The end of Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher feels
inevitable. Recovering from two major UCL surgeries is nearly impossible to come back from
at full strength. He knows it, too. Before even making his second return to the mound in 2025,
he’s already preparing for a third operation down the road. Unfortunately, Ohtani's body may not
be able to handle the demands of a two-way career much longer. Even with his unparalleled skills,
the wear and tear on his arm might force him to walk away from pitching altogether. There’s no
guarantee he can regain form after another Tommy John surgery, but if anyone has the drive to defy
the odds, it’s Ohtani. As always, if you enjoy, please leave a like and consider subscribing.
As a rookie in 2018, Shohei took the league by storm, batting .285 with 22 home runs,
61 RBIs, and a 151 OPS+ in 104 games as a designated hitter. On the mound, he made just 10
starts before suffering a UCL tear and initially attempted to delay surgery with platelet-rich
plasma and stem cell injections. In September, doctors recommended reconstruction, but cleared
him to keep hitting. The reason he was able to is because swinging a bat doesn’t put the same
extreme stress on the elbow as pitching does. Remarkably, a few hours after the news broke,
Ohtani went out and homered twice, stole a base, and notched four hits, leading the Angels to a 9-3
victory. By season’s end, he was named Rookie of the Year and underwent Tommy John surgery,
a procedure with a 12-to-18-month recovery window that demands an exhaustive rehabilitation
regimen. Fortunately, the operation has about a 90% success rate, meaning most players return at
their previous level. Ohtani continued to DH in 2019, batting .286 in 106 games, slightly
below his rookie totals but still strong. Heading into 2020, he was gearing
up for his return to the mound, but the pandemic delayed the season and shortened
it to just 60 games. When he finally did pitch, it was disastrous – his diminished velocity was
evident as he failed to record an out in his first start, allowing three hits, three walks,
and five earned runs. In his second outing, he lasted just 1.2 innings before being shut
down again. Imaging revealed a strain of the flexor pronator mass, which helps control
velocity and stabilize the elbow. A strain or tear in this area significantly increases the
risk of another UCL injury. The Angels weren’t willing to push it, and he was once again
relegated to a DH-only role. At the plate, he struggled, batting just .190 in 44 games.
Then came 2021, when Shohei Ohtani delivered a season unlike anything baseball had ever seen.
– 46 home runs, 100 RBIs, 26 stolen bases, a 3.18 ERA, 156 strikeouts, and a unanimous MVP. After
two full seasons, his arm had finally recovered, and the result was historic. Ohtani’s ability to
throw 100 mph fastballs and generate 115 mph exit velocities – captured the baseball world’s
attention. On May 11th against the Astros, he pitched seven innings of one-run ball and then
played right field, becoming just the third player in the modern era to strike out 10 batters
and then play another position in the field. At the All-Star Game, he was the starting pitcher
and leadoff hitter in the American League’s 5-2 victory. On August 18th, he pitched eight innings
and allowed one run against the Tigers while also hitting a home run – becoming the first AL pitcher
in the DH era to do both in the same game. He finished the season with a standout 7-inning,
10-strikeout performance against the Mariners. In 2022, he became the first player to qualify
as both a pitcher and hitter in a single season, racking up 219 strikeouts, a 2.33 ERA and 11.9
strikeouts per 9 innings while slugging 34 home runs. No one had ever recorded 10+ wins and 30+
homers in the same year – until Ohtani. Over a six-game stretch from June 9th to July 13th,
he went 6-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 58 strikeouts, while also hitting eight home runs with a .997
OPS. On May 5th, he induced 29 swings and misses against Boston, a feat no other pitcher matched
that season. Then, on September 29th, he carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning against Oakland,
allowing just two hits, one walk, and striking out 10 – all while picking up two hits and an RBI.
Fun fact: I was there! Hands down, the greatest individual performance I’ve ever witnessed.
On the hitting side, Ohtani drove in eight runs in a game against the Royals. He
also led the majors in home-to-first time, averaging 4.09 seconds. Selected as an All-Star
both as a pitcher and position player for the second straight year, Shohei capped off the
season with a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting and was the runner-up in MVP voting.
In 2023, he led Team Japan to win a memorable World Baseball Classic, where he struck out his
then-teammate Mike Trout to clinch the title. In the regular season, Ohtani launched an AL-best 44
home runs in just 135 games, with a career-high .412 on-base percentage – securing his second
unanimous MVP in three years. On the mound, he wasn’t quite as dominant but still registered
a 3.14 ERA and held opponents to a .184 batting average in 23 starts. He was once again an
All-Star as a pitcher and a position player, finishing the season with an MLB-best 9.9 WAR.
Shohei reached the 40 homer threshold for the second time and ranked among the top A.L. players
in multiple offensive categories, including total bases (325), extra-base hits (78), and slugging
percentage (.654). Ohtani twirled his first career complete game and shutout in July, part of a
stretch spanning 20.2 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. Then came the crushing
news – another UCL tear in August, all but guaranteeing another lengthy recovery timetable.
It’s well known that pitchers undergoing a second Tommy John surgery rarely return to peak form.
The data is bleak – most lose velocity, command, and durability. Some never recover at all. One of
the few exceptions is Nathan Eovaldi. After his second Tommy John surgery, he became a dependable
MLB starter and one of the game’s better postseason pitchers. Before his 2nd surgery from
2011-2016, he had a 4.21 ERA and 6.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. From 2020-2024, he posted a 3.75
ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per 9 innings. In 2016, his fastball averaged 97.8 miles per hour, but by
2018 (first year post-op), it had dipped slightly to 97.2. In 2024, it sat at 95.4 miles per
hour. While his recovery is extraordinary, his case is an outlier, not the norm. Some of the
most notable examples of unsuccessful comebacks include José Rijo, Steve Ontiveros, Josh Johnson,
and Kris Medlen. Jose Rijo missed five full seasons after his second procedure and ultimately
made just 44 appearances (including 9 starts), with a 4.60 ERA. In his prime, from 1988-1994, he
compiled a 2.63 ERA, receiving a top five Cy Young finish twice. Steve Ontiveros, who won an ERA
title in 1994, missed nearly five seasons, and made only three appearances in his return,
with underwhelming results. Josh Johnson won an ERA title in 2010 and was one of the game’s best
pitchers before facing his 2nd Tommy John surgery, and at age 30, never pitched again in the majors.
Kris Medlen in 2012 was electric in 50 games (12 starts), boasting a 10-1 record and a 1.57 ERA. He
followed up with a complete season as a starter, posting a 3.11 ERA in nearly 200 innings of work.
Unfortunately, he went under the knife in 2014, and upon returning a year later, never found
the same success, pitching to the tune of a 5.61 ERA in 22 games before fading out of baseball
entirely after his age 32 season in 2018. But if there’s anything we know about
Shohei Ohtani, his talent and abilities are far from the ordinary. In the offseason
he underwent his second Tommy John surgery, he signed with the Dodgers on a mind-boggling
10 year, $700 million contract, which was the most lucrative for any professional athlete at the
time. In 2024, he took his game to the next level at the plate. His Baseball Savant page looks like
something out of a video game. He secured his 3rd unanimous MVP Award while rehabbing from elbow
surgery – an almost unimaginable feat. Ohtani shattered expectations in his first year with
the Dodgers, becoming the founding member of the 50/50 club with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases.
He led the NL in multiple offensive categories, including WAR, runs, homers, RBIs, on-base
percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. His September surge featured a blistering stretch,
including a 12-game hitting streak where he went 29-for-53 (.547) with seven homers, 22 RBIs, and
11 stolen bases, all while maintaining exceptional plate discipline. The climax was undoubtedly
his game against the Marlins on September 19th, when he put together what can only be described as
arguably the greatest single-game performance in the game’s history. Ohtani not only reached the
50/50 club but went a perfect 6-for-6, blasting three homers, driving in 10 runs, and stealing
2 bases. His efforts propelled the Dodgers to an NL West title. In his first postseason, L.A.
went all the way, beating the Yankees in the World Series to net Ohtani his first ring.
For Shohei, the threat of a third Tommy John surgery is real. While a second
is a death sentence for most pitchers, a third is almost unheard of. If he can no
longer pitch, what then? Would the Dodgers consider making him a full-time outfielder? Or,
if he’s determined to pitch in some capacity, could transitioning to a late-inning reliever,
perhaps even closer, be the solution – where he might not need to sustain the same level of
endurance over longer outings? Given that Ohtani has shown a higher ceiling as a hitter thus far
(his 50/50 season in 2024 stands as evidence), it might make more sense to leave pitching behind and
allow him to chase milestones that could slip away if he continues clinging to two-way status. By no
means am I rooting against him. If he makes a full recovery and proves me wrong, I’ll gladly accept
that fate! But if not, there should be a backup plan in place in case things go awry. Ohtani
himself understands the gravity of the situation, acknowledging the reality of a third surgery with
the same level of calm and focus that has always defined his approach. He’s not in denial. He knows
what’s coming. Whether it’s a miraculous comeback or a full-time move to hitting, Ohtani’s
not backing down. Whatever the challenge, the “Sho” will go on. Thank you all for watching,
and I’ll see you guys in the net video. Later.