Lecture Notes: Thinking Like a Scientist

Key Concepts

• Preacher, Prosecutor, Politician Mindsets:
  • Preacher: Conviction in one’s own truth, focusing on spreading it.
  • Prosecutor: Focus on proving others wrong, winning arguments.
  • Politician: Seeking approval from others, not necessarily changing deeper beliefs.
• Drawbacks of These Mindsets:
  • Prevent questioning oneself or one's own beliefs.
  • Lead to confirmation bias, desirability bias, and overconfidence.

Thinking Like a Scientist

• Valuing the Pursuit of Knowledge: Prefer knowledge over consistency/pride.
• Importance of Challenging Beliefs: Excitement over discovering why one might be wrong.
• Surrounding Yourself with Challengers: Engaging with people that challenge your thought process.
• Listening to Difficult Opinions: Not just listening to agreeable opinions.

Case Studies and Real-World Examples

• Blackberry Example: Mike Lazaridis's shift in mindset.
  • Initial success due to scientific thinking.
  • Later overconfidence led to downfall (ignoring new trends like touchscreens).
• Entrepreneurs (Sarah Blakely and Reid Hoffman):
  • Confidence in Learning: Belief in ability to figure things out, not overconfidence in current capabilities.
  • Balanced Doubt and Confidence: Humility helps balance the two.

Teaching and Role Modeling

• Importance of Teaching How to Rethink: Great teachers teach students to think and rethink.
• Role Modeling Openness: Leaders and teachers admitting they don’t know everything encourages others to do the same.

Overcoming Analysis Paralysis

• Rethinking Doesn't Always Mean Changing: Being open to reconsider without the need to always change.
• Regular Reflective Practices: Career check-ups to reassess job satisfaction and alignment with goals.

Encouraging Rethinking in Others

• Asking for Advice: Flattering individuals and inviting different perspectives.
• Understanding Higher-ups' Insecurities: Being conscious of what people in power value.

Competence vs. Likability

• Relying on Competent but Unlikable: Most tend to favor confidence over likability.
• Rational Bias: Favoring rational abilities can sometimes overlook the importance of soft skills and interpersonal relationships.

Cultural Norms and Disagreement

• Agreeableness: Canadians known for high agreeableness.
• Encouraging Disagreement: Disagree without being disagreeable (softened criticism).

Motivational Interviewing

• Technique: Ask open-ended questions to understand the other’s viewpoint better.
• Curiosity Over Agenda: Aim to understand, not necessarily to change minds immediately.

Simplicity vs. Complexity

• Elegant Simplicity: Recognize complexity but find clear, simple truths within it.
• Confidence in Uncertainty: Acknowledge best current evidence while being open to new information.

Final Insights

• Bias Blind Spot: Recognize one's own biases (e.g., thinking