War Between America and China: Who Will Win?

Introduction

• Topics Covered: Potential war between America and China, comparison of military strength, possible war scenarios, and implications.
• Premise: Rising global tensions, China's ambitions, America's current position.

Chapter 1: America vs China in Numbers

Economic Strength

• America's GDP: $25 trillion
• China's GDP: $18 trillion
• Military Spending:
  • America: $876 billion/year
  • China: $291 billion/year (official; actual may be higher)
• Conclusion: America's economy and defense budget are significantly larger.

Military Strength

• Active Military Personnel:
  • China: 200,000 members (largest army)
  • America: 130,000 personnel across all branches
• Population and Military Enrollment Potential:
  • China: 1.4 billion population; 20 million potential soldiers
  • America: 4 million potential soldiers

Combat Units Comparison

• Tanks: China: 5,000, America: 4,600
• Fighter Jets: China: 1,200, America: 1,800
• Helicopters: China: 913, America: 5,700
• Fleet Strength:
  • Submarines: Both ~60
  • Total Fleet: China: 730, America: 472
• Nuclear Warheads: China: 410, America: 5,224
• Cyber Capabilities: China has significant strength in cyber attacks

Chapter 2: Geography and Potential War Scenarios

Geographic Constraints

• Distance: 11,300 km apart
• Non-Adjoining Borders: Forces conflict in other areas

Taiwan as a Strategic Point

• Historical Context: Taiwan (ROC) was America’s ally during WWII; Mutual Defence Treaty (1950-1979)
• Current Status: Taiwan considers itself independent, China views it as a province
• American Stance: No official promise to defend Taiwan but implied support

Potential Conflict Scenarios

• Initial Attacks: Likely targets include Taiwan, communication networks, and military bases in Japan and South Korea
• China's Military Strategy:
  • Cyber attacks to disrupt America’s focus
  • Missile attacks on American military bases and ships
• Strategic Importance of Taiwan: Blocks China's access to the Pacific Ocean; China aims for rapid occupation

Chapter 3: America's Counterattack

Economic Sanctions

• US Dollar Dominance: Potential for sanctions that affect China’s oil imports from the Gulf countries

International Alliances

• NATO: Article 5 could trigger a collective response from Europe
• Allied Support: Japan, Australia, Canada’s navies, and NATO

America's Military Strategies

• Rapid Dragon Strategy: Conversion of cargo aircraft into weapon carriers
• Potential for Nuclear Response: Use cargo planes for nuclear attacks if necessary

Chapter 4: Conclusion

Future War Possibilities

• Timing: Predicted within the next 10 years
• China’s Objectives: Target to become a military superpower by 2035
• India's Role: Potential counterbalance to China; historical context of US support to South Korea

Geopolitical Implications

• Temporary Alliances: No permanent friends in geopolitics, only interests
• Strategic Decisions for India: Opportunity to position as an alternative to China