The West's relations with Russia reached a new low [in] the post-soviet, Era Following Russia's incursion into ukraine after annexing Crimea Russia supported separatist movements driving instability in the region from the collapse of the iron curtain [to] [the] so-called Russian reset to today's Russia ukraine crisis the post-soviet, Era has witnessed a number of ups and [downs] in relations between Russia and the West What are russia's goals and strategies in its immediate [neighbourhood]? What is it looking to get out of taking an increasingly aggressive stance against the [West's] fear of influence Russia's foreign policy next on great decisions The us has been [weary] of the uSSR since the union of soviet Socialist republics was founded in 1917 The Communist doctrine of one-Party Rule and state control of the economy seemed to threaten the democracy and freemarkets championed by the West when the communists came to power in 1917 1918 the first cold War began For 15 years [the] American government did not recognize the soviet government What could be colder [and] not inviting your neighbor [over] for Dead? Communism was a radically new departure when the bolsheviks took over in 1917 they announced that they were going [to] Destroy the capitalists as a class They invited people to steal what was stolen. They? expropriated property They carried out mass executions [and] the spectacle of what they were doing united the world against them Moscow in an attempt [to] create the buffer from German aggression launched a policy of territorial expansion invading countries in Eastern Europe Despite [a] high level of distrust with Stalin's regime the us and usSr worked together to defeat Nazi Germany But that alliance was short-lived from stettin in the Baltic to trieste in the adriatic An iron curtain has descended across the continent The world was soon largely divided into two spheres of influence The iron curtain essentially was the soviet union in countries that were in the Warsaw pact Where the soviet Union after the yalta agreement and the Potsdam agreement? Took over countries in East Central Europe and had them under the soviet sphere through the Warsaw pact a military alliance The nato Alliance was the counter to that and so what we had were essentially two military organizations that were facing off against each other When both sides developed nuclear weapons at the end of World War two an arms race ensued and the cold war was on They were in some ways fascinated by the idea that they had in a whatever way they could militarily to contend with the United States in 1991 the [soviet] Union Collapsed largely a result of economic stagnation brought on by the Nuclear arms Race [the] uSSr split into 15 Independent Republics Victory has a thousand fathers much of what in the simplest of all possible terms brought Russia down Were several aspects of trying to manage the economy the communist system was Ineffective and inefficient at managing an economy well the soviet union collapsed under a lot of internal pressures and these were Political economic and ethnic politically you had a system that was Increasingly rigid was out of touch with a population starting in late 1980s and then culminating in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin wall [the] Warsaw pact fell apart and The soviet Union was not going to be far behind Very quickly within a year and a half communism was out yeltsin was in power in the 1990s Russia went through some turbulent years as leaders tried to convert the economy from the state control of the communist Era to free-Market principles The Yeltsin leadership with the assistance of quite a few people from the United states the world bank the [international] monetary fund [the] Treasury Department they enacted. What was called. Maybe not fairly, but they themselves called this shock therapy a strobe Talbott who then was President Clinton's number One Russia Guide said the problem was there was too much shock and not enough therapy instead of moving towards a kind of democratic Capitalist system like you have in Most western Countries when russia threw off the communist system instead they ended up with this kind of unregulated Oligarchy capitalism nearly a decade after the soviet Union fell vladimir putin Rose to power He's a former mid-ranking KGB officer who served in east Germany during the cold war and then went to work in the office of the Mayor of St. Petersburg in the early 1990s putin came into office in 2000 elected as president there was a sense that russia was [going] to restore its position He never lost sight of what I think are still his conclusions at the Russian public wants stability and security Putin shot to prominence in the 90s for his suppression of the war in the Breakaway [republic] of Chechnya He soon oversaw a rebound in the russian economy based largely on a surge [in] the oil and gas [sector] more than [50%] of Russia's state budget comes from energy revenues And the whole economy is very very dependent on energy and especially on the oil Oil [prices] jumping from $10 to 20 and 30 40 innovation 200 that was quite a boost [and] putin benefited from that there's not much credit to be given to him. He simply you know didn't didn't kill the Hand was gold [legs] so I think putin is probably the most misunderstood Senior world leader in the world maybe in Modern History that's a record so destroying Their Feeble but still democratic institutions in Russia and basically turning it in one-man dictatorship. That's what is what is to be misunderstood But that resurgence came with a price putin cracked down on political rivals This criminal is a police state they arrest people everywhere because listen gaps [human-rights], I think from Putin's you was some form of a bump on the road because he had to play by the rules Up to a certain moment to remain the part of this global arrangement the state-controlled television basically all [but] two stations which are very very small are either outright controlled by the Kremlin or Controlled by oligarchs who are kremlin proxies we have seen the worst Crackdown? Against Human rights in Russia since the breakup of the soviet Union for putin it's inconceivable that russians would rise up in protest against his rule he thought they were fermented from the outside he went after critics and bloggers and political activists Growing nationalism and Nostalgia for superpower status is also cause for concern the first reaction of Patriots when your nation suffers Is to become nationalistic putin is said to have brought it to the fore in a way it hadn't been in recent years There was a very much a sense of hurt russian pride from the 1990s when Russia was severely weakened both economically and geopolitically the memories of those of that ten years came back with a vengeance in 2008 War broke out between Russia and Georgia There are questions and discussions and debates about who started the war but there's no doubt that russia crossed into Georgian territory and now essentially occupies these two disputed regions within days Russian Tanks were within striking distance of the Georgian Capital TBIlisi and It showed [that] russia was still very strong a strong military power, but [only] in relation to Georgia Remember in 2008 which tried to fast-track ukraine and Georgia in the nato and Merkel the chancellor of Germany vetoed it So this is not like I'm making this and the russians aren't stupid they watched Putin's Behavior in Ukrainian Crisis has been almost entirely reactive reacting to Unwise Western policy that five-day war foreshadowed Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 Ukrainian exploding into really violent demonstrations that had originally been Peaceful in Kiev just devolving into bloodshed Moscow saw this as an american-backed coup Against its ally and was democratically elected vladimir putin took advantage of the Chaos to Seize Back Crimea They see ukraine as part of their sphere of influence they see them moving to the West And they're putting their foot down. They also have specific sort of national security interests. They have the naval base in Crimea This is his one opening to a warm water port which has been for hundreds of years in obsession for Moscow He didn't want the fleet to be based on Something [that] could eventually be nato territory successes in Georgia and Crimea may have emboldened Moscow Crimea was so successful, so Easy in [bloodless] fortunately that he decided to try his [luck] in The east of ukraine the ukrainians decided to draw a line they decided to fight What we're seeing in Danielle's Candle [hans], we're seeing Russian Forces roll up to the border then they're ordered to change out of their uniforms and are handed various different fatigue because that don't match [they're] given various weaponry And they're sent across the border with little white ties around their limbs So that they can see who's who to make it look like they're not officially there with the russian army Underlying the rationale [for] that intervention was always the fear [that] political change in these countries was going to lead [to] them moving closer to the west and ultimately joining up with nato the enlargement of nato as well as the enlargement of European Union are in the interest of Russia as well I Know that russia has tried to spread the myth [that] they were promised many years ago that [nato] and Eu wouldn't enlarge Eastwards such a promise has never ever been given policy teams resist key [figures] see Vladimir vladimirovich putin our western [partners] Led by the United States of America [Praetorian] practice not [to] be guided by international law but by the power of the gun They have come to believe in their exclusivity and exceptionalism and that they can decide the destiny of the world We're on top of breaking news of [a] MalaySia Airlines plane load Position was over ukraine. Did you know this was flight 17 295 people on board it is a great tragedy Suddenly the Conflict was internationalized in july 2014 [a] Malaysian Airlines passenger Jet [was] shot down over the donetsk region of ukraine the reaction to the shoot down I think was arguably even more important the tragedy that happened to [those] 298 people on Board [it] was how the russian supported forces and putin himself Reacted to the Shoot-down [Union] [Pradesh] [Luba] I would like to note that the strategy would not have a cure if there were peace in that country or in any case if Hostilities had not resumed in South east ukraine and certainly the government is responsible for this terrible tragedy It's very Abundantly clear that the Russians have been Directly supporting not just with arms with actual advisors and troops the separatists on the ground in Southeast ukraine That's the reason why their military fortunes changed, so abruptly after several months of ukrainian offensive, and it's also the reason why Mh17 was shot down in response the us and Europe tightened sanctions on Russian We're freezing the assets of several Russia defense companies And we are blocking new financing of some of Russia's most important banks and energy companies But the sanctions don't prevent russia from selling oil or gas to western partners which would likely hit the russian economy hardest So Germany has been [a] very good example in demonstrating those dynamics of an oil and gas dependency and reluctance to Act against Russia about two-thirds of Russia's federal budget comes from these Energy Exports, so if it were to turn off the tap it would be almost completely cutting off its own lifeblood sanctions are not an effective [response] to this Sort of challenge They entrench differences. They don't bridge them. They create vested interests in adversary relationship they distort markets they therefore create people with an interest in their continuation Some observers say Putin's aggression is an attempt to shore up support at home So russia it has for a long long time dealt at as in centuries dealt with its domestic problems by finding a foreign enemy and russia has huge domestic troubles at the moment Russia has been in decline and They've lost a lot of influence. They don't have many useful allies around the world President [Putin] has a big master [plan] To [re-establish] a shown of Russian influence in the near [neighborhood] actually covering the old Soviet space Russia is interested in open or frozen conflicts in this near neighborhood And this is a reason why my assessment is that this conflict scenario will last for decades? Much of what we're seeing now on the part of Mr.. Putin is to take advantage of the penchant among Russians for stability and for strong national feelings [as] a way of continuing to maintain himself in power, so I The Economy is not doing well massive capital flight, and now finally you have putin saying you know that's it no more Russia has taken a stand in Syria as well We haven't had Russian cooperation on Syria since the civil war in Syria broke out in 2011 Russia has been arming aiding and abetting Bashar al-Assad's slaughter of the syrian people They send arms to the syrian regime they have a base off the coast in Syria They block resolutions in the un Security Council The use [Alita] or the danger of it to be used has repeatedly safeguarded the un the whole united nations against Doubtful undertakings the Russians have a constant fear that the us Wants to implement regime change in Russia, too So whenever it's going after Saddam Hussein or Bashar al-assad or Hosni Mubarak or Muammar qaddafi. It's Gonna Go after vladimir putin next Russia also supports Iran maintaining Moscow's influence in the region the russians have no interest in a nuclear deal getting Concluded at this point between the United States and Iran they had been relatively constructive over the past years I think they're gonna become less So they're talking about how to bust the sanctions in what may be an indicator for the future? Russia signed a four hundred billion dollar deal to provide energy to China for the next 30 years in the middle of 2014 Russia and China signed a deal to develop a series of new Oil and gas fields in the russian far east and to build a pipeline that would bring a gas from Russia to China [this] is clearly an indication that the russian government believes that [they] need to shift strategically and [long] term Towards China they will not be able to rebuild Their relations with the us or [even] the Europeans to where it was before this crisis but there are many areas where [the] us and Russia share the same goals Europe and America were able to Especially America were able to accomplish a lot of things when they were on a good footing with Russia Nuclear armaments reductions a nato transit point on Russian territory to get us troops and Materiel to Afghanistan all kinds of cooperative measures. We do not want Russia as a whole to Divorce itself from the global order to become some kind of autarky that means Tremendous misery for Ordinary Russians and [long-term] is Destabilizing, so we do want to keep russia part of the world order But we have to understand this russian government is trying to break the rules and change the rules But russia has its own grievances Against the West [I] think this is clearly a move by president putin to say we've had since the end of the cold war decades of you know kind of nato moving further closer to our border and we're putting our foot down now and reasserting ourselves this really fed into the sense of resentment that russia's security concerns were not being taken into consideration that the was still engaged in a process of trying to weaken contain and ultimately Rollback Russian power this started with the toppling of Muammar [Qaddafi] [and] Libya where the russians abstained and didn't vote in the un Security Council when it authorized the Bombing of Libya and then felt that the Americans and nato had betrayed them putin made a well remembered speech In 2007 at the Munich security conference we accused the united states of throwing its weight around that regards What anybody else in the world cared? [perish] analyst Leila [Tonelli] one state the United States overstepped Its national borders in every way in economics in politics in humanitarian all imposed by one state who would like that He withdrew [bush] [to] America from the anti-ballistic missile treaty agreement Which was the Bedrock of Russia's concept of its national security? Which meant America could now start building so-called missile defenses anywhere wanted right on Russia's border? The Russian suspicions about the nato missile defense is not justified the design of our missile Defense System doesn't make it horrible to threaten russia on the mind their strategic capabilities Washington knows it's Russia's continued integration with the International community That allows the u.s. To Exert pressure on its actions When Russia is standoffish and then when the u.s. Is standoffish in return and you know they become super polarized and not really talking to our trusting each other? It's really hard to get anything done. You know it's not that the united States has actively tried to undermine Russia we haven't the point is we don't particularly care much and we've acted like we don't particularly care much and when the opportunity has presented itself to move in favor of our interests and Be indifferent to how it affects the russians. We're in different because we're America [long-term]. We need to be playing for Reintegrating the russian people in the world and helping them get the same rights and privileges and prosperity that other western Nations and Joy and they have every reason [to] be able to enjoy everybody has a great deal [to] [gain] by not making ukraine a cockpit of contention and war Washington is calling for greater European energy independence from Russia No matter how much infrastructure, they build they won't be able to significantly Hedge away from that until minimum 2017. It's getting colder and as it is that's when the gas starts flowing or not That's when the leverage grows Putin's message to two Russian elite you know comes directly from game of thrones winter [is] coming. It is [a] wake-up call and Hopefully, you will see a change in energy policies in those countries they will look for diversification of their energy resources and relax some of their domestic policies sanctions and loan guarantees Have yet to significantly impact the conflict in ukraine Unfortunately [there] isn't all that much that the u.s.. Can do to stop Russia's adventure in ukraine more than it's already doing Let's not forget. They've got thousands of Nuclear weapons. So there's not much other former pressure We're certainly not going to intervene militarily and get into a fight Number one is Will West Europe and the United States be able to sustain the pressure on Putin's regime by keeping these sanctions or even imposing new sanctions if putin keeps advancing in Ukrainian Territory, [I] Think the ability [for] the United States and russia [to] collaborate to cooperate to get along is Very limited as as long as the putin regime continues down the authoritarian path that it's been on The ability of the United States and russia to to partner will be extremely limited the next us administration is going to be fairly Hardline on Russia issues regardless of which party it's from And I think [in] Russia You know you're [gonna] continue to see this emphasis on pushing back against the west and on asserting Russia's place as a separate Entity as a kind of [pole] of its own in this multipolar global order the conflict in [Ukraine] will color US-Russian relations for years to come Washington's continued response will have to be carefully calibrated to find common ground between the former superpower Rivals Great decisions is produced by the foreign policy association in association with Thomson reuters Funding for great [decisions] is provided by price Waterhouse Coopers llp you you