The session provided a comprehensive overview of the "fourth turning" thesis and its implications for macroeconomic cycles, specifically focusing on cryptocurrency investment strategy in 2024–2025.
Key drivers discussed include secular business cycles, monetary policy, liquidity (M2), and election year seasonality, all of which are creating bullish conditions for technology and crypto assets.
The presenter emphasized the importance of tracking leading indicators, particularly ISM and M2, over lagging indicators used by central banks to gain a market edge.
The call concluded by reiterating a strong conviction in crypto and disruptive technology as the top-performing asset classes for the upcoming cycle, advising active allocation and strategy planning for the next bull run.
Action Items
No specific tasks or deliverables were assigned to participants in the transcript.
Fourth Turning Thesis and Macro Perspective
The "fourth turning" is explained as a repeating 80–100 year cycle of societal and economic transformation, with the current era marked by the collapse of the old system and the birth of a new one.
The current period is viewed as a rare, high-opportunity phase for generational wealth creation, primarily driven by innovation and disruptive technology.
The investment thesis is centered on three asset classes: disruptive technology (AI, EVs, semiconductors, cybersecurity), cryptocurrencies (layer 1s, privacy coins, DeFi, Bitcoin), and metals (gold and silver).
The presenter stresses that their entire investment philosophy is based on expectations of outsized returns in these sectors as the system transitions into a new "first turning."
Economic and Business Cycle Analysis
A detailed walkthrough of the business cycle explains periods of expansion and contraction, the role of the Federal Reserve in controlling money supply (M2), and the impact on asset prices.
Post-2020, massive monetary expansion led to subsequent tightening, recessionary conditions, and now early signs of a new expansionary phase as of 2024.
The presenter cautioned against relying on lagging indicators (like unemployment or CPI) favored by the Fed, which are slower to reflect macroeconomic changes.
Leading indicators, especially ISM (below 50 signals contraction; above 50, expansion), are highlighted as key forecasting tools for investment decisions, supporting a bullish stance for 2024–2026.
Liquidity and Investment Strategy
Liquidity (M2) is identified as the dominant driver of asset price movements across all markets, with an almost 90–95% correlation between M2 and major indices like the NASDAQ.
Investing during M2 expansions historically yields high returns, with growth assets (crypto and technology) outperforming more traditional or "safe" investments.
The risk is reframed: the biggest risk is under-allocating to high-performing sectors during expansion phases, not short-term volatility.
2024–2025 Crypto and Market Thesis
Multiple macro factors make 2024–2025 highly bullish: election year trends, anticipated Fed rate cuts, end of quantitative tightening, resumption of money printing, and positive sentiment cycles.
Institutional inflows into crypto (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs) and anticipated policy changes further strengthen the thesis.
Historic and projected Bitcoin cycles (especially halving events combined with M2 expansion) have repeatedly led to exponential growth periods, expected again in the coming cycle.
Decisions
Maintain primary allocation to technology and crypto assets — Rationale: Outperformance expected based on macro cycle, liquidity, and historical correlations; opportunity cost of under-allocating is significant.