running backs they just bust too early you don't want running backs early all they do is bust 28 of 48 have not over the last four seasons so that is not at all true but remember the purpose of this show we're not worried about the top two rounds rounds one and two here mean absolutely nothing today so here's where we start getting into a little bit of percentages and probabilities if we do that with the remaining 20 running backs who finished inside the top 12 over the last four years here is the rounds in which they were drafted 25% of them in rounds three and four 45% of them in rounds 5 to 8 10% of them in rounds 9 through 12 and then another 20% after round 13 so this right here tells me that I really need to focus on rounds 5 through eight because that is where the highest probability of finding a league winning running back is so now what do we do well let's go to the consensus ADP and see what running backs are currently going in that round 5 to8 range and there are 17 of them it's Aaron Jones James Connor David Montgomery Rand re Stevenson DeAndre Swift zamir white Naji Harris Raheem moard Zach Moss Tony par Jaylen Warren Nick chub Devin single ter Jonathan Brooks Austin Eckler Brian Robinson Jr and javante Williams now if you remember earlier on I said on average there are five running backs after round two that finish in the top 12 each and every year Well if rounds 5 through eight produced almost 50% of those theoretically that means that out of this list that is on the screen right now two to three of these guys could be potential League winning running backs so we've already narrow down a huge chunk of names but now let's take a look at this season and really realistically determine who has the best chance here now on average the running back 12 overall on the season scores 200 106 fantasy points per year in half PPR scoring that means that a running back is going to need right around 1300 total yards nine total touchdowns and at least 40 receptions to finish inside the top 12 now typically the running backs in the NFL average right around five yards per touch so in order for them to hit 1,300 total yards they're going to need around 260 total touches to get there when we have this list on the screen are there any running backs that we see that could have trouble hitting that 260 Touch number and honestly yeah there's quite a few the first one is Raheem moer and I love the guy I love his price tag but he's in a three-way backfield split and his career high in touches is only 234 what about Zach Moss he's never been the guy all season long he struggled to stay healthy at times plus we love Chase Brown in that back field as well what about Jaylen Warren not taking anything away from the guy but his career high is 210 touches a season and Naji Harris is still going to get a chunk of volume in this offense what about Nick chub y'all know I love Nick chub but he's coming off a serious injury is he going to hit 260 touches it's going to be tough Devin single ter his career high is 246 and no one expects the New York Giants to be some big-time running team this year what about Jonathan Brooks he's coming off an injury into his rookie year to a team that's not great Austin Eckler sure he's seen this number before but now he's going to have a lesser role in Washington with a split backfield with the next guy we can talk about which is Brian Robinson sure he's going to get the bulk of the Carries On early downs but Austin Eckler is going to have a role and that's going to eat into the total touches that each one of these guys see and then javante Williams this team is just going to have bad quarterback play all all year long they're going to be trailing they're not going to be able to run much and it's not like javante Williams is the only guy in this backfield 260 may be a little bit high for him so let's go ahead and remove those guys since we think it's going to be hard for them to get that type of volume that leaves us a list with these eight running backs Aaron Jones James Connor David Montgomery raand re Stevenson DeAndre Swift zamir white Naji Harris and Tony Pard now obviously we want a couple studs still in the first couple of rounds but after that I'm trying to get one if not two of these guys that are left on the list because now that we've narrowed it down we kind of have an idea of which guys to take a stab on now in case you're wondering this is how I currently have these running backs ranked for this season even though they're all pretty close to each other it goes Tony Pard Aaron Jones James Connor raand re Stevenson Naji Harris David Montgomery zamir white and Deandre Swift I love that Tony Pard is going to have a quote unquote lesser role this year in Tennessee sure he's going to split with tajj Spears but we've seen Tony Pard thrive in a little bit of a lesser role Aaron Jones everyone knows this with Aaron Jones if he's healthy and he's on the field he's probably going to be a top 12 running back as is James Connor has a great opportunity for massive volume this year but can he stay healthy because if he dwindles as the season progresses we could start seeing more rookie running back Trey Benson ra Andre Stevens season he just got paid in New England the problem is we have no idea how good New England is going to be are they going to be able to run the ball are we going to see a ton of checkdowns to raand re Stevenson does he lose some work to Antonio Gibson out of this backfield just a lot of questions Naji Harris honestly I made an analogy for Naji Harris a couple weeks ago where I compared him to vanilla ice cream it's boring it doesn't excite you but you put it on top of a damn warm Brownie and it's goated Naji Harris has a chance to put up some decent fantasy numbers this year even though everyone hates him David Montgomery I mean yeah he's splitting with jir Gibbs but he's on one of the best overall offenses in the league and you know he's going to get 15 touches a week zamir white I know Kyle doesn't love zamir white and honestly I don't love him either but in my opinion he is still massively underrated we've seen a very small sample size of what he could do all season long and Alexander Madison has disappointed numerous times throughout his NFL career zamir white may not get a ton of touchdown opportunities in this offense but could see some decent volume and then DeAndre Swift in Chicago when he's healthy and he touches the football he's electric we know this Chicago offense is going to be better this year than it has been in years past which means more touchdown opportunities the biggest issue here is he's in a crowded Back Field and we really can't rely on him getting all the goal line touches that and the guy's dealt with quite a few injuries in his past as well but the whole purpose of today's show is just to unlock your mind look at things a little bit differently take a systematic approach when you're trying to determine what players do you need to go after when all the top names are off the board now that I've kind of shown you how to do that you can go back and look at all the other running backs in the other rounds and really determine which guys do you need to go after now if you're out there and you enjoy learning how to do new things in fantasy football don't forget to hit the like button right now cuz as soon as we hit 1,500 likes I'm giving away this sign Devonte Adams mini helmet but I also want to know what you think Down Below in the comment section which one of these running backs that we talked about today can you see yourself targeting in your fantasy football drafts now I'm going to go ahead and get out here for the today hopefully you guys enjoy the rest of your day though and then most importantly above everything else do your part to make the world a better place [Music]