Transcript for:
War Between America and China: Who Will Win?

If there is a war between America and China, then who will win? Who is more powerful? Both countries do not share any border with each other So where will this war be? And what difference does it make to us? Rising global tensions, China's ambitions to become a superpower, and America's current leading position, one thing is clear that today or tomorrow, there will be a war in these two countries. But this war will not be less than a world war. Today's video is a thought experiment, a comparison, with which we will be able to understand the military strength of both countries. Let's understand. Chapter 1 America vs China in numbers First of all, let's talk about numbers. Which country has more power? Let's examine each factor one by one, and also give points to both countries. The real secret of any country's power is Vitamin M, that is money. The stronger the economy of a country, the more money it can spend on its military. It can develop new technology and leave other countries behind. All this data is from 2022. Because the latest data available to compare both countries is from 2022 only. America's GDP is $25 trillion, and China's GDP is $18 trillion. The World Bank says that America spends $876 billion a year on its military. 40% of the world's military spending is done by just one country, the USA. And because of this, it acts as a police around the world. Whereas China spends $291 billion a year. Which means, America's economy is still 1.4 times bigger than China's. And their defence budget is almost three times bigger than China's. But this is China's official budget. The real budget can be much bigger than this If we talk only about spending power, then America is much ahead of China. But China's People's Liberation Army is the largest army in the world, which has 200,000 active members. In America, the Army, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard, all together have 130,000 soldiers. That is, China gets the edge here. If there is an all-out war, then their 1.4 billion population can become a big power for China. Two crore people can enrol in the military. In America, there are only 4 million people who are of the right age to join the military. An armed force has three main wings. Army, Navy, and Air Force. One by one, let's understand the strengths of all three. If we talk about land, China has 5,000 tanks, and America has 4,600. That is, both countries can be given 1 point each If we talk about air, China has 1,200 fighter jets, and America has 1,800 fighter jets. China has only 913 helicopters, whereas America has 5,700 helicopters. In the case of the Air Force, America is far ahead of China. But when it comes to the Navy, you can see China's real strength. Both countries have around 60 submarines. But China's total fleet strength is 730. And America's is 472. So if we talk about numbers, Then at some point China is ahead And America at some point In nuclear warheads, America is light years ahead China has 410 warheads, but America has 12 times more, that is, 5,224 warheads. This is where America has a huge advantage. But China has another secret weapon, and that is cyber attacks. Chapter 2. China and America's war. Let's look at the geography. China and America are 11,300 km apart. Traditionally, wars take place on borders. And America and China do not share any borders with each other. So instead of attacking America, China will attack itself. I mean, it will attack another China. This is Taiwan, whose other name is the Republic of China. When the communists occupied China in 1949, the ROC government moved to Taiwan at that time. In fact, the China which is in Taiwan today was America's important ally during World War II. And they also helped America fight Japan. Taiwan considers itself an independent country. And China considers Taiwan as its own province. Let me tell you an interesting fact. Between 1950s and 1979, there was a deal between Taiwan and America called Mutual Defence Treaty. In which America promised that if China attacks Taiwan and forcibly tries to occupy Taiwan, then America will intervene. Until 1980, America did not consider this China as the real China. It considered Taiwan as the real China. In 1980, America recognised PRC, that is, this China, and their Mutual Defence Treaty with Taiwan ended. After this, America never officially said that it will protect Taiwan. But yes, it never said that it will not protect Taiwan. Meaning, America is playing a safe game. But still, if China attacks Taiwan, Then China is in danger of American interference. If China wants to attack America, then China will attack two at the same time. One attack will be on Taiwan and the other attack will be on America. But America's attack will be a cyber attack. Hackers will attack electricity grids, water systems, and communication networks of different cities. So that America's focus moves away And America cannot give assistance to Taiwan. Taiwan is important for China Because this small country blocks China's entry to Pacific Ocean. As we learned in Chapter 1 that China's navy is very powerful. But to use this navy, China will have to get off the military bases of America in Japan and South Korea and land in the Pacific Ocean. Did you know that there are 193 military bases in America in both these countries? In addition, there are 53,000 American troops in Japan. Breaking communication with them will be China's first step That is, China will start attacking by breaking communication lines. The next step will be rockets. China has more than 4,000 missiles. They can target American ships as well as land-based targets. American bases in countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines will be targeted So that America cannot plan a counterattack from here. DF-26 and DF-16 missiles will attack these military bases. But China needs to be very careful here because there are chances of collateral damage here. That is, if civilians die while attacking, Then these three countries will immediately become China's enemies. China's DF-27 can be launched from China and reach the east coast of America. America's air defence system will not be able to block it. In the next phase of the attack, American ships will be targeted. America's Pacific Fleet can fight a whole war on its own, which includes 200 ships, 1,500 aircrafts, and 1,50,000 personnel. China with thousands of its missiles will want to destroy America's Pacific Fleet first so that China has time to occupy Taiwan. From China's perspective, until Taiwan is not a part of China, China is incomplete. Today, America openly supports Taiwan. Until China will keep America distracted, China's People's Liberation Army can enter Taiwan and force it to surrender. Therefore, I think China's attack on America will be limited to Taiwan. But will America agree to this logic? Absolutely not. Chapter 3. America's Counterattack If China has hackers, then America also has two secret weapons. America's first weapon is the US dollar. Because of the US dollar, America is a superpower, which we have explained in this video. But because of the US dollar, America can impose sanctions on China. China has everything, but no oil. China imports 19% of its oil from Russia, but imports all the rest of the oil from the Gulf countries. The sanctions did not affect Russia because it is an oil and gas supplier. But China is a buyer. So if the Gulf countries side with America, the sanctions will have a strong impact on China. America's second weapon is its network. America is a part of NATO. And Article 5 of NATO states that if any member country of NATO is attacked, that means the entire NATO is attacked. That is, if China attacks America, then in a way, it will also start a war with Europe. That is, European countries will stop buying things from China. And then China will be able to survive for a few months only. To avoid this situation, China has been planning for the past 20 years. It is trying to make some part of the world trade in yuan, so that China can be free from the dominance of the dollar. But despite all these years of effort, China has only been able to capture 3% of global trade. America will not be alone in this war. With America, Japan, Australia and Canada's navy will join. And NATO is always there for support. China will be surrounded in two to three days Meanwhile, Taiwan's government will try to delay China's attack So that China cannot occupy Taiwan in two or three days. America has developed a new strategy specially against China last year. Which is called Rapid Dragon. In which such a cargo aircraft can be converted into a weapon carrier without any modification. This will convert these cargo planes into big bombers. And if needed, they can also be used for nuclear attack. In short, if China tries to attack America or Taiwan, then in a way, it gives America an excuse to attack them. Chapter 4 Conclusion Today's video was a thought experiment. But it could be the reality of the future. Because if 4-5 years ago, anyone was asked what is the possibility of a war in the 21st century, then almost no one would have said yes. But after the Russia-Ukraine war, after the Israel-Hamas war, any war seems possible. The only question is, when? China's weakness is its dependence on trade. Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Australia, It has a lot of enemies like these who are friends of America. But their strength is their strong leadership. Despite giving the whole world Covid, the World Health Organisation could not even touch them. This is the proof of China's increasing strength. At the same time, China has been researching on AI since the 1990s. China will use AI to strengthen its cyber attacks. And this could be America's biggest weakness. As long as China will be able to down America's communication systems, it will increase the chances of capturing Taiwan. And that will be a game changer for China. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the difference was that Ukraine did not have nuclear weapons. But today, China has nuclear weapons and so does America. So how far away are we from an actual war? How far are we from a global war? Well, Xi Jinping has set a target that by 2035, China will become a global-level military superpower. Modernisation is happening at the same speed. Which means, in the next 10 years, America and China can have a war And here, India is in a very interesting position. Because just like we know about this, Even America also knows this. It is trying to weaken China. It is trying to find alternatives for China. And India can become an excellent counterbalance against China. Historically, America has been doing this. When North Korea was becoming a communist, they supported South Korea against North Korea. And today, you can clearly see the difference between South Korea and North Korea. This happened because South Korea did not become a puppet of America. It focused on improving trade. It focused on development. And with the help of geopolitics, it made its own profit. India can be in the same position in the next 10 years. You can see small proofs of this today. Like a few days ago, American lawmakers came to meet Dalai Lama in India. America does not want any interference from China in the succession of Dalai Lama. That is, just like China interferes in America, America has also started interfering in China. In the next 10 years, the focus will be on the war between China and America. And if India plays well in this, then it can be very beneficial for us. We have to understand these things and make the right decisions. We will have to focus on becoming China's alternative. We will have to protect our own interests. Because in geopolitics, there are no permanent friends. Only temporary interests. And sharing this important message with you makes a difference to me