Notes from the Panel Discussion on Secure Waters, AAN, and the Indo-Pacific

Introduction

• Panel moderated by Lisa Singh, CEO of the Australia India Institute.
• Panelists:
  • His Excellency Enrique Manalo, Secretary of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines
  • His Excellency Maris Sangam Ponga, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand
  • Mr. Brent Sadler, Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, US
  • Mr. Hiroyuki Akita, Foreign Affairs Commentator, Nikkei Japan
  • Dr. G Yong Jong, Assistant Professor, Republic of Korea Naval Academy

Context of Discussion

• The Indo-Pacific region faces critical crossroads concerning regional security, multilateralism, and alliances.
• Geopolitical rivalry, particularly between the US and China, shapes the region's future.
• Organizations like AAN and the Quad must adapt to shifting global dynamics and act as platforms for cooperation.

Key Topics Discussed

Role of AAN and the Quad

• Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Secretary Manalo emphasized AAN's potential for success in fostering cooperation amid challenges posed by China's assertiveness.
  • Minister Sangam Ponga highlighted AAN's historical resilience and role in maintaining regional stability.
• Strategic Cooperation:
  • AAN's centrality and partnerships with various countries are crucial for addressing regional issues, including China's maritime claims.
  • Cooperation among AAN members is vital for maintaining a balance of power in the region.

Perspectives on China's Influence

• China's Assertiveness:
  • Panelists discussed China's claims in the South China Sea and its implications for smaller nations.
  • The panel stressed the importance of a rules-based order to protect the rights of middle and smaller powers in the region.
• Geopolitical Dynamics:
  • The rise of US isolationism and its implications for allies like Japan and South Korea were discussed.
  • Japan's reliance on US commitments while navigating its own security challenges was a major concern.

Future of US Foreign Policy

• Bipartisan Commitment:
  • Brent Sadler noted that US foreign policy is driven by national interests, particularly regarding military presence and partnership with allies.
  • Concerns about the unpredictability of Trump's administration were raised, with implications for regional security.
• US Engagement:
  • The US's role in providing security assurances to allies is critical, especially as the Quad evolves.

Regional Security and Cooperation

• ASEAN's Role:
  • ASEAN serves as a bridge-builder and forum for dialogue among regional and global powers.
  • Its institutional mechanisms allow for discussions on various concerns, including security and economic challenges.
• Cooperative Frameworks:
  • Panelists emphasized the importance of cooperation through bilateral, minilateral, and multilateral approaches to address regional challenges effectively.

Audience Engagement

• Questions from the audience focused on the Quad's institutionalization, the military-industrial complex in the Indo-Pacific, and tensions between China and Taiwan.
• Secretary Manalo reiterated the need for a peaceful resolution regarding Taiwan, emphasizing open communication to avoid escalation.
• The potential for competition and coordination in military partnerships in the region was discussed, especially in light of Europe's involvement.

Conclusion

• The discussion concluded with an acknowledgment of the complexities and challenges facing ASEAN and the Quad in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific.