The meeting covered the concept, tools, and importance of strategic foresight for governments and businesses, especially in times of uncertainty and transformative change.
Historical examples such as Herman Kahn’s strategy work during the Cold War, President Reagan’s nuclear exercises, and Royal Dutch Shell’s scenario planning were discussed.
Emphasis was placed on the necessity of engaging with plausible futures to inform better present-day decisions.
No attendees, action items, or decisions were specified in the transcript.
Action Items
None recorded.
Introduction to Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight is presented as a method for thinking about the future amid rapid changes and global shocks, aiming to widen understanding of possible challenges rather than to predict exact outcomes.
It helps address complex issues, prepare for shocks, and clarify how trends intersect across different sectors.
Tools and Application of Foresight
Key tools discussed: scenario planning, horizon scanning, backcasting, wargaming, and the Delphi method.
Scenarios were highlighted as an early tool used by Herman Kahn at RAND for Cold War strategy, linking potential futures to policy choices.
Each foresight tool supports creative, non-traditional thinking for planning.
Historical and Contemporary Examples
President Reagan’s use of tabletop exercises in 1983 transformed his perspective on nuclear policy, ultimately leading to diplomatic engagement and the peaceful end of the Cold War.
Royal Dutch Shell’s foresight team used scenario planning through the 1970s and 80s, helping the company prepare for disruptive market events.
Today, businesses use foresight for risk resilience, innovation, and adapting to changing customer demands.
The Value of Foresight for Decision Making
Foresight is most valuable when decision-makers tangibly experience future consequences of current actions, leading to improved decisions.
It requires openness and engagement with plausible futures to be effective.
Strategic foresight is especially important for thinking through the impacts and risks of emerging technologies such as AI and automation.
Final Takeaways
Foresight is not about predicting one single future, but navigating uncertainty productively.
Ignoring the future or claiming absolute certainty are both mistakes; foresight provides a balanced approach to link present actions with future possibilities.
The future is actively shaped by today’s decisions, underscoring the need for strategic foresight.
Decisions
None recorded.
Open Questions / Follow-Ups
How can organizations maximize the benefits of emerging technologies while addressing their risks for governments, businesses, and citizens?
What concrete steps should be taken to incorporate strategic foresight into regular decision-making processes?