Lecture Notes: Demographic Transition Model

Introduction

• Welcome to Mr. Sin's lecture on the Demographic Transition Model.
• Covers stages 1-4 and possible stage 5.
• Includes important vocabulary relevant to population and migration.
• Use guided notes for better understanding.

Demographic Transition Model Overview

• Models how countries change over time focusing on death rates, birth rates, and increase rates.
• Explains how countries grow and shrink demographically.

Stage 1: High Fluctuating

• Characteristics:
  • High birth rates (CBR)
  • High death rates (CDR)
  • Low natural increase rate (NIR)
• Description:
  • Unstable society, reliant on hunting and gathering.
  • Affected by food shortages, disease, and war.
• Current Status:
  • No countries currently in stage 1.
  • Historic relevance as it represents early human societies.

Stage 2: Early Expanding

• Characteristics:
  • High CBR
  • Rapidly declining CDR
  • High NIR
• Causes of Transition:
  • Industrial Revolution: Economic growth and new medicine.
  • Medical Revolution: Diffusion of medical advances.
• Societal Impact:
  • Cultural lag in accepting new societal conditions.
  • Large family sizes still common due to historic norms.

Stage 3: Late Expanding

• Characteristics:
  • Declining CBR
  • Continued declining CDR
  • Moderate NIR
• Causes of Change:
  • Urbanization leads to reduced family size needs.
  • Shift in societal mindset about family size.
  • Economic and cultural factors reduce the economic advantage of large families.

Stage 4: Low Fluctuating

• Characteristics:
  • Low CBR
  • Low CDR
  • Low NIR or Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
• Societal Changes:
  • Urbanization and larger stable population sizes.
  • Empowerment of women reduces birth rates.
  • Economic conditions make large families less advantageous.

Debated Stage 5: Declining

• Characteristics:
  • Low CBR
  • Increasing CDR
  • Negative NIR
• Factors:
  • Aging populations, as seen in Japan and Russia.
  • Cultural acceptability of small families or none.
  • Government interventions in family planning.
• Discussion:
  • Not widely accepted, sometimes considered part of stage 4.
  • Reflects challenges of supporting aging populations with fewer young people.

Conclusion

• Understanding the demographic transition model is crucial for comprehending population growth dynamics.
• Model explains changes in birth and death rates and societal impacts.

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