the race for the Arctic has dominated the headlines of various reports since the beginning of this Century whenever Arctic geopolitics was mentioned the prospect of a battle for the North's resources and trade routes grew with the global awareness of a warming climate especially in the far north anyone who looked at the map was quick to connect the dots since the climate in the Arctic is warming that means the ice is melting since the ice is melting new Mar time trade routes are opening up especially between Europe and East Asia thousands of newal miles shorter in addition the raw materials of this vast largely unexplored region of the world like oil gas and the rare earth metals essential to modern technology were to become a more accessible powerful Arctic countries such as the United States and the Russian Federation have lined up in the starting blocks of the aforementioned race as have countries not even close to the Arctic Circle such as China which declared itself a near Arctic state in 2018 but despite the fact that the Arctic has been the target of the superpowers and beyond for perhaps 20 years and despite the inevitable warming of the climate and the melting of the northern ice traffic along the Northern sea rout remains Frozen why do ship owners prefer to travel 9,000 km longer and sail around AFA Africa rather than along the Russian northern coast and how is the Arctic viewed in the great power game this and more on today's episode welcome to the 20s [Music] report consider leaving a like if you enjoyed the video to Aid the algorithm the boundary of the north polar Circle often refer ref to as the Arctic Circle is marked by the parallel 66° 33 minutes north interestingly this is not a fixed border it is defined by the southernmost latitude where the sun does not set for at least one day during the summer solstice and does not rise for one day during the winter solstice this line is in constant motion due to the Earth's axial tilt and changes by 15 M each year with a range of change of up to 2° or 266 km or 165 mi however we will have to wait Millennia for a more noticeable shift meanwhile the total area of the Arctic including the Waters of the Arctic Ocean is 20 million square kilm of which 40% or 8 million is land mass this is an area only 20% smaller than Europe's 10 million square km but much more difficult to access eight countries have a stake in the area and they also form the Arctic Council a platform designed to manage the Arctic they are Iceland Norway Sweden Finland Russia Canada the United States and Denmark in the form of Greenland which is an autonomous area of Denmark but a quick glance at the map shows that up to 92% of the Arctic circles landmass belongs to the latter three countries more than half or 52% of the Arctic territory belongs to the Russian Federation almost 23% to Canada while 177% to Denmark the Americans through Alaska account for 6% while the Nordic countries with the exception of Denmark have less than 1% of the Arctic Pi each reversing this relationship all three of the largest shareholders are eminently Arctic countries as much as 25% of Russia's vast territory is Arctic in the case of Canada it is 40% in the case of Denmark it is even 61% although here the situation is different as we are talking about the greenlandic autonomous area nevertheless still 60% of the Arctic is water and although when one thinks of the North Pole as the boundless ice sheet this is something of a cognitive error as the scientists of the national snow and ice data center write the average thickness of the the Arctic ice sheet used to fluctuate around 2 to 3 m while in recent years due to the climate warming it has become even thinner and is increasingly 1 to 2 m thick with a vast ocean underneath and this brings us to a segment that any material talking about the northern rout or essentially the Arctic must address climate change until recently scientists estimated that the Arctic was warming three times faster than the rest of the planet but the latest research by a team of Finnish scientists published in nature says the rate of change is up to four times faster since 1979 alone the temperature of the Arctic is said to have risen by 5° fah or about 2.8 de C whether we are talking about three times or four times the rate the change is rapid today seasonal ice in the Arctic Ocean which appears in the colder months and disappears in the warmer ones already accounts for up to 70% of the total ice cover and what more the Arctic is predicted to lose all of its seasonal ice cover very soon in 2040 or earlier and while climate scientists have been sounding the alarm on this issue for some time there are people or entities who are watching this process with growing interest and inevitable anticipation the the Russian Coastline accounts for as much as 50% of the Arctic Coast so at the time when it is increasingly and for longer periods I free this opens up an extraordinary opportunity for the Russians to take a large part in one of the world's largest commercial processes and the main mechanism of globalization Maritime transport just a few figures show the magnitude of this phenomenon trade in physical Goods in 2023 was estimated ated by unad the UN trade agency at $31 trillion 80% of this figure or 25 trillion was transported by sea naturally the vast majority of this trade takes place on the Europe East Asia Us West Coast access with key routes passing through points such as malaka Suz B Al mandab and Panama climate and geography completely blocked the routs along the northern coast of Russia or Canada until suddenly global warming opened the flood gates of its potential what's more other promising arguments started to emerge as well in 2008 the US Geological Survey estimated that 133% or 90 billion barrels of the world's undiscovered oil reserves are in the Arctic most of these resources are located in Alaska and the Russian Federation in addition to oil Dr natural gas fish and rare earth metals a year ago the swedes announced the discovery of a large deposit in their part of the Arctic Circle Greenland's huge potential in this area is also known and we even made material about it sometime ago all of this caught the attention of you guessed it the Chinese who despite the fact that they are not even close to the Arctic Circle declared themselves a near Arctic State as a part of their 2018 white paper Beijing was not hampered by geography in this regard and it was not a problem that China's northernmost point is 1,400 km from the Arctic Circle or 900 mil that's the same as warso Poland or Fargo North Dakota nevertheless with its Arctic strategy Beijing wanted to show that it has a vested interest both in the raw materials that lie in the Arctic which it is already importing from Russia Siberia among other places and in the sea Lanes which for northeastern China would actually shorten the route for ships Bound for northern European ports to this end the polar Silk Road headline has been enthusiastically promoted as the northern part of the one belt and one road project indeed for example the distance from China's largest port Shanghai to Europe's largest port Rotterdam via the Straits of malaka Suz and Gibraltar is near nearly 20,000 km according to MK the duration of such a voyage is 30 to 45 days meanwhile a voyage from the same port of Shanghai to Rotterdam via the northern route is 5,000 km shorter this means in theory a reduction in travel time from for example 35 days to only 26 in terms of logistics a difference of 9 to 10 days is a gulf this fast Festival of arguments in favor of the Arctic route didn't even end there as it received another crowning argument in November 2023 when Rebels from the houti movement began hunting Western commercial ships on November 19th 2023 They seized the Galaxy leader with 25 crew members and footage of the terrorist actions circulated around the world the crew remains in hoodie captivity to this day several more attacks followed causing insurers to suddenly and dramatically raise the price of insurance for ships passing through the B aland up straight traffic through the Red Sea dropped by as much as 85% according to turkey's anadol agency in such a situation many ship owners prefer to take the longer Route Around Africa rather than pay for insurance up to 1% of the value of the entire ship a 100 fold increase over the standard price and yet this is another extension of the route for our example of the Shanghai Rotterdam Cruise the circumnavigation of the Africa variant is up to 24,000 km or 9,000 more than the northern route so there is melting ice in the north a shorter way terrorists on the main route High Insurance costs and a lot of money at stake so sheep owners should press onto the gates of the north right the problem is that they don't Russia's interfax agency proudly reported at the end of 2023 that Russia's Northern route handled a record 37 million tons of cargo last year up from 34 million tons in 2022 millions of tons sound proud but over 11.5 billion tons or about 300 times as much passed through malaka alone in the same period carried board 990,000 commercial vessels how many ships passed through the Northern sea route we don't have data for 2023 but it was not much more than in 2022 when exactly 314 ships sailed this route of which only 36 were non Russian ships in other words on the commercial map of the world the Northern sea rout still does not exist despite all the arguments mentioned above for the past 5 years the cargo tonage of shipments for the Arctic route has essentially stagnated quote in 2022 there was not a single fully International Transit through the Northern sea route that is a Transit Voyage from one non-russian port to other non-russian Port the largest number of transits 35 took place between Russian ports says the report of the center for high Logistics why then if so many factors favored the Arctic Cru does virtually no one use it except occasionally the Russians themselves the question itself conceals part of the answer since the Russians control most of the Northern sea routs Coastline it is to them that one must pay tolls to use the road and obtain Transit permits given the current relationship between the west and Moscow this is problematic to say the least but after all the merchant Fleet is owned not only by the west but also by the friendly Chinese who do not want to sail there either besides if you look at the graph of Transport on the Northern sea rout there has been no collapse since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in fact the problem of the Northern sea rout is more complex than just the politics of the great Powers alun Halverson director of the Norwegian ship owners association's emergency department talks about this in an interview with foreign policy Halverson seems to be one of the best people to answer this puzzle as Norway has the world's fifth largest Merchant Fleet and the largest Mutual War Risk insurance pool Halverson points out several important aspects that are often forgotten when it comes to the northern route the easiest and safest Waters to navigate in the Arctic are the coastal Waters but they are also very shallow this means that ship owners would have to reduce tonage and use smaller ships or Sail further from the coast but the weather is much worse there what's more the lifeboats base and other equipment needed to maintain commercial traffic on the route is still virtually non-existent if a container ship the size of the ever given were to become stranded in the Arctic shes in a manner similar to the 2021 sus Canal incident it might never be recovered the chances of survival for the crew of a ship in distress in the icy Arctic Ocean would also seem slim especially given the immensity of the terrain we are talking about and Russia's non-existent Patrol and rescue capabilities in addition navigation experts say that the ice may be melting faster and the body of water without permanent ice is growing however this does not mean that sailing conditions are becoming easier sailing conditions in the Arctic have become more challenging in recent years not less the ships themselves would have to be stronger than the standard ones to withstand a collision with an ice flow of massive proportions on top of that the sun sets over the Arctic in August and the entire Voyage is shrouded in total darkness 24 hours a day quote due to the distances the weather the darkness and the floating ice the predictability of moving along this route is so low that it is not worth the reduced number of days compared to either Su or Africa so what are the chances of the northern route gaining traction short answer viability close to zero it is not a realistic alternative in the foreseeable future says Halon the development of economic relations is not helped by the fact that the atmosphere around the Arctic is becoming more tense the aforementioned Arctic Council which consists of eight countries with territory in the Arctic Circle and coordinates issues related to the region suspended its activities with the Russian invasion of Ukraine after 2 years Russia was allowed to participate in talks to discuss a simulated oil spill in the Arctic but cooperation remains limited the Arctic security architecture is an outgrowth of the Global Security situation south of the high north of great importance of course is the war in Ukraine from moscow's point of view the last two years have brought a deterioration of its own position within the council as well as in the Arctic itself even before that the majority five of the eight members of the Arctic Council belong to the North Atlantic Alliance after the Russian aggression however all members of the Arctic Council except Russia are now in NATO the accession of Sweden and Finland countries with high military potential whose armies are able to operate effectively in the difficult polar area weakens Russia's position in this theater of operations especially in the European part of the Arctic Circle NATO confirms its Arctic Readiness with military exercises in March this year the alliance held large-scale Maneuvers called Nordic response 2024 on the territory of Arctic council members Norway Sweden and Finland the exercise involved 20,000 troops from 13 countries including up to 4,000 Finnish soldiers who are participating in a NATO event for the first time the Russians are trying to respond with their own exercises and demonstrations of their own combat capabilities but it is an Open Secret that the Kremlin is being forced to pull equipment from all parts of the Russian Federation to send to Ukraine the Russian border hasn't been this vulnerable in decades and the Arctic is just one of many theat s where we can see this as we read in The Economist Russia's strategic problem is even recognized by the Chinese themselves in Russian studies a Chinese academic Journal two Chinese Scholars Yu Pang and ju Jen Sheng wrote quote the original balance of the Arctic has been disrupted and the scales in the Arctic region are tipping towards the Western countries China's image in the region they said faced a significant risk of Decline and this could have a negative impact on China's future participation in Arctic Affairs the academics suggested the deteriorating political and economic climate between China and Europe also argues against the northern route and let's remember the polar Silk Road is needed first and foremost to facilitate trade between the two opposite coasts of the great supercontinent of Eurasia meanwhile the old continent is beginning to adapt an increasingly protectionist stance towards China mostly citing unfair practices on the Chinese side a prime example of the trade War which may only be developing is the recently announced tariffs on electric cars the cooling economic climate is not conducive to the development and opening of new risky trade routes and it is no coincidence that the polar Silk Road slogan which the Chinese often invoked as recently as 5 years ago is no longer on the agenda promoted by Beijing however bearing the Arctic route prematurely would undoubtedly be a mistake especially for the sake of raw materials the Middle Kingdom's interest in siberia's vast deposits is strong and will not vain anytime soon the Chinese have invested in at least several major energy projects in Northern Russia in the yamal LNG project China National Petroleum Corporation and the Chinese Silk Road fund have a combined 30 % stake and China National offshore oil Corporation and China National oil and gas exploration have a combined 20% stake in the Arctic lng2 project which is under construction in addition to LNG the IC in on the cake is to be the power of Siberia 2 pipeline through which the Russians plan to pump 50 billion cubic M of gas from the Arctic yamal Peninsula to China Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced in May that the two countries are expected to sign the relevant document to finally commission its construction the pipeline would run through Mongolian territory the Arctic unlike the rest of the world's oceans also has one fundamental Advantage for China the absence of Americans the US Navy hardly sails there and it is perhaps the only area of Maritime combat where the Russians thanks to proximity to their own territory have the edge over the Americans there are fears that the Russians or the Chinese on the basis of their own equipment superiority will begin to claim rights over this part of the Arctic Ocean which under international law belongs to No One this concern is echoed by us Admiral darl codu among others quote the Arctic Basin is full of competition Beyond controlling sea Lanes of communications there is $1 trillion worth of minerals in the region the United States cannot sit idle as Russia creates a n-h line of territorial claims over the Arctic like China aims to do in the Pacific said the US Navy Admiral the fact is that the Russians have the world's largest Fleet of ice breakers and the Priceless advantage of proximity to their Coastline the Chinese on the other hand are developing their own Arctic related capabilities and Technologies despite the lack of commercial traffic through the Northern sea Road and friction with Europe as experts from the Arctic Institute write the Chinese are taking a long-term approach quote main efforts are at the moment concentrated in research and development of Technologies necessary for Polar shipping and Mining such as ice enhanced LNG ships ice breakers and polar deep sea exploration vessels this also includes tracking and navigation technology high power polar ship propellers polar amphib ious UNM Vehicles polar floating oil and gas drilling platforms and ships while not all these Technologies may prove to be viable a commitment to R&D backed by policy documents and funding expands the decision-making options and demonstrates the continued pertinence of the Polar Silk Road in the future the experts right but one should also keep in mind the fact that is sometimes forgotten by proponents of the Dragon bear Alliance namely the the Arctic is also a field of direct confrontation between Moscow and Beijing as Russia is perhaps the most Arctic country in the world with arctic territories accounting for up to 20% of its gross domestic product 20% of its exports 20% of its oil production and as much as 80% of its natural gas production it is clear that the Russians treat this area with extreme priority so when they see increasingly ambitious Chinese plans for the far north North they have every reason to fear that they may come at their expense the cautious relationship can be seen for example in the decision not to give the Chinese a privileged position in the use of the Northern sea rout or the six major Russian Arctic ports that is pevc tixie Dixon sabeta arangil and mmis quote Chinese ships have even been refused entry or have abided by Russian Transit laws that force them to pay tolls provide ample notice about the journeys and accept Russian Pilots says the Australian strategic policy Institute report the Russians also care for that foreign entities primarily Chinese do not take a majority stake in any strategic energy projects it seems that the Arctic its resources and the northern route are one of Russia's last significant levers VAV V China and the kremin is trying to use this to somehow defend itself against beijing's dominant position in bilateral relations therefore Moscow is continuing the process of building and reconstituting its own military capabilities in the Arctic and has been doing so for many years although the war with Ukraine is sucking up military equipment and capabilities Russia still has an advantage over nato in the number of bases and ports in the Arctic the war is certainly slowing down the process of investment in the Russian Federation polar military potential but it remains substantial especially given the geographic advantages and neglect of NATO countries thus transportation and Commercial activity in the far north remain essentially dead despite great Russian hopes that the Arctic will provide the autocratic regime in the Kremlin with further Financial turbocharging and legitimacy for the next Decades of oligarchic Mafia rule despite the slow pace of change this does not mean that the current status quo will remain forever the Chinese are developing their own polar research and development sector the Americans are slowly recognizing the importance of the north while the results of the war in Ukraine may have major implications for the Arctic if they lead to a reshuffling of the Russian power structure interest in the northern route could rise quickly note that in addition to the northern route there is the nor West passage around the northern tip of North America and the transpolar route which goes from Alaska to Europe almost directly through the North Pole but their potential is even more difficult to exploit than the northern route so the pace of change is slow but a lot is happening under the melting ice and the parties are still gradually preparing for the growing competition for Arctic resources and trade routs