so thanks for being as Adam said the in 2010 I was able to predict 35 of the 37 gubernatorial races and then last year in 2014 it was sorry 34 of the 36 races and on an average of four month four to four months out this time three months out last time the reason for that is there's a target effect on the voter and so worried we were able to look and profile different candidates and see what their target effect would eventually be on the voters when they started to really ramp up that are um you know with the debates and getting visuals in front in front of the candidates so no matter how the the polls went we were able to say standard in terms of what our prediction would be and the reason why that's important in business is we have those target effects in business right whether we're getting an interview whether we're selling to somebody whether we're making a presentation all these things are affected greatly by how we appear both in our appearance in our body language and how we if we can set the environment and so we're going to look at all three of those things here today now another thing I want to talk about here if you look at in 2002 George Bush was able to beat John Kerry and a lot of people were confused and in 2012 Obama President Obama beat Mitt Romney and people were confused and you know why both won because you may or may not have agreed with them but with Bush and Obama you knew what they were saying they believed and with Kerry and Romney nobody was necessarily sure that what they said they believed and so when you're in an interaction with someone there you will leak your nonverbal behavior unconscious behavior will give away that your words right and your body language are not congruent or transparent and so people they know why but they'll feel confused and want to withdraw from that interaction but if they are congruent they're going to believe you won't want to be a part of that interaction with you so more important than anything else that we'll talk about today is if you are honest and transparent that's the most important piece of any of nonverbal communication so one of the things that we know is that people will make decisions instinctually and emotionally and then justify them with reason right so we'll go with really you only need a car with four wheels right but people will will buy a car emotionally and then justify why they need to have all these added features all right so as I said we're gonna look at a parent's environment and body language okay so let's take a look at appearance first here oh sorry you're gonna see President Obama and this is his first State of the Union now what we notice here is that the president has this kind of blue tie on which would indicate kind of this future based thinking and then you see Joe Biden with a striped tie on and a striped tie wearing a striped tie with a leader wearing a solid ties suggests deference to the leader and then John Boehner has a pink tie on and you know Republican messages are often can come across as aggressive but pink will soften that message and so let's fast forward right seven years to last January and the present seventh State of the Union and what do you see Joe Biden wearing a striped tie the president wearing his future based dye and John Boehner wearing a pink tie and if you look at all of the all the state of the unions in between it's very similar there was one time that Joe Biden or a solid tie and I think he was just confused on his way and you didn't get the memo necessarily for that day and now one of the things that we know is for men right it's the tie that is the message and for women it's the whole outfit and that I also want to say I am NOT a fashion expert and so what I'm going to talk about today are what's important with persuasion so these are persuade if you want to persuade people these are the things you want to use okay and in terms of fashion that's a completely different animal and I would let other people deal with that now this picture here how many people are familiar with this story right so this is the host of The Today Show in Australia and his counterpart was a woman and she was getting a lot of flack for all the outfits that she was wearing and so what he decided to do was wear the same suit every day for a year and only change is tie and no one noticed so again you know for men it's easier with the tie it can be more difficult for women but when a woman gets it no man is really going to beat her so if you look at again persuasion let's take a look at Hillary Clinton right people don't necessarily notice how especially in politics people will wear women especially will wear the same color suit and it's the full suit and the color is the message that they want to want to communicate and so for the purpose of this presentation we're just going to take a look at and compare two colors maroon and red okay so here you see the tie is maroon and with Hillary Clinton you see the maroon outfit now if we compare that now the maroon is very much a credibility color and so if you watch some of the sunday shows or talking heads on the news you're gonna see that they're gonna have white or a light blue shirt and a maroon tie alright or a maroon outfit and here you want to look at red right which is a brighter color and it's more about attraction and you see Hillary Clinton wearing the bright red outfit now let's compare the two you can see the difference but also when she wants to be credible she doesn't wear lipstick what she wants to be attractive she's got the bright lipstick as well so these things are you know they don't decide this they're people decide right because they're trying to figure out the message for that event now one of the things if we look at you know every ex-president or current president in the television age Kennedy Johnson Nixon Carter Reagan Bush 41 Clinton Bush 43 and President Obama when the message is important and they need to come across as credible they're gonna wear this one of the questions I often get well okay that's America what about the rest of the world well unless you're moammar qaddafi right who wears all these different outfits if you're a world leader and the message is important you're gonna wear the important uniform okay so now let's talk a little bit about environment and what's important to know about environment is you can control so many things about the environment whether it's sound whether it's smell whether it's color whether it's the furniture whether it's moveable or it's not moveable and you can predict outcomes based on how you negotiate or are able to set up that environment how many people have driven by a McDonald's and smelled the fries right now do you think that in 2015 we have the technology today to have filters to block that smell right they want that smell to go out because there's a certain amount of people who will drive by and go in and buy the fries that's why it's there they're controlling the environment as much as they can the other thing about fast food restaurants is as much as they want you to come in they also want you to get out so they have plastic furniture and the seats are often 10 degrees because they don't necessarily want you to be comfortable and they want you to move through now during the Vietnam War or as it was as it was ending they they had you know peace negotiations now before the peace negotiations even started it took eight months to negotiate the tape the type of table in the seating why because both realize that in a negotiation where people sit and the type of table that's used can greatly affect the outcome so let's take a look at where a leader would sit we look here you know people will often say oh three or one or five well actually it's both if you want to come across as a socially intelligent leader you're going to go with number three if you need it to deliver an authoritative message it's going to be one or five now if we look here right we look here and you know there's one two three four five the leader wants to sit at four or five why because there's more eyes on that person and so people will be more deferential just to people sitting in those positions but what's interesting and what people if you need to to set up a table where people are going to be observing or debates where there's multiple candidates the observers will also see four or five as the leader and so that's important in terms of negotiating and voters now in the US everybody kind of gets that in in foreign countries it's usually only the candidate who can afford to hire us-based impotant and so people are wondering why they want four or five and they and they get it so that's that's that you know that we touched on the environment now let's take a look at body language okay now what I said before your nonverbal communication needs to be congruent with your words if it is not it doesn't matter what you do unconscious the unconscious messages that you will send will create confusion with the person or people that you're interacting with and they're going to want to withdraw from situation I know I said that before and I want to hit that home because it's an extremely important point um if we look here as I said words can be a reason but body language conveys instinct and emotion and this is what people will give more credibility to right when they're judging you as a person now there are seven messages that are communicated non-verbally credibility and openness and then there's superiority disinterest insecurity defensive miss and deceit now when I was a student here I used to watch for that and my professors and now as I hear I look courting my students and and the interesting thing is you know both deliver both the credibility and openness and then also the bottom ones as well now if you look at these two politicians again christine Gregoire the one on the left is the she has been the governor of the state of Washington and one of the things I did when I when I looked at all my fill up developing the algorithm to predict the elections I've watched every single debate a gubernatorial debate the second place in the United States since 1998 and so she is probably the best right or one of the very best and then of course the president as well as one of the best but I think what I want to show you is some of the things that they do right that amplify they're congruent methods so if you see the top part the top picture which they're both doing you know this is this from the heart gesture it's not coming out at somebody or being aggressive saying how dare you versus how dare you and you feel the different emotions that are communicated with those behaviors the next isn't authoritative but not aggressive you know finger and thumb together we should absolutely do it this way versus we should absolutely do it this way the next and what you'll find is that you know winning politicians or winning businesspeople will never do this with their hands when they're at rest and watch for this they will pretend that they're holding a ball right this is where and I know it you know everybody do this for a second it can feel uncommon can feel uncomfortable but once you do it a number of times you become unconsciously competent it it communicates the message that you know what you're talking about and you have a master of the subject and then the next is whether it's two hands or one this chopping gesture and you don't want to do that in the beginning but you want to do that at the end of your interaction once you've built some rapport which allows you to suggest that you know what you're talking about and this is the way we should move forward versus creating a barrier I absolutely think this is the way we need to go versus I absolutely think this is the way we need to go and you feel the difference so I do want to take talk a little bit about 2016 and first before I go there I'm gonna tell you about a mistake I made in 2012 so after as I said I had watched all the gubernatorial debates since 1998 and of the people on the Republican side I thought John Huntsman would be the person who would be you know who would be the next president knighted States and you know the president was also a little bit concerned so he sent it to China as the ambassador but he did come back to run and but what I what I didn't realize is that what it takes to win the nomination and what it takes to win the general election are two separate things and so the the nomination is more about who you know and the general election is more about how you communicate so let's look at 2016 and I would say having looked at and I'll give you this prediction is that looked at looking at Jeb Bush Hillary Clinton and all the other Joker's who who seemed to be running and I will say that if Jeb Bush is able to secure the nomination he'll clear the field and be the next president United States if he's not able to secure the nomination Hilary Clinton could probably be any other Republican candidate okay but if Jeb Bush wins I think it's I think it's over unless you know and I will make the caveat unless they see pictures of him with in compromising positions that he shouldn't necessarily be in so that's that's what I have to say today thank you very much