hey everybody Peter Zion coming to you from the Lake of the Ozarks it is the 14th of July and last night Donald Trump was injured lightly in an assassination attempt now I'm not going to give you a blowby blow of what went down because the details are still very sketchy looks like it was a 20-year-old registered Republican who's donated money to Democrats which tells us absolutely nothing um the secet surface of course will be doing their own investigation in Leak with local law enforcement and the FBI and we will wait for more details to see where that takes us but I wanted to put this all into context uh there's a lot of things going on in the world right now that suggest we're going to be in a more politically volatile period uh first big thing America is going through its once and every generation political rearrangement uh something that Trump is part of uh the Americans have a first P post single member district political system which means you will vote for a single person who will then represent ENT a very specific geography you don't vote for a party uh in doing this uh American parties tend to be fairly weak and so they be tend to be coalitions of coalitions so you get multiple political factions that Bandy together around a single tent in order to get one more vote than whoever comes in second so today for example the Republican party has traditionally been made out of people who are concerned with budget deficit people who are concerned about National Security uh people are concerned about business regulation you get social conservatives uh that sort of thing uh well as technology and demographics and economic patterns evolve the factions make less sense and so the factions rise and fall within the coalitions and if things get stressed enough uh they end up falling out of the Coalition altogether maybe becoming swing voters maybe going to the other side what we're seeing right now is that in Spades for the Republican Coalition uh the business community and the National Security community and the fiscal Community have all been basically ejected from the party uh but Donald Trump has been successful in drawing other groups away from the Democratic Coalition so for example Union voters are no longer considered Democrats uh by their voting patterns and Hispanics have shifted quite a bit uh this is still very much a work in progress and Donald Trump is benefiting from this as much as he is losing from this but if you think about what's happened in the last 30 40 years we've had the rise of hyper globalization and now its fall we've had the height of the Baby Boomers in the workforce and now the retirement not exactly a shock to think that we are going to manage our political system differently so that's the first big Pak America politically is in movement second the world economically is in movement the whole point of the postor War II Global consensus was that the Americans will take care of the guns and keep everyone safe the Americans will open the market and make the global Seas safe for everyone's Commerce if in exchange you side with the Americans in the Cold War and that provided the basis for everything from the alliance with Taiwan Korea and Japan to Nato and that's created the world that we know it's also created the economic backdrop and the security backdrop that made the rise of China possible because during the Cold War late Cold War China was one of those allies well that whole system is breaking down two reasons number one the Americans can't pay for it anymore and don't want to the Americans have refashioned their Navy so instead of hundreds of ships that can Patrol the oceans they have a few clusters of ships that are really good for fighting Wars so the ability of having that Global coverage isn't there and Americans politically are tired of paying the economic price of keeping the world open for every one because it's put everybody else at an advantage versus American workers and that just doesn't fly in today's populist era the second issue is that when you do economically develop when you do industrialize you also urbanize and after seven decades of urbanization people are having fewer and fewer children around the world well do that for seven decades it's not that you're running out of 10 year olds and 20 year olds you're running out of 50 year olds and increasingly 60 year olds and this decade the 2020s was always going to be the decade that a lot of countries slipped away from having a Workforce that can support the global Iz system in the first place after all if you don't have consumption you don't have trade so this whole system the American political network is evolving and the global economic network is collapsing and reforming what this all means is there's a lot of change out there in the way we live the way we work who we service with our businesses where we get our goods and when things change people with a vested interest in the system don't always make it and people get scared and people get angry and that is when you get violence we're going to get it at the state level with a series of military conflicts the first of those is already happening in Ukraine we'll probably get one in China before long and in the case of the United States in carries a political change like this that's when we get our domestic political violence you happen in the 1930s when we had the Great Depression and that political reorientation it happened with reconstruction and it happened with the Civil War so I don't want to suggest that this is the beginning of more of the same I'm saying that the factors that Define our world are evolving and we're going to change with it and for the United States overall this is a net gain in many many ways but going through the process of getting from where we've been and what we're comfortable with to where we're going in something that's unknown unfortunately is going to generate a lot of stresses along the way and we saw some of that last night