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Analyzing the Ukrainian Conflict: Phase Insights

Mar 4, 2025

Notes on the Lecture: "Ukrainian Purgatory"

Speaker

  • Markus Risner Reisner
    Head of Institute 1 for Officer Basic Training, Austrian Military Academy

Overview of the Situation in Ukraine

  • Day 1090 of the War
    • Focus on Phase 7 of the conflict.
    • Tension described as "Ukrainian Purgatory".

Recent Developments (Last 12 Months)

  • Key Battle Locations:

    1. Kursk (Northeast)
    2. Charkiw (South of Kursk)
    3. Kupjansk to Saporischschja (Long front line)
  • Territory Changes:

    • Russian side: 4,500 km² gained
    • Ukrainian side: 500 km² gained (mainly Kursk region)

Metaphor: Boxing Match

  • Russian Boxer: Walujew (50 wins, 2 losses)
  • Ukrainian Boxer: Haye
  • Represents strategy of attrition in the conflict.

Current Phase of Conflict: Phase 8

  • Inauguration of President Trump marks the start of this phase.
  • Potential for peace talks in the coming months.

Levels of Fighting in Phase 8

  1. Strategic Level:

    • Russians aim to destroy critical infrastructure.
    • 80% of infrastructure is damaged or destroyed.
    • Combined strikes used to inflict high losses on Ukrainians.
    • Up to 140 drones daily saturating air defenses.
    • Cruise missiles used every 2-3 weeks.
    • Ukrainians conduct counter-strategic offensives using long-range drones to target Russian oil facilities.
  2. Operational Level:

    • Russian Troops: 700,000 deployed along front.
    • Ukrainian Troops: 400,000 deployed, 400,000 in reserve.
    • Challenges: Gaps between Ukrainian brigades exploited by Russians; overextended front lines (27 km per brigade).
    • Use of gliding bombs by Russians complicates Ukrainian defense.
  3. Tactical Level:

    • Russians employ "Death by a Thousand Cuts" strategy, attacking everywhere possible.
    • First-person-view drones utilized by Ukrainians to defend positions.
    • Importance of artillery and drone technology on both sides.

Specific Front Situations

  • Kursk: Ukrainians attempting to hold territory for future negotiations. Recent counterattacks noted.
  • Charkiw: Stalemate situation.
  • Kupjansk: Russians forming bridgeheads, potential for future operations.
  • Pokrowsk: Critical logistics hub for Ukrainians; Russian advances noted.

Summary of War Dynamics

  • War characterized as a war of attrition focusing on time, resources, and morale.
  • Uncertainty on who will prevail in the conflict.

Political Developments at Munich Security Conference

  • Shift in US-European dynamics under President Trump:
    • Emphasis on European responsibility for Ukraine's future.
    • US troops not to be deployed; European troops expected instead.
  • Discussion of a potential demilitarized zone:
    • Russian perspective seeks territory east of the Dnepr.
    • Importance of controlling access to the Black Sea and resources.

Future Considerations

  • Europe’s role in future global dynamics is uncertain.
  • Hybrid warfare tactics affecting European societies.

Conclusion

  • The world order may be changing, with shifting power dynamics among major nations.
  • Importance of understanding these changes for Europe's future.