Lecture on Geopolitical Challenges and Europe's Security Framework

Introduction

Topic: Continuation from morning panel on Europe Security
Focus: Integration or non-integration of the Western Balkans, role of military complex, adaptability to changing power balance

How can Europe adapt to and influence the changing Global Power Balance?
What are the risks and opportunities?
How might the incorporation of the Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova into the EU affect the security framework of Europe?

Politicians, experts of international bodies, and academics
Notable figures: Vesna Pusić (Croatia), Mr. Vuk Jeremić (Serbia), Nano Rušin (North Macedonia)

Background: Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, candidate in UN Secretary-General elections, Professor at the University of Zagreb
Main Points:
- Security was not a concern for EU initially; NATO was considered sufficient
- Changing dynamics since 2008 (financial crisis, Crimea annexation, Trump's tenure)
- Need for Europe to transform into a serious geopolitical player
- Role of Western Balkans: Surrounded by EU territories but not integrated
- Importance for EU security: Ideal for destabilizing Europe, border control, crime prevention
- Missed opportunities in Western Balkans: Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania
- Need to recognize the right moments for European integration

Background: President of the Center of International Relations and Sustainable Development in Serbia
Main Points:
- Critical year: 2008 (Kosovo’s unilateral Declaration of Independence, global financial crisis)
- Challenges for EU accession of Western Balkans
- Serbia’s stance on Kosovo: Independence is unacceptable
- Neutrality of Serbia
- Need for special status with the EU instead of full membership

Background: Former ambassador of North Macedonia to NATO, author, and professor
Main Points:
- Analyzing the war in Ukraine through various lenses: Samuel Huntington's conflict types, economic and geopolitical consequences
- Potential scenarios: Ukraine and Russia's possible outcomes, uncontrolled escalation
- Role of the EU: Diplomatic mediator, enhancing military and economic strategies
- Impact on Western Balkans' stability: Divided loyalties, Russian influence

Background: Formerly with the French defense ministry, OSC, now at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs
Main Points:
- Comparing historical documents related to European security: Paris Charter (1990), EU Strategic Compass (2022), NATO Strategic Concept (2022)
- Need to rebuild security architecture post-Ukraine war
- Challenges and geographical scope
- Possible frameworks: USC, European Political Community, bilateral talks

Background: Doctoral student focusing on the Black Sea region and conflict prevention
Main Points:
- Conflict as a competition for power between Regional players (EU, Russia, Turkey)
- Measuring power perception through six elements: Security/Military, Economy/Investment, Energy/Climate, Diplomatic Relations, Governance/People, Information access
- Analysis of foreign and security policy strategies of the EU, Russia, and Turkey
- High conflict potential areas: Security, governance, information access
- High cooperation potential areas: Economy, energy, diplomacy
- Misperceptions can lead to conflicts; clarity needed

Kosovo-Serbia Issue: Contentious debates, differing perspectives on Kosovo's status and independence
Reality in Western Balkans: Need for realistic and effective engagement, potential for EU to play a mediating role
Future Security Architecture: Necessity of a comprehensive and inclusive approach, considering various regional and global influences

Emphasis on cooperation, realistic perspectives, and proactive measures in addressing the geopolitical complexities and security issues in Europe and the Western Balkans.