Transcript for:
Time Frame Selection and Defining Setups for Trading Models

okay folks welcome back this is the first of eight teachings in the third month of the ict mentorship and this topic is going to be specifically dealing with the time frame selection and defining setups for your model okay for time frame selection there's a couple things that we break down in general ideas and terms for the monthly chart we use this for position trading and for folks that are intraday um intolerant that means you can't do anything in uh lower time frames uh the monthly charge actually going to do a lot of assistance for your trading and your analysis so don't don't be discouraged by the fact that i do a lot of intra-day work and short-term trading you'll be shocked to learn as we go through this mentorship the precision and the accuracy that i have has a lot to do with the direction that's derived by the information on the monthly chart but as it is the monthly charts are the basis if you will for our long-term position trading now i can admit to you like i've done many times in the past i am not a long-term trader i don't have the personality to to hold on to a position that long i tend to change my mind a lot and that doesn't fit well for a long term position trader so if you're a person it takes a long time to make a decision uh it comes hell or high water you're sticking with it that's probably the avenue that would best suit you as a trader now i can't determine that no one can do that but you and that's going to come by way of you actually doing trades if you get real scared or if you get real hyper about the the short-term nature of trading if you trade on these longer-term charts or at least trade off of the the ideas that come from the monthly charts it removes a lot of the price action shock that comes with intraday trading or short-term trading the weekly chart we use that for swing trading now swing train's a little bit more frequent than long-term position trading uh swing trading is invite by my definition it's typically a one or two trades within a three month period so every quarter of the year in other words every three to four months there's going to be a setup that takes place and you can find them very easily on a weekly chart but because the weekly chart is much like the monthly in regards to how long it takes to form the setups it takes a great deal of patience and while i am attributed to having a lot of patience it's not that great in other words the well doesn't go that deep i don't have that much of patience so the weekly chart again while i may not be trading specifically on the setup itself i will use those ideas to help frame the short-term trades that i take or even in day trades but for swing trading again for those individuals that can't be in the marketplace on a very intraday minute by minute basis again this the weekly chart will actually serve you very well you don't have to do a whole lot of trading it's a whole lot of time in between the setups and much like the monthly chart it removes that that initial shock of short-term volatility now the daily chart that's where we do our short-term trading the daily chart to me personally i believe this chart is the best chart there is because it gives you the best of both worlds it gives you a long-term perspective it gives you all of the near-term banking levels so all the levels that the banks would be interested in all the large funds would be interested in you can clearly see those on this daily chart the daily chart also gives us the framework to do a lot of analysis for short-term trading so it has the benefits of higher time frame but not to the degree of weekly and monthly but it does give you a higher time frame perspective so if we can arrive at strong analysis reference points in terms of institutional order flow if we can look at points at which there may be stops there may be a liquidity void there may be a fair value gap these ideas much like we said in the first month of this mentorship what things you should be specifically focusing on those ideas if you apply that to the daily chart you'll have a plethora of setups and plenty of things to trade on now you can trade on a daily chart again if you are the type of trader that hasn't the opportunity to trade in front of the charts being the intraday price action or again if you're not comfortable trading in those lower time frames the daily chart does a very good job of suiting uh swing traders and short-term traders so that to me is the reason why i like the daily chart the best if there was a a chart selection i had someone hold a gun to my head uh which chart would i'd like to trade off of it would be the daily chart because it gives you a great deal of range to work within it gives you the inter bank levels to be monitoring where stops would be residing um where long-term objectives would be seen in form of liquidity above or below the marketplace and again i i counsel you that can't be in the day trading models that we use to try to at least try your analysis on the daily charts you try to work on those uh specific time frames and if you still feel very sensitive or scared or if you have a lot of information emotional or influence over your emotions by watching price on the daily chart seems a little still too fast for you move up to the weekly chart okay there's nothing wrong with doing that it just takes a lot more time and unfortunately some of you that are listening you may have a business you may have a lot of things going on in life maybe you're a college student okay maybe you can't be in in in front of the price action on an intraday basis when we trade these higher time frames you're going to see that there's a lot of movement available but you're going to have to submit to a lot of time too and now obviously four hours or less is day trading and we're not going to speak too much about day trading in this particular teaching because there's a lot of things that we got to go in regards to day trading and specific concepts that are inherently related to time of day so while we're not going to teach that here uh the focus is time same time frame selection and what time frame are we using these uh specific time frames for now defining setups for your model now it's important as a mentor i don't try to force you into a specific mold it's never been my goal to give you a copy me be just like ict that's not going to work it's never going to work for anyone but it does give you a goal it gives you a framework to work within while striving for replication of some of the things you probably see me do you're going to discover the trader that actually resides in you and when that happens and no one knows when that's going to occur you'll know it by experience being in the marketplace looking for specific things and studying in one day and it sounds like you know a fairy tale but it really is you'll have an epiphany where all of these things will suddenly make sense to you and you'll know what type of trader you want to be and what's even better is you actually know what setups did you like it's one thing for me to say i like a four hour turtle suit cell into a bearish order block that's seen on a daily chart well that might be a setup that you can't wait for okay it may require you a lot more patience than you have to do that um that same setup if it was done on say for instance a weekly turtle suit sell into a monthly bearish order block you know i can't wait for that i would never have any trading opportunities because they don't happen that often but if it just happens to be the time when you look at the charts and you see that formation then obviously that's your setup but your pattern or your bread and butter go to setup once you understand it it's applicable on all these time frames what makes the time frame selection process unique and why it's important for you as a trader to determine how you're going to trade it is because your comfort level and your psychological makeup as a trader has to align with that so in other words your patience level your aptitude and your life i mean let's just be real about it your life has to allow you the ability to be in front of the charts or at least do the analysis and then execute on that analysis so when we look for setups we have to find setups that are uniquely defined for your specific trading model and a lot of folks will say you know ict you got a lot of tools you have a lot of things that you know you you have a ton of things okay do we have to know all these things no that's the that's the benefit of studying conceptually and modular things because you'll quickly ascertain whether or not a specific pattern or concept gels with you in other words does it resonate with you as a trader you're going to find that some of the systems and and things out there and analysis aren't really uniquely attractive to you as a trader and i've i experienced that as a trader coming up it wasn't a lot of things out there that i got excited about but uh the few things that i did in early early in my days it was commitment of traders report accumulation distribution things of relating to patterns i liked the patterns because i wanted to see specific things that repeat because obviously like anything else you know if you can see something coming you know obviously you know what to do should you see an opportunity coming uh the problem is is many of the things i was studying i couldn't find them real time or before they actually came to fruition so as i refined my trading model and specifically dealt with institutional order flow and price action then suddenly it was like the veil was lifted and i had blinders removed from my eyes then i could see setups that made very specific formations and they had specific criteria that i can really define and make it very objective about how i trade which is what i was looking for as a trader when i first started but when i first started i was looking at indicators thinking that was going to be the answer and you probably if you're listening you probably have had that same feeling like you want to feel informed you want to feel like you know what you're looking for but because you don't and it's normal for you not to know what that is when you first start trading even for some that uh waffle for the first couple years and they still can't find the rhythm they will sometimes look to an indicator to give them a a reason to do something and because this they need to be told something outside of their own ability to you decide and sometimes you'll you'll see that the indicator will lead you to a setup but then most of the time it really doesn't and it's because most of your trades are linked to a mathematically derived indicator when we look at setups we're looking at specifically finding unique characteristics that repeat themselves over and over again in price action because there are generic characteristics and traits in price action that repeat over and over again they're not limited to any one of these specific time frames so when we look for specific setups we're going to find a setup that we individually as a trader like the most the one that we can see easily and you're going to see that while some of them overlap some of them won't overlap but they still will give you an opportunity to be in the marketplace in the right direction so a trend trader that's one model that a trader can be using all my concepts with uh you'll be trading only in the direction of the monthly and weekly charts so in other words if the monthly and weekly are indicating it's going to be a bearish marketplace you're going to only be trading short and holding on to these positions for a great deal of time if it's bullish on the monthly and weekly chart obviously you're going to look for buy signals you're going to hold them for a great deal time that is the nature of trend trading and again i am not a long-term position trader so while i tried that early on in my career it didn't fit me and it didn't tickle my fancy so i'm a short-term trader now swing trader which i've done a lot in my early days but because i found that it was more of an allure for me to be in the marketplace more than just a couple times a month a swing trader they're trading the daily intermediate term price action and you're going to see there's a lot of setups that require you to sit on your hands and wait but when they form and you position yourself in them they offer stellar rewards and they just go on and on and the payouts are amazing but again it requires a great deal of patience so i can tell you as your mentor i just don't have a lot of patience for swing trading on the daily chart it just takes too much time to wait for the setups and for the trades to pan out i want my money to have velocity in other words i want to be able to put my money at work let it do its thing get my return and then compound that returned rate and my base equity and put it back to work again into something that gives me more velocity so when i say these things i'm not trying to talk those individuals that are comfortable trading on a monthly chart or weekly chart i'm trying to tell you that me personally what i found about myself as a trader my defined setups are on a lower time frame than the daily chart so it requires a little bit more dynamic study and time in front of the charts but that's what my unique model is i i excel in that that approaches trading you again may not be set up psychologically or emotionally prepared to trade like that and there's nothing wrong with that so don't think that i'm trying to force you into a specific trading model or a mode of trading you're going to discover that as we go through these 12 months also you're going to learn this is how i started as a contrarian trader okay now it doesn't always mean that being contrarian is the right way to go about it and it doesn't mean that not being a contrarian is the right way always as well there's going to be times when to be a contrary in trader is optimal and what you're basically doing is you're trading reversal patterns at market streams so when the market's really gone a great distance higher and it's been moving higher for a long period of time eventually it's going to hit a specific level or significant level i should say usually and typically it's on a higher time frame it will create reversal patterns now it doesn't mean the market's going to reverse and create a top there it can and sometimes it will but you can still trade reversal patterns at extreme moves or what would become referred to as capitulation where the market just moves extremely you know that last bit of burst higher if it's been bullish or that quick sudden drop you know with a great deal of magnitude going lower and it usually makes the low of the move generally sometimes you're going to see that there will be times where you want to be contrarian and see that move as a blow-off move and it's the end of the move and you can probably get some really good setups in the form of a reversal pattern but it doesn't always have to require capitulation it could be on a short term basis where if you watch the daily chart we may go above a previous month time and that may be a really good selling scenario to sell short but not forever but it's still an opportunity to trade with and then for short-term trading which again that's what i excel in uh you're trading the weekly ranges and you're holding for typically about one to five days in duration and then obviously setups that are found for the day traders model where you're trading intraday swing trading with exits by 2 pm new york time and when we look at this this is the actual uh broad brush idea of everything that i do as a trader everything i've done as a trader how i excelled from using long term higher time frame charts down to what we're seeing here in uh number five and number four uh in respective uh terms of time frame selection uh four hour or less that's you know where i excel at and then my setups are day trading in nature now again because i have a universal application and i have experience doing all these types of trading just because i don't elect to trade on a monthly or weekly or daily all the time what i'm actually telling you is i can do that but because of my appetite for more action and because i want to put my money at work faster get it ready to return and put it back to work again so i can turn it in and capitalize on velocity turning my money over and over and over again quicker i have adopted the mindset that that's my goal that's my pursuit so therefore to do that more efficiently and expediently it's going to be in the form of day trading or short-term trading do not let me convince you or try to talk you into that's the best way to go because it's not it's not for everyone so you can still compound your money exceedingly well trading on a higher time frame charts believe me it's not about the setups or the time frame it's about your unique alignment with the setups and the time frame that meets the happy medium for you as a trader because all of us have a family all of us have real world tug of wars that take place you know some of us have spouses that require a lot of our time you know some of us are in high maintenance relationships some of us are in codependent relationships some of you are not in a relationship okay some of you are you're doing things that are going to be a a barrier to you doing a lot of trading or a lot of studying and it's going to require you to do a lot more research and action in those higher time frame monthly and weekly charts and you daily but if i were to counsel you and you were going to listen to me i would suggest that you start in the daily chart even if you're going to know it in your heart of hearts that you're going to try to be a day trader start the daily chart because the daily chart is going to be a really good bellwether it's just the one that will give you everything you need to know with a lot of the higher time frame reference points and it'll also give you the directional bias that everybody looks for and they're always asking by way of email you tell me how to get in where where to buy and how do i know today's going to be up or down well you find that on the daily chart that tells you everything there and once you go through this teaching and the next teaching with institutional order flow you'll see how easy and uh the the daily bias is really it's not that hard but the problem is trusting it that's that's the hard part all right let's take a look at a monthly chart okay and the monthly chart its premise or its influence in your analysis is it's the long-term price action reference for the largest price action swings in trading now trading setups that take a great deal of time like this they form in a time frame that most people can't bring themselves to trade but when they unfold these setups that you see in the monthly chart they tend to unfold over a period of many months uh they don't just happen like little blips on a five minute or one minute chart they just go on and on and on now due to the length of time this chart requires to present setup trading in the direction of the most recent setup can yield the lowest risk with the highest reward conditions now what i mean by that is when you have the directional bias or trend i'll say it with quotation marks uh if you can see where the market's going to most likely go on a monthly chart you have a great deal of advantage by trading in that direction even if you don't catch the actual move that creates the optimal entry for a sell or a buy because it's a monthly chart the very nature of its time frame it gives us a great deal of time to still capture moves in that same directional bias or in that trend direction now swings that form on the monthly chart obviously they can be several hundreds of pips and it's going to require a long period of time to unfold but let's take a look at a sample size of price action on a monthly chart here now obviously we just turn our charts on we look at this is what's recently happened here and all of a sudden the very next month we see that okay we weren't watching price closely this particular market was unclear to us at the time but right away now we know that there's somebody in the marketplace moving price around okay and go back to the very first teaching in this mentorship where i tell you to look for markets that want to show a strong willingness to move away from a particular level now prior to that down move we saw price in a small little consolidation about 600 pips or so in in range and then finally the market broke down on a monthly basis so each one of these candles represents a month's worth of data and eventually the market takes a greater deal of magnitude lower its surge is lower and again take a look at how many pips this would be and obviously this is the euro usd the the move from 59.50 we'll call it all the way down to let's just say 2450 okay that's a lot of pips a lot of pips now when you see this it's rather shocking when you view it in terms of how many pips are available and it takes you three months to cover that much distance or a little bit well four months to cover it really so in four months the euro dollar trades a couple thousand pips okay now again each one of these ranges are specifically a monthly range in other words the highest part of that candle for each individual candle is the high it traded to the most for that that particular month and the low the candle is the lowest it traded for that month the opening is where the month started trading and then it closed is the last trading day of the month where it closed in these individual monthly candles there are a plethora of setups think about what you have there you roughly have about 20 trading days without holidays included you know things of that nature and non-farm payer which we don't trade but we'll just say roughly it's about 20 trades 20 trading days per one of these candles so every one of these bars represents 20 potential trading days now inside of those daily candles okay if we were to break them down okay there are individual setups as well now also and i skipped over this inside of these candles of representation of monthly data there are typically about four weekly candles and again inside the weekly candle there's a great deal of opportunities in there so i want you to think like that when we look at a seed okay if i were to show you a seed say for instance a a apple seed i placed an apple seed inside your palm and i asked you what you see obviously most of you would have very myopic view and say well you know obviously it's an apple seed i know i've seen it before but i want you to have that view where you see the apple seed yes but you see the potential that apple seed and how many trees that one seed could produce over time and with the all the the creation of all these new trees the obvious is that you'll have more apples so when we look at these higher time frames we look at as that's that seed okay that really high probability trade scenario exists in the monthly chart now most of you don't want to spend time in a monthly chart most of you could care less about what that monthly chart says or what it's done because there's no magic in the monthly chart because it takes what a whole month to create the problem is that's the wrong perspective you need to look at the monthly chart and say hey you know what if the monthly charts moving around okay and the monthly charts having sensitivity at specific levels who would be moving price around on these levels and obviously the answer would be large banks and institutions so if we have that mindset we can go into the monthly chart with a great deal more of appreciation saying okay well i know that the market's going to be driven by deep pockets if it's going to push price around on the monthly chart there's a great deal of deep pockets smart money banks institutions they're all going to be in here pushing price around so it's in your best interest to understand what that monthly chart's going to do and what it has already done in this case let's just say we opened up our chart and we saw the euro dollar here and this is what we see so right away without having any other forms of reference okay we don't need anything like that and this is how i'm trying to tell you understanding price action it's very pure i don't need to know where trend is prior to this sample size and data i don't need to know what indicators are indicating bullish or bearishness i don't need to know that either i don't need to know what crossing overs of any moving average that took place i decided where has price moved away from and was it it was it was a great deal of magnitude yes obviously we moved away very strongly from a consolidation around the uh 51 or 52 level up to the 5950 level okay so we had about 700 bit range or so and when we see this the way i want you to view prices your eyes goes immediately to that last up candle because we understand that smart money is going to sell and up moves they sold in that up candle kept it in a range and then finally it broke down below that of candles low so now the point is yes you've missed that boat the opportunity's missed you you couldn't sell short there because we're gonna assume that we're now just looking at the chart for the first time you as a trader can say okay i know that if it gets back up to that candle's low and again this is the monthly chart i'm going to have a trade and i'm going to define that trade by way of that specific up candles low so eventually when price does that we have many months before it actually does it over a year transpires now think about this now over a year transpires before price returns back to that up candles low or that bearish order block but soon as it hits it then you have a setup now the question is is when price hits that okay it takes a long time to get to that particular level but as price was trading around that 127 30 level and eventually it trades through the 130 50 level up through the 132 level okay we have an indication that the price is probably going to want to go back up and there are stops obviously around that 146 level with that big up candle right here this big up candle right in here it's going to be stops resting above that high again thinking about that concept that i gave you what to focus on now in the september content of this mentorship so we have this candle breaking above this down candle this bullish candle here all of a sudden now we have a willingness to to do what we expect to see price try to trade back down into this down candle and it does it here so we can expect to see bullishness here so if we see this we know that there may be some bullishness on the upside okay and price may reach up above to take these stops and if it does that it may reach back up here to this bearish order block so when it finally gets back up to that parish order block we've had two instances where we can see where prices on a monthly chart broke down trade all the way down here we can see the bearish candle here that was violated on the upside and then it returns back into that down candle so we can see bullishness in the form of a bullish order block in that case we can see that price has a willingness to potentially range expand up into that return of that bearish order block right over here but when it does hit this when it finally hits that particular level there the question is where would price likely trade to next on the monthly chart again this is no different than what you see me do on a 15-minute chart and an hourly chart or even a daily chart but what where would you reasonably expect to see price trade from once it trades at this level here well what's under there we got basically equal lows but look at the bodies of the candles also it's too clean way too clean now again think this is a monthly chart folks monthly if we are looking at this right now for the first time and we sit in front of our charts and say okay i see this level being hit what could we do with this obviously we can expect to see price trading lower but why why lower below those lows is going to be what sell stops now the question is this who in their right mind would have sell stops below that low and the answer to your equate question is is large funds large funds long-term trend following funds will have stop loss orders right below that low they will leave stops in for a very very long time and they have lots of money in play so when the market trades at that basically that 50 80 level and it goes lower and expands lower it's rushing down to get to those stops that are residing below the 22 the 122 level and look at that last candle before it blows out the lows here all these lows in here that last candle when it hits it look what it does it explodes to run out those particular stops now again i want to remember remind you that this is a monthly chart so if we see this and we can outline where the market may reach up into which took a trade duration of six months to unfold but it took over 13 months to set up it took 13 months for this basically the trade up to get back to an area where we would see a setup form on the monthly chart but then once the formation comes into fruition look how many months it takes to unfold you got one two three four five six candles or six months look how much acceleration there is it's half the time half the time it took for this chart to unfold and set up the setup and then half the time or basically six months to get down to these stops in this setup okay in this setup i'm going to ask you a question what type of trader are you when price was hitting that 50 75 to 50 80 level or thereabouts what type of trader would you be there when price is most likely going to come down and clear out those stops you have several opportunities to choose from you can be a possession trader and be short around that 150 80 level 151 and look for a move all the way down to the 122's now think about that that's an enormous amount of time and potential range could you take that trade do you have the wherewithal to hold on to it personally i i couldn't hold that long but does that mean i can't trade this idea or these perspectives on on the euro dollar if i can see 51 big figure one you know it's 151 or we return back to that bearish order block as we're noting here at that orange level when price is trading there it spent two two months giving you an opportunity to get on board if you see that and the reasonable expectation would be okay well there's some equal lows down there it's probably gonna take a long time to do it but between the 151 level that we'll say and the 122 level there's our range so between those two reference points we have a known range to work within now again this is a monthly chart before all these down candles form we have the potential range identified so we can now break this down and say okay i already know where price may likely go relative to the monthly chart so how can we use this information going forward and go across all the spectrum of types of trading again it's over 2 900 pips for that price swing 2 900 plus pips so let's take a look at this swing on a weekly chart and refine that more in terms of defining setups for your trading model here's that same price swing and we're now looking at it on a weekly chart now this is an intermediate term price action reference point so everything we see here is on the scale of inter intermediate term so obviously because it's a weekly chart it still takes a great deal of time for these things to set up but it's a lot more refined when we break it down into a weekly chart you can see a lot more detail we can see obviously when the market trades back up into previous institutional reference points like this down candle right before the move up this down candle is a breaker but is it breaking it's breaking the old high here running out stops this breaker is lower than this one here so we're gonna have to refer to that one here as the initial run up trades up into this range right there there's a selling opportunity we already know that the range is potentially going to expand to run out based on the monthly chart that this is where the liquidity is going to be what kind of liquidity large fund liquidity so the market expands goes lower then consolidates again it trades lower and comes right back up into what a bearish order block so you can expect to see what another opportunity to sell off why because you're trading in the direction of the monthly chart but now you're expecting the weekly chart to expand and it's going to most likely expand down into this level where liquidity will be resting we could take this one step further and refine it down into a daily chart now obviously the daily chart is going to be a short term action based time frame where you can see all of the intermediate and you can see the short term highs and lows in the marketplace but more specifically you can see how you can actually frame your short term trades and your day trades now again we're not going to talk about day trading for this model here but for short term trading we're going to look at specifics that deal with that we know that the range is defined from a known high and a known low the high is where that bearish order block was on the monthly chart the low at which we're aiming for was those lows on the monthly chart where there were equal lows so we knew the stops that were resting below that so if we know that we can take our fib and lay it across those two reference points and by doing so we end up doing what we start grading that price swing so these levels that we have here these horizontal lines they're areas at which the market should see new setups for now here's the thing we knew the range before it actually traded so we can anticipate new trading scenarios or ideas to form in our charts when price trades at this particular level and setups will form in close proximity to these levels as well so every time we see this is the first quarter lower from the high down to the low so this is uh 25 of that range we see a setup in here okay market trades lower we go into equilibrium the market does what it trades lower it comes right back to equilibrium expands again comes back one more time returns into the range sells off again market sells off comes back up fills in a void sells off again one more time and closes and hits the terminus of the move now think all these things that we've been teaching so far they're repeating themselves but the thing is this was all outlined on a monthly chart but the trading ideas are refined further by breaking down the monthly chart into a weekly chart then weekly chart breaking that down into a daily chart now as a pattern trader or a setup seeking trader like you all are there are several things that we do in the ict camp we look for optimal trade entries which is a simple return back into a known range and that's the only indicator based ideas i like to use and it's based on fib and returning into a known uh open range the the other ones are obviously order blocks and then there's stop runs which we classically call the turtle soup which is a false breakout which is what you're seeing here every instance we see on this chart we have a short term high here now think inside this shaded area the monthly chart we used it to frame what the idea that we're going to go long term lower as we are in this shaded area until it ultimately hits the 2175 level or so we're going to be bearish on the marketplace so we look for what the marketplace on the daily chart to seek liquidity above old highs why would they want to do that the markets traded lower this short-term high relatively equal to this one here there's going to be buy stops resting above that short-term high they run above it and then explodes lower okay we have a short-term high here the market trades above it and then explodes lower i want you to notice every single time that the market takes out a short-term high just by a little bit and then quickly accelerates on the downside why is that taking place because they're absorbing liquidity on the buy side they want to pair up their orders to sell into those known participants that want to they want to buy here with their trailed stop loss in the form of a buy stock because think about if you're short how do you protect your position you put a buy stop above a recent high and then typically what will happen is the market will come back and knock you out and you'll start cussing or the market will move away in your favor and you can look for another point which you want to lower that stop loss protecting and locking in profit well what we do is we look for these opportunities in the form of false breaks above and all high with the idea on a higher time frame chart that indicates that price may go lower so this is like a holy grail setup where it's absolutely barn burner you get in there and you look for a short term high to be violated on a daily chart look how many times it does it in the scope of all these many days but look at the logical areas at which it does it it's close to those those grades that we did on the overall total price swing that we expect to see it does it here we have it here we have it here we don't see it in here but if we go down to a large time frame you will see it and then we see another one in here as well so when we look at price okay if you are looking to trade only stop runs okay you first have to know why the stop run would be necessary or why would be influential in terms of price action and you get that from the higher time frame like we showed with the monthly chart you hold on to that bias until clearly you're in you're showing that you're wrong in other words this thing could easily turn around here and started trading all the way up and started getting violently bullish and that would have to obviously make you change gears or at least put paul's on the notion you expect to see the euro dollar to trade lower but until it does that or it hits the terminus or whether we ultimately think the price is going to go we stay with that mindset we stick with it so if you're not a stop run setup trader in other words you can't see turtle soups if you don't have the ability to trust that or note it what you're selling into okay is a high probability scenario where it's going to see an explosion in the higher time frame direction in this case down there's other things you can trade and they come in way of breakers and various order blocks now obviously the whole move starts back here with that monthly bearish order block that it trades up into but look what it does it comes in the formation of a turtle suit or a false break or run above equal highs taking out the buy stops and then what happens the market surges quickly okay then we had that previous uh turtle soup here but now look say you can't see the turtle suit no problem there's absolutely no problem this down candle in here right before the move up above this short term high that down candle is a breaker and you'll learn about that in this mentorship but as price is trading in here and trades back up into the breaker you can now expect to see price to trade lower and it does that we have another breaker in here down candle right before the up move that takes out a previous high so you can't see the turtle soup here no problem see it in hindsight the market's already moved down here when trades back up into that breaker you can go short what about if you are an optimal trade entry trader you pull the fib from this high down to this low you'll get a 79 where your optimal trading should get short okay then you have another breaker here you have a down candle right before this move above this short term high okay when price trades back up up to it here you get short at that breaker sell off boom what about this one here this is a bearish order block last stop candle right for this down move returns to that level sell it short and there it is what you're doing is you're using the higher time frame and you're using your defined setup for your model if you're a trader that's focusing on being short you need to identify what pattern you're going to be looking for it could be one or two but it's important to know one you only need one good pattern and i only have really technically three i trade inside of a range okay where i'm pulling back into a an exposed range okay or if it's bullish and it rallies up i'm waiting for the pullback to close in that range and then i'm going to buy it again or i'm selling at a bearish order block or i'm selling short into a run above a previous high for for self stops i'm only taking three setups there's only really three setups that i trade i'm trading inside the range if there's nothing that i can see as a violation above old high or below low i'm selling above a previous high if i'm bearish or i'm selling a previous bearish order block if i don't believe that it's necessary to go up for those stops and you'll learn when those conditions are there because i know what you're thinking that's the thing i need to know ict that's the one because if it's me trading back to a bearish order block but it could potentially be a turtle soup how do i know which one you're going to learn that but i got to give it to you in pieces at a time so again when we look at the market like this and we have our time frame selection and then we have our setups for our particular trading model and that model is going to be defined by you over time no one's going to be able to tell you this is how you do it okay i'm giving you suggestions and the three setups that i particularly trade you're going to be able to gravitate to one of them and it may be order blocks but for some of you the order block is going to be problematic it's going to be i don't know which one to trust but you'll clearly see where the stop runs are and you'll be able to trade turtle soups but maybe you can't do that either well you'll trade in liquidity voids okay you'll wait for the price to come back down close in a range and then you'll wait for expansion to happen but the point is these three forms of discipline that i use for trading they always exist in all time frames it doesn't matter if you like order blocks and your best friend you're trading uh you're studying with and you're comparing notes with which you really shouldn't be doing by the way as i say that in this mentorship but if uh you know if you're if you're seeing other people talk about their ability to do certain things and you feel frustrated that they are excelling in an understanding of order blocks and you are struggling but you can see the the turtle suit run on stops that's your pattern don't force it don't try to just because order blocks or somebody's showing a lot of trades because they can see their order block there's no preference over this it's whatever i see at the time when i turn the charts on and if there's a void and it comes back into that void i know what i'm going to do i'm going to look for that run to try to run that previous high if we if we rallied up and we created a liquidity void on the upside when that trades back down to that range i'm going to buy it with an expectation it's going to make a new high and that's the only setup i'm looking for i'm not looking for 5 000 pips i'm just looking for that known range and you'll learn all that but don't think that i'm forcing anyone to be any one particular trader but you will learn these three conditions in the marketplace because that's the only three i trade with today i don't do anything outside of that i don't trade overall patterns i don't trade uh you know all the things that i shared the past they were all hallmarks of my uh you know coming up as a trader but i don't do all those things today i only trade these three things and i don't need anything more in fact i could just reduce it to one but because i like a lot of action um i will look for these three things every single day across the charts and i'll find the setup and i've seen i've shown it to you proven to you on a daily basis when you understand these three characteristics in price action nothing evades you not a reversal not a trend following pullback and not a expansion out of a consolidation nothing will evade you you'll have everything you need to know in a repertoire and a toolbox to trade any market profile so with that i'm gonna wish you good luck and good trading