Notes on the Lecture: "Ukrainian Purgatory"

Speaker

• Markus Risner Reisner
  Head of Institute 1 for Officer Basic Training, Austrian Military Academy

Overview of the Situation in Ukraine

• Day 1090 of the War
  • Focus on Phase 7 of the conflict.
  • Tension described as "Ukrainian Purgatory".

Recent Developments (Last 12 Months)

• Key Battle Locations:

  1. Kursk (Northeast)
  2. Charkiw (South of Kursk)
  3. Kupjansk to Saporischschja (Long front line)

• Territory Changes:

  • Russian side: 4,500 km² gained
  • Ukrainian side: 500 km² gained (mainly Kursk region)

Metaphor: Boxing Match

• Russian Boxer: Walujew (50 wins, 2 losses)
• Ukrainian Boxer: Haye
• Represents strategy of attrition in the conflict.

Current Phase of Conflict: Phase 8

• Inauguration of President Trump marks the start of this phase.
• Potential for peace talks in the coming months.

Levels of Fighting in Phase 8

1. Strategic Level:

   • Russians aim to destroy critical infrastructure.
   • 80% of infrastructure is damaged or destroyed.
   • Combined strikes used to inflict high losses on Ukrainians.
   • Up to 140 drones daily saturating air defenses.
   • Cruise missiles used every 2-3 weeks.
   • Ukrainians conduct counter-strategic offensives using long-range drones to target Russian oil facilities.

2. Operational Level:

   • Russian Troops: 700,000 deployed along front.
   • Ukrainian Troops: 400,000 deployed, 400,000 in reserve.
   • Challenges: Gaps between Ukrainian brigades exploited by Russians; overextended front lines (27 km per brigade).
   • Use of gliding bombs by Russians complicates Ukrainian defense.

3. Tactical Level:

   • Russians employ "Death by a Thousand Cuts" strategy, attacking everywhere possible.
   • First-person-view drones utilized by Ukrainians to defend positions.
   • Importance of artillery and drone technology on both sides.

Specific Front Situations

• Kursk: Ukrainians attempting to hold territory for future negotiations. Recent counterattacks noted.
• Charkiw: Stalemate situation.
• Kupjansk: Russians forming bridgeheads, potential for future operations.
• Pokrowsk: Critical logistics hub for Ukrainians; Russian advances noted.

Summary of War Dynamics

• War characterized as a war of attrition focusing on time, resources, and morale.
• Uncertainty on who will prevail in the conflict.

Political Developments at Munich Security Conference

• Shift in US-European dynamics under President Trump:
  • Emphasis on European responsibility for Ukraine's future.
  • US troops not to be deployed; European troops expected instead.
• Discussion of a potential demilitarized zone:
  • Russian perspective seeks territory east of the Dnepr.
  • Importance of controlling access to the Black Sea and resources.

Future Considerations

• Europe’s role in future global dynamics is uncertain.
• Hybrid warfare tactics affecting European societies.

Conclusion

• The world order may be changing, with shifting power dynamics among major nations.
• Importance of understanding these changes for Europe's future.