Transcript for:
Geopolitical Challenges in Europe

[Music] having experienced the multifaceted morning panel it can be seen as a continuation this talk we are heading into since the geopolitical challenges and complexity that certainly involves Europe security but the monic perz is also partly touched upon here and there us and Europe or the role of the military complex in context of the war in Europe now we turn our attention uh with a deeper focus into Europe security from different angles uh addressing also the role of integration or non-integration of the western Balkan in this respect two of our panelist comes from this region as well as other panelists from East and Western Europe European EU member states some some questions are put on the table in what ways can Europe adapt to and influence the changing Global Power Balance what are the risk and opportunities and how might the incorporation of the western balans ukraina and mova into the EU affect the security framework of Europe we are really honored to have a very distinguished panel we have on the panel politicians Experts of international bodies and at the same time they are academics as well in political science security studies even we have similarities in the carer passes for example both our speaker West Na pusich and Mr wuk yich were Ministers of Foreign Affairs of their country Croatia and Serbia respectively and both were candidates in the official un Secretary General elections in 2016 when talking H with the panelist in person I could also mention that Nano rusin former ambassador of the that time uh Macedonia to the NATO was awarded the legion Anar from France and also wnap pusich uh was uh granted for her contribution to promote European goals um so uh we are planning as to the structure of the panel to start with our online panelist and uh then the three panelists here on uh in person and uh afterwards we open the floor for questions and answers um may I ask as a first Speaker wna pusich as I heard from my colleagues you were in geg during the 29 uh years of Summer University many years ago a couple of times so uh we are happy to welcome you back at least online this time and hope that you come uh sometimes again in the future so uh your his term as Minister of Foreign Affair and European Affairs ran from 2011 to 2016 and she has been elected to the Croatian Parliament for six terms she is also professor at the University of Zagreb and has authored several books and numerous articles in the in her field so Professor pich the floor is yours you are still muted uh uh can you un yeah if you be okay so again hello hello everybody uh I'm sorry I can't be uh there in in person but it's it is really great and an honor that you invited me uh as a panelist to discuss these issues that are uh close to I would say can you hear me yes yes yes it's fine can you hear okay because some something happened here I I thought you couldn't hear me but if you can um to discuss these issues that in my opinion are maybe as important now as they were 20 years ago when during the so-called big bang when when the first group of um East European countries joined the European Union uh it in a way the times has have changed so dramatically in the meantime that sometimes it looks as if you know that was in in another life uh security was not an issue uh as far as European Union is concerned uh it was considered sufficient to have NATO uh it was also considered primarily at that time there was still the the old uh saying uh I think by James Carville the the Clinton advisor it's the economy stupid so the economy was the big thing of the European Union and the big success and enlargement was a big success um all around and security was considered a done deal uh as far as Europe was concerned uh so much so that for in instance to this day there is no defense commissioner uh for within the commission of the European Union that of course has all been changing I would say since 2008 2007 2008 the big financial crisis but then dramatically uh on one level 2014 annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine by the Russians and then of course the allout invasion of and Russia's war on Ukraine that was maybe one aspect and the other aspect was the the tenure of former president Donald Trump in America that also showed that this Alliance that everybody thought was absolutely unquestionable the alliance between between the European Union and the United States and the the NATO security umbrella is not necessarily as unchangeable as we used to think before Trump so we are in a situation in which Europe which we thought was again to start with I would say it's the best project Europeans definitely Europeans ever had maybe it's one of the best projects ever uh that for many years looked like the place of stability and security and I think we have now reached a time when in many ways Europe also needs us and it's not only that we need Europe and can rely on Europe but we can we also need to of take care of Europe it's our project it's something that that um sort of guarantees a certain level of Human Rights rule of law accountability decency of government all kinds of things that are sort of disappearing in front of our eyes globally and if we want to regain it or maintain it I think we need to be aware of the fact that it's not just you know getting something out of Europe it's maintaining this project because none of us are big enough to play any significant role even countries like Germany and France to play play any significant role globally without this uh European context in a world in which Europe God forbid but if Donald Trump is elected again which is not completely impossible or though increasingly hopefully unlikely uh Europe can find itself uh between or among three autocracies the Russian the Chinese and the American and therefore Europe has to start thinking seriously about its own security and about sort of its own capacity to transform itself into a serious geopolitical player as you remember Ursula F the lane in her first mandate when she uh put together the commission said this is going to be a geopolitical commission well it hasn't been in such a huge geopolitical commission but now it seriously needs to be a a geopolitical commission and Europe has to sort of come to this this point where it actually plays an important role and becomes as they say a real player and not just a payer how does Western Balkans figure in this whole project Western Balkans is a sort of strange term invented for the countries uh in the Balkans or in Southeastern Europe that are surrounded by European territory but are not members of uh the European Union until first of of July 2013 Croatia was Western Balkans after that it became European union and now you have six members of this group Western Balkans it is not even uh European an it's European courtroom it's European Courtyard sorry not courtroom but Courtyard in the sense that it's surrounded by Europe European territory at the same time it's sort of been left on the sidelines for for many years the original idea in Tessalon in 2003 that all these countries will become members of the European Union resulted only with Slovenia and Croatia becoming members of the European Union and for the rest of the countries they're sort of in the in this EU waiting room were their political I would say uh leaderships climat uh aspirations uh even public opinion has changed over these many years over over the years while they were in the waiting room why does this Courtyard non-eu Courtyard of the European Union why does it matter it matters because first of all it's an ideal territory for destabilizing Europe and Russia's influence in these countries has been focused not so much and not primarily on uh D destabilizing these countries as such because that isn't their Prim primary objective here but it has been focused primarily on through destabilizing this region destabilizing European Union because in that sense Western Balkans is an ideal area to even historically and certainly at the moment to per permanently and perpetually destabilize Europe uh this region is also important for the European Union because it's in many ways a border are area and an area that could provide security in terms of people smuggling uh not to speak about Armament smuggling and in general sort of this trans trans and international uh C crime uh that Finds Its its uh basis in this region and in this area potentially uh that's so close to Europe but not actually part of Europe uh it can also become a territory with that's from which people are immigrating into European union and many young people from this region have actually decided to join the European Union individually and simply travel into Europe and that of course has effects on stability security and political profile of the countries in in this region um it is also by actually having waited for so many so many years it has also given rise to different populist politics and populist uh leaders that then of course can influence uh European politics in many different ways I would say that Western Balkans has been it maybe now looks as sort of an area that is very difficult to would be difficult to integrate not because there are so many people there because they're not but because there are so many presidents and prime ministers in other words there with uh small population you have six new members of the European Council which is the of course the the key decision making or would have key decision making body of the European Union in the meantime of course um the atmosphere in these six countries has changed but one thing that happened is that over the years there were times there were moments that were absolutely right for making the big progress towards uh European membership and for these countries that's important because it's not it doesn't only mean becoming member of a nice club of rich countries it also means or I would say it primarily means State Building means that you can actually uh use the the collective experience of of uh Europe EU member states and speed up building institutions uh putting in place procedures and making States more stable predictable and ready for for rule of law unfortunately these moments that you have and I call this the tale of small tragedies because you have for all the six countries over the past 20 years you had moments when they were right and when they were ready and when a lot of things were doable that today look absolutely you know sort of a distant Shore and I will just very fast go through some examples Bosnia heroina today the key problem uh secessionist polit politics of milera doic Miler doik was brought in as a western sort of Ally who was very different until let's say 2010 so from 2000 from 1998 when he came in to 2010 there were different opportunities where Bosnia heroa could have been moved uh forward were its Constitution could have been changed which as you probably know has been and still is appendix for of the Dayton peace agreement uh which is a a little strange for a country to have for so many years a constitution that is an appendix to a peace agreement so there are times when this was doable today doic is a serious obstacle and the question how to approach that becomes a completely different question from what it was let's say in 2010 or before before that the period between uh during the Mandate of uh assassinated prime minister jingit where it could have moved forward very fast and also so that was early 2000s and also the early years of prime Min ministership of current president vuic for instance when they started negotiations in 2014 uh the public opinion was in the 70s or even yeah very very high support for membership in the European Union today it's in the 30s so this becomes a much bigger problem Montenegro between before the elections of 2020 not to go into details Macedonia North Macedonia of course after the Presa agreement that was missed uh Kosovo I would say for Kosovo the time is now it's really carpedm they have uh non-corrupt leadership at the moment and the time to make a move is is right now and Albania somehow was left on the sidelines completely uh unjust justifiably and unjust unjustly but it somehow uh was nobody's priority may I say it's about two minutes now I will stop I will stop here I just say wanted to say add that I'm listing uh all these missed opportunities not to cry over them but to say that it is extremely important to be able to notice the right moment for Europe to become a player and for future members to make the crucial step forward and if we miss that that can cost us security and that can cost us decades inst stability thank you very much thank you very much uh your closing point was a very important point and uh uh let me go further and uh I would like to intr roduce uh Mr vuki arich who is currently president of the center of international relations and sustainable development in Serbia with a seat uh both in Belgrade and New York if I am well informed you are joining us now from New York um and just uh U over the weekend I came across uh uh by an other research of an article of Andre cunov who was a speaker at see different events uh uh of I ask uh in 2019 also in person uh and uh it appeared in the paper uh in 24 um winter which you are the chief editor of so the world is really small and that's I ask main name to give platform uh to discussions of uh very experienced academics and and and speakers uh mrich apart from the credentials I was was already mentioned in the beginning is professor at of practice at science po Paris School of International Affairs where he's teaching a full graduate course introduction to contemporary geopolitics uh so um the floor is yours and we are looking forward to your contribution well thank you very much for this most kind introduction uh it's great honor for me to be for the first time for of the K summer University I apologize for not being able to make it in prison I promise next year um that I'd be uh capable of coming in person um warm greetings from uh New York uh I'm actually uh at a hotel in New York which is on um 50th uh Street and Third Avenue and uh my good friend vest probably knows about the hotel because it's a little bit like a a balcon place uh in New York it's not too far away from the United Nations it is um owned by a family from Montenegro that is half Bosnian and half Albanian and most of the staff that works in the hotel are from um either former Yugoslavia or Albania and everybody knows everybody and during the UN high level week most of national delegations from uh the former Yugoslavia they're staying in this hotel everybody's very friendly uh uh everybody's uh friendly here in the hotel even when on the East River itself uh the situation is somewhat diplomatically tense uh between um some of us so uh when my friends from America come and uh you know have a cup of coffee with me here in the hotel when they see how we're like all getting along very well with each other they're saying oh well you are completely out of the woods when it comes to relations in the balcans and it must be very Harmon harmonious and very stable uh but as we know the situation on the ground in the Balkans isn't really ideal these days and um in general for those who are not from uh the bans on this uh on this panel um I don't know how many of you are outside but I'll assume that there are people who are outside um the region the balans always looks as if it is uh very tense and on a brink of a disaster and the disaster is usually avoided it rarely happens although when it does happen the consequences uh could be quite uh catastrophic and dramatic and the last time the last period uh of such drama was um in the 1990s where we had a very bloody wars uh of Yugoslav succession military outside military interventions and so on and so forth uh and then came the year 2000 the year of great hope uh the year of um reinstalling democracy in most of the especially in my country uh and Serbia uh I was um I was a student at that time I I still I'm very proud to being part of this uh great historical development and uh and the opening of an era uh in which Sky really seemed to have been the limit those were the good days if you will when it comes to multilateralism when it comes to uh International uh ceration not just in the balans but throughout the world and um these eight years that followed in Vesna mention uh those uh eight years uh where I I would say a very very big opportunity uh for the Balkans and and and some of uh the countries some of the Nations and the balans uh made a a good use of the this uh era of you know everything being possible and Sky being the limit and money not being an issue uh and uh and some have had um difficulties inherit it from uh the 90s not exactly treated uh perfectly uh well in my opinion by the leading actors of The International Community um Serbia um had um uh democratic governments uh led by Mr jingit who uh was sadly assassinated uh just couple of years after assuming power and then the democratic government of Mr konit signed it then a Democratic Leadership um of Mr Tage uh that prioritized for you who remember those time uh Serbia's accession to the European Union uh not necessarily to Nato um there I have some disagreements with westar's assessment you know in Serbia when you uh say nato it's uh security is not the very first thing that comes to mind uh at least not in a very positive way uh given the history uh of the 1990s and uh and how the century ended with the intervention in Kosovo uh but I would say that the year 2008 uh was uh The crucial year uh for when it comes to the future of the balans or the Western balans if you will and that is uh because two uh significant developments uh happened and uh most of uh the challenges uh that we're now facing uh can be related directly or indirectly to this uh developments in 2008 of of course these developments in 2008 did not come from the Blue Sky because history is a is a very long stream of intertwined and interconnected events uh but 2008 two things which I'd like to emphasize uh where the unilateral Declaration of Independence uh by the authorities in tra um declaring the um independent so-called U kovo and the way that uh a number of actors in particular um Euro Atlantic actors uh decided to embrace this uh or actually encouraged actively encouraged and engineered this development uh was going to prove to be crucial for for the prospects of uh the Balkans being integrated in the European Union even today and the second thing which was not so much to do with us actually not at all to do with us it was uh the onset of the global financial crisis uh which uh came uh as a blizzard engulfed the whole world and Europe uh felt it uh very very significantly as it opened the door to the uh the Greek crisis the debt crisis the crisis of the north versus the South and this was the time again to uh to lean on what Vesna said um paraphrasing paraphrasing U Carval for Clinton it's the economy stupid well this was the moment of Reckoning when it became kind of obvious that uh it's not just the economy stupid uh that uh the way uh you do Financial transactions the way you expand economically the way you uh conduct globalization or um divide the fruits of globalization within a nation within a continent or globally uh that uh it actually comes at a cost it comes with a flip side uh that social developments triggered by the uh uh financial crisis of Europe in 200 8 and Then followed by the migrant crisis of 2015 and brexit and all other sorts of things uh that made the European continent look uh less of a fairy tale and a harmonious place than back uh in the early 2000s prior 2008 uh things started to change it affected various Western Balan countries uh but not identically um Kisha for instance uh managed to complete the process of uh EU accession and became uh EU member in 2013 but I think that um the bucket uh stopped there because of uh The Impossible way in which the statehood of so-called Kosovo um was tried to be uh pushed upon or pressed upon Serbia and doesn't really matter which government you have in Serbia at that time I was in the government and Mr Tadich was the leading political actor in Serbia as I said very enthusiastic about the future of Serbia in the European Union then our government change in 2012 irregardless I mean of who runs Serbia what kind of government you have in Serbia what kind of priorities Serbian government uh sets forth uh accepting agreeing to uh independence of Kosovo that was declared unilaterally back in 2008 is simply not going to be accepted ever by anybody running Serbia that constitutes a very significant problem for the European future of Serbia and for that matter for much of the rest of the region now to cut a long story short and I'm sure there are going to be questions uh after we all finish um I think that uh Western balans will not join the European Union uh when I say Western Balkans all five or I don't know how many uh countries depends on the count depends on how you treat Kosovo uh I think that none of us are going um to be in a position to take a seat uh at the European Council to have a veto power at the European Council uh European Union is not ready to uh have these five or six uh seat additional seats at the table at least not for as long uh as the decision making uh system uh is such that it has a national veto uh and all other uh things like uh deciding on the budget and so on and so forth so um everybody who's uh serious I would say uh in uh in Serbia at least uh knows this uh some people are not willing to say it aloud uh some people for some people it's just simply not uh politically correct to say such a thing but if you talk we keep a little decision makers sorry yeah I I was just thinking that maybe we keep a little bit also for questions uh uh uh because there will be also uh an an approach from North Macedonia so we are going through the panel and then no problem I am I'm I'm I'm very used to being interrupted when I say that we're not going to become member of so I pass on the mic to our friend from northern Macedonia I look forward to question and then we sent to France Austria and so uh it's really very good that we have an approach from everywhere and uh some of you asked actually as far as I understood both of you with westner and you uh are agreeing on the point that it's not very Rosy when the Western Balkan uh will join and um and U now I think we should uh give the floor to North Macedonia to uh do you have a PPT no thank you thank you you just a second I just also wanted to say also for the online participants uh the name of our next speaker is nano rusin former ambassador of North Macedonia in NATO former Rector of pH American University of Europe he's a professor of political sciences um and U he wrote 15 books his latest one titled nato in the Contemporary and international relationship so the floor is yours but my first language is French excuse me for my accent Franco English the title is the war in Ukraine and the consequences of this war for the International Community uh I planed to develop the topic in five parts first the war in Ukraine through the prison of Samuel hington second economic and Military political consequences on the international order third the possibility scenarios of this conflict four the rule of European union and fifth Western Balkan I probably won't be able to analyze all five dimension because the time is limit so apologize if some part are not fully elaborated I will start with hington hington predict two types of conflict in the new post Soviet World a micro conflict or conflict for territory and B micro conflict or conflict for ideology and control these two type of conflicts are ongoing in Ukraine the micro conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expressed through the war for the territory of cria dbas and lugans these regions have both geopolitical and strategic economic significance the macro conflict is much more significant is as it is a CL flash of IDE ideology following Ukraine's request to join the European Union and nato in essence it is the clash between democracy and autocracy this conflict actualize other latent rivales first of all the China USA rivalry which began with the economic war in China's ambition to threaten the hegemony of USA as a new Global Empire and also rivalry between block states that are in favor of preserving current relation in the world and those that are in favor of revision and multilateralism like Russia China maybe India Etc second title word what are the economic and geopolitical consequences Economic Consequences the war in Ukraine and sanction have descripted the chains of World Trade Financial flows and globalization de globalization has begun its March Global Society global economy and technological globalization are being globalized de globalized with a tendency toward Regional globalization the War uh caused huge economic and financial shocks in the commodity markets the price of oil gas and wheat row changes in the commodity price and fluctuation in financial markets reduced Global GDP growth accompanied by a several recession and rise in global inflation the greatest China's expert Jin Jing Shong believe that the erosion of American model from the time of Cold War which relied of two acts democracy and the market economy has begun Francis ukama developed the economic dimension of American hegemony with binski asserted geost strategical and hard power superiority concerning military political uh aspect we can speak about real world order uh some aspect developed by uh uh Mr Ian Baba uh the the the final outcome that will result of the creation of the New World Order they call the real world order this order will be DET detected by three or four great power according to the their economic and military strength whether the world is moving toward a new more balanced order also multipolar bipolar or aoral system or simply toward the affirmation of the old unipolar order dominant by the USA three men's agenda aims at R shapping to the International order the first is that of United States which is trying to dis deepen its position of hegemony and the top of the world order the second agenda is that of Russia and it its main goal it's to stop the penetration of NATO in the border and accurate the russophone Ukraine territory and crime and crime the third is the China's again again agenda to become the dominant world power alongside the United States what are the possibility scenario possible scenario Ukraine and Russia are confident of Victory and fear defeat the defeat of Russia would result of the fall of Putin's regime and perhaps it is it the disintegration of the state for Ukraine defeat would Mark the end of Ukraine's dream to of integrity and of exit to the Sea of azov and return to cria dbas and lugansk it would also be a great humiliation for the NATO the defeat of Ukraine would encourage Russia and other actors such China maybe to launch additional aggression second uh second scenario is like the scenario of the Marshall Manheim scenario he was the Prime Minister of Finland sence 1940 when in order to preserve Finland sovereignity he G he gave up strategic territory of the USSR uh or or today in actual situation uh for Ukraine to recognize the territory conr by the Russian army in accordance with last Putin uh recent proposal maybe two weeks ago finally the scenario of un uncontrolled escalation all the way nuclear Australian historian Christopher Clark has shown how the chain of decision led to the first world war without any actor seeking war in advance and at any cost the scenario of escalation is fed primarily by speeches and idea varable biding constituted a real territorial trap or the Trap of tukit I suppose and you know but if you don't know I will explain after uh this trap what is the role of Europe European Union in Europe the war in Ukraine has created a new geopolitical dimension in Europe this is no time for Romans said devil pen former prime minister of uh France for that purpose it is necessary a urgent need to for economic recover strengthening of the military and diplomatic agility B dealing with all issue arising from the Ukraine conflict long-term strategy and rigorous selection as necessary priority and C B prolong prolonging the war the European Union will have to walk a critical line succeed in expanding a dangerous as necessary will transform it to integrate new security imperative the draws are div dividing line between members from Central and Eastern Europe and and those from Western Europe and in the western family Germany is more inclined toward Atlantis and France toward autonomous defense the European Union should play the role of diploma mediate between China Russia and USA and show that is not just the Cape of great as Asia but that is a brain with a big body as a Paul berin call it what are finally the consequences of stability in the western Balkan the Balkans is a region where nothing is simple says French uh uh French political niolo the war in Ukraine complicated the situation in the western Balkan even more in the postcommunist period the crisis syndrome in the Balkan has been present since the fall of the Berlin Wall there are there are three types of potential rivales a within the framework of multiethnic States B within the framework of tension between Former Yugoslav units and see tension with the principle of the good nabas with European union members is geopolitics the main cprit geopolitics involve the analyze of liaries between major State and their impact of the people living in the given territory the Western Balkan does not building of the area of the world her herland uh the theory of Miner or the euroasia but the rimland Zone like said spikeman the Russia invasion in ukraina divided the countries of the western Balkan according the another Criterion Republica Sera openly support Putin Serbia partially support Putin the three NATO members North Macedonia Montenegro and Albania as well as Bosna and heroina and Kosovo officially support ukraina unofficially public opinion in North Macedonia and Montenegro is Sater divided or open to Putin Albanian from Western Balkan support Ukraine such a uh such a situation created a favorable space for aggressive Russian soft power policy Russian geopolitic GE polian Alexander Coro believe that the cold war is being waged in the balans between the conspirators of the unipolar war of the US say and the multipor war Russia and China Coro believe that the trans transnational project of Russia and China which would mean salvation to for the Balkans are being made Impossible by the West in the end we ask ourself in which direction is it desirable for the Western Balkan to move this turbulent and unsafe fault if Rec uh globalization AAS it is logical for the Western Balkan to move toward the European Union however no one guarantees that new division or rivalries are possible on the the road of as well thank you thank you very much uh so uh as I told that we have uh speakers for all different spheres and I I know thaton uh is also preparing a more broader view of the situation uh so just to uh explain his background um uh he's from the Western Europeans hemisphere uh in our panel he started his career at the French defense Ministry in Paris he was appointed at to oce in Vienna he joined the Secretariat of the oce as senior external cooperation officer uh in this capacity he worked with EU and NATO and his uh uh research interest include disarmament and arms conol including his uh book in the pipeline Border Wars around the world so he uh joined us now from Austria uh from o the AIA Institute for international politic or in English Austrian Institute for international Affairs thank you for coming it's just a a jump an hour drive from here Vienna that's right thank you and thank you ano thank you very much good afternoon to you all uh it's a pleasure to be here in ceg uh let me thank warmly the I ask for its kind invitation um ano I suggested that we could maybe exchange today on postwar Europe how to rebuild our security architecture that's actually the topic I'm exploring with eight other European think tanks with the aim to produce recommendations to our governments by 2025 so let me start uh by comparing three Milestone documents issued at three decades of distance you have them on the screen on the one hand the Paris Charter for new Europe signed in 1990 at the end of the Cold War on the the other hand the EU strategic Compass adopted in March 2022 and the new NATO strategic concept also adopted in 2022 as you can see in 30 years we have moved from a time of profound hope pragmatism and optimism to a time of pessimism in security and profound divide in Europe however the Russia Ukraine war eventually HS it will have major implications on consequences on Europe's future security architecture the impact is actually already visible for example higher military spending see Germany's famous Titan vendor or Denmark reversing its 30y year opt out of EU csdp C state somehow forced to align with one side or the other and see as well International institutions questioned in their legitimacy and even existence such as the osc where as ano reminded I served during 11 years actually the conflict in Ukraine is the symptom of a biggest bigger crisis in European security and by the way it's interesting to ask ourselves when has it started was it 2014 and the annexation of Crimea no certainly not much earlier was it the Russia the Russo uh Georgian conflict in 2008 no either I would say still earlier in my opinion okay think that you have to keep the yeah yeah but I think you you listen to you you can hear me right yeah yeah yeah but on the online oh the online yes yes of course thank you thank you for the the reminding um in my opinion the decade 1995 to 2005 was the turning point with two waves of NATO enlargement and the aliance bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 it was actually in 2007 at the end of this decade that Vladimir Putin pronounced Ed his well-known Munich speech at the Munich security conference in which as you remember he criticized what he called the U the US monopolistic dominance in global relations and it's almost I quote almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations as well as NATO expansion so 35 years have passed since the Cold War but no stable International order has been created let me quote Angela Merkel the former German Chancellor at her first public interview since leaving office in 20121 I quote it has not been possible to create a security architecture that could have prevented this and that's something to think about the question is now can we draft a kind of code of conduct for the rest of the 21st century can we agree on rules for common security cooperation that would allow no more security vacuum can we make European security architecture more resilient on the long term first of all is it yet time to start rebuilding or should we exclusively Focus on bringing peace and Justice to Ukraine many might argue that it makes little sense to discuss architecture while the house is burning it could even give a fake feeling of business as usual certainly it is difficult to envisage new negotiations in the present tense political climate and without a Clear Vision of um the the outcome of the conflict but this does not mean that we should do nothing of course it's premature but with a return to more stability in the region the difficult process of rebuilding trust will have to begin and it's our responsibility I believe to explore all opportunities to reach that point you might have notice that Wars often result in defining moments of consensus that allow for discussion on security architecture that was the case in 1815 after the Napoleonic Wars um with the the Vienna Congress um in in 1815 that was the case in 198 with the Versa Congress and the creation of the League of Nations and that was the case in 1945 but you remember that um allies at the time did not wait for the end of the the second world war to start exploring options for the future and you remember Roosevelt and Churchill meeting uh offshore Canada in a in a ship And discussing the war objectives and how to precisely rebuild security architecture after the end of the war so I would say that uh raging war is not necessarily an obst tle to indepth assessment of Europe security landscape of course the the outcome of the war will certainly impact the reflection but I would say we cannot wait so let's start now even yeah I forgot this I forgot this example but I think it's a good one even during the Cold War you remember the elsi uh Accord uh in 1975 um and it was in interestingly it was only a few month even a few weeks after the brutal military suppression of the prag spring by the wara PCT States in uh 1968 that Finland suggested to start a process of discussion that would lead to the Helsinki Accord six years after so you see no major obstacle to start discussing even while the war is Raging can I have the next slide yeah yeah yeah okay oh thank you it's about six minutes yeah um we need maybe to stay a few few seconds on the on the context you you see some some some new trends that we need to keep to keep into account so the PX American of course and I think the next elections in the US will be determinant the rise of China as SG n NATO SG stoltenburg recently said China is moving closer to us uh and you might remember China's peace plan for Ukraine also the melti what what Amaria the uh the Canadian uh Indian um terrori is calling the multiplexed world so a mixture of new players new middle Powers you know willing to change the world order like India South Africa turkey and so on the west versus the rest each it's Angela Angela stent this quotation the kind of feeling that the West is getting marginalized uh with regard to the global South geopolitical Europe of course but Vesna pusich already mentioned the geopolitical uh the Ula fan geopolitical commission NATO's new posture uh coming back to deterence and defense of the Cold War and Europe moving northeastward you know like with Poland becoming the biggest military player in Europe uh the Baltic states more and more assertive um new leaders like kayak kalas you know new charismatic leaders and at the same time the German Russian the German the French German couple kind of uh getting we weekend so that's something we need to to take into account the challenges uh that we need to uh that we need to take into account if we want to rebuild the security architecture first of all going beyond the status quo without compromising what already exists and that might be the core Divergence between Russia and the West the West would say we do not need new rules we need to create a context where the existing rules uh can work and the Russian Federation would say that new security realities um have rendered the core principles of the International System somehow out of date and we need new uh new new ones new rules new principles and the question is particularly crucial when it comes to institutions um you know we have uh we have exist in institutions like the uh the NATO the EU the USC the Council of Europe but all Western created and oriented but what about the international organizations that Russia has created in the meantime like the the CSO the shangai cooperation organization and many others the Second Challenge and and this is big one what to do with Russia the Russian Federation is not going away expecting its defeat its transformation or even its fragmentation is a dangerous illusion in my opinion so therefore the place and role of Russia within Europe security architecture appears to be a critical uh issue so the question is whether we are heading to a period of immense and prolonged hostility with Russia or uh should we listen to Pope Francis who said exactly here in Hungary one year ago that we should let nobody becoming an enemy forever and I think he was referring to Russia but that will not be easy you see uh what the French President macron raised sharp criticism when he re reaffirmed even after 2022 that a new security architecture should provide Russia with security guarantees another challenge which geographical scope only Europe but what about the Arctic region what about the Mediterranean region and the last one under which umbrella so the NATO and EU are not available to play the role for obvious reason what about the USC the USC has been has been crippled in Ukraine and is losing any legitimacy at the moment so the question is which uh which instit ution to to use maybe macron's speaking about him macron's European political Community but we can debate over it uh or a kind of Vienna congress with only the leaders deciding or the US Russian bilateral talks that might be a serious um that might a serious uh possibility we went through ch um um challenges and red lines what should be the content of a future European security architecture what should feature in it I would say that European security architecture should remain comprehensive I think we should keep the three dimensions of security you know the famous three baskets of Helsinki becoming the 's three dimensions of security so political military economic environmental and human but that might be a difficulty with Russia because you know Russia and its allies tend to think in terms of hard security only and they tend to despise or at least neglect human security the European security architecture should cover Security in Europe and security of Europe so also the neighboring regions the adjacent regions the um security architecture should include security guarantees for the but I I don't like the ex the the the expression but uh the in between states so Ukraine but also mova also Georgia um we know now that the Budapest memorandum was an illusion but we need of course to find something else should we maybe ReDiscover some forms of neutrality maybe it's too late but I think uh some opportunities have been missed with regard to neutral and we would need probably conventional Arms Control regime like the one which existed in the in the framework of the USC and has been uh collapsing um yeah I think I will stop now and I wanted to speak a bit about the the preconditions to start no uh second Yalta uh should we solve Ukraine before should we should we solve all the Frozen conflict but I will keep it uh for the for the debate debate one word of conclusion in all cases we need to be patient history shows that negotiations on new regimes usually last decades and cannot be agreed overnight the Vienna Congress lasted two years with you remember diplomats dancing and banqueting in the meantime and the Helsinki final Act was preceded by 2,400 meetings and deliberations on 4,560 proposals so you see it's a lengthy process thank you very much for your [Applause] attention thank you very much and uh yeah so the dancing part we would take over from the Vienna Congress and Finlandia Palace is still there but uh definitely we would need to find a new Geographic space for another um complex discussion of that kind uh last but not least uh I would like to uh introduce our speaker Nelly kirilova uh she is Bulgarian but uh when we attribute where she's coming from she has been spending the last years partly in Budapest as a doctor student of the Corin University and uh uh in conjunction with this doctoral school she was also in the European doctoral School of European security and defense college with a um field study part uh in um uh also in Brussels in the Brussels schools of international studies University of Kent so uh your uh presentation as far as I know uh is also connected your uh deep research in the Black Sea region thank you very much uh before I start I would like to ask you a few questions if you don't mind because it's the last speaker so you maybe fall asleep question number one who is academic please raise your hand academic Professor doctor M and who is from the governance policy uh International organizations one only one okay okay two two okay so uh who comes from um uh conflict region like the country where there is a conflict in the Black Sea region or in the Balkans who who who comes from a conflictual country who comes from the Balan countries please raise your hand Balan countries okay if your country is in the western Balkans and not in the EU please raise your hand okay and if your country is in the Black Sea region and not in the EU please raise your hand okay thank you and third question do you think that you come from a small small power raise your hand small power okay do you come from a middle power middle power can include also Empire post Empire State yes do you come from a middle power raise your hand no and do you think that you come from a global power Global power EU included do you come from a global power you included okay thank you very much so this was to cheer you up a little bit and now we move to a more theoretical perspective on the conflict prevention and the power perception I'll not speak about a case studies of any of the countries in the Black Sea region or the Western Balkans but I'll speak more about how we can prevent the conflicts there by examining the conflict as a result of competition for power between uh Global or Regional players like Russia turkey and the European Union um here is the table of contents as a recent PhD I was obliged to do this all the time so I will quickly go through all these uh stages as the main focus will be on the theory because until now we spoke more about case studies today and um yesterday uh the contribution that I'll make is about the new theory of power perception the reaction and conflict prevention and uh I'll give a little bit empirical example of the foreign and security policy strategies of the EU Russia and Turkey um as an introduction I would like to present the balance of power that could be a theory relating to two bipolar world multipolar or a world of a lot of polarities not only one and ongoing tectonic movement as we have right now tectonic shifts if I can use this uh comparison to geopolitics um the main literature that I use is michaun speaking about conflict and regionalism and then mackinder it's a very old theorist but I love his Heartland theory and it is applicable to small regions if we combine it with Lun and these small regions could be the Black Sea region and the Western Balkans as this is the topic of our or the audience of our um group and summer school here and my favorite is Baldwin who speaks about power but um uh he's trying to measure the dimensions of power but we indeed do not have have a clear definition of power so what I do today is uh an attempt to explain to you how we can measure power by defining it in six groups and examining this definition in the competition for influence between Russia turkey and the European Union and also we mentioned Huntington jinsky and others that I believe you're very well acquainted with so what is conflict according to Michael L and um the conflict is the ongoing uh um event that first it has the the moment when we can still prevent it when the tensions are ongoing but if we lose this moment then we go to the escalation of a crisis and the peak of this escalation is the war that we have now in this moment like the military engagement of different parties and after this uh um we have the reconciliation and again the peace building so the purpose of uh international relations and diplomacy is actually to prevent the escalation of conflict and not to go to the militarization at all if this fails then we have military conflict um so how I look at the conflict is a competition for power between Regional players in this case these are Russia turkey and the European Union in both the Black Sea region and the Western Balkans and China Iran or others could also get involved or the us but if it is only on the military side the US us could get involved through NATO as I look um in power in different um definition combining all different uh higher schools then I escape from the military only definition and I also have social definition and um different scopes of power so the main Gap um that we are not able to prevent conflicts in these regions at is that the perception of power differs between Russia turkey and the European Union and the panelists today and yesterday spoke about perception as well that when we have perception that something is very dangerous we are reacting um driven by fear and this reaction causes unwilling not so good um um results and if we are able to understand the intentions of the other one and to clearly and logically explain why and what they are doing maybe this fear will be um unnecessary for this reason we need to create a common understanding of power and then to to see who means what by power at a certain time period so the main questions that I pose is how power perception relates to conflict prevention how to measure the perception of power and how high actors could use the perception of power to prevent conflicts in this case I focus on the European Union because this is the the actor that I consider myself being part of but it could be also done used by the UN or Russia or turkey or any big player whose aim is to prevent the conflicts um so what is common in this case we have competition for power and this competition creates conflict this is different from the uh way that previous speakers were describing the conflict as a result of nationalist movements or local uh ideas and disagreements between the different uh community unities in a country I uh take this approach differently and these local disagreements I look at them as a result of great power competition so who is a big Power small power great power if we look by the territory um well it is one indicator another indicator is the economic development and also the neighbors and the the stability of the neighborhood and also the alliances that the country participates in but also the distribution of languages because information goes to the uh population through different languages and if you understand the language you can be influenced by the information that is going on but if in this right moment I'm speaking to you in Bulgarian maybe a few of you will understand me and maybe some of you know and for this reason language is also a powerful tool these are small examples just to um distract you and then we go to the competition for what influence and what is power we need measurable values power is not only the militarization and how many people participate in the Army how many tanks we have no these are just examples but we need to define a clear concept and my idea is that the hegemonic competition for influence can be uh looked through two different aspects the main actors who compete these are the Reg powers and the elements over which they compete these are the power elements if we are able to Define their perception of power then we can um prevent their reaction of competition and the the basic idea is that the reaction of competition is the reason for conflict if we avoid a competition then we are not going to have conflict and maybe even we're able to construct cooperation or at least achieve a neutral reaction um so in this case we try to identify the competition how by dividing power in these six groups of elements number one is security and Military number two economy investment number three energy climate these three fall under the hard power umbrella then we have number four diplomatic economic Relations number five governance and people these two are the s power and number six is the exchange of information and access to information and this is um the sharp power element and I'll show you how this works for the case study of the EU Russia and Turkey by examining their um importance that they give to each of the six elements of power to um through their foreign and security policy strategies in a certain time period here is here is a clear view of the elements of power and this is my theoretical invention which I hope to be useful to science this is why I'm imposing it to you you can take a photo distribute it if you wish now okay um now this is just the case study of the Black Sea region and why it's important for the EU because it's a conflictual region and not only during the war of Ukraine but it used to be in the past and probably in the future until we don't we resolve the conflict it will remain um questionable area so we need to find a stable solution for this and um how uh I'm doing it I selected the period between 2016 and 2022 because it's relatively um stable period with not major disruption before that yes after that yes but during it it was Rel relatively stable and I um took all the foreign and security policy strategies of the EU Russia and Turkey I did the discourse analysis and content analysis of them based on the six power elements to understand which element is important for which actor at that time so for the European Union it's the global uh EU Global strategy 2016 and its annual assessments for 2017 18 19 and the result for the EU I'll just jump to it is that high priority areas or competition areas could be economy diplomacy information access renewable energy climate change low priority areas military and foreign information manipulation this was before the war in Ukraine so for turkey we have the colleague from Turkey yes I have difficulty pronouncing it thank you yes uh the document was enterprising and humanitarian foreign policy strategy from 2020 and I did two types of analysis number one is the content but by volume um shares of the strategy to see which are the most important areas and the result was that the most important areas were as the name says um economy and people but then I made a second assessment which was based on the number of times a word is mentioned in the foreign and security policy in in this uh policy of turkey foreign policy and then the result was quite different the main aspects of it were indeed information access and communities abroad for Russia I did the same type of analysis so National Security strategy foreign policy concept and energy strategy were the available documents the quick um analysis on the volumes showed that the most important issue for Russia was energy security but then when I did the in-depth analysis it had a different result and it showed again that societies abroad were quite important this is the result from the volume shares it shows that diplomacy and Military are the most important and this is not surprising at all but the indeep analysis showed completely different thing and I'm going to it right now so this is the result from the e inde deep analysis of the Russian and Turkish foreign policy strategies in the uh Russian one in which is in red color you can see that the most important elements of power were government and Society followed by military security and then diplomacy politics and then economic governance and information exchange and there it was very much stressed the communities abroad who had the Russian or post-soviet mentality for turkey the result was similar but interestingly the name of the foreign and security policy strategy is related to economy and people social society and governance but indeed the most important uh categories of words used in it were military security diplomacy politics and the surprise here is the information exchange which was used by communities abroad who have turkic language not Turkish but turkic origin of the language this includes Kazakhstan turkistan and others also Islamic religion and this includes all the countries where Islam is um used and it also had the um countries who has historical background close to Turkey including in the balans so next time when you think about a conflict with your neighbor think about who is the great power maybe initiating this uh this likeness or not exactly hatred but unfriendly relations mhm so I'm going to the conclusion uh the high conflict potential um areas are based on security govern society and information access when the actors compete on this uh I mean the EU Russia and Turkey in this case and the high cooperation potential is in economy energy and diplomacy if the great these Regional powers are able to uh succeed successfully cooperate in them then maybe the conflict will not be the main priority for them and the the main results from this um comparative analysis for the three actors is that for the EU the categories of power which are the most sensitive are economic investment and Democratic institutions in the Western balcans and in the Eastern partnership countries for Russia this is energy security and people as people we mean U people considered as own Society living abroad and for turkey these are military security information and people again but these are people abroad who have common language religion or history this means who had the historical Roots abroad not those who are recently moving and um finally the misperception about the interest of the other uh competitors might lead to a war for this reason the value of the elements of power is that each um the intention of each competitor should be clarified in advance and then a mediating role could be played by our countries so instead of doing the conflict in the Balkans and in the Black Sea region countries we could just try to um balance between the interest of the global players in this region and try to accommodate our internal policies with what they're um maybe misinterpreting about each other so scenarios for Europe mine are very optimistic Regional powers can uh agree and Europe could enlarge and accept both Balan countries and Eastern partnership countries I believe in this and I work for for this thank [Applause] you thank you very much uh may I ask the it to show whether the online participants are with us uh okay thank you very much and um really happy that you are could stay all the time with us also from New York which is a little bit later and um um in order to uh let the audience who were listening uh uh very uh D diligently up to now speak so first uh I would ask questions from the for floor the first question uh came uh from our uh other speaker from another panel from Kosovo thank you very much um I'd like to begin by commanding Miss page for kind words and basically just stating the obvious uh because I believe that Times Like These we really need to uh distinguish between the ones who are uh in favor of of just speaking out the truth and uh I'm afraid I have to say uh to to say something or make make a mention of U or comment on uh the part that Mr yich has made um by the way for the ones who might have joined this session now uh my name is Arbor VRI and I work in the government of kosova I hold a position of Deputy minister in the ministry of uh administering local governance um um I have to say it's sad to to to hear from um um politician and intellectual of that sture uh such as Mr yage um grudges from the past that can't seem to be overcome um mentioning uh uh you know using phrases like so-called Kosovo uh and then uh the unilateral Declaration of Independence um I think it's more than obvious that Kosovo is an existing entity and yeah it declared its independence um unilateral or or multilateral as an alternative I don't think that there are many nations in the world who have multilateral Declaration of Independence I mean I don't think it really makes much sense um or if you want to expand on that um then we may take the case of Serbia itself whose Independence was uh de facto declared by uh another country um another uh Global power uh um Russia in the 19th century um at the outcome of the uh Russia uh Turkish war of 1877 and 78 then the Treaty of San Stefano and later on the Congress of Berlin um so that that may be one way of declaring independence of of some country all right I'll try yeah I'll try to cut my comment brief um so uh what happened uh yeah it was contested our Declaration of Independence was contested by Serbia of course not just Serbia also its allies and uh then there was the decision uh that was ruled by the international court of justice on the July 22nd on near 2010 uh with a vote of uh 10 to4 in favor uh of uh uh approving that the Declaration of Independence by kosova assembly did not violate international law um and you may think who could have been the one the person or the institution to bring that case to an international court and uh ladies and gentlemen is none else but Mr vukich himself and uh yeah I believe that U it's a bit difficult to overcome the trauma of of such failure of such proportions but um I don't think that it serves people peace or the common interest of the western Balkans and EU itself uh I believe that um Serbia the country I mean the institutions but also um the politicians who may not be the part of the system and intellectuals to admit the reality it would be kind if there would be some apology uh from Serbia or from uh intellectual Elite and politicians for its transgressions over the decades if not centuries towards uh albanians in Kosovo but if not that at least just uh admit the reality and let's try to work together for a shared peaceful future in the beginning session uh in the beginning part of of today's session we were talking about the militarization of the EU uh I have to uh mention the fact that our government has doubled uh the defense budget and it comes as a consequence of this kind of attitude that we are facing uh from our uh Northern neighbor uh so Mr y MIT I would invite upon you um to uh to think again um I have also to to mention because I don't want to sound sarcastic okay my final final uh remark I don't want to sound sarcastic uh uh but uh I value intellectual prowess of of uh Mr yanich um when he was uh serving in in foreign uh in my of Foreign Affairs of Serbia um when he was talking to uh majority Muslim countries uh he was uh bragging that he is a nephew of a Muslim family the renowned poras family and when he was talking to the West Western governments he was uh you know making the case for Serbia protecting the Christian and Western Civilization uh so I think he can do better we all can do better uh let's work together for peace really very short comment and since we had a broad panel with a lot of topics I really wouldn't like that we stuck uh it's this forum gives platform to comments uh uh from all uh directions very brief uh well I do I do I have the floor I'm sorry I have another question for Mr yich so maybe he can take both of our questions sure um I just wanted to mention that the Western Balkans as it is today it is a result of great commitment and efforts spent by International communities to close a negative piece and open a positive piece a new chapter for the Western Balkans so a new future for these countries and was it successful or not well uh we can discuss a lot on that but uh nevertheless um it it is not an option for small states to perpetuate per perpetuate uh this kind of U old narratives and grievance and so on so we need to accept the Western Balkans as a factual reality and do our task as Regional and um uh for regional and EU integration so um I know you have an official position uh coming from Serbia but um I think that uh we need right now A normalization of situation uh between Serbia and kosova for the future of the region so please I want to know from from your perspective how realistic it is to get back and Rule uh 1,800 albanians with a completely different region and after um such such uh such situation from the '90s to 99 so I think it's not realistic at all so we should maybe see for for a future solution in Western Balkans your name and yeah my name is air lulia I'm nias fellow and I'm from Albania so a lecturer and researcher based on Tran Albania so I I I will give the word to uh Mr bich for the answering of the two questions thank you um thank you very much uh for giving me the floor uh I pick one question I think that first uh first one was U more of a statement and an observation just to clarify things uh I used to be a politician I am no longer a politician I actually do not hold any official position nor I have any plans on uh taking an official position in Serbia uh I want to thank for the kind words calling me an intellectual means a lot but uh I'm trying to make sense of things by thinking them through um I must make u a correction in a certain way it is related to the international Court of justices um uh advisory opinion related to the unilateral Declaration of Independence of the so-called covo uh it did not violate international law because the court said that uh unilateral Declarations of Independence are not s object to international law because this is not how you create a state to make it more obvious if for instance we decide now in kosek uh at the end of this session to declare uh the independent state of kosek by means of signing International Declaration of Independence of kosek um we would still not violate international law but on the other hand that would not make Kos a state but to cut the long story short um Kosovo is recognized by a uh significant minority of international countries around the world it is a part of the reality uh I am not trying to deny that uh the situation is very difficult in this regard and that there can be uh very little hope of coming to Common position and I said that in my opening remarks when I advocated for a more uh I would say honest and transparent approach uh to the European future of the western balans which cannot be fortunately or unfortunately in my opinion unfortunately cannot join the European Union under the current Regional and Global circumstances um I cannot imagine uh Kosovo joining the European Union with five countries of the European Union not recognizing it Serbia not recognizing it majority of the world Nations including two permanent members of the security Council not recognizing it so what is the next best thing that we can do and um I must say that I was very uh intrigued and impressed uh by our colleague from France uh who gave a very deep and comprehensive uh view of how uh the future security and political architecture of Europe uh can be uh thought through engaged on uh with the respect for uh the notion of neutrality of certain parts of the world uh when it comes to the Balkans there are two neutral countries one is Serbia the other is in bosni and herina um I think that neutrality ought to be respected ought to be engaged with and when it comes to the European future of the western Balkans in the face of this for the time being insurmountable obstacle um is to uh actually uh engage with the balans by giving it a uh uh special status uh with the European Union could be a customs Union could be in economic engagement which is part of the reality already Europe is uh the most formidable economic actor in our part of the world that part of reality ought to be underlined and enhanced and given if you will uh um an accentuated future uh but when it comes to the um Regional powers or Global Powers competition and influence which was um a very very U I'd say interesting and intelligent commentary by our Bulgarian colleague uh the three uh big influences in the Balkans for many many centuries have been Russia turkey and Europe uh I don't think it is utterly realistic uh to try and engineer the uh pushing out or extinguishing the uh influence of Russia and Turkey in the region it has been with us for many centuries it is going to stay with us uh but uh the link with Europe for the time being the most powerful and the most engaged actor in the western Balkans in my opinion ought to be enhanced and ought to be enhanced by having a uh more honest more transparent more realistic approach to what we can do together as opposed to uh in my opinion unfortunately pretending that we are still somehow going to continue along the path of accession uh which uh let's face it we all know does not lead to uh a materialization of our hopes from the beginning of this century when it comes to uh relations between serbs and albanians Serbia and Albania uh between the two peoples um I think we uh we ought to do more and we should do more when it comes to reconciliation but we should also address and not try to deny uh the Realties that exist and the Serbian if you will side of the reality is that the independence of Kosovo that was declared back in 2008 is utterly unacceptable that does not have to be an end of the world yeah yeah yes this this for and against to another conf there are ways their ways to work together despite these realities thanks yeah okay okay thank you very much uh so we heard the position for and against and since we were covering a very broad panel so I would uh really uh ask either the panelists or anyone in a broader question uh but first it was uh uh ruin zon who was showing yes thank you ano actually thank you very much to all the panelists I'm Ruben zon from North Macedonia I ask fellow here um I have a question for simonet you said that you work in um for the OST actually in vietna in Scopia in November actually was the The Summit and it was a big crisis about the existence of thec and should it continue to to work because it was the Russian actually not consensus about who will be the the chairperson the chair State actually the O and you also said in you presentation that actually osc is not functioning anymore but I think at the moment OS is the only mechanism which has one kind of dialogue between the Russia and the and Europe and so on so what is generally your opinion about should the O continue and how to continue because for me it's good to continue because I also work once for and the second question you you mentioned about the geopolitical strategy of macron and so on generally we didn't see nothing as a document just it was uh uh The Proposal from the summit but but they are offering to the Western Balkan to the members of this geopolitical Union European Union so can you say much more broader about the idea of this geopolitical Union the European Union as alternative for the European union membership I believe these are specific questions to Mr simono please thank you thank you very much I believe um and you could correct me if I'm wrong but I think the next panel will be devoted to the macron's or to European political community no no or it just I see I see I see I thought it was because it's the same uh same title let me start with the the USC um I would say that if the USC did not exist we would need to invent it because as you said it's the only mechanism available at the moment in Europe a forum where both the the US and its allies and uh Russia and its allies are taking full membership now it's also the reason why thec is completely paralyzed uh you know that thec functions on a consensus uh base and I think it's the curse of the organization uh because uh everything is paralyzed everything is weaponized at the USC you know that the organization functions with no budget no Unified budget since 2021 uh so imagine uh imagine an organization with 57 participating states with no budget that's absolutely uh unbelievable um so I think the most the most urgent thing for the USC is to preserve its way of functioning you know that there is a big leadership crisis as well um the both the um Secretary General and the three top three positions were prolonged last year in Scopia but only for nine month contrary to three years normally uh in the in a routine way so in September of this year we will have again this issue of the top four positions I think the the current SG will not be extended Russia will object it but maybe everything will be complet completely blocked if Russia and the West cannot agree on a name to uh to lead the the the organization we have also a big issue when it comes to the to the chairperson in office you know the doc is um chaired by a running presidency every year so this year it's Malta and Malta was kind of forced to agree last year to chair the organization because nobody else was willing to do so next year for the 50th anniversary of the Elsy agreement it will be Finland so we've been lucky long ago to agree on Finland because Russia in the meantime has would object to any NATO country chairing the organization so thank God Finland uh at the time was not yet a member of the aliens otherwise uh Russia would have objected um to it its chairmanship chairpersonship but after Finland we do not know what who will chair the organization and I think it will be a big uh big difficulty to to find somebody to find a country to chair the organization so I would say first of all the USC needs to continue existing administratively um and also in terms of leadership budget field operations also the existence of the 16 well 16 before the war but I think now 13 field operations of the USC uh are um in danger as well the Mandate might not be prolonged by Russia um so first of all we need to allow the organization to survive and then we need to find a way to use the organization maybe we never know maybe at some point the International Community will realize that uh um when a ceasefire will have been signed in Ukraine maybe we will find out that that the USC is the only suitable framework to speak about Ukraine's future you remember that a few years ago NATO was in a deep crisis with macron speaking about brand dead organization and you know that in the meantime NATO has recovered uh and uh is now a very useful organization so we never know but I'm a bit pessimistic I'm a bit pessimistic um yeah um the second one the European political community so you refer to macron's sorry we speak a lot about my president at the moment which might not be a good thing considering what he did to us two weeks two weeks ago putting his own country in a big trouble with this dissolving the the parliament um I don't know what to think about this uh EP EPC to be honest um I was I met coincidentally last week in Paris Uber vrin the former and very respected uh foreign minister of France he served under three presidents and he's a highly respected man and I was surprised to hear very positive things from his mouth about macron's European political community and he said that we need we need a kind of framework with uh Western balans uh EU countries uh and all the all the European actors so let's see let's see what uh what um we will uh make about this EPC so far as you said it's only three summits um yeah yeah yeah sure sure sure but uh yeah maybe in the future we will find a role for this EPC as a negotia Forum I I I do not really know to be honest sorry for having been too long no uh shanki was showing up thanks very much time is tight so I'll be very quick um one for L and one for Nelly if I may and they're both intended to provoke they're not they're not criticisms and they're just comments for the purpose of getting a reaction your argument in favor of engaging in crafting a security architecture while the fighting is taking place is I think compelling I I've argued for the same thing for four months uh I actually argued for it before uh February 204 2022 but the one element you didn't mention L and I just like your comment on that is as you know in 2009 there were fairly extensive negotiations in respect of a European security architect um quite substantial drafts I have four sets uh the Russian draft is still on the Russian president's website today and this wonderful phrase indivisible security of course has its origins in the European security architecture negotiations of that period so in one sense uh if I can be slightly factious we've already been we've had this on the table for 15 years and that beats Helsinki already and I think many people are arguing at present that the Helsinki approach is the only rational approach to being able to deal with the Russia Ukraine issue in the wider context of a security architecture so I just like your comment on that if I may and Nelly I thank you very much it was uh very helpful I'm sorry that I I couldn't get a a pre cut of that last evening but it was a it was a very helpful frame in respect of the introduction of a conflict cycle if I may uh as a suggestion you might want to relate that approach to the classic neorealist approach to foreign policy formulation and the reason I say that is if one uses perceived National interest as The Point of Departure in respect of this and then clarifies from perceived National interest national security policy and National Defense policy and then thinks of the four classes of policy instruments diplomacy uh propaganda Public Communication whatever you want to call it economic instruments and Military Security Instruments be very interesting to see what level of correlation you got if you took those three powers in respect of that particular space so you've got the data if you've got spare time it would be very interesting to see how those two correlate in that fashion thank you very much I just uh want to ask from uh other panelist Professor vich if you have any comments to the other speakers thank you just a short short comment on on two things uh one is I was really encouraged by Nelly's presentation who treated European Union as a power I think we have still some uh time to to reach that stage and I think one of the maybe bigger problems of the European Union that it actually is not a world power in the sense of uh world powers that that we talk about not even Regional power it's a very it was a very successful economic Union uh but now when when security and influence for instance is on the agenda as the the sort of key things in the international relations European Union is not doing that well and uh is not really I think hasn't really reoriented its thinking from uh the the concept of being so attractive that everybody wants to join to hasn't awakened to the new reality which is that it actually has to have a proactive policy reaching out to countries that are important for its security to attract them and integrate them into the European Union I don't think we are there yet and therefore I wouldn't treat European Union unfortunately as as a world power yet or even a regional power yet and as far as the discussion about the Western Balkans is concerned I just want to say I'm a little bit more optimistic it's a tedious thing uh it lasts sometimes a very long time but I don't think there is a fortunate alternative there is a a an alter alternative that would provide decent politics for the countries of the western Balkans outside of the European Union Greece Romania Bulgaria all have long relations with turkey and or uh Russia and are happily in the European Union but I think we have to work on the public opinion and in that sense Serbia probably is in the biggest problem so to speak because that's the only country of the western Balkans where the public opinion does not m in majority support membership of the European Union it doesn't mean that it should stand stay out outside I really don't think so but I think it should be surrounded by success thank you very much thank you and also Nano Rin was asking for the mic yes thank you I would like develop two point uh first concerning origin of uh Ukraine crisis I think with uh dissolution of urss uh and with proclamation of uh independency of Ukraine that was the first sign of some problems between KF and Moscow Second Step maybe is to decide uh giving of back nuclear Arsenal to Russia because if you have some nuclear uh arms uh the other country are not uh uh really decide to attack another country and other point concerning French political life now in France the people speak only about strategy of Jordan uh bardel bardel bardel uh he he will be probably prime minister of France and uh his position is uh then France will continue some aspect of Emmanuel macron policy but they will he will stopped to give uh the uh Mel of long Port Long uh yes and uh this is only maybe a big change but uh uh I remember because every day I give I regard the LSC uh macron said then France will continue to have the same position this is now the little little uh rivality between macron like a president and prime minister Pro probably maybe I'm not sure uh bardel uh and if the scenario continue maybe uh with Mari Le Pen who is preparing for the next president if uh macron uh uh keep the leaves the Govern leave yes leaves his place as president this is Al also possibility because with new Parliament with uh majority of uh of uh uh extreme uh right he is not imp possibility to function as a president thank you thank you Nelly do you want to comment thank you very much for the questions and this means that you paid attention so that's good I'm happy um I'll answer one by one so first uh regarding national interests and security actually um before defining the concept of power I decided to look at two aspects one is security which is the national um concept and the other one is the influence which is the external influence and that's how ne new realism yes I agree but needed to include also information access societies and that's why I divided it into a little bit more ideas um Minister VNA sorry your surname p it okay yes thank you very much for the question but the um your country is already in the EU and you say that you're not sure whether the EU is a power at this moment um I would like to say that this is typical for the Vulcan mentality that we are used to I come from Bulgaria so I say we are used to having the power imposed top down and it should come from above and we just agree or disagree we're attracted or not attracted but this is not the concept of the EU the concept of the EU is that the Civil Society is making the power we the people are creating the governance that we have and for this reason we should not wait for the EU to tell us what to do but each of our countries should respect um say what we have which are the National priorities and how this could best serve the EU ideas because your country and Croatia and Bulgaria excuse me are in the EU and Hungary and others and we are the ones who construct the European foreign and security policy and later when our colleagues from the Western Balkans and black SE region Country Center will be together constructing the EU foreign and security policy so think about how we work together and not about how we are going to quarrel and we are waiting for somebody to attract us or somebody to decide for us this is not the way that it will be successful for each of us and the third point if your country is not yet in the EU I have a few questions for you so number one do you want your country to enter the EU yes no yes no raise your hand if you know okay okay okay okay these are just to think about questions okay okay thank you and then um in our countries we have nationalism and emotions but who is imposing these um nationalist ideas and this negative emotions between each us because we do not win if we're quaring but who is winning I would tell you the EU is not winning if we the countries in the Balkans quarrel between each other in this case when you think about the nationalism and the uh disrespect and maybe sometimes even hatred to others who are neighboring your country think about who is winning from this is it China is it Russia is it us is it Persia is it Africa is it somebody else because somebody is trying to make you hate the other one so that you're not going to cooperate it's very old rule divide and Rule you remember from history it's working forever even now and we if we continue the narrative somebody else will take the decisions for us and that's the last Point thank you okay uh director M uh suggest something well thank you very much for this very very very interesting panel um thank you um VNA for joining us we have we haven't seen each other for a long time and and MIT to join us and thank you for sharing your your your views even if they are very contradictory sometimes it seems that they are um antagonistic but we had yesterday a very very good um um first day party or opening party and some of us stayed a little longer um among them our friends from Kosovo um not so-called from Kosovo from from Hungary from from Macedonia and so on and Bulgaria and and we concluded that probably we need here but this is what we can contribute here in KAG KAG in Croatian GS of dut we can um you can offer a platform to discuss things in a very friendly way um not representing political parties and ideologies and no hate speech there are certain Europe house rules it's the the Post chatam House it's Europe Europe house uh which will be 30 years old in September and this is I think we should continue this is what we can offer because as as everyone knows Europe is in a very dangerous situation at the same time it does have a chance European European union and the European political Community which I think is a genius idea if it was macron or it was Schultz or together we do not know but or or or borell but certainly they Co in this phrase and certainly it's not yet filled with real content although although heads of the states show up 50 of them next time they go to England the bur Palace of Churchill and then um towards the end of the day you are coming to Hungary because um it is kind of exop fito that um the the the the the state the nation state member state which gives the presidency is also hosting the European political community so what I'm saying is that this is a discussion which we cannot conclude we cannot finish in an hour or two hour session but I think it's it's the very fact is very positive that you are here and you are listening to each other my humble request would be to all of you including Representatives OCD the European Union who are here who are not here allthough invited and that why don't we put on the table some some Progressive ideas one step further we don't have to wait for the EU to solve things here in we are troublemakers all Hungary included we did not find completely our role and our place within this this very cumbersome process of integration the European Union many of the bureaucrats do not understand is not very interested in the small skirmishes um kind of all heated nationalisms yeah uh which do not bring any fruit basically except of give jobs for politicians I'm sorry I'm not talking about those who are present um you know secret Services so-called armies Etc uh in a abundant way I mean look at the map I mean Ian as I'm talking to my Hungarian fellows look at the map who are we alone look at China Russia United States India so we have now a little chance to contribute um a little bit to a better word why don't we try and forget about I know it's K of Po I know hungarians love this we have an Anem we we say beautiful poem 200 years ago written by K that we already were perished for our future SC you understand that we were already punished for the past and the future so we can do anything in hungarians because or super punished and maybe this are and there are text in the Bible and everywhere where which are I think outdated and this is the the the super nationalistic exclusive discourse it's completely outdated because it doesn't lead us anywhere so why don't we try to come together saying have good wine um we can bring yours um and and continue this discussion I wouldn't say every week maybe not every month but maybe a couple of times these years so are very very welcome maybe you can manage to come here um by car by train because online is a little um how to say it nonpersonal better than nothing and I thank you very much for the being open and um and don't feel frustrated I think it was a step forward and let's go further and the next panel debate is about European values so in a certain way we can continue this so thank you for the panel and [Applause] [Music]