Lecture Notes: The Future of Shohei Ohtani as a Pitcher

Introduction

• Topic: The discussion focused on Shohei Ohtani's future as a pitcher.
• Key Point: Recovering from two major UCL surgeries is challenging, and Ohtani may face a third surgery.
• Consideration: Ohtani's body might not sustain the demands of being a two-way player.

Early Career and Injuries

• 2018 Rookie Year

  • Batting: .285 average, 22 home runs, 61 RBIs, 151 OPS+ in 104 games.
  • Pitching: 10 starts before a UCL tear.
  • Treatment attempted with platelet-rich plasma and stem cell injections.
  • Achieved Rookie of the Year and underwent Tommy John surgery.

• 2019 and 2020 Seasons

  • 2019: Continued as DH with a .286 batting average.
  • 2020: Shortened season due to the pandemic.
  • Struggled in pitching, with decreased velocity and injuries leading to DH-only role.

Historic 2021 Season

• Achievements: 46 home runs, 100 RBIs, 26 stolen bases, 156 strikeouts, 3.18 ERA.
• First player to start as both pitcher and leadoff hitter in All-Star Game.
• Notable games against Astros and Tigers, showcasing pitching and hitting prowess.
• Named unanimous MVP.

Performance in 2022

• First player to qualify as both pitcher and hitter in a single season.
• Stats: 219 strikeouts, 2.33 ERA, 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings, 34 home runs.
• Unprecedented achievement of 10+ wins and 30+ homers in one year.
• Impressive stretch from June to July: 6-0 record, 0.45 ERA.

2023 Achievements and Challenges

• Led Team Japan to a World Baseball Classic victory.
• Regular season: 44 home runs, .412 on-base percentage, second unanimous MVP.
• Pitching: 3.14 ERA in 23 starts, 9.9 WAR.
• Faced another UCL tear, casting doubt on pitching future.

Realities of a Second Tommy John Surgery

• Second surgeries rarely result in a return to peak form.
• Notable exceptions like Nathan Eovaldi exist but are rare.
• Examples of unsuccessful comebacks: José Rijo, Steve Ontiveros, Josh Johnson, Kris Medlen.

Transition and Future Prospects

• Offseason: Signed a significant contract with the Dodgers.
• 2024 Achievements: Third unanimous MVP, 50/50 club member (54 homers, 59 stolen bases).
• September performance: 12-game hitting streak with outstanding stats.
• Dodgers won the NL West and World Series.

Consideration for Future Role

• Contemplation of transitioning to a full-time outfielder or late-inning reliever.
• Challenges of sustaining two-way status vs. focusing on hitting achievements.
• Shohei's understanding of potential third surgery consequences.

Conclusion

• Shohei Ohtani's determination suggests the “Sho” will continue, irrespective of the challenges.
• Possibility of miraculous comeback or transition to a full-time hitting role.
• Final thoughts: Ohtani remains focused and realistic about his future.

Thank you for attending today’s lecture. See you in the next session!