South China Sea Dispute Lecture Notes

Overview

• The South China Sea is one of the most disputed regions globally.
• Multiple countries compete for control of its territorial waters.
• Potential for regional war or conflict involving global powers like China and the US.

Importance of the South China Sea

• Major world shipping thoroughfare:
  • Over 20% of global trade passes through.
  • Approximately $3.3 trillion in trade annually.
• Rich in natural resources:
  • Estimated 11 billion barrels of oil.
  • 90 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
  • 10% of the globe's fisheries.

Key Disputed Areas

• Paracel and Spratly Islands:
  • Surrounded by potential reserves of natural resources.
  • US Geological Survey: Spratly Islands contain 0.9 to 3 billion barrels of petroleum.

Territorial Claims

• China's Claim:
  • Claims 90% of South China Sea territories.
  • Based on a 1947 map by pre-communist China.
  • The map initially had 11 dashes but now has 9.
• Other Claimants:
  • Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei.
  • Competing claims of sovereignty.
• International Rulings:
  • 2016: Philippines won case against China in Permanent Court of Arbitration.
  • Ruling: Beijing's claims have no legal basis under international law.

Historical and Recent Confrontations

• 1974 Incident:
  • 74 Vietnamese sailors killed when China seized the Paracels.
• Recent Incidents:
  • August 8: Chinese and Filipino air forces clash.
  • June: Confrontation between Chinese and Filipino vessels.
  • Philippines accused Chinese coast guards of piracy.

US Involvement

• Defense Treaties:
  • Mutual defense treaty with the Philippines since World War II.
  • US announced a $500 million defense fund for the Philippines in 2023.
• Military Presence:
  • Joint sea and air drills with the Philippines, US, Australia, and Canada.
  • US access to 4 new military bases in the Philippines.
  • Existing military presence in Taiwan and military ties with Brunei.

China's Actions

• Military Outposts:
  • 20 outposts in Paracel Islands.
  • 7 outposts in Spratly Islands.
  • Vows to protect territorial interests by any means.

United Nations Stance

• United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982):
  • States can control territorial waters within 370 km (exclusive economic zones).
  • Right of innocent passage for civilian or military ships through other states' territorial seas.

Conclusion

• Tensions could escalate into a wider geopolitical conflict.
• Competition between Washington and Beijing could center around the South China Sea.