Geopolitical Challenges in Europe

Aug 7, 2024

Lecture on Geopolitical Challenges and Europe's Security Framework

Introduction

  • Topic: Continuation from morning panel on Europe Security
  • Focus: Integration or non-integration of the Western Balkans, role of military complex, adaptability to changing power balance

Key Questions

  • How can Europe adapt to and influence the changing Global Power Balance?
  • What are the risks and opportunities?
  • How might the incorporation of the Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova into the EU affect the security framework of Europe?

Panelists

  • Politicians, experts of international bodies, and academics
  • Notable figures: Vesna Pusić (Croatia), Mr. Vuk Jeremić (Serbia), Nano Rušin (North Macedonia)

Vesna Pusić’s Speech

  • Background: Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, candidate in UN Secretary-General elections, Professor at the University of Zagreb
  • Main Points:
    • Security was not a concern for EU initially; NATO was considered sufficient
    • Changing dynamics since 2008 (financial crisis, Crimea annexation, Trump's tenure)
    • Need for Europe to transform into a serious geopolitical player
    • Role of Western Balkans: Surrounded by EU territories but not integrated
    • Importance for EU security: Ideal for destabilizing Europe, border control, crime prevention
    • Missed opportunities in Western Balkans: Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania
    • Need to recognize the right moments for European integration

Vuk Jeremić’s Speech

  • Background: President of the Center of International Relations and Sustainable Development in Serbia
  • Main Points:
    • Critical year: 2008 (Kosovo’s unilateral Declaration of Independence, global financial crisis)
    • Challenges for EU accession of Western Balkans
    • Serbia’s stance on Kosovo: Independence is unacceptable
    • Neutrality of Serbia
    • Need for special status with the EU instead of full membership

Nano Rušin’s Speech

  • Background: Former ambassador of North Macedonia to NATO, author, and professor
  • Main Points:
    • Analyzing the war in Ukraine through various lenses: Samuel Huntington's conflict types, economic and geopolitical consequences
    • Potential scenarios: Ukraine and Russia's possible outcomes, uncontrolled escalation
    • Role of the EU: Diplomatic mediator, enhancing military and economic strategies
    • Impact on Western Balkans' stability: Divided loyalties, Russian influence

Alain Simonot’s Speech

  • Background: Formerly with the French defense ministry, OSC, now at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs
  • Main Points:
    • Comparing historical documents related to European security: Paris Charter (1990), EU Strategic Compass (2022), NATO Strategic Concept (2022)
    • Need to rebuild security architecture post-Ukraine war
    • Challenges and geographical scope
    • Possible frameworks: USC, European Political Community, bilateral talks

Nelly Kirilova’s Speech

  • Background: Doctoral student focusing on the Black Sea region and conflict prevention
  • Main Points:
    • Conflict as a competition for power between Regional players (EU, Russia, Turkey)
    • Measuring power perception through six elements: Security/Military, Economy/Investment, Energy/Climate, Diplomatic Relations, Governance/People, Information access
    • Analysis of foreign and security policy strategies of the EU, Russia, and Turkey
    • High conflict potential areas: Security, governance, information access
    • High cooperation potential areas: Economy, energy, diplomacy
    • Misperceptions can lead to conflicts; clarity needed

Discussion Points

  • Kosovo-Serbia Issue: Contentious debates, differing perspectives on Kosovo's status and independence
  • Reality in Western Balkans: Need for realistic and effective engagement, potential for EU to play a mediating role
  • Future Security Architecture: Necessity of a comprehensive and inclusive approach, considering various regional and global influences

Conclusion

  • Emphasis on cooperation, realistic perspectives, and proactive measures in addressing the geopolitical complexities and security issues in Europe and the Western Balkans.