[Applause] what is strategic foresight in an era defined by transformative trends such as accelerating climate change disruptive innovation rising geopolitical competition and more frequent global shocks like pandemics strategic foresight is a tool that enables us to think more comprehensively about the future strategic foresight does not attempt to predict the future rather it empowers us to reframe the universe of plausible future challenges in doing so it helps us tackle complex challenges prepare for potential shocks and understand the intersection of trends across issue areas the future is in many ways uncertain strategic foresight gives us the tools to navigate that uncertainty so what are the tools of strategic foresight and how are they employed for governments foresight can link possible futures to policy options available now this is how herman khan first envisioned it during his time as a military strategist and systems theorist at the rand corporation in the 1950s during the height of the cold war khan developed scenarios plausible versions of the future that help the us government evaluate ways to engage the soviet union scenarios like these are some of the most popular tools of strategic foresight though not the only ones other tools include horizon scanning back casting wargaming and the delphi method each of these tools is distinct in how it's employed but all are designed to inspire creativity and non-traditional thinking [Music] in 1983 president reagan's advisors used a tabletop exercise to simulate what nuclear war might look like through this exercise the president was able to visualize the potentially catastrophic impact of such a conflict transforming his perspective on u.s nuclear posture strategic foresight allowed him to envision a different path forward full of vigorous diplomatic engagement and democracy promotion this decision ultimately led to a peaceful end to the cold war [Music] governments aren't the only ones deploying the tools of strategic foresight in the mid-1960s royal dutch shell created a team to study the future using scenarios as the energy sector reeled from events like the energy crisis of the early 1970s the collapse of the oil market in 1986 and the fall of the soviet union a few years later shell's in-house foresight team showed that shocks like these were both plausible and potentially disruptive while the team didn't predict the exact events it did present them as possibilities that executives should and did prepare for today businesses use foresight all the time to build resilience to market shocks to adapt to evolving customer demands and to drive innovation like it did for soviet era war planners and shells executives strategic foresight allows us to explore different versions of the future and identify critical decision points along the way it has shown that decision makers who tangibly and emotionally experience the future consequences of their actions today make better decisions about tomorrow this is the very heart of strategic foresight its ability to link plausible futures with our present actions it can empower us it can spark our imagination and it can provide structure amid uncertainty but this only works if we're willing to listen and engage with the future that lies ahead for example we often treat emerging technologies like facial recognition ai and automation as if they're science fiction and not already increasingly part of our everyday lives how can we realize the benefits of these technologies while also staving off the very real dangers that come with such technologies what are their various consequences of their adoption for governments businesses and citizens these are the kinds of questions that require an answer today because the future is already being shaped through our actions and policies of the present while we cannot always predict what emerging technology will mean for the future of governance or for the future of our workforce foresight helps us dedicate the time and resources for us to think about how to respond to what lies ahead there are two ways to get the future wrong to not consider it or willfully ignore it and to profess an ability to predict it with absolute certainty strategic foresight allows for a productive middle path connecting our present and future selves so that we become active participants in creating the future we want to see in the words of famed computer scientist alan kaye the best way to predict the future is to invent it the future we live in is not separate from the here and now it's unfolding right in front of us continually being shaped by our actions today in order to break the cycle of reactivity and shape our own future we need foresight [Music] you