Lecture Notes on Professor Kishore Mahbubani's Perspective on US-China Economic Relations

Introduction

• Discussion around whether China will surpass the US economically.
• Professor Kishore Mahbubani provides his thoughts on this issue.

Timeframe for Economic Changes

• Suggests the US has 10 years to respond to China's rise.
• Based on the mathematical projection of China's economic growth at 5% annually.
• The larger China's economy grows, the harder it becomes to stop its momentum.

China's Manufacturing Strategy

• China's long-term manufacturing strategy has made its manufacturing sector indispensable globally.
• China has embedded itself deeply into global supply chains.
• Example: Rise of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry.
  • Initially underestimated by global car makers.
  • Now poses a significant challenge to established players like Germany, Japan, Korea, and even the US.
  • The growth of the Chinese EV sector was not accidental but part of a strategic plan.

Implications for the US

• As global dependence on China increases, US options to counter China's rise narrow.
• Urgency in Washington DC to act quickly, advised by figures like Robert Lighthizer and Matt Pottinger.

US Domestic Challenges and Strategy

• Quoted George Kennan: Outcome depends on the strength of domestic society.
• Current US issues:
  • Society is increasingly divided.
  • Described as a plutocracy where policies benefit the top 1-2% rather than the majority.
  • Middle-class decline; the bottom 50% has seen stagnant living standards for decades.
• Suggestion: US should focus on strengthening its domestic society rather than trying to weaken China.

Political Context

• Potential differences in approach between Biden and Trump.
  • Trump may take a more aggressive stance.
  • Both administrations face the challenge of addressing domestic issues to compete effectively.

Conclusion

• The US-China economic contest is set to accelerate over the next decade.
• Professor Mahbubani hints at significant and unpredictable developments in this geopolitical rivalry.

Final Thoughts

• Engagement invitation: Subscribers are encouraged to share their views on the topic.
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