what's going on everyone in this module I'm going to be walking you guys through our most macro fourth turning thesis as it pertains to cryptocurrency the future of digital money you should all be familiar with the fourth turning thesis by now and and this is a notion I often talk about publicly as well as privately in the Lu but just in case for some reason you've been living under a rock the fourth turning references this secular and generational cycle that we've seen play out over the last 500 to A Thousand Years of human history and this cycle basically consists of four periods called turn ings that usually last anywhere from 20 to 30 years and long story short each 20 to 30 year cycle has its own inherent characteristics its own pros and its own cons and in a fourth turning that is essentially the last 20 to 30 years of an existing system that has been around for anywhere from 80 to 100 years usually at that time and that is where we're currently finding ourselves and the way that the fourth turning ties into everything going on in the world cryptocurrency Technology Innovation AI EVS all of the things that we're about and we're going to talk about today all of this is derived from the understanding that we are going through a secular shift a once per 100e shift and opportunity that most people aren't seeing is right in front of them and so what we're going to walk you through today is how we've come up with our investing thesis and specifically how that relates to you and your cryptocurrency investing so there are a variety of different asset classes that we invest in but what we're going to be specifically focusing on mainly in today's video is our macro thesis for why we are so bullish on cryptocurrency and why it is a Cornerstone of our teachings so if you look at the Luc basket of Investments we have you know technology Innovation stocks we have ai we have semiconductors we have EVS we have things like cyber security and we also have things like cryptocurrency and privacy coins and layer ones and Bitcoin which is really a store value and metals right so we are very vocal about investing in a select few asset classes our entire Lu investment thesis can be summarized in two words fourth turning we are unbelievably confident that over a five a 10 and a 20-year time Horizon nothing will come close to the Returns on the select asset classes that our investment teachings are centered around as the existing system collapses and a new one is birthed via Innovation and this is what means to live through a fourth turning and enter into what is called a first turning it is the collapse of a century old system and the birth of a new system that will likely last anywhere from 80 to 120 years and we have seen this for hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of years but most people do not study history if you found yourself in this group you've already won my goal with this training today is simply to show you why and how you've already won our key macro asset classes are three-fold we've got technology and disruptive innovation that's going to look like AI EVS semiconductors cyber security like I mentioned then we've got cryptocurrencies and within cryptocurrencies there are all sorts of different asset classes we have things like decentralized Finance we have have this concept of owning sound money layer ones layer twos privacy coins gaming coins and on and on and then we've got medals right mainly silver and gold in today's Master Class I'm going to do my best to cover all of the foundations you need to know surrounding how our investment thesis capitalizes on the greatest wealth transfer and financial opportunity of the last 100 years and more specifically how you should be thinking about your investments in 2024 and 2025 so that you can capture the most upside as we head into a 2030 world of digitization and artificial intelligence so grab a pen grab a paper get yourself a drink because this one is going to be dense so the first thing I want to talk to you guys about is the business cycle at the time we're filming this we've just entered into 2024 and we are at the very early stages of our next secular bull market but what does that really mean and what dictates this first things first I want to clarify secular refers to long-term cyclical refers to Shorter term so when I say A secular B bull market I'm referencing a multiple-year longer term bull market that is typically dictated by the business cycle what is the business cycle well you can see it on screen but I'm going to talk to you about it give you the basics so that you understand the first principles before we move on to more advanced things so the cycles of really all markets come down to the business cycle which is a fancy way of categorizing when the FED expands the money supply and when the FED contracts the money supply if you look at this graph on the right you see that we kind of have a series of S curves that Trend up and to the right over time right they grow as GDP grows so we have time on the horizontal axis and we have GDP on the vertical axis so over time we go through these very exponential expansion periods and then they kind of level off and we start to go down into contraction periods that are often referred to as recessions or once in a while depressions but what goes up must come down right it's the law of Rhythm this is just a law of the universe so things then swing back up and that recession creates so much necessary cleansing it's like a spiritual cleaning and a lot of innovation is birthed during recessions and so we inevitably tough it out through the pain right this is usually High interest rate this is usually businesses are going under this is usually new businesses are really struggling to get off the ground lending rates are brutal the consumer struggling you know the econom is not growing etc etc and then we swing back up into another expansionary phase and this is just the nature of the economic cycle and over time this S curve if you averaged it out essentially makes a straight line that you can see represented by this dotted line so the business cycle is just fancy way of referring to that the entire economy is driven by es and flows of liquidity so what actually causes this up and down Behavior that's what I want to talk about so after the 2020 crisis our money supply which I've talked about before this is often referred to as M2 the US's entire money supply in circulation expanded way too quickly and to way too high of a level and because of this the FED decided to stop printing they decided to raise interest rates they decided to create unemployment and they decided to constrict the fed's purchasing of government treasuries which is something that they do during quantitative easing periods they don't just print money they also use that to buy government treasuries bonds Etc which props up the market they send billions and billions and billions a month into the markets which artificially inflate asset prices this is why the rich get richer it is one piece of it at least and during quantitative tightening QT when the pendulum swings to the opposite side of the business cycle they sell off those treasuries they reduce their balance sheet and they try to pay back their debts all while raising interest rates this really slows down the economy and as far as the FED at least explains it this is part of how they kind of keep the natural order of things in the economy so they tightened money supply and they artificially tanked the economy and the consumer in 2020 right well after 2020 starting in about 2021 heading into 2022 and 2023 so we're coming out of two plus years of a contraction period and it's time for a seasonal change into the expansion period so if you look at the graph below here's what that will likely look like you kind of see that in 2020 we started going up up up up right and we peaked in about 2022 this was our this is the fed's balance sheet if you look at the white line we peaked in 2022 and then things got way too out of hand right the economy kind of started spiraling we entered into a recession everything sold off and we kind of entered a you know this was right around when we started our two plus year contractionary period you could refer to as a recession so the fed's been reducing its balance sheet reducing its balance sheet reducing its balance sheet but the thing is is all of this is a giant Ponzi and now that inflation is trending back down the FED reduced its balance sheet a bit things seem to be under control and they got what they wanted right they cooled off the economy they had a two plus year contraction phase where the money supply contracted interest rates went up businesses went under Banks went under the consumer's wealth was reduced jobs have been lost and then we kind of swing back into the other side of the pendulum so we're starting to see based on the federal government's current expenditures involving their interest payments if you look at that blue line in the direction that it's going to track the only way they're going to be able to pay their interest payments over time because remember this is a giant Ponzi is to print more money because we are now in the tail end of a 100y year-ish forth turning and the government and the Federal Reserve are so unfathomably in debt that they couldn't possibly service that debt like a real business via profit so what do they do they only have one trick left they print more money and they use that artificial expansion of the M2 money supply to pay back the debt kind of funny right it is the literal economic version of kicking the can down the road and even though I don't agree with it even though you likely don't appreciate it either what we're all about here in the Lu is learning the game so we can play the game well right well here's the game and I want to clarify before we move on that this kind of pivot that you see at the bottom of 2023 and then heading back into 2024 would have actually happened even sooner if the FED wasn't relying on Stone Age metrics and indicators to determine whether the economy is in a healthier place or not we've been waiting and waiting and waiting quarter after quarter for Jerome po to come on and announce that the Federal Reserve is pivoting and they're going to pause hiking interest rates and then actually lower hiking interest rates and they have yet to officially announce that though that's likely going to happen in March 2024 but the reason is because they're relying on lagging indicators which I'll talk about in the next slides and this really causes them to move like a real dinosaur so honestly there's a strong case for the fact that they've overtightened and they've really artificially hindered the economy and I think we're beginning to see the implications that are going to come from the fact that they've overtightened and that they should not have raised interest rates this high for this long but only time will tell so I want to talk about ISM which is a key indicator and if if you're into you know macroeconomics ism is one of the best macro indicators that you can use for forecasting anywhere from 3 to 22 months into the future of where things might be headed in the business cycle and the economy at large if you want to determine are we headed towards a recession are we coming out of a recession are things getting worse are things getting better ism is an amazing metric for figuring that out and essentially what it looks at is Supply Chain management and how much inventory producers sellers Etc have on hand at any given time and this lets you know kind of like you know consumer strength producer strength and all that type of stuff so whereas the Federal Reserve and our leaders use lagging indicators what are lagging indicators things like unemployment right that tells you a snapshot of the past right you're seeing the final result if you will of today's unemployment but that occurred because of things that happened let's say 6 months ago 9 months ago then we have things like consumer spending we have things like PPI and CPI like inflation data right all of that can lag up to 12 to 18 months and that is what the FED uses to determine okay we've done enough we can go ahead and lower interest rates or vice versa right we lowered interest rates too long we're headed into you know inflation times we shouldn't have done that now we're going to you know raise interest rates so not only did they raise interest rates late but they're they're also taking a lot longer than they should have to lower them back down so we don't rely on the FED is essentially what I'm getting at here we look at macro data metrics that are what you would refer to as leading indicators that can actually predict very accurately not 100% right nothing in the economy in the market is 100% but with a solid level of confidence anywhere from 3 to 24 months ahead which gives us a serious advantage in the markets if you know what to look for so an ism below 50 is typically letting us know we're headed into a recession or we may already be in one these aren't like steadfast rules right you don't have Janet Yellen or Jerome pal go oh we hit 50 on the ism we're now in a recession right they don't do that they actually do the opposite they try to basically change the definition of words in real time to say oh we're not actually in a recession and they you know they do what they do so an ism below 50 will let us know that we are in a contraction phase of the business cycle whereas an ism breaking above 50 is typically indicative of letting us know that we're coming out of a recession and money supply and the business cycle is entering its EXP expansionary phase right these things move like an EEG or like a stochastic up down up down heartbeat type Rhythm right so when you see something go super up you know that things are going to have to come back down this is just the cyclical nature of the universe and the economy is no different there are seasons right so 2020 was an insane run but we had to cool off and you can see that on this chart look at how things went from the bottom of 2020 and we went all the way up and we almost touched 65 on the general ISM and then the leading indicator went a little higher and then we had to come all the way back down to about 45 and really cool off and then we kind of rebounded right in the middle of this year and now we're starting to see things push back up higher now what's interesting to note is that this light blue line is the 5mon leading indicator of where things are like going to be whereas the white line is where things are today so remember we're looking at leading indicators these are high probability outcomes but they are not perfect having said that ISM you can see the correlation of this chart it's not like they're perfectly mapped up over each other at all times but the correlation is extremely high looking at this I would say this is at least you know about a 90% Cor ation and you can see that over the next 5 months we are headed from you know lows of let's say 45 all the way up to about 55 what does this mean translation make it simple Jeremy this is confusing it just means that that's telling us that there is business strength consumer strength supply chain strength and that tends to be a very very accurate historically Tim tested macroeconomic indicator to let us know we're entering a bull market we're in a bull market ladies and gentlemen whether the naysayers want to you know admit it or not whether they're in denial or not whether they're coping or not we're in a bull market and I've been saying that for about depending if we're talking about stocks about a year ago I was talking about buying the bottom you know going into 2023 I was screaming seeming to be buying Tesla AMD Etc and you know we watch them absolutely rip 100 150% higher and you know over the last 9ish months starting in about spring of 2023 I started getting very loud and vocal about buying crypto I believed that the bottom was in and part of why I believe that is because I don't just listen to smart people on YouTube or Twitter a lot of these people don't understand macroeconomics and everything about investing is about information asymmetry if you have information that other people don't have you have an edge in the markets now let's check out the ism with an 11th Monon lead you can see that we're starting to form an even more bullish upwards structure and finally a 22mon lead you can see that we're looking at about 60 to 65 as far as the peak levels of ism over the next let's say roughly two years starting in 2024 as you can see on the chart that would mean that would take us to the end of 2025 heading into 2026 so this is showing us going into 2024 that we are in the economic spring and we're heading into a full-blown summer as far as the business cycle is concern summer is the hottest season most people's favorite season economically speaking that is when the most money is made economic summer in the business cycle is the peak exponential phase of expansion that is when the chart goes almost straight up and this is when life-changing money is made and it's also when you want to have your portfolio positioned for the most risk not stupid risk not shitcoin risk not mem coin risk but solid well researched well-placed bets that are considered high risk by most of the investment World our research and Analysis showed that we're in for a serious Bull Run specifically in crypto because I want to clarify remember today's video even though I'm talking a lot about macro it's because this is you know I'm a macro guy and I always want you guys to understand the bigger picture rather than just telling you things I want to show you why but having said that crypto moves independently of stocks not entirely I'm not saying they're uncorrelated but crypto moves first just like in the stock market semiconductors move first they sell off first and they also rebound first if you go back and study the charts from 2023 2022 you will see AMD Nvidia SMH Etc started running before Tesla Apple Microsoft and these other companies that's because semi conductors move to their own Rhythm then the other companies came in right so all of these Cycles move somewhat on their own Rhythm and together they create a macro cycle crypto kind of rebounds first so while there is going to be a general secular Bull Run that is going to benefit all of our investments because liquidity is going to expand M2 is going to expand we're in the very early stages of our next expansionary business cycle phase crypto specifically is what we're talking about here today and I'm showing you guys basically you know kind of like our base case in our bull case if you will of what we're expecting for 2024 2025 and how to position yourself the last thing I want to clarify is according to ISM which is an excellent indicator that I consider consistently use it actually helped me time the bottom when everyone else was screaming afraid to buy saying we're going to go lower I don't know who in their right mind wasn't loading every penny they had when Tesla touched $100 but I was when Bitcoin touched $6 $118,000 I was everyone said we're going lower and that is shortterm bias I've learned from my mistakes in the past I'm keenly aware that humans have a bias towards the short term and just because we've been in a year of pain or two years of pain our minds want to trick us that it's going to continue to be that way forever and we forget that just two years ago we were in up only mode and that is one of the biggest challenges of being an investor so anyway back to this ism is a very helpful indicator it's worked very well for me according to ISM front leading forecasting 22 months out that would take us to you know about a peak of the business cycle around January 2026 or December 2025 but I want to clarify that I'm not stating for fact we're going to have a crypto Bull Run that lasts until the end of 2025 however I am stating that it is absolutely an outcome that you should consider it is not unrealistic to think that that would happen having said that how long these business Cycles last can always change let's say the government starts printing money they start buying treasuries again expanding their balance sheet everyone's going absolutely apeshit interest rates are being lowered we're back in the [ __ ] Ponzi game again right time to make some money everything's going crazy and then inflation starts heating up heating up heating up they obviously are going to intervene so we don't live in a vacuum that's all I'm trying to say here now let's talk about liquidity liquidity runs everything the entire Market is dictated almost entirely by liquidity and it's kind of a hilarious thing because when you start to become proficient at investing you go through this phase where you think you're a genius you know when you start to you know get multiple wins in a row or you have a huge win or whatever it may be you start to be have a higher success rate with your trades or your investment you start to think that it's you and what people don't realize is that if you actually charted this stuff out and did the research the entire Market I'm talking any Market you want to talk about Commodities you want to talk about stocks bonds Metals Tech value investing doesn't matter roughly an 85 to 95% correlation to M2 in other words if you look at this white line that is the expansion of the money supply when it goes goes up the NASDAQ goes up almost perfectly when it pulls back and they shrink the money supply they constrict and contract the business cycle NASDAQ sells off when it goes up NASDAQ goes on these crazy runs and vice versa and I'll show you an even better chart on that on the next slide so what does this mean this means that it really doesn't matter what you invest in if economic liquidity AKA M2 the amount of money in existence at any given time if that is going down and interest rates are tightening that asset will likely lose money it will go down I don't care if you hold Bitcoin I don't care if you hold altcoins I don't care if you hold Tesla I don't care if you hold Coca-Cola I don't care if you hold the S&P I don't care if you hold safe and secure value Investments it does not matter this also means that if you invest when M2 is expanding they're expanding the amount of money in circulation and interest rates are loose or loosening that asset I don't care what it is a meme coin a shitcoin an unprofitable company which there's a ton of in the stock market a new IPO or an actual excellent investment like Tesla AMD Apple Etc that asset will make money period And so because of this it can become pretty easy to mistake yourself for a genius during a bull market and for an absolute idiot during a bare Market but actually all this is is not understanding liquidity and this took me a few years to really get down you don't want to be in a market during a bare Market you don't want to be trying to buy a falling knife you don't want to be trying to buy the dip when they're Contracting M2 just stay out of the market do not add until they're done Contracting M2 it's very simple I didn't say it was easy but it is simple and so I've been sitting in cash for two years and I started deploying in 2023 because we essentially bottomed on ISM and M2 and I'm teaching you things that I've never seen talked about on the internet these are this is a very simple framework this isn't rocket science to track M2 and if M2 is expanding you're going to make money real estate everything goes up because we live in a Ponzi system so the question I want to ask you to really like get your mind going with this did the asset actually increase in economic value and productivity that it provides to the economy or did the money supply simply expand and thus more money flowed into said stock and investment and into the bank account account of said company via expanded profits that is the question of the current economy economic system that we live in I'll leave that for you to decide but this Ponzi scheme of a model is the reality in the US economy and really the global economy so I'm here to show you how to win at this game okay so now we're going to get a little bit more specific I wanted to show you this one other chart so you can see all of those dots are the NASDAQ over time all the way from 2008 to 2023 and then you have the global liquidity index now the global liquidity index is basically M2 all you need to know about this chart is that you're seeing a 95% correlation between the NASDAQ over 15 years and M2 expanding if M2 goes down NASDAQ goes down M2 goes up NASDAQ goes up that is a 95% correlation do you want to bet against a 95% correlation right so in that sense I just really simplified investing for you and I'm teaching you all this to prove a point before we get into the more granular aspects of our crypto thesis here's where I'm going with this the question becomes if you're going to invest into an economy in which liquidity dictates whether your Investments go up or down and almost all assets have close to a 90% correlation to the expansion and the contraction of the money supply and of business Cycles you might as well find and invest heavily into the assets that have the highest upside performance and risk adjusted return because think about it if the money supply expands these will outperform every else and then if the money supply contracts and you're wrong well everything's going to go down anyways everything goes down when they contract M2 you will lose money the economy will enter a recession 100% that is what it means to be in a fiat-based debt system but if you play this right and you enter into the right Investments when money supply is expanding not all Investments are created equal and more specifically nothing will touch the returns you will see on crypto when money supply is expanding if you pull up the charts during 2020 for example when they printed 40% of the entire money in existence in about 12 to 18 months you go look at crypto's performance and you compare that to even the highest growth growth stocks like Tesla it is baffling so what is the Lu's investment thesis and why why do we focus on these and why why don't we budge on expanding our investment options and giving you guys more options well because we've been preparing for this and when the money supply expands and we enter into the expansion phase of the business cycle which we are right now in 2024 and 2025 the returns that you can and will see on our select investment classes will run laps around being in invested in a lot of other companies and asset classes there are levels and so if you only have $100,000 and you choose to invest it in the S&P and the S&P goes up 30% that year which is unheard of well that's great now you have $130,000 but there's an opportunity cost because you didn't put that $100,000 in Bitcoin and Bitcoin 5x so you actually lost money your money would have went from $100,000 to $500,000 or more but it only went to $130,000 so you actually lost let's say $300,000 or more that is how you want to be thinking right so what do we do about it let's talk about our 2024 and 2025 thesis these two charts on the right show you Global M2 one of them on the top one is global M2 specifically year-over-year and the other one is fed net liquidity right is is a Fed increasing or decreasing its balance sheet you can see that we bottomed at the end of 2022 this is what I was talking about this was when AMD bottomed this was when Tesla bottomed and I was buying but if you don't know how to track these metrics then you would not have any clue of that because fear was still at all-time high and inflation readings hadn't changed yet because these are forward-looking metrics right and when you're in invested in growth stocks when you're invested in Technology Innovation cryptocurrency these assets are forward-looking about 6 to9 months generally that's just a rule of thumb just so you guys know when you look at Global M2 we've been on a rise since we bottomed at the end of 2022 and we're actually back up to a 5% is expansion and remember I talked about the stochastic nature right it looks like a heartbeat graph down up down up down up and they're generally pretty inversely correlated so if we see a small down we'll see a small up and if we see a big down we usually see a big up well you can see how far we sold off on that Global M2 chart we were plus 20 after how much printing we did in 2020 and then we tanked from plus 20 all the way down to -5 almost straight down and while that sucked the beautiful thing is that we're do for an inverse swing of similar proportions now and we're just now starting to swing back to a slightly expanded money supply and remember I said we're in the early stages of spring just wait until summer when this chart keeps going up the more money in circulation the more the Ponzi is on easy mode essentially and then we look at fed net liquidity and you see kind of the same thing we bottomed we had a vicious selloff and now we're due to rise back into 2024 2025 so some basic pieces of our crypto thesis number one you have election year seasonality if you study the election years over the past 100 plus years Whenever there is an election that year the stock market typically outperforms notably and you can look up the specific numbers I didn't do a whole presentation slide on that in here because I'm trying to keep this concise 2024 is an election year both sides want to get elected it does not help anyone to have a shitty economy going into the election I'll put it that way people will not vote for you to get reelected etc etc so they pull their strings and they do what they do and we typically almost always have an amazing economy at least stock and equities wise we typically have a very bullish year heading into the election now we're coming out of a seriously shitty four years with Biden as our president right falling asleep at the wheel stumbling downstairs you know using a stunt double and so on and so forth it is very very likely based on polls and all the things that I've researched in scene we're likely going to see a Republican president I don't know who that is I don't personally really care doesn't really affect my life it's all fake anyway having said that uh Republicans are very very bullish for the the economy they're going to give tax breaks they're going to do things to incentivize economic growth whereas typically Democrats are going to do things to stifle economic growth and Innovation right so we saw some insane runs when Trump was in office because he did what any capitalist would do he made tweaks and signed policies and such to promote wealth generation and help people build wealth so would be very bullish but it is not needed even if we were to get a Democrat the election year and of itself is a very bullish year so that's number one but we want to look for multiple areas of Confluence meaning we want to look through a lot of different lenses and see do all the lenses tell the same story or are they conflicting with one another this is how we decide on how confident we are about a certain thesis so number two the FED has came out and said very straightforward there are going to be multiple interest rate Cuts in 2020 24 so they've already paused but they haven't come out with their first cut March 2024 is very likely going to be their first cut and the market has only priced in them cutting two to three times next year with the interest rates but some very very smart minds and some data that I've been looking into points more towards up to five to six interest rate Cuts if you study historically once the FED fin does pivot and start cutting interest rates they often don't stop it doesn't really make sense how we went from 0% interest rates or even negative for a short period of time in 2020 all the way up to five six and Beyond depending which interest rates we're talking about that they would then go okay we're going to cut it to 4.5 okay we'll cut it to four okay we're going to hang out there they typically run the cycles just like the business Cycles if they're cutting they're cutting if they're raising they're raising so we will see but that would be quite bullish even more so because the market hasn't priced it in when it priced it in that would mean that things would jump even higher then we have the FED ending quantitative tightening which I talked about aka the contraction of the business cycle in 2024 I explained and I've showed all the different data for you to understand why that is things are no longer Contracting and we're entering a new year so think about it like this people are going to have the hype of the new year a fresh start right new year new me there's an election a chance for a fresh start right all the people that believe in that there's a chance for a shift in power in terms of Republican Democrat then there's also signs of Hope in the economy inflation is cooling off they're being told that inflation isn't an issue anymore there's different conversations in the news so all of this creates kind of a macro thesis of the Mass's sentiment around investing there's not really much fear in the market anymore people are looking forward to different things there's optimism then we have business cycle expansion that begins in 2024 as I've walked you guys through throughout all of 2024 and 2025 before peing in the late 2025 this is very bullish very bullish we also have the FED starting to print money and buy government treasuries to prop up the market that's a fancy way of describing quantitative easing which is what they do during expansion phases of the business cycle and this is going to take place in 2024 and 2025 very likely it goes hand inand right when they start lowering rates they also start doing what they do because once again they kind of have to they cannot pay the interest payments owed on to service their debt so they really only have one option print it and they're going to do that until we reach the absolute Cliff of the fourth turning that we're in and the US dollar is devalued to Oblivion they've already committed to their strategy that's why we have things like bricks going on and all this other stuff in the world where China and Russia and these other nations see the writing on the wall they're just going to I guess we're going to have one last harah maybe two and then the dollar is going to cease to exist and we'll probably transition to a digital currency so print it send it you guys got one or two bull markets to build generational wealth and then you know it's going to be a different world I'll tell you that then we have the 2024 Bitcoin ETF extremely bullish obviously the inflows on that as soon as institutional money is able to come in Pension funds Saudi funds governments as soon as publicly traded businesses are able to hold it on their balance sheet and actually use the proper account accoun in measurements to to benefit from that all of that is extremely bullish then you have the whole media side of things the narrative everyone's going to be talking about it you're going to have grandmas buying it you're going to have taxi drivers asking about it extremely bullish once the Bitcoin ETF paves the way then we're going to have conversation around an ethereum ETF that is you know even higher risk the big dogs love ethereum it's kind of the sister to bitcoin even though they're totally different ethereum ETF will be be more like late 2024 or 2025 so I'm expecting to see Bitcoin ripping off of the Bitcoin ETF news once that comes through and you know all the flows start to come in over that year and then when things cool off it's going to transition and it's going to become all about ethereum which is what dictates when altcoins run so ethereum running is going to be very bullish for altcoins that is kind of the cycle that things play through lastly you know right now all of the hype is about AI gaming crypto all of these narratives are starting to enter the mainstream this is very bullish as well so we have so much Confluence going on of all of these different factors pointing Us in the same direction is there risk of a World War absolutely is there a be case that could be made absolutely what I'm focusing on today is what I am placing my bets on and what I advise you guys place your bets on does that mean put every single penny you own into crypto absolutely not this is why we teach asset allocation you should never be 100% allocated to one asset class having said that the risk is far far higher for being under allocated or not allocated at all to crypto than it is to being allocated notably to crypto in other words if it works out the upside side is unfathomably higher than if it doesn't work out and you see that downside one of them will change your life forever the other would just be a temporary setback or a waiting game depending so let's bring this full circle and get more specific here why are we so bullish on crypto Jeremy you keep talking about macro data but you haven't really explained the crypto piece all right look this is a chart showing Bitcoin versus the SNP over the last 10 11 years so since 2013 Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P by 88% a year I'm going to clarify that that does not mean that Bitcoin has performed 88% growth per year that means that it has outperformed the S&P an additional 88% compared to the snp's performance so what does that mean that means if you can fathom this that by investing in the S&P you're losing 88% of your wealth per year to bitcoin that means that over a long enough time period Bitcoin will swallow up every other asset class as the US dollar slowly declines and Bitcoin not so slowly expands fans no other asset classes are able to touch crypto the only ones in that conversation are technology and disruptive innovation that is fueling the shift from the information age that we've been in to the age of autonomy digitization and artificial intelligence that is why our stock picks are solely technology companies that are leading the way semiconductor chips EVS AI that's about it so to come full circle if you know that the money supply expanding most heavily favors disruptive technology and Innovation such as cryptocurrency and high growth AI companies why wouldn't you place the largest bets there people have been so programmed into diversification and safe and secure you don't understand that these safe bets are actually the highest risk bets because what are we actually talking about when we're referring to safe or risky we're talking about the potential of not realizing our goals right when we invest we want to build wealth right so something that would be safe would infer that we were we had a higher likelihood of Building Wealth and something that were risky would mean that we have a lower likelihood of Building Wealth so I actually view our investments as the safest I view the SNP as risky I view bonds as risky I view slow real real estate as risky I view value investing as risky I view investing in companies that aren't yet profitable as risky I view owning the right cryptocurrencies that are the future as safe I view owning Tesla as safe but Jeremy it has 50 60 70% drawbacks a year yeah yeah that's what it's like there's volatility that doesn't equate to risk so this is where our Lu and investing thesis focuses and this is why hopefully after today's macro succinct Master Class you kind of understand a lot more clearly now why we're so obsessed with these asset classes when [ __ ] is bad when the economy is Contracting when everyone's fearful everything goes down so you might as well place your bets on the things that when things turn around and the season changes and we enter spring and summer and we're the winter is behind us we made it certain things 10x certain things 5x certain things 2X and certain things go up 10% make it make sense as to why you would invest in the things that go up 10% or 50% when there are other asset classes that you could become absolutely confident in the way that I am when when I speak about this stuff that would retire you in under a decade and that is what we're all about here so there is an opportunity cost to not investing enough in crypto versus any other asset that is why I'm filming this for everyone to watch in the crypto section because this is our most broad macro thesis of crypto for 2024 2025 and really heading into a 2030 world but specifically our next Bull Run is 2024 2025 and it has already begun guys so buckle up so if we map out Bitcoin versus liquidity look at the correlation here the white line once again is M2 if you look at the left chart when M2 goes up Bitcoin rips it overshoots M2 when M2 goes up and then it pulls back Bitcoin pulls back hard then it S curve right just like the business cycle then it goes back up rips then it pulled back didn't it 2022 2023 and we we've seen a steep correction now we're seeing this kind of like support line forming and we're starting to see it curl up aren't we what do you think's coming next 2024 2025 it's very obvious I mean it's very obvious then we look at this chart on the right we have Bitcoin year-over-year growth it overshoots the chart sometimes when money supply expands it shoots above 600 100% you can't even see it it's done it three times 2014 you can't even see it it's beyond 600% growth 2017 can't even see it 2020 2021 straight up can't even see it look where it is now we bottomed at the end of 2022 like I said which you would have only known if you were tracking ISM and M2 tuning out the noise tuning out the naysayers I don't care what this guy on crypto says I don't care what your Mentor says I don't care what your millionaire friend says it doesn't matter you need conviction you need your own convictions and your own data and research now we're turned back up where do you think we're going from here I'll let you be the judge so to close this out guys history as they say doesn't repeat but it often Rhymes take a look at this chart on the left I've posted this numerous times in slack it's literally the best chart in crypto you see a kind of a pump fake a pullback and then literal astronomical growth that was the first Bitcoin having that was the 2011 2012 Bitcoin having then we look at the 2014 pump pull back 2016 having astronomical growth then 2019 pump pulled back Bitcoin having in 2020 astronomical growth and I want to clarify when you have the Confluence of both the Bitcoin having which cuts the supply in half and you also expand M2 and the money supply at that same time you're pouring gasoline on a forest fire and that is what we're queued up to see in 20124 look at these three charts and you tell me what is more likely of an outcome to occur us to go up or down so we're going to wrap it up here guys I hope this gave you not only motivation and inspiration but more importantly Clarity take notes on this study this stuff start tracking these things this is how you become an intelligent investor it's not by listening to Jeremy all day it's not by following Jeremy's investment recommendations and being happy with your rois it's by becoming the person who doesn't even need Jeremy anymore that is my goal for all of you that is why I teach you so much about the underw workking of how did I come up with this and I'm always trying to teach you guys why so once again to recap 2024 2025 we're entering a business cycle expansion expect interest rates to drop expect multiple rate Cuts in 2024 expect the money supply to be expanded again and as soon as they turn on that game of musical chairs the Ponzi is back in full force just like in 2020 and it is time to to make some real [ __ ] generational money we've been preparing you guys depending how long you've been in the group since 2020 for this buckle up get allocated get clear on your strategy get clear on your exit plan and let's have some fun peace and love guys