Some people believe China will never catch up to the US economically, while others argue that China might even surpass it within the next decade. So, what does Professor Kishore Mahbubani think about all this? Let's dive into his perspective.
Professor, you have mentioned before, and even we were having a discussion earlier today, that the US has 10 years. to counter the rise of China? Why specifically 10 years? Well, I think it's all a matter of mathematics. And if the Chinese economy keeps growing, right, at 5% a year over 10 years, and you know, I don't have the maths off the top of my head, even if it doesn't overtake, it comes very, very close.
And the bigger China gets, the harder it is to stop it. And it's quite clear that the Chinese have been quite ingenious in creating a long-term manufacturing strategy for China. And that manufacturing capability of China is now indispensable to the rest of the world. I mean, all of you, if you open your kitchen cupboards or whatever it is, take out the products.
See how many of the components in any of the products came from China. Just check. You'd be amazed.
This is not by accident. China wants to create deep dependence on China's manufacturing sector. And you know, incidentally, even five, ten years ago, five years ago, if you had asked...
anybody. Could China ever join the competition for cars? People say, no way. The Germans are so far ahead.
Japanese are so far ahead. Koreans are far ahead. Even the Americans are far ahead.
But you know what? Today, The Chinese have started from scratch, created an electric vehicle EV industry that is now frightening the pants of all car makers all over the world. Because the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem on EVs is so amazing. Even Elon Musk at first dismissed it.
Now he wouldn't dare to dismiss it. But did this EV? challenge from China emerged by accident? No! It is part of the long-term strategy, right?
And five years from now, all over the world you'll see Chinese EVs. So as the world transforms and becomes more dependent on China, it narrows the options for the United States. I mean, quite naturally. Which is why there is in Washington DC a very strong sense of urgency.
And by the way, you know, if you look at what some of the people who, some of the Americans, I could give you names, Robert Lighthizer, Matt Pottinger, they'll be coming back to advise Trump. They are the ones who are saying, hurry up, hurry up, we've got to act fast. So the sense of urgency in Washington DC is very real. And so this leads me to the next question, like what are the measures that the U.S. could take in order to counter the rise of China?
And is this like measures going to differ from Biden to Trump? Well, I think the best answer to your question, what should the United States do? It was given by George Kennan in the remark I quoted earlier in 1949, where he said at the end of the day, the outcome of the contest will depend on which country's domestic society is stronger. And here, the challenge for the United States today, sadly, is that it has become a deeply divided society, right? And in my book, as you know, Has China Won?
in Chapter 7, I provide lots of empirical data, but taken from American scholars, by the way. You know, people like Paul Volcker, former head of the Fed, Joe Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate, or Martin Wolf of Financial Times, they're all given data to show how United States has essentially become a plutocracy. What is a plutocracy? A plutocracy is a society where public policy decisions are made not to benefit the majority at the bottom but the top one percent two percent that's what and by the way Whatever I'm saying is not original for me. American scholars have said all this.
I'm just repeating what American scholars are saying. And the reason why it looks as though Trump is going to get elected is that the bottom 50% in America, the data shows this, haven't seen an improvement in their standard of living for 30, 40 years. In fact, the American middle class has diminished, you know, significantly. So, therefore, if the United States wants to win the contest against China, it should rebuild the strength of its domestic society.
That should be its priority. Because at the end of the day... You know, like in any athletic contest, right? You're better off trying to win by running faster rather than trying to kneecap your opponent. And that should be the best thing that United says you can do.
But changing United States society and taking care of plutocracy is going to be a major challenge. And that has to be the answer of the United States. Donald Trump has bought the main thesis.
that the United States cannot allow China to become number one. So he might possibly make a deal, but I think the Chinese are not counting on it. The Chinese have to get ready for a more aggressive president. But again, having said that, the only thing you must know about Donald Trump is that he can do anything. Because when Donald Trump Donald Trump wakes up, actually he cannot predict what he's going to do in the rest of the day.
He may change his mind over the course of the day. Thank you, Professor. And before we conclude, Professor, please, you have one minute only. If you have any final thoughts or insights.
Only one minute. In one minute, I can promise you that you will not be bored in the next 10 years. The US-China contest will accelerate. And get ready, you'll watch the greatest show in human history.
Good to know that. Thank you. Do you agree with Professor Kishore Mahbubani's point about China overtaking the US to become the world's largest economy? Well, tell us what you think by leaving your comments below.
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