This is the South China Sea, one of the most disputed regions in the world, as multiple countries have been competing for control of its territorial waters for centuries. In a gloomy scenario, it might only take one miscalculated attack or a single clash for a regional war to erupt. In a worst-case scenario, the tensions could even lead to a major conflict involving global powers like China and the US.
The sea is more than just water, reefs, islands and rocks. It serves as a major world shipping thoroughfare, with more than 20% of global trade passing through its waters, amounting to approximately $3.3 trillion in trade annually. It is also believed to hold around 11 billion barrels of oil, 90 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and around 10% of the globe's fisheries.
At the heart of the dispute are the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which are believed to be surrounded by potential reserves of natural resources. A US geological survey estimates that the Spratly Island territory contains between 0.9 to 3 billion barrels of petroleum and other liquids. China has claimed around 90% of the territories in the South China Sea, antagonizing bordering countries Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Brunei.
who have made their own competing claims of sovereignty. Beijing's claims are based on a map drawn by pre-communist China in 1947. The map initially had 11 dashes indicating Chinese territory. But once the Chinese Communist Party adopted the map in 1949, two dashes were removed to give the Gulf of Tonkin to communist Vietnam.
China insists that history supports its claims. In 2016, however, a case against China brought by the Philippines to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that Beijing's claims have no legal basis under international law. national law. The territorial disputes have led to several confrontations dating back to the 1970s. At least 74 Vietnamese sailors were killed in a deadly incident in 1974 when China ceased the paracels.
More recently, the Philippines and China have been engaged in a series of confrontations in the last year. The latest incident occurred on August 8 when Chinese and Filipino air forces accused each other of disrupting each other's military operations in the South China Sea, leading the Philippine government to lodge a a diplomatic protest against Beijing. This recent incident followed a violent confrontation that took place between Chinese and Filipino vessels in the South China Sea in June.
The Philippines had accused the Chinese coast guards involved of piracy, whilst China defended their maritime forces, calling them professional and restrained. As with most flare-ups in the South China Sea between China and Washington's allies, the incident renewed fears that the US could be dragged into a direct confrontation with China. So what brings the United States into this?
Manila and Washington have a mutual defense treaty dating back to World War II, which means the U.S. could at any point invoke the treaty to defend the Philippines militarily. In July this year, the U.S. announced a $500 million million defense fund for the Philippines. Then on August 7, the Philippines, the U.S., Australia and Canada launched joint sea and air drills in the South China Sea, where Beijing was also holding its own military exercises.
In addition to previously established regional military facilities in the Philippines, South Vietnam and Taiwan, the U.S. gained access to four new military bases in the Philippines, including one located by the South China Sea in 2023. The U.S. also has military presence in Taiwan and shares military ties with Brunei. On its end, China, which has vowed to protect its territorial interests by any means necessary, has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratlys, according to the Washington-based. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
What does the United Nations say about all of this? A 1982 UN law called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea says states can control the territorial waters within 370 kilometers of their shores, called exclusive economic zones. and that all civilian or military ships can enjoy the right of innocent passage through other states'territorial seas.
Will tensions boiling between border countries and a fierce competition between Washington and Beijing lead to a wider geopolitical conflict centered around the South China Sea?