Hello there everybody in YouTube land and welcome to the Mr. Sin channel. Today we're going to be talking about the demographic transition model. This video is going to go over stages one through four, talk about the possible fifth stage, and we're also going to cover a bunch of different vocab that you're going to have to understand for this video and also for the rest of our population and migration unit.
So sit back, relax as we learn how do countries evolve over time, what's going on with population growth, and why does all this stuff really matter? Quality questions that... We will get to momentarily.
While watching this video, make sure to take out your guided notes. We're going to be going over a lot of different vocab in this video. We're going to be talking about different stages and a lot of different historical events.
There's going to be a lot of information. So use the guided notes. You can find them in the description below. If you click them, open them up, and start working on them while I go through the video, it'll help you better understand all of this information. So starting off, we have to just talk about what this demographic transition is about.
This demographic transition is looking at how countries over time change, specifically focusing on their death rates, their birth rates, and their increase rates. So we're looking at how eventually countries grow, how they shrink. What's going on with that whole process? And what are some of the causes that could occur with this?
So we're going to be breaking down in this video each of the stages. Now there's four of them. There is a possible fifth stage that is being debated right now.
And some people say it's already happening for certain countries, others saying it is to come. And some people just kind of put the fifth stage with the fourth, saying it's a natural park. And we'll get to that in just a little bit. But to start, we have to start with the beginning, which is going to be our stage one. So stage one of the demographic transition model is where the majority of human history has been.
Now one thing that you need to understand, and we're going to say it right off the bat, there are no longer any countries that are in stage one. Stage one, there may be some tribes or very small societies, but we no longer have countries. Now sometimes this gets debated by people.
They'll give kind of semantics and look at different examples of, oh well what about a civil war, does that push the country back? Or genocide or things like that. That is not going to be on the AP tests and don't get tricked by those things. There's no countries in stage one. The AP tech says it, the board says it, so we need to make sure that we understand that.
Everyone has progressed into stage two now for countries wise. There definitely can be tribes and maybe other things, but for countries, we're at stage two for them. Now, stage one though, the reason why we still talk about it is this again was where the majority of human history has been. It's a really important stage. Think about this as hunters and gatherers.
This is where we're going to be affected heavily by food shortages, disease, different environmental factors that will injure our population. War is going to be happening here. Very unstable.
We don't necessarily have a good understanding of the future in this stage. This stage is going to be made up, too, of a CBR that is very high. We're going to have a lot of births.
People are having a lot of kids. At the same time, though, we're also seeing a high CDR. People are dying a lot. We don't have a high life expectancy. Infant mortality would be very high here as well.
And what we start to see then, because our CBR is high and our CDR is high, if you notice, they're kind of at the same field. So we don't have a lot of growth. These two are kind of canceling each other out. So our NIR is low. It might not even be inexistent and we might be declining possibly, or even just at zero.
But for here, just remember it's low. We're not seeing a lot of growth. And that's because because of how unstable society is during this stage.
Now, eventually though, things start to change and we move into stage two of the demographic transition model. Over time, societies progress, they develop, they change, they evolve. And eventually they start to move into stage two of the demographic transition model. Now, there's a bunch of different things that could cause this. And we're gonna focus on two of the main ones.
These two historical events have pushed countries over one into two. Now they happen at different points. The first big push was for the European countries and also North America, where we saw the Industrial Revolution. This is where we started to see then new signs of economic growth.
We started to see new forms of medicine. The next big thing was also the Medical Revolution, which then brought parts of Africa, Asia into stage two, as we started to see the diffusion of both the inventions from the industrial revolution and also just medicine in general we start to see a lot of changes happen now they're not always accepted by society right away and we're going to break down what that means so in stage two we have our birth rate is still very high We're still having lots of kids, so that CBR is high. Now, the CDR is where we see change, and this is because of the Industrial Revolution, and also this Medical Revolution. The CDR starts to rapidly decline. So we have our birth rate up here, and all of a sudden, remember from stage one, they were even.
Also, now the death rate starts to go down. One of the things you can even see, just by this very basic example of my hands in different spots, is if we're having our births up here and our deaths over here, that increase rate... is going to shoot through the roof.
That escalates. We start to see high population growth and a population boom. But the question is why?
Well, one of the things with penicillin and vaccines and these new different forms of even economic means, meaning jobs, we see a transition in society. But at the same time, people don't accept it yet. So when I talked about culture not fully accepting things, it's because they didn't really understand yet.
what's happening. Now, what that means is eventually when new things come, it takes a cultural leg. So what's happening then is people are delayed. They don't fully realize. So people still are having, hypothetically, a family of 10, and they're still expecting that infant mortality rate to be high.
They don't realize that the infant mortality rate has gone down. So we're having families of 10 expecting that maybe only five of them will live. All of a sudden now, eight of them are living.
Nine of them. Maybe even all 10 kids live. And so we're seeing that population grow.
And there's a disconnect. The other thing that's happening too in this stage is we eventually start to see new forms of jobs take off. But we still have the majority of society in more agricultural work. So a lot of people still rely on bigger family sizes to be able to support them.
The big two things though here that are causing this stage to occur is the industrial revolution and the medical revolution. And they impact different parts of the world. With also diffusion then, we had it where these things became more accessible, pushing all countries into stage two. So again, high population growth, deaths are coming down, and our births are still high.
Now, the time has come though to get into stage three, as eventually we start to transition. And this is where the world starts to become a little bit divided. So in stage three, we start to see a lot of changes.
Now, these changes impact our CBR, CDR, and NIR. And I'm going to start. by going over that. Then I'm going to explain why this is happening.
While I'm explaining what was happening to the CBR and CDR and NIR, try to figure out for yourself before I even get to the answer. You might be able to figure this out before I even cover it. So we have our CBR from stage two, which was here. Our CDR is here and our NIR is very high because we have a lot more births than deaths.
In stage three, what starts to happen is now finally, all of a sudden our births start to drop. Now our CDR continues to go down. It doesn't go up and it's not staying the same. So we still have a division here. We still have our births here and our deaths here.
So we still have an increase. But our NIR has started to slow. It's become more of a moderate increase. So our NIR is going down now.
We're still growing, but not as much. Now the question is though, why? Why would this happen?
Take a second to try and figure it out. Pause the video if you need to. Brainstorm. What could cause this to happen?
If you're ready, we're going to go over the answers. One of the big things that happens in this stage is urbanization. We start to see people leaving the farms and coming into cities.
We also start to see some new ways of thinking. People start realizing we have kind of a mind shift change. They realize, hey, all 10 of my kids, they all lived.
I need to stop having kids. And so we see people accepting the new reality of society. Now, one thing you might be wondering is, well, why would living in a city decrease your family size?
As society becomes more urbanized and more industrialization happens, we don't see as many economic advantages to having large families. Now, there's still plenty of people even today that have a very large family. There's nothing wrong with that. But what we see overall for trends is when you live on a farm, especially in a rural community, and when you're in those lower stages of the demographic transition model, You're going to have a lot of kids to help you out around the house. It might be because of infant mortality and you're worried of people dying.
But as you start to shift into more modern day and we start to see more urbanization, it's more expensive. It's expensive to have kids in a city and it's expensive to just take care of them. They also probably aren't providing as much money or help for you, for the family. They have other things that they will be doing.
And so we start to see less advantageous aspects to life with that. And so people start to decrease their family sizes. And we also start to see just society change their mindset. And eventually this continues on into stage four. Now stage four is kind of where it all comes full circle.
Remember back to stage one when we talked about the high birth rate, the high death rate, the canceled out, and then our NIR essentially doesn't really exist or it's low? Similar thing is happening here in stage four and it's kind of interesting. For stage four...
Our birth rate is now low, our death rate is now low, and our NIR is going to be low, or ZPG, which means zero population growth. It'll be balanced. Now, the difference between stage 4 and 1 is we have more urbanization, we have a larger population size, it's stable, but in terms of population growth and birth rate and death rate, it's actually kind of similar.
Now, there's a bunch of reasons why this happens. In 3, we just talked about urbanization. As that continues and that trend continues, we start to see even less economic advantages to having kids.
We also start to see in stage four, women get more roles in society. Women are a really big crucial role in population growth. How society views women and their roles within society actually has a lot of impact on a society's population growth.
If women are no longer looked as... baby makers and now have the option to be able to participate in society and get jobs and have a career, they'll be having less children, which decreases that CBR. Our death rates are already low due to all the advancements in technology and medicine. And so we start to see things kind of become an even playing field. Even in like the United States and a lot of the developed world today, it's not uncommon for people to start having kids now as late as 25, 26, 27. Some people even in their 30s.
And women still only have a certain amount of years that they can bear children. We have their childbearing years. So when women go to college and they get a degree and then they start to work and join in the workforce, they have less time to have kids, which then just lets me not able to have more.
So our family sizes there are down. And also people are doing other things. A lot of people now also don't want to have families. They want to do other things.
They want to travel the world and see stuff and focus on their career. That also decreases it. So stage four, we start to see women empowerment, which decreases our population growth. And we also start to see more urbanization and just less resources to benefit people with lots of families.
If anything, in modern day America, it's really expensive. And you're almost at a disadvantage for having such a large family. And again, there's nothing wrong with having a large family. And if you have one, that's awesome. But now it's become more of a choice, not out of necessity, but because you want to.
And religion and other things impact those decisions as well. But as we see the progression of this model, we start to see culture change, we see mind shifts change, and just the way of life change. And that's why when we get to four, it's both low and we're no longer having growth.
For the total fertility rate, this is where we get around 2.1. This is the replacement rate. What that means is the average for society would be 2.1 children per woman.
And that means that we're not growing. We're going to stay consistent. Zero population growth.
Now, the next stage is the debated stage. This is not accepted by everyone. Some people say it's already happening with a very few amount of countries. Others say it's going to come. And some people consider this stage to be part of four.
Because one thing that can happen with stage four is as our population births keep going down and our deaths are also low, we might even have a negative NIR. But we're going to talk about the fifth stage now and get into why it's kind of debated and what would be happening there. Over the past couple of decades, the developed world has started to see some big changes.
And a lot of it stems to these technological advances that have actually helped us decrease our death rate. We've seen the death rate keep going down. We've also had cultural shifts, though, where large families aren't seen as advantageous anymore. And more and more people see it as culturally acceptable to have a small family or no family. And that's brought our births down.
What this has caused then is an aging population for a lot of countries, Japan being a perfect example. Russia as well has had a negative NIR for quite some time. And one of the things that this can cause is some issues within the structure of society. As the younger generation has shrunk in size, we no longer have enough people to be able to cover jobs.
The other thing too is as this transition continues and as we start to see this trend spread to other developed countries, the elderly support ratio increases and in some areas also decreases. But really all that's showing us is how many people are working to support the elderly. If we don't have enough people that are able to support and provide into things like social security or healthcare or pensions and to be able to support our elderly population, we see an increased death as people can't afford things.
Stage five is debated. Some people just keep it with four and some people say it's coming down the road. But what stage 5 is showing us is that we have a low CBR still.
It's not saying that births shoot up. Our death rate though, which for 4 remember was down, they're both level, our deaths actually do start to go up. And there's a variety of factors that this could be, through new diseases possibly, through poverty, overpopulation, there's a lot of speculation with it. And with that then, our NIR goes down.
We start to see a decline. Other things that can happen too, and we've seen these in the world today, is governments start to play a more active role in population control by promoting family planning or even just putting laws in place. For some countries, this is how they transition from three to four and how they continue to maintain their population the way they are. Like, for example, China with the one-child and now also two-child policy.
They've continuously tinkered with those laws to be able and try to create a society that works for them. So there's some things to think about. Is the fifth stage actually a thing?
Is it not? It's kind of up to you a little bit, but it's important for us to go over it so we have a good understanding of what's going on with the model. Thank you for watching this video.
I hope it gave you a very good understanding of the demographic transition model, some events that happen within each of the stages, what's going on with the birth rate and death rate and increase rate. If it did help, please subscribe. It helps me and also it'll help you because then when I post new videos, you can get notifications. If you want, you can even hit the bell. Until next time, though, I'm Mr. Sin, and good luck, world, with your population growth.