Weather Update with Meteorologist Brian Shields

thank you for joining me I'm meteorologist Brian Shields and thank you for subscribing and being part of this weather Community this is why I do it the comments throughout the day let us know what's going on where you are or what's not going on now we're thinking of you in St fin of the Grenadines and our islands of Grenada as this will take a direct hit yesterday I was talking about in the video uh these don't move in a straight line especially bigger systems it's not a straight line they wobble a little bit and we would see where the wobbles would go some of us are going to do better uh than expected some of us though worse and the worst end of this is going to be St fin to the Grenadines and Grenada little wobble to the South that's helping us out Dominica martinque St Lucia even Barbados been up all night with you and we haven't had a whole lot of uh rain but the core of this is moving right toward Grenada Grenada same fin the Grenadines and stronger tropical storm conditions now for Tobago since it took a little wobble to the South so here it is this is powerful hurricane Barrel I want to get into what it's doing now what it will do throughout the day and what it's going to do next as it Works its way across the Caribbean watching Jamaica eventually Biz and the Yucatan and all Islands matter whether we have a few people or little people I'm watching this for everyone so I want to go Island by Island and cover this uh for you as we uh move forward but now I do want to touch on this too the Bay of campee here's Mexico this briefly formed overnight this was tropical storm Chris we've been tracking this together for about a week it did spin up that's going to bring some heavier rain into Mexico uh so I'll monitor that as we go through throughout the day I'll get to those rain totals in a moment but there is powerful hurricane barrel uh that is going to continue to work into the Caribbean today back behind it this disturbance is not better organized this is the one that still may try to become a tropical storm on the heels uh right behind Barrel not seeing anything too terribly strong and another strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa which which is normal now here's the latest information uh there are tropical storm watches up now for or rather these are her or yeah tropical storm uh watches up for Haiti in the Dominican Republic the cor of it is going to stay to the south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic we'll see some rain moving in and this will stay south of Puerto Rico again this will stay south of Puerto Rico but Jamaica this will be moving in by the time uh we get into Wednesday or at least close to us I'm hoping the core stays just the South so I'll get into Jamaica the Cayman Islands Yucatan and Biz as we move forward but let me get to what's going on now this is the immediate concern s Vincent the Grenadines Grenada these brighter colors that is the core of this the core is the middle around the eyewall that's where the worst weather is so Barbados it's going to be moving away we've done better uh Tobago though some tropical storm conditions this is late morning and then we have that Direct Hit late morning through early afternoon St Vincent of the Grenadines and Grenada again that's where most of this is if you're not there uh I'm thankful for that but I I am thinking of our friends in St Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada this is 5 o' 5:00 pm we're still going to have either hurricane or tropical storm conditions but then it starts to work work away by the time we hit 8:00 it starts to move away and you can see the core of the Winds not as much Martinique uh to the north I'll go Island by Island in a moment but there are the hurricane winds right moving into St vinon the Grenadines now uh down through here's Grenada in our islands of Grenada and you could see the core of this moves in wins 145 kilometers an hour that's about 90 miles hour there will be some higher gust there's the Corvett staying to the north of Trinidad and Tobago although we'll have the Gusty winds especially in Tobago today this is 2 o' hurricane conditions St Vincent the Grenadines and Grenada St Lucia we're on the edge of it we're going to know there's a big system nearby right but most of it stays to the South we will have tropical storm conditions I'll touch on that in a moment and then by 8:00 on the backside still Gusty winds but that's when things start to move away start to work across the Caribbean so let me get into the bigger picture and what's also going to happen next so this is uh later today you see again here is Barrel this is what's left of Chris tropical storm very brief one bringing some of the rain back toward Mexico here's jica Cayman Islands Haiti and the Dr this is tomorrow as we work our way into tomorrow afternoon this is 2 o'clock this is south of Puerto Rico some rain may break free and move in and we'll see some heavier rain try to work into parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic but the middle of this system will be to the South I know some other channels like to make it look like every Storm's going to hit everyone uh but that is not the case I like to also mention where it's not going now as we get toward Wednesday though this system starts to work into Jamaica which we need to take those preparations because sometimes it looks like it's going to be a direct hit of a hurricane other times it looks like it would be just to the South but would still give us tropical storm conditions so regardless there's going to be some sort of impacts in Jamaica I'm going to spell that out in a moment and then the Cayman Islands now the Cayman Islands the center of this the core of it will be South uh but we are going to see some rain breaking uh freeing kind of moving in so I'm going to be monitoring this for the Cayman Islands this would be by Thursday and then you see that second system that's going to work in Wednesday into Thursday in the Eastern Caribbean that may or may not become a tropical storm but that will either way increase our rain this is Thursday afternoon and you can see here's Biz and here's Mexico late term there's been a little bit more of a shift to the South that would bring either tropical storm or hurricane conditions to parts of bise mainly on the North side and then up toward Mexico this is by Friday and Friday we'll watch whatever's kind of left of that system back toward the Eastern Caribbean now there's going to be some weakening in here in the Western Caribbean that's because of the wind sheare uh we're going to see some wind sheare out of the W wind shear is good it's it the thunderstorms with these hurricanes come across the wind share comes in the opposite direction and just knocks it across so I'm hoping hoping oping for a little more weakening so let me break down the northern Caribbean here here are the Cayman Islands here's Jamaica Haiti the Dominican Republic there are the winds in kilometers per hour and miles per hour to give you both of the scales this is Tuesday so Puerto Rico this is to the South uh Haiti and the Dr we're going to get brushed by the tropical storm conditions I mentioned over Tor jock Mel even Boston blue we could see some of the gustier Winds moving in watching out for the rain threat in Haiti and the Dr but there's the center of this is the core of it the red and yellow shading popping up those would be the hurricane conditions so Jamaica by Wednesday morning we'll start to get some tropical storm conditions moving in to our Eastern zones now I'm not sure yet I tell you what I know and what I don't know there's a lot of variables with the weather as you well know uh I'm not sure if this will be a Direct Hit or just to the South but either way even if the core is just to the South you see it here that would keep the hurricane conditions So Close by but just offshore and that would give us tropical storm conditions on Wednesday so it's either going to be tropical storm or hurricane conditions either way we're getting something in Jamaica then the system will be moving in throughout the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night and then we'll see tropical storm or hurricane conditions uh near the Cayman Islands the worst weather would be just to the south of our big island but you can see again some gustier winds that will be moving in in the Cayman Islands Cayman Islands yes gustier winds uh we'll see a bit of a a surge higher Seas but I'm cautiously optimistic this is late on Thursday but I'm going to be watching for changes we know this is down the road there's going to be changes so we're still everything I talked about yesterday on track Haiti and the Dr we're in monitor mode yes some tropical storm conditions are possible my biggest concern will be flooding with some of the river Crossings in Haiti and the Dr as we work our way back toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands we are in action mode because of the uh kind of variability with this the fact we could get some changes but Jamaica I want to stress we're going to get something either way there tropical storm conditions or hurricane conditions so we're we're taking that action to be safe and again thinking of others too that may have not gone through this so you guys are all so kind uh helping others through these systems Cayman Islands we're taking the preps because we don't have many if things change we don't we don't have much time we're talking about uh on Wednesday into Thursday where we could get tropical storm or hurricane conditions close by so we need to be safe and that just makes sense the window of time closing yes that would be great if this stays to the south of the Cayman Islands uh but we need to take some of the preps now again that's that's why we do this together uh we got to make some of those preps now I want to go more to the West here here's Mexico here's Biz and this is the yucatana of Mexico uh down through bise uh we're taking those hurricane preps and I want to mention uh my my friends in some of the islands there's a lot of islands but for example as you get toward Honduras you get toward ratan uh Providencia uh San Andreas we do need to take those preps because again we're smaller Islands uh we don't have as much time so we're taking those preparations we're using our common sense but we are in action mode bise we're thinking about hey what could happen if a tropical storm moves in late Thursday into Friday so that's what you need have tropical storm may move in later this week what do I need to start doing same thing over toward the yucatana Mexico and it could be a hurricane too not quite sure on the intensity I'll show you why in a second now the second system back behind this this is this is that little area I showed you in the Atlantic this may move in if it does it looks like at worst it would be tropical storm conditions it's going to increase our chance of rain Barbados St Vin the grenadians again and especially North so something monitoring if anything flares up big on that I'll let you know but I'm you know I'm watching everyone uh and watching that chance of rain even increasing up toward Ina Barbuda later this week so the models in good agreement in the short term a little bit more West Northwest as a whole that's kind of that turn uh we were expecting the models this is a tricky map my friends in Jamaica and you could help others in Jamaica with this you see all these lines are like hey this is going to miss us but look what's happening over toward Grenada right now it's not a little it's these storms are not small they're very large system so even if the center is offshore which I'm hoping it is and that's what I'm leaning to now they're bigger system so that would bring us tropical storm conditions if a center tracks just to the South makes sense we're going to have some gustier winds Center should be to the south of the Cayman Islands but you see things shifting back toward uh Biz that would put it closer to Honduras as well so any anywhere in here we're taking some of those preps Coastal Honduras bise back toward the yucatana Mexico now this is those crazy lines again uh but this is going out in time this is a day out in time two days 3 days four days very weird graph I know this is showing how it's kind of that category 3 hurricane and then gradual weakening really has only one way to go it's so powerful at this point gradual weakening so as we get back uh to about 3 days from now still it looks like most most of the indications are it will become a hurricane why would there be gradual weakening well that's some of the wind shear that I was talking about so let let's get into that here this is the European model you can see the direct hit for St Vince of the Grenadines and Grenada today here's Cuba here's Jamaica here's what's left of Chris bringing that rain over toward Mexico here's Biz right now now there are a couple fronts to the north those fronts sometimes uh tug on these systems a little bit they draw them a little bit more to the north and that's what we're seeing we're not going to see a huge tug that's why I'm saying Puerto Rico this is to the South High Anxiety time so I'd like to let you know where it's also not going now this is as we work our way out in time tomorrow core of the system is to the South here uh just to the south of the Dr and Haiti but on on our southern coast and right I mean we we hit the high terrain so quickly uh we're going to see the potential of flooding with some of that rain moving in there's that front moving away uh kind of tugging a little bit to the north we've got another front back here High high pressure though generally dominant in the Southeast us keeping this action closer or in the Caribbean you see those areas of high pressure now Jamaica the European model uh keeps this as a hurricane very close by scraping by uh just to the south of us and as I was talking about that would give us those tropical storm conditions European model seeing this as well as the uh the American model and almost all of the models at least tropical storm conditions for Jamaica and there's that second area so Anguilla T Barbuda on Wednesday St kids and nevas we may get a bump up in rain that could be some good news because Northeastern Caribbean we've been so uh so dry now couple fronts here but high pressure still the dominant area keeping these systems in the Caribbean that's why we're seeing that Westerly and West northwesterly motion with these so this is on Wednesday and let's go out in time here we'll go from Wednesday into Thursday here's Jamaica Cayman Islands the worst would be to the South but the you know we're smaller Islands as a whole so we're taking those preps uh in case because if things change we don't we don't have a lot of time and then a tropical storm or hurricane very close to you see here's Honduras uh here's bise here's the Yucatan and the European model has a strong tropical storm uh working its way or even a hurricane into the Yucatan over toward bise once we hit uh Friday so you could see that right there little front up to the north but generally that's staying there high pressure building in Back to the uh East so again we're going to see this system a long haul system marching across the Caribbean water temperature super warm I was talking about yesterday the Hot Pockets the warm deep water we have that in place and just to give you a feel across the Caribbean we're talking about 29° C 84 degrees Fahrenheit these water temperatures we're now into July but they're acting more like what we would have next month a little bit ahead of schedule uh it's been so so warm in the water we didn't cool off as much uh this past winter and that's what we were tracking together this winter now this map super crazy uh this is on Wednesday here's Jamaica here's our system here there's a little L here this is our system here you see this kind of a yellow shading in here and then orange shading by Cuba that's the wind shear that is good I'm hoping the wind shear is a little bit more to help decrease some of the strength but it's It's Tricky system you may hear hey this is starting to lose its steam well it's still going to be a tropical storm or hurricane as it moves through the Caribbean so we need to be very careful uh because this is really going to impact some of us now the short term St F the Grenadines and Grenada that's where most of the rain is today with those very high totals will go Island by Island in a second but you see how it's such a sharp divide in these these wobbles that have helped us out and Dominica and Martinique even Barbados the wobble last night to the South has helped us out in Barbados no doubt we do not wish this on anyone but we look at some uh good news uh but the wobble South is going to bring those tropical storm conditions to Tobago throughout the day and you see the pluma moisture uh well well south of Puerto Rico but we are going to see some of the rain trying to break free Haiti the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico the next few days and look at Jamaica I mentioned the tropical storm conditions we're not only talking winds we're going to see The increased chance of rain and flooding by the time we H Wednesday and here's that core of some of the rain you see right here in Mexico uh always looking at my friends in Mexico we so need it rain desperately uh for months and months and now we're getting it almost too much high risk of flooding in parts of Mexico today near the Bay of Campa as this moves in so let's go uh I want to go Island by Island now here's Dominica simply put the worst weathers to the south in Dominica so that is some good news we may get some squalls Breaking Free some Gusty winds at times but clearly the worst weather is to the South Martinique same thing worst weather is to the South we'll get some Gusty winds some tropical storm gust at times right but the worst weather stays to the South keep me post it in the comments let's swing towards St Lucia we are so on the borderline we're thinking of our friends just to the South the of this the worst part is going to be south of St Lucia what we were talking about yesterday could be a little worse could be a little bit better this is a little bit better but still some of the Gusty winds tropical storm conditions at times as we go throughout the day Barbados the system is now moving away the wobble to the South helped yesterday didn't even have a lot of rain overnight you did we we did uh there's so many preparations which was so so good can't take any chances so so smart in Barbados uh but it will start to work away still the chance of some tropical storm conditions for today now we get here St Vincent in the Grenadines this where is where the worst weather is winds could be as high as in this is very close to what we were talking about yesterday 180 km an hour 110 miles per hour for some of our Islands uh that is going to lead to of course power loss a lot of the grids have shut down Power Systems have already shut down ahead of this water systems as well uh structures are going to be damaged in parts of St Vincent and the Grenadines not all the structures but we are going to take on damage we're going to take on some damage in Gren too especially to the north northern islands uh winds uh 180 km an hour or 110 mph now there's going to be rain that could lead to some flooding but at least the system is is moving I mentioned the forward speed is it's it's not it's not slow so that is good news let's get this in and get this out now Trinidad we're going to do okay Tobago that's where we're going to see some tropical storm conditions we could have some gust 50 60 MPH uh 80 to 95 an hour today giving us some rain the worst of it does stay to the North and then eventually moving away but Tobago the wobble to the South that has helped us out in Barbados will bring us some of those tropical storm conditions now here's Jamaica this is on Wednesday on Wednesday this is my initial call for what's going to happen and why we need to take those uh preps it's going to be tricky um we are you know we are islands and all that stuff so uh just a small distance makes a big difference like we're seeing now with St Lucia Barbados Grenada on Wednesday Winds of 95 km an hour or 60 m per hour trop solid tropical storm conditions right so 60 m per hour winds at times on Wednesday in Jamaica 100 millimeters of rain or about 4 Ines of rain it could be higher than that though that'll be a concern but as of now I have the center of this being just to the South we'll see how that changes when I join you again but we're making the preparations because we're smart uh may as will uh definitely need to uh go ahead and uh do that so uh let's uh get a look at what we got going on here let me break down some forecast here and switch over uh let me jump here I'm going to jump scoop back a little bit just to give you a heads up here here's Jamaica the next couple days uh we're taking some of those preps Wednesday that's the day we're watching let's jump over here Cayman Islands we're watching Wednesday into Thursday looks like most of the weather will be to the South but as you know especially our Mariners boaters uh we can't take many chances so we're doing what we need to do to uh be smart Trinidad and Tobago worst weather Tobago for today and then we'll watch out for that surge of moisture that second system trying to work into the Eastern Caribbean uh Barbados Barrel is moving away Wednesday though we'll see that rain and some gustier winds picking up we'll see if that area tries to turn into a tropical storm same thing in St Lucia worst weather just just to the south in St Lucia Grenada we've covered this Grenada St Vincent of the Grenadines that's where barrel uh has decided to go that's where Barrel is working in Martinique we could see some of those squalls squalls are some of the rain bands kind of filtering in throughout the day same thing in Domin that at times could give us some tropical storm conditions same thing in guadaloop we may see some of that rain from barrel trying to break free and tun Barbuda by the middle of the week the rain chance will bump up right Northeastern Caribbean middle of the week rain chance will start to get higher same thing St kit andas and moerat rain chance a little higher later in the week Anguilla and St and you see on Wednesday up to a 50% chance St Martin saba and staia rain chance Puerto Rico about a 60% chance tomorrow as this passes to the South it'll enhance that easterly flow bump up the rain chance but a barrel itself the big part of it stays to the south of Puerto Rico and it stays to the south of my friends in the US and British Virgin Islands I know one map I didn't get to was the uh the wave heights but what I showed you yesterday does hold the wave height map does hold yesterday uh Bermuda rain chance about 40% or Bahamas rather about 40% scattered about for us in the Bahamas all of the action staying to the South Turks and cost about a 20% chance you see as we hit uh Tuesday a 70% chance of rain and storms across the Dr favoring our Southern Zone Southern zones and Haiti on Tuesday so that is tomorrow brushing by with some tropical storm conditions then we swing over here in B we're making the preparations for the potential of a tropical storm or hurricane moving in later this week but in the meantime time we do have some rain to speak up Aruba Kiran boner most of this has been missing us about a 20 to 30 even upwards of a 50% chance of rain by the time we get into the middle of the week little bump up in the rain chance midweek Guyana still a 60% chance still some pockets of flooding suram a 60% chance of some of the rain and as we work our way toward Cuba all of this uh stays to the South the big tropical weather to the South scattered rain and storms 50% chance in Cuba 60% chance Costa Rica and Panama and about a 50 % chance across Nicaragua keep an eye on what happens with Barrel Honduras All Eyes Of course are on Barrel to see how close it gets to see how strong it tries to stay we'll watch out for that weakening Trend Guatemala pockets of some rain and storms around Mexico City with what's left of Chris working in uh that brief tropical storm we're going to watch out for some flooding not just today but over the next couple days in the yucatana Mexico all eyes on Barrel to see how that hangs together and works across the Caribbean Colombia we about a 40% chance of scattered storms Northern Venezuela 40% chance and now Bermuda tomorrow and Wednesday about a 50% chance so again my friends in Grenada St vinent the grenades we are locked down all day for sure all of us are thinking of you we're going to be watching to the West near Jamaica Cayman Islands Biz uh Mexico Honduras and then this little second area in the Atlantic I am watching that I'll be watching that to see how that tries to spin up but there's going to be a lot of action this year already is so we'll just track it storm by storm and thank you for doing your part in just spreading the word about this information so I'll do my best to get to the comments throughout the day I know I skipped over that map on the um the wave heights but it is very comparable to almost exactly what I was showing you yesterday so that is the good news forecast as a whole has been on track that gives us time to prepare for things so thank you for being part of this weather community and I hope you have a good and in very safe uh rest of your day

thank you for joining me I&#39;m meteorologist Brian Shields and thank you for subscribing and being part of this weather Community this is why I do it the comments throughout the day let us know what&#39;s going on where you are or what&#39;s not going on now we&#39;re thinking of you in St fin of the Grenadines and our islands of Grenada as this will take a direct hit yesterday I was talking about in the video uh these don&#39;t move in a straight line especially bigger systems it&#39;s not a straight line they wobble a little bit and we would see where the wobbles would go some of us are going to do better uh than expected some of us though worse and the worst end of this is going to be St fin to the Grenadines and Grenada little wobble to the South that&#39;s helping us out Dominica martinque St Lucia even Barbados been up all night with you and we haven&#39;t had a whole lot of uh rain but the core of this is moving right toward Grenada Grenada same fin the Grenadines and stronger tropical storm conditions now for Tobago since it took a little wobble to the South so here it is this is powerful hurricane Barrel I want to get into what it&#39;s doing now what it will do throughout the day and what it&#39;s going to do next as it Works its way across the Caribbean watching Jamaica eventually Biz and the Yucatan and all Islands matter whether we have a few people or little people I&#39;m watching this for everyone so I want to go Island by Island and cover this uh for you as we uh move forward but now I do want to touch on this too the Bay of campee here&#39;s Mexico this briefly formed overnight this was tropical storm Chris we&#39;ve been tracking this together for about a week it did spin up that&#39;s going to bring some heavier rain into Mexico uh so I&#39;ll monitor that as we go through throughout the day I&#39;ll get to those rain totals in a moment but there is powerful hurricane barrel uh that is going to continue to work into the Caribbean today back behind it this disturbance is not better organized this is the one that still may try to become a tropical storm on the heels uh right behind Barrel not seeing anything too terribly strong and another strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa which which is normal now here&#39;s the latest information uh there are tropical storm watches up now for or rather these are her or yeah tropical storm uh watches up for Haiti in the Dominican Republic the cor of it is going to stay to the south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic we&#39;ll see some rain moving in and this will stay south of Puerto Rico again this will stay south of Puerto Rico but Jamaica this will be moving in by the time uh we get into Wednesday or at least close to us I&#39;m hoping the core stays just the South so I&#39;ll get into Jamaica the Cayman Islands Yucatan and Biz as we move forward but let me get to what&#39;s going on now this is the immediate concern s Vincent the Grenadines Grenada these brighter colors that is the core of this the core is the middle around the eyewall that&#39;s where the worst weather is so Barbados it&#39;s going to be moving away we&#39;ve done better uh Tobago though some tropical storm conditions this is late morning and then we have that Direct Hit late morning through early afternoon St Vincent of the Grenadines and Grenada again that&#39;s where most of this is if you&#39;re not there uh I&#39;m thankful for that but I I am thinking of our friends in St Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada this is 5 o&#39; 5:00 pm we&#39;re still going to have either hurricane or tropical storm conditions but then it starts to work work away by the time we hit 8:00 it starts to move away and you can see the core of the Winds not as much Martinique uh to the north I&#39;ll go Island by Island in a moment but there are the hurricane winds right moving into St vinon the Grenadines now uh down through here&#39;s Grenada in our islands of Grenada and you could see the core of this moves in wins 145 kilometers an hour that&#39;s about 90 miles hour there will be some higher gust there&#39;s the Corvett staying to the north of Trinidad and Tobago although we&#39;ll have the Gusty winds especially in Tobago today this is 2 o&#39; hurricane conditions St Vincent the Grenadines and Grenada St Lucia we&#39;re on the edge of it we&#39;re going to know there&#39;s a big system nearby right but most of it stays to the South we will have tropical storm conditions I&#39;ll touch on that in a moment and then by 8:00 on the backside still Gusty winds but that&#39;s when things start to move away start to work across the Caribbean so let me get into the bigger picture and what&#39;s also going to happen next so this is uh later today you see again here is Barrel this is what&#39;s left of Chris tropical storm very brief one bringing some of the rain back toward Mexico here&#39;s jica Cayman Islands Haiti and the Dr this is tomorrow as we work our way into tomorrow afternoon this is 2 o&#39;clock this is south of Puerto Rico some rain may break free and move in and we&#39;ll see some heavier rain try to work into parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic but the middle of this system will be to the South I know some other channels like to make it look like every Storm&#39;s going to hit everyone uh but that is not the case I like to also mention where it&#39;s not going now as we get toward Wednesday though this system starts to work into Jamaica which we need to take those preparations because sometimes it looks like it&#39;s going to be a direct hit of a hurricane other times it looks like it would be just to the South but would still give us tropical storm conditions so regardless there&#39;s going to be some sort of impacts in Jamaica I&#39;m going to spell that out in a moment and then the Cayman Islands now the Cayman Islands the center of this the core of it will be South uh but we are going to see some rain breaking uh freeing kind of moving in so I&#39;m going to be monitoring this for the Cayman Islands this would be by Thursday and then you see that second system that&#39;s going to work in Wednesday into Thursday in the Eastern Caribbean that may or may not become a tropical storm but that will either way increase our rain this is Thursday afternoon and you can see here&#39;s Biz and here&#39;s Mexico late term there&#39;s been a little bit more of a shift to the South that would bring either tropical storm or hurricane conditions to parts of bise mainly on the North side and then up toward Mexico this is by Friday and Friday we&#39;ll watch whatever&#39;s kind of left of that system back toward the Eastern Caribbean now there&#39;s going to be some weakening in here in the Western Caribbean that&#39;s because of the wind sheare uh we&#39;re going to see some wind sheare out of the W wind shear is good it&#39;s it the thunderstorms with these hurricanes come across the wind share comes in the opposite direction and just knocks it across so I&#39;m hoping hoping oping for a little more weakening so let me break down the northern Caribbean here here are the Cayman Islands here&#39;s Jamaica Haiti the Dominican Republic there are the winds in kilometers per hour and miles per hour to give you both of the scales this is Tuesday so Puerto Rico this is to the South uh Haiti and the Dr we&#39;re going to get brushed by the tropical storm conditions I mentioned over Tor jock Mel even Boston blue we could see some of the gustier Winds moving in watching out for the rain threat in Haiti and the Dr but there&#39;s the center of this is the core of it the red and yellow shading popping up those would be the hurricane conditions so Jamaica by Wednesday morning we&#39;ll start to get some tropical storm conditions moving in to our Eastern zones now I&#39;m not sure yet I tell you what I know and what I don&#39;t know there&#39;s a lot of variables with the weather as you well know uh I&#39;m not sure if this will be a Direct Hit or just to the South but either way even if the core is just to the South you see it here that would keep the hurricane conditions So Close by but just offshore and that would give us tropical storm conditions on Wednesday so it&#39;s either going to be tropical storm or hurricane conditions either way we&#39;re getting something in Jamaica then the system will be moving in throughout the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night and then we&#39;ll see tropical storm or hurricane conditions uh near the Cayman Islands the worst weather would be just to the south of our big island but you can see again some gustier winds that will be moving in in the Cayman Islands Cayman Islands yes gustier winds uh we&#39;ll see a bit of a a surge higher Seas but I&#39;m cautiously optimistic this is late on Thursday but I&#39;m going to be watching for changes we know this is down the road there&#39;s going to be changes so we&#39;re still everything I talked about yesterday on track Haiti and the Dr we&#39;re in monitor mode yes some tropical storm conditions are possible my biggest concern will be flooding with some of the river Crossings in Haiti and the Dr as we work our way back toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands we are in action mode because of the uh kind of variability with this the fact we could get some changes but Jamaica I want to stress we&#39;re going to get something either way there tropical storm conditions or hurricane conditions so we&#39;re we&#39;re taking that action to be safe and again thinking of others too that may have not gone through this so you guys are all so kind uh helping others through these systems Cayman Islands we&#39;re taking the preps because we don&#39;t have many if things change we don&#39;t we don&#39;t have much time we&#39;re talking about uh on Wednesday into Thursday where we could get tropical storm or hurricane conditions close by so we need to be safe and that just makes sense the window of time closing yes that would be great if this stays to the south of the Cayman Islands uh but we need to take some of the preps now again that&#39;s that&#39;s why we do this together uh we got to make some of those preps now I want to go more to the West here here&#39;s Mexico here&#39;s Biz and this is the yucatana of Mexico uh down through bise uh we&#39;re taking those hurricane preps and I want to mention uh my my friends in some of the islands there&#39;s a lot of islands but for example as you get toward Honduras you get toward ratan uh Providencia uh San Andreas we do need to take those preps because again we&#39;re smaller Islands uh we don&#39;t have as much time so we&#39;re taking those preparations we&#39;re using our common sense but we are in action mode bise we&#39;re thinking about hey what could happen if a tropical storm moves in late Thursday into Friday so that&#39;s what you need have tropical storm may move in later this week what do I need to start doing same thing over toward the yucatana Mexico and it could be a hurricane too not quite sure on the intensity I&#39;ll show you why in a second now the second system back behind this this is this is that little area I showed you in the Atlantic this may move in if it does it looks like at worst it would be tropical storm conditions it&#39;s going to increase our chance of rain Barbados St Vin the grenadians again and especially North so something monitoring if anything flares up big on that I&#39;ll let you know but I&#39;m you know I&#39;m watching everyone uh and watching that chance of rain even increasing up toward Ina Barbuda later this week so the models in good agreement in the short term a little bit more West Northwest as a whole that&#39;s kind of that turn uh we were expecting the models this is a tricky map my friends in Jamaica and you could help others in Jamaica with this you see all these lines are like hey this is going to miss us but look what&#39;s happening over toward Grenada right now it&#39;s not a little it&#39;s these storms are not small they&#39;re very large system so even if the center is offshore which I&#39;m hoping it is and that&#39;s what I&#39;m leaning to now they&#39;re bigger system so that would bring us tropical storm conditions if a center tracks just to the South makes sense we&#39;re going to have some gustier winds Center should be to the south of the Cayman Islands but you see things shifting back toward uh Biz that would put it closer to Honduras as well so any anywhere in here we&#39;re taking some of those preps Coastal Honduras bise back toward the yucatana Mexico now this is those crazy lines again uh but this is going out in time this is a day out in time two days 3 days four days very weird graph I know this is showing how it&#39;s kind of that category 3 hurricane and then gradual weakening really has only one way to go it&#39;s so powerful at this point gradual weakening so as we get back uh to about 3 days from now still it looks like most most of the indications are it will become a hurricane why would there be gradual weakening well that&#39;s some of the wind shear that I was talking about so let let&#39;s get into that here this is the European model you can see the direct hit for St Vince of the Grenadines and Grenada today here&#39;s Cuba here&#39;s Jamaica here&#39;s what&#39;s left of Chris bringing that rain over toward Mexico here&#39;s Biz right now now there are a couple fronts to the north those fronts sometimes uh tug on these systems a little bit they draw them a little bit more to the north and that&#39;s what we&#39;re seeing we&#39;re not going to see a huge tug that&#39;s why I&#39;m saying Puerto Rico this is to the South High Anxiety time so I&#39;d like to let you know where it&#39;s also not going now this is as we work our way out in time tomorrow core of the system is to the South here uh just to the south of the Dr and Haiti but on on our southern coast and right I mean we we hit the high terrain so quickly uh we&#39;re going to see the potential of flooding with some of that rain moving in there&#39;s that front moving away uh kind of tugging a little bit to the north we&#39;ve got another front back here High high pressure though generally dominant in the Southeast us keeping this action closer or in the Caribbean you see those areas of high pressure now Jamaica the European model uh keeps this as a hurricane very close by scraping by uh just to the south of us and as I was talking about that would give us those tropical storm conditions European model seeing this as well as the uh the American model and almost all of the models at least tropical storm conditions for Jamaica and there&#39;s that second area so Anguilla T Barbuda on Wednesday St kids and nevas we may get a bump up in rain that could be some good news because Northeastern Caribbean we&#39;ve been so uh so dry now couple fronts here but high pressure still the dominant area keeping these systems in the Caribbean that&#39;s why we&#39;re seeing that Westerly and West northwesterly motion with these so this is on Wednesday and let&#39;s go out in time here we&#39;ll go from Wednesday into Thursday here&#39;s Jamaica Cayman Islands the worst would be to the South but the you know we&#39;re smaller Islands as a whole so we&#39;re taking those preps uh in case because if things change we don&#39;t we don&#39;t have a lot of time and then a tropical storm or hurricane very close to you see here&#39;s Honduras uh here&#39;s bise here&#39;s the Yucatan and the European model has a strong tropical storm uh working its way or even a hurricane into the Yucatan over toward bise once we hit uh Friday so you could see that right there little front up to the north but generally that&#39;s staying there high pressure building in Back to the uh East so again we&#39;re going to see this system a long haul system marching across the Caribbean water temperature super warm I was talking about yesterday the Hot Pockets the warm deep water we have that in place and just to give you a feel across the Caribbean we&#39;re talking about 29° C 84 degrees Fahrenheit these water temperatures we&#39;re now into July but they&#39;re acting more like what we would have next month a little bit ahead of schedule uh it&#39;s been so so warm in the water we didn&#39;t cool off as much uh this past winter and that&#39;s what we were tracking together this winter now this map super crazy uh this is on Wednesday here&#39;s Jamaica here&#39;s our system here there&#39;s a little L here this is our system here you see this kind of a yellow shading in here and then orange shading by Cuba that&#39;s the wind shear that is good I&#39;m hoping the wind shear is a little bit more to help decrease some of the strength but it&#39;s It&#39;s Tricky system you may hear hey this is starting to lose its steam well it&#39;s still going to be a tropical storm or hurricane as it moves through the Caribbean so we need to be very careful uh because this is really going to impact some of us now the short term St F the Grenadines and Grenada that&#39;s where most of the rain is today with those very high totals will go Island by Island in a second but you see how it&#39;s such a sharp divide in these these wobbles that have helped us out and Dominica and Martinique even Barbados the wobble last night to the South has helped us out in Barbados no doubt we do not wish this on anyone but we look at some uh good news uh but the wobble South is going to bring those tropical storm conditions to Tobago throughout the day and you see the pluma moisture uh well well south of Puerto Rico but we are going to see some of the rain trying to break free Haiti the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico the next few days and look at Jamaica I mentioned the tropical storm conditions we&#39;re not only talking winds we&#39;re going to see The increased chance of rain and flooding by the time we H Wednesday and here&#39;s that core of some of the rain you see right here in Mexico uh always looking at my friends in Mexico we so need it rain desperately uh for months and months and now we&#39;re getting it almost too much high risk of flooding in parts of Mexico today near the Bay of Campa as this moves in so let&#39;s go uh I want to go Island by Island now here&#39;s Dominica simply put the worst weathers to the south in Dominica so that is some good news we may get some squalls Breaking Free some Gusty winds at times but clearly the worst weather is to the South Martinique same thing worst weather is to the South we&#39;ll get some Gusty winds some tropical storm gust at times right but the worst weather stays to the South keep me post it in the comments let&#39;s swing towards St Lucia we are so on the borderline we&#39;re thinking of our friends just to the South the of this the worst part is going to be south of St Lucia what we were talking about yesterday could be a little worse could be a little bit better this is a little bit better but still some of the Gusty winds tropical storm conditions at times as we go throughout the day Barbados the system is now moving away the wobble to the South helped yesterday didn&#39;t even have a lot of rain overnight you did we we did uh there&#39;s so many preparations which was so so good can&#39;t take any chances so so smart in Barbados uh but it will start to work away still the chance of some tropical storm conditions for today now we get here St Vincent in the Grenadines this where is where the worst weather is winds could be as high as in this is very close to what we were talking about yesterday 180 km an hour 110 miles per hour for some of our Islands uh that is going to lead to of course power loss a lot of the grids have shut down Power Systems have already shut down ahead of this water systems as well uh structures are going to be damaged in parts of St Vincent and the Grenadines not all the structures but we are going to take on damage we&#39;re going to take on some damage in Gren too especially to the north northern islands uh winds uh 180 km an hour or 110 mph now there&#39;s going to be rain that could lead to some flooding but at least the system is is moving I mentioned the forward speed is it&#39;s it&#39;s not it&#39;s not slow so that is good news let&#39;s get this in and get this out now Trinidad we&#39;re going to do okay Tobago that&#39;s where we&#39;re going to see some tropical storm conditions we could have some gust 50 60 MPH uh 80 to 95 an hour today giving us some rain the worst of it does stay to the North and then eventually moving away but Tobago the wobble to the South that has helped us out in Barbados will bring us some of those tropical storm conditions now here&#39;s Jamaica this is on Wednesday on Wednesday this is my initial call for what&#39;s going to happen and why we need to take those uh preps it&#39;s going to be tricky um we are you know we are islands and all that stuff so uh just a small distance makes a big difference like we&#39;re seeing now with St Lucia Barbados Grenada on Wednesday Winds of 95 km an hour or 60 m per hour trop solid tropical storm conditions right so 60 m per hour winds at times on Wednesday in Jamaica 100 millimeters of rain or about 4 Ines of rain it could be higher than that though that&#39;ll be a concern but as of now I have the center of this being just to the South we&#39;ll see how that changes when I join you again but we&#39;re making the preparations because we&#39;re smart uh may as will uh definitely need to uh go ahead and uh do that so uh let&#39;s uh get a look at what we got going on here let me break down some forecast here and switch over uh let me jump here I&#39;m going to jump scoop back a little bit just to give you a heads up here here&#39;s Jamaica the next couple days uh we&#39;re taking some of those preps Wednesday that&#39;s the day we&#39;re watching let&#39;s jump over here Cayman Islands we&#39;re watching Wednesday into Thursday looks like most of the weather will be to the South but as you know especially our Mariners boaters uh we can&#39;t take many chances so we&#39;re doing what we need to do to uh be smart Trinidad and Tobago worst weather Tobago for today and then we&#39;ll watch out for that surge of moisture that second system trying to work into the Eastern Caribbean uh Barbados Barrel is moving away Wednesday though we&#39;ll see that rain and some gustier winds picking up we&#39;ll see if that area tries to turn into a tropical storm same thing in St Lucia worst weather just just to the south in St Lucia Grenada we&#39;ve covered this Grenada St Vincent of the Grenadines that&#39;s where barrel uh has decided to go that&#39;s where Barrel is working in Martinique we could see some of those squalls squalls are some of the rain bands kind of filtering in throughout the day same thing in Domin that at times could give us some tropical storm conditions same thing in guadaloop we may see some of that rain from barrel trying to break free and tun Barbuda by the middle of the week the rain chance will bump up right Northeastern Caribbean middle of the week rain chance will start to get higher same thing St kit andas and moerat rain chance a little higher later in the week Anguilla and St and you see on Wednesday up to a 50% chance St Martin saba and staia rain chance Puerto Rico about a 60% chance tomorrow as this passes to the South it&#39;ll enhance that easterly flow bump up the rain chance but a barrel itself the big part of it stays to the south of Puerto Rico and it stays to the south of my friends in the US and British Virgin Islands I know one map I didn&#39;t get to was the uh the wave heights but what I showed you yesterday does hold the wave height map does hold yesterday uh Bermuda rain chance about 40% or Bahamas rather about 40% scattered about for us in the Bahamas all of the action staying to the South Turks and cost about a 20% chance you see as we hit uh Tuesday a 70% chance of rain and storms across the Dr favoring our Southern Zone Southern zones and Haiti on Tuesday so that is tomorrow brushing by with some tropical storm conditions then we swing over here in B we&#39;re making the preparations for the potential of a tropical storm or hurricane moving in later this week but in the meantime time we do have some rain to speak up Aruba Kiran boner most of this has been missing us about a 20 to 30 even upwards of a 50% chance of rain by the time we get into the middle of the week little bump up in the rain chance midweek Guyana still a 60% chance still some pockets of flooding suram a 60% chance of some of the rain and as we work our way toward Cuba all of this uh stays to the South the big tropical weather to the South scattered rain and storms 50% chance in Cuba 60% chance Costa Rica and Panama and about a 50 % chance across Nicaragua keep an eye on what happens with Barrel Honduras All Eyes Of course are on Barrel to see how close it gets to see how strong it tries to stay we&#39;ll watch out for that weakening Trend Guatemala pockets of some rain and storms around Mexico City with what&#39;s left of Chris working in uh that brief tropical storm we&#39;re going to watch out for some flooding not just today but over the next couple days in the yucatana Mexico all eyes on Barrel to see how that hangs together and works across the Caribbean Colombia we about a 40% chance of scattered storms Northern Venezuela 40% chance and now Bermuda tomorrow and Wednesday about a 50% chance so again my friends in Grenada St vinent the grenades we are locked down all day for sure all of us are thinking of you we&#39;re going to be watching to the West near Jamaica Cayman Islands Biz uh Mexico Honduras and then this little second area in the Atlantic I am watching that I&#39;ll be watching that to see how that tries to spin up but there&#39;s going to be a lot of action this year already is so we&#39;ll just track it storm by storm and thank you for doing your part in just spreading the word about this information so I&#39;ll do my best to get to the comments throughout the day I know I skipped over that map on the um the wave heights but it is very comparable to almost exactly what I was showing you yesterday so that is the good news forecast as a whole has been on track that gives us time to prepare for things so thank you for being part of this weather community and I hope you have a good and in very safe uh rest of your day

Transcript for:Weather Update with Meteorologist Brian Shields

Transcript for:
Weather Update with Meteorologist Brian Shields