Welcome to the Austrian Military Academy! I'm Markus Risner Reisner, I'm the head of Institute 1 for Officer Basic Training and today, in a new video about the war in Ukraine, we would like to give you an overview about the situation which is currently taking place in Ukraine. Tthe title of our video is "Ukrainian Purgatory" and it should give you an hint on how tense the situation is at the moment and how it might develop in the near future. We have today day 1090 of the war for Ukraine. Let us start and have a look at Phase 7 of this conflict. What happened in the last 12 months? First of all, we can see that there were battles fought along three main locations. There was Kursk (Курск) in the northeast of Ukraine, there was Charkiw (Харків) in the south of Kursk and there was of course the long front line from Kupjansk (Куп'янськ) down to Saporischschja (Запоріжжя). What we saw in the last 12 months is, that the Ukrainians were trying to defend or delay the Russian troops and of course they were also attacking in the Kursk-region. When we compare the amount of territory, every side was able to conquer some. We see 4,500 km² on the Russan side, but only 500 km² on the Ukrainian side, mainly in the region of Kursk. To visualize the situation on the front we would like to use a metaphor: a boxing match between two very different boxers. On the one side we see the Russian boxer in this case Walujew, a Russian boxer. On the other side here we can see the British boxer Haye, he's representing the Ukrainian side. As a boxer Walujew won 50 fights out of 53. He only lost twice, because the opponent was in the beginning of the fight acting very fast, like the ukrainians did in the beginning of the war. B but all the other 50 fights he won, because he followed the principle of attrition and this is exactly what we see also in the war of Ukraine. Now we're in a new phase, Phase 8 and this phase started with the inauguration of US President Trump and it looks like that there might be peace talks in the next months or in this year to come. So now let's have a look at the three levels of fighting in Ukraine in Phase 8. The first level is the strategic level. What we can see here is, that the Russians still follow their strategic objective and this is to destroy the critical infrastructure. We already see the third air campaign against the critical infrastructure of Ukraine and we know that about 80% of the critical infrastructure is either destroyed or heavily damaged. We see, that the Russians are conducting combined strikes to inflict, by using the principle of saturation, high losses on the Ukrainian side. We see, that they use ,on a daily basis, of up to 140 drones to saturate the Ukrainian air defense and every 2-3 weeks they use a lot of cruise missiles to attack the critical infrastructure. And as you can see here, most of the attacks already take place in the depths of the country, which makes it quite difficult for the Ukrainians to maintain the critical infrastructure. Let us have a look at the strategic strike results from the Russian side. First of all let's start with the drones. On an average basis up to 440 drones are flying into the airspace of Ukraine. We can see here that we have already doing a months up to 2,500 drones, which have this saturating effect on the Ukrainian air defense. On the other side every two weeks or three weeks we see attack with cruise missiles and in this video you can see actually that those cruise missiles hit their targets in this case an industrial factory in Kiev. The ukrainians try to conduct their own counter strategic offensive. And what do they do? They use long range drones to attack targets of interest in Russia, mainly the oil industry. They managed for example in the last months to hit 20 out of 30 main oil industry facilities. Here, a short video from Smolensk (Смоленск). You can actually see here a Ukrainian drone flying in and you can see a Russian Panzir system trying to hit the Drone, which works. But you see already the next drone which is coming in and then hitting the target. How is it possible for the ukrainians to conduct this strategic air campaign against the Russians? Because they use very innovative technologies. And, by using those Technologies they can actually produce long range strike drones which they use against targets in Russia. But the question is: Can the Ukrainians maintain this rate of fire long enough to make sure that the Russians really suffer from these attacks or not? Let us now have a look at the operation level, that means along the front line. What we can see here is, that the Russian side have already up to 700,000 troops which are deployed along the front line. They use operational maneuver groups called SEVER, ZAPAD, CENTR, YUG, VOSTOK and DNEPR. On the other side of the front we see the Ukrainians with about 400,000 troops and another 400,000 troops in reserve or securing the north and norteast of the country . The problem is, that the space in between the different brigades is becoming bigger and bigger and these gaps are identified by the Russians and they attack by using those gaps. An average brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is holding a 27 km front edge with just 4 infantry battalions, which gives you an idea on how overextended those front lines are. While on the other side the Russians have a constant level of incoming troops from the rear, which reinforces the Russian units along the front line and which makes it possible for them to recover from high losses, which they have all over the front. The next important challenge on the operational level for the Ukrainians is the use of gliding bombs from the Russian side. The Ukrainians have the problem, that they only have limited air defense. They either use the air defense in the rear of the country, to secure the critical infrastructure, or they use them along the front lines. Why do they have to use them along the front lines? Because the Russians use a huge range of different types of these gliding bombs and in huge number. We know that just last year 44,000 gliding bombs were used of all 51,000 which were recorded during the last years. And it is the plan of the Russians to produce up to 70,000 gliding bombs this year. Here a video which shows you the use of a gliding bomb, with the weight of 3,000 kg in flight, on the way to the target. Once again I would like to emphasize the situation along the front line. We see that the incoming brigades of the Ukrainian forces have problems. On one side with staff sortage but also with the training, which also affects the morale. There is one example of the 155th uh Brigade from the Ukrainian side, which arrived at the front and a lot of soldiers actually ran away. The problem is that the front line is completely overextended and it's very difficult for the Ukrainians to hold the lines with this limited number of troops. Once again, I also want to emphasize the example of one brigade in a 27 km extended range. When we now look at the tactical level, then of course we can also see here, that the Russians, by trying to use the principle of "Death by a Thousand Cuts", attack all over the front and wherever it is possible, to find gaps in the Ukrainian defense positions and then try to sneak through or attack through and attack further west. The good thing for the Ukrainians is, that they're using a lot of of these so-called first-person-view-drones, which makes it possible for them to hold the lines and to fight against the Russians. Here, a short video which shows a typical attack of the Russian side along the front line, in this case at Kursk. You can see a small battle group, consisting of several tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and they are going in a column in direction of the Ukrainian defense lines. You can see the dismounting infantry and the infantry attacking the Ukrainian positions. What do the Ukrainians do? Whey either use first-person-view-drones or artillery to stop this attack. So why are these first-person-view-drones so successful? First of all, let us have a look at the front lines. You can distinguish between several different areas along the front line. You have a Rear Area. You have a Close Area, this is where most of the battles are taking place. And then you have a Deep Area, this is where the long range strikes take place. When you look now at the distance, then you can see, the farther the distance the more important is the use of artillery. But the closer the distance, the more the use of first-person-view-drones is important. And because of the fact that, most of the battles are taking place in the Close Area, the first-person-view-drones are very important. Nevertheless the problem of the Ukrainians is they still need artillery to fight against the Russian artillery. This is what is becoming problematic, because they are still lacking ammunition actually to maintain a constant level of flow to the artillery units. We know that North Korea delivered twice so in the last year and in the year before 3 million artillery shell to the Russians, while on the other side Western countries delivered last year 1.6 million artillery shells to the Ukrainians and in the year before 1.3 million. The use of first-person-view-drones is really a nightmare for both sides. We can see that both sides are using very innovative ideas and methods to counter these drones. One example can be we can see here. You can see the Russian side was trying to secure a line of communication by the use of nets. So they use the netting to make sure that no drone can attack one of the vehicles on this line of communication. We also know that about 60% to 80% of all first-person-view-drones don't hit their target, but still 60%, up to 70% of all damaged and destroyed vehicles are the result of first-person-view-drones. This gives you an idea how important these drones are. So now let's have a look in detail on certain parts of the front. Let's start in the north, at Kursk. What you can see here, is that the Russians are trying to attack Kusrk from different directions. The Ukrainians try to hold this terrain as long as possible, to have it as a bargaining ship in possible future negotiations. The ukrainians tried three times to counterattack. Last year to the west of the penetration area, just a couple of weeks ago to the northeast of the penetration area and last attack we have seen, to the southeast of the penetration area. We would like to show you a few pictures of the third Ukrainian attack and how the Russians tried, by the use of first-person-view-drones, to counterattack. As you can see here in these videos, Russian wired first-person-view-drones are attacking Ukrainian tanks and vehicles. I would like once again to emphasize the importance of these drones, because by using these drones you can actually counter the electromagnetic spectrum and this makes it so important for both sides to to use them in the battle. Let us have a detailed look at one of these first-person-view-drones. You actually can see the drone itself, you can see the affector and you also can see the cable or wire which is used by the drone. This gives you the possibility to counter any jamming system of the opponent's side and to attack up to distances of 10-15 km sometimes even up to 40 km. Now let's have a look at Charkiw and Kupjansk. As you know, in Charkiw the situation is more or less a stalemate. But what we can see in Kupjansk is, that the Russians managed actually to form bridgeheads on the far side of the Oskil (Оскіл) river and there might be an operation from the Russians to do a pincer operation and to break this huge amount of Ukrainian territory out of the Ukrainian country. When we now look a little bit in detail in the bridge heads, then we can see here, that the Russians managed to cross the Oskil river and to form a staging area for any further attack. The Ukrainians try, by using their drones, to penetrate into that staging area and destroy the vehicles there. The same situation we also see in Tschassiw Jar (Часів Яр). Here the Russians managed to overcome the situation along the Siwerskyj-Donbas canal and they managed to form bridge heads on the other side of the canal, at the heights of Tschassiw Jar. They're already controlling a significant part of Tschassiw Jar and have a clear view direction west. The situation is even more tense at Pokrowsk. After the breakthrough at Otscheretyne (Очеретине) the Russians advanced further, direction west. They bypassed the city of Pokrowsk and started to cut the first lines of communications into Pokrowsk. Pokrowsk is an important city, because it's an important logistics-hub for the Ukrainians and it might be also an important logistics-hub in the future for any Russian operations in direction west. We can see the hotpots here to the southwest of Pokrowsk and we also see it in the east, direction Torezk (Торецьк). Another cauldron was formed by the Russians in the last months in the area of Kurachowe (Курахове) and it pretty much collapsed completely already. There only small fights in the area of Datschne (Дачне), west of Kurachowe. The fight in the Dombas is especially raging around heights or hills, like you can see here in Torezk. Torezk is complet completely destroyed but you can see here in the rear these little hills which are very important for both sides, because if you have these hills under control then you can control the immediate surroundings. This is why there's a lot of intensive fighting going on around these hills. If we now summarize what I have said in the last minutes, then we can see very clearly that also the last 12 months were, more or less, a war of attrition. And we can see that there especially the question of time and resources and of course of morale. Who will be the winner in that conflict? And that brings me back to the picture I have shown you before, the fight between the the Russian boxer against a "Ukrainian" one, and who will prevail... Now let's jump from Ukraine into the heart of europe. Just recently the Munich Security Conference took place and what we have seen here is that there was some kind of a political earthquake developing. First of all it started with some things Trump said in direction of the Europeans. The question is: Is Trump on the side of the Europeans or not? It became more clear when representative of the US government visited Munich. First of all, we had the visit of the defense minister, who said very clearly, that a return of Ukraine to the pre 20104 borders is an unrealistic objective and it's just causing more suffering. And, and this is important, it's not time for the US to step in. No, it's time for the Europeans to step into the arena, so to take responsibility. The next thing is that he said, any troops in Ukraine will be not American ones, it will be European ones. And they are not covered by the NATO Alliance Article 5. And, and this was the last thing, the American defense minister said NATO is nothing for the Ukraine. And this is important, because when we look in detail on all the supplies which are coming in from the Europeans and especially from the Americans then you clearly can see that the most important supplier is of course is the Americans. So if the Americans step back, the Europeans have to ask themselves: Will we fill this gap or not? The next thing which was interesting is that President Trump said he want his money back. So there was a contract offered to the Ukrainians to exploit minerals and rare a in the Ukraine. And it even leaked to the public, so we can actually see that it was the goal of the Americans to get at least access to 50% of these resources, which was rejected by the Ukrainian president Zelensky. Let us also discuss, a little bit more in detail, a possible future demilitarized zone. A lot of people think, especially in the west, that this zone is pretty much going along the front line maybe also going to the north, which is pretty much representing the Border in between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian perspective is a completely different one. The Russians want to have everything east of Kiev. Why? Because already now it is possible theoretically and practically by using long range weapons like the Storm -Shadow, to hit a Target by using that rocket from the area east of Kev in direction of Moscow. So any demilitarized zone from the Russian side has to be pretty much everything east of the Dnepr, to avoid any threat to Moscow by Ukrainian, or even European, missiles like the Storm-Shadow. And if you now look in the Russian social media, then you pretty much can already see that idea. So you can see that pretty much Russia has occupied, in the future, maybe, everything east of the Dnepr. And they also want to have the terrain to the west of the Dnepr and the south, because they want to deny any access of the Ukrainians to the Black Sea. They want to control Odessa and they want to have a land bridge to Transnistria. And that would make Ukraine a landlocked country which would loose access to their important resources in the west and in the south of the country. It seems the Europeans still haven't understood what it looks like and they still haven't understood what the these American plans pretty much mean, not only for Ukraine but also for Europe itself. And of course there are lot of questions, especially when it comes to the so-called Mission in Ukraine, the use of European troops in Ukraine. Let us once again have a look at the distances. Here I have put Ukraine and its borders into the centre of Europe. So you can see this long front line from Switzerland up to the Czech Republic 1,100 km. Plus, another two front lines, one at Charkiw, 'to the west of Prague' and one at Kurks which is pretty much 'to the south of Berlin'. So this is about 1,300 km. The distance from Switzerland to the Czech Republic is already like from Berlin to London, just to give you an idea. And now the question is: These European troops how many do we have to use along these lines? And, especially, it's not only about troops along the lines but also they need some kind of capabilities in the different domains for example a robust Air Force or something like this. And of course there is also the question about the mandate. What kind of mandate will they have? Will be the UN Security Council come up with a mandate or not? And these are all questions which are not answered at the moment. But on the other side, we can really see that Putin already has won a big victory. Why? Because President Barack Obama said, that Russia is a regional power, he said that in 2014. Now, when you look what words Trump used referring to Putin, then you can actually see that they are talking about a competitor. So that means he's actually on the same level like the US. You can also see that um Trump says, that Putin is a world leader which, brings him also on the same level. And of course that only a country is able to produce peace which are also able to produce strength. And this is already a big win for Putin. He is back in the global arena, that's what he always wanted after 2014. And when we now quote the head of the Munich Security Council at the end of the event, then we can clearly see how difficult the situation has now become for the Europeans. He's saying that it has become an European Nightmare and no one knows what the situation will bring in the near future. While the Europeans are still stunned and shocked by the American messages, the hybrid war against Europe is still ongoing. We not only can see that Russia is conducting aimed and targeted sabotage actions against European countries and NATO countries, but we also can see that they are conducting cognitive Warfare against our societies. At the end of our today's briefing, I would like to use this AI-generated picture to give an idea how the world looks like maybe in the future. First of all this AI-generated picture refers to a very important and prominent historical event. In "today's version" you can see the leader of China, United States and Russia and we can see that the world is changing already. The world's old order is maybe not valid anymore in the future and the resources are already flowing in different other regions of the world. And this is the important thing for us Europeans, because we have to consider: What is our role in the future of the world? That conclude our briefing for today. I would like to say thank you much for your attention and see you the next time!