USD/CAD Trade Analysis and Strategies

Aug 1, 2024

Lecture Notes: Top Down Analysis on USD/CAD Trade

Introduction

  • Focus on funded prop firms and trading challenges.
  • Breakdown of USD/CAD trade analysis from Discord group.
  • Private mentorship episode focused on aligning with institutional order flow and day trading intricacies.

Trade Ideas Presented

  • Three trade ideas called in Discord group:
    • Trade 1: Low expansion call.
    • Trade 2: Another call during live stream.
    • Trade 3: Third call confirmed in live stream.

Key Concepts

Offset Accumulation and Reaccumulation

  • Offset Accumulation:
    • Stop run below market to drive price higher; buying stops above market.
    • Look for accumulation of sell stops for anticipated higher prices.
  • Reaccumulation:
    • Impulse swing that follows offset accumulation.
    • Establish positioning from higher to lower time frames.

Bearish Scenario: Offset Distribution and Redistribution

  • Offset Distribution:
    • Stop run above market to sell off, targeting sell stops below market.
  • Redistribution:
    • Impulse price swing after offset distribution.
    • Positioning from higher to lower time frames to confirm bearish order flow.

Order Flow Sequence

  • Confirming buy or sell programs based on higher time frames:
    • Buy Program: Monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour bullish.
    • Sell Program: Monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour bearish.
    • Anything below 4-hour is considered an execution time frame.

USD/CAD Chart Analysis

  • Higher Time Frame: Monthly chart showing offset accumulation below a significant low.
  • Daily Chart:
    • Discount low identified; valid order block in discount.
    • Reaccumulation phase identified where price trades higher.

Day Trading Strategy

  • Count back 20 days from the trade day to determine high/low range for premium/discount.
  • Focus on buying in discount or at equilibrium to locate bullish PDAs.
  • Target previous day highs within the last 20 days as liquidity draw.

Execution of Trade

  • Longs called on USD/CAD based on daily analysis and structure formation.
    • Offset accumulation, impulse price swing, and retracement identified.

Conclusion

  • Key levels identified for potential longs on USD/CAD through institutional analysis and understanding of order flow.
  • Importance of recognizing offsets, liquidity draws, and reaccumulation phases in trading strategy.