Transcript for:
Avoid Overvalued Fantasy Football Players

it's that time of the summer you know girls have their time of the month we have our time of the summer and that is to talk about your idiot League mates today we are going over six players that you need to let your idiot League mates draft in fantasy football this year and I can't think of a better player to start off with than the same player we started this series off with during draft season during Dynasty season during rookie season and it is none other than Xavier worthy of the Kansas City Chiefs your idiot League mates are going to draft him because the man ran the fastest 40 yard time ever recorded at the combine with a 421 that is predictable for Fantasy Football right let's take a look at the fastest 40 yard dash times by wide receivers ever it's Xavier worthy then it's John Ross Rond Del Manz uh it's probably an apostrophe somewhere in there uh Jerome Mattis Maris Goodwin and Henry rugs has Predictive Analytics uh here's what's going to happen throughout the summer and it's already starting to happen which is why I feel even better about putting Xavier worthy at the top of this list because his ADP is continuing to soar up draft boards your league mates are going to continue to see Clips on Twitter of Xavier worthy catching deep balls from Patrick Mahomes at OTAs and at training camp of course someone who runs a 4240 yard dash is going to look tremendous in shorts without pads he is a Gym Class Hero that is what happens but do not forget Xavier Worthy is 165 pounds three years ago we wouldn't even be having this conversation three years ago we were debating whether or not Devonte Smith it could be be possible that he could be good at football because of his size Damonte Smith is both heavier and taller than Xavier Worthy is Xavier worthy gets Ragdoll at the line of scrimmage his success rate versus press coverage is it's brutal okay and when we start to look at the rest of the chief's offense they bring in Hollywood Brown this offseason right and Hollywood Brown is a more well-rounded more seasoned version of what Xavier Worthy is right now they bring back Miko Hardman I don't want to be annoying but like mik Hardman is annoying all right and he's he's going to be annoying in fantasy football sometimes they have Travis Kelce obviously he's coming off of a Down year but even in a down year he was the tight end one in fantasy points per game at the position okay uh Rashi rice I don't know what's going on with him apparently he is ripping up camp right now um and I've heard anywhere from like he's going to get eight game suspension this season to the complete suspension is going to be pushed off until next year if you have those three guys on the field if you have Hollywood if you have Kelce if you have Rashi rice Xavier worthy becomes the fifth offensive weapon on this team okay behind Pacho like he's going to make highlight plays once every three games and wind up with like 600 650 yards as a rookie which is why I love this line right now on Underdog they have him at 8.5 receiving yards I literally think that is free money I think that is money that's going straight into your bank account the day that the regular season ends so if you want to go make some money go over to Underdog fantasy right now download the app use promo code bdge when you do so and they're going to give you a bunch of bonus deposit money on there and they're also going to give you an actual free square of 0.5 yards by I believe Patrick Mahomes when you get on there so as long as he throws one single yard in week one you win you could pair it with the lower on Xavier worthy receiving yards listen Xavier worthy might end up being a good player at the NFL uh level right he has Andy Reid who's going to use a lot of pre- snap motion and and use him in creative ways statistically he's not going to get there as a rookie okay so let the Highlight the Highlight Clips continue to pour out from training camp as he's playing in shorts without pads and no one's pressing him at the line of scrimmage let those continue to boost up his ADP let someone else in your league draft him let's move to the second player on this list let's get let's get a little spicier here okay you know this list I could just simply list off bad players for you I can list off a bunch of players that no one was really going to draft anyways but sometimes we got to take our stand sometimes we've got to go against players that have huge quad muscles I don't know why we have to do it but I'm doing it and it's saquon Barkley okay he goes over to Philly and on most regular sites you know the ESPN's the yahoos those types of sites where they're not like wide receiver crazy on Underdog saquon's a second round pick but on the other sites saquin is pretty objectively a top 10 pick this year in fantasy football and I'm here to tell you to let your idiot League mates draft saquon Barkley in the first round he moves over to Philly which on paper it's a million times better of a situation for a running back okay someone in your league is going to put two and two together and just say of course he's a great pick right the math just it maths I would argue at this point in his career saquon bar Barkley uh I'm gonna argue this from a few different angles but one of the first things that pops out to me when I watch him I just don't think he's the same player he was when he came into the league and I put together some numbers for you you'll see all the way on the right there his rookie season just yards after contact per attempt broken tackles plus Miss tackles Force per attempt just his overall elusiveness grade and his 40 plus yard rushing touchdowns right I tried to find numbers that were kind of exclusive to his play and not so much as offensive line play because obviously the the huge gap here is the Giants offense and their offensive line stinks Philly's offense and Philly's offensive line does not stink but these are numbers for the most part that are like running back exclusive if you were good by yourself you could just see like his grades his rates everything is just significantly higher when he came in the league as a rookie I don't think he's as elusive I don't think he's as explosive I don't think he's as powerful anymore and that stuff starts to add up that start starts to happen after you area ACL and you suffer these high ankle sprains like the scar tissues start to pile on and when you're 27 going to be 28 at the end of this year like those things eventually add up and you lose a little bit of the explosiveness and then you know when you look at Philly I love their offense I love their passing offense specifically this year they do lose Jason Kelce who has been you know the best uh Center one of the best centers of all time and that's going to hurt their Run game for sure uh they also have not had like when you look at Jaylen Herz the the other two glaring holes as it relates to saquon bar and fantasy are touchdowns on the goal line and then pass catching work right like Jaylen Herz is a mobile quarterback these athletic quarterbacks tend to take off and run rather than trying to dump it off to the players around them that's just the type of athletic build they have under Herz he's been a starter for three years they have not had a running back catch 40 passes no running back has hit 40 receptions under Jaylen Herz all right and there's also no guarantee like Kenny gainwell has been the permanent two and four-minute drill back in Philadelphia since he has come into the league so while Kenny gell is not good he's not a better Runner he's not more explosive he's not really better at anything he's a great pass catcher he actually but saquon is obviously Elite in that they use Kenny gainwell in those situations because he's small he's able to squeak out he's able to catch those like quick little hitters and and and you know uh wiggle a little bit for some extra yards so Kenny gell has been the two and four minute drill back that being said they gave saquon a lot of money so like maybe he takes that role but H they're going to have to use a breather back every now and then this would be the time to do it because they've clearly shown that Kenny G has been a part of this particular part of their offense which is where a lot of targets happen and a lot of pass catching happens and a lot of fantasy points happen in a very small window of time on the goal line the obvious thing here is the tush push uh some people think it might be going away because Jason Kel's not there anymore I was listening to establish the runs podcast this morning of uh 14 offensive line moves that you need to know about and they talked about Jason Kelce retiring and Evan Silva texted someone in the Eagles organization or someone someone in the NFL that like knows the Eagles organization very well and asked about the tush push and the guy was like there's no way it's going away he said uh there's they they're practicing it they're they're not moving off of the tush push whatsoever so if there's any concerns about it uh we have the NFL people the inside sources saying that it is not going anywhere and when you look at just the sheer amount of volume that Jaylen Herz gets on the goal line it's like they have had 96 goal line carries since he has been the starter in 2021 he has had 48 of them he has ex he's had exactly 50% of the goal line carries in Philadelphia okay those numbers have you know that's even skewed towards a lower number back in 2021 22 and 23 they've gone up and up and up that means the other 50% are split amongst other running backs not just one running back getting all of them but like Boston Scott gets got got some Kenny gamewell got some they drafted will Shipley like if saquon's not getting 100% of the running back goal line carries and he's he's getting a a relatively low volume of goal line carries to begin with so all this to say I have a lot of concerns with saquon him as the player the situation I think is a little bit worse for fantasy running backs on paper all these concerns are for his ceiling not his floor okay I think he'll be a fine pick like he'll be a fine fantasy player I don't see him finishing outside of like the top you know 13 14 running backs probably even like 12 it'll probably be a low-end rb1 but if you're drafting him with like the 10th overall pick in your draft I think you're going to be really disappointed because you are looking for dudes with crazy ceilings and I get that it's easy to just say that it's like saquan Philadelphia of course big ceiling I think when you really start to look at the actual situation it starts to bring you back down to earth a little bit here's another player I want to bring back down to earth and I've talked about him quite a bit because the narrative is extremely strong this offseason it's Justin Herbert the quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers now most of the people have started to really come around to the fact that he should be getting drafted later and later in fantasy drafts and in like home leagues he's the quarterback 134 there are still a ton of guys that are going after him the Trevor Lawrence's even like the Matt staffords that I would take in a pass heavy offense over Justin Herbert because if you're new and you're tuning back into football content right now just Herbert and the Chargers big shift this off season they bring in Harbaugh from Michigan they bring in Greg Roman both dudes who want to play defense both both dudes who want to run the ball a [ __ ] ton they let go of Kanan Allen Mike Williams Austin Eckler Gerald Everett in favor of you know bringing back C Mack and Joey Bosa they are they are taking one step back to take two steps forward in the future but I don't want to be investing into the into the part of the offense that's taking the one step back right now okay they have no real pass catching weapons on the outside I like Josh I think he's a great value but he's not going to be a needle mover for Justin Herbert their biggest free agent move was bringing in will dley because their tight ends were so bad at blocking in the Run game last year they had the number five overall pick in the NFL draft this year instead of taking a Malik neighbors or Rome to pair with Justin Herbert they took Joe Al who is a run blocking Dynamo and Herbert I know everybody loves to just say how he's like an elite quarterback and like his traits are unrivaled by other players here's the thing he is now had back-to-back finishes in fantasy points per game outside of the top 12 quarterbacks he has not been a points per game QB inside the top 12 for Fantasy in each of the last two years and as far as statistical ceiling is concerned his situation got drastically worse going into 2024 because this offense is clearly going to be a lot more run heavy and they lost all of the weapons that he has gained chemistry with over the last 3 four years of being an NFL QB so while Herbert his his draft spot to me is not a value where his ADP is it's just simply correct and a lot of people will just see the name and be like it's Justin Herbert of course he's gonna [ __ ] throw up numbers I just don't think he is on Underdog right now his passing line is 3600 yards this is a dude who a few years ago threw for over 5,000 if Vegas is telling you that that's what this situation is going to be maybe you should fuing listen okay and if you want to listen to more of the takes that we have here if you want to get all of our rankings if you want to get all of our complete fade list we'll be doing a lot more videos like this throughout uh the summer on YouTube so make sure you're subscribed but we also have our draft guide launching I think about a week from today on August 1st and the least expensive way to get it is by going on Underdog fantasy.com or downloading the app using as I've already said promo code BGE not only are you going to get these beautiful lines not only are you going to get a free square of 0. five passing yards for Patrick Mahomes in week one but you're getting our draft guide absolutely free when you deposit $10 or more all right so they've got this entire value bucket of all these things that you're getting but most importantly you'll get the bdg draft guide absolutely free if it is your first time depositing if you've already been on Underdog or if you're in a state that does not allow it you can get the draft guide right now for a discounted price on bdge doco until August 1st then it will be full price but up until then discounted pre-order price bdge doco least expensive way Underdog fantasy.com the least expensive way to draft a good team in fantasy football this year is by not taking Sam leaport in the second Andor third round okay where he is going in drafts is [ __ ] crazy right now and I get it he's coming off of a fing crazy rookie season Dynamite catching passes catching touchdowns doing it all for the Detroit Lions early second round pick came right into his own you never really see it from a rookie from a a rookie tight end my problem with Sam leaport is there is just no reason that he should be going a round ahead of Travis Kelce a round and a half two rounds ahead of Trey McBride and Dalton Kade and Mark Andrews I feel if you asked me my confidence level that he is going to finish with more fantasy points than Travis Kelce I would I I don't have I have zero confidence in that I have I personally again if you want my rankings they're in the draft guide I will have Trey McBride as my number one tight end in fantasy football this upcoming season if you look at his numbers over the second half of last year once he once Zack ZZ got hurt in week seven and didn't play again Trey McBride took over and his point per game number would have been tight end one in fantasy football last year okay I don't have conf I don't have a two round discount confidence level that Sam lorta is that much better than Trey McBride or Mark Andrews or Dalton concade like there is just no chance that I'm taking Sam lorta at his current ADP on ESPN he is the 24th player off the board which is at the end of the second round in ffpc leagues where that is tight end premium he is the 15th player off the board in best ball 10 which is also another paid League he's the 24th player off the board NFL and Yahoo have him 26th overall which is the 302 in 12-man leagues all right so we're talking premium premium draft capital and you could legit legitimately get Trey McBride two two and a half rounds later and I'm just not doing it that is just crazy to me Sam lorta will be Good Sam lorta might even be great but he's not great enough to Warrant the the Gap in where you have to draft him relative to all the other great options at tight end player number five on the list is Calvin Ridley the wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans and I wasn't really sure how how I thought about Calvin ridy how I thought about this this passing offense overall until I started doing a lot more deep work and and research for the draft guide where we have you know little player blurbs available for every single player that's fantasy relevant and as I'm doing research for Tennessee the situation this year is this right they get rid of Rael they get rid of Derrick Henry they bring in Brian Callahan Brian Callahan was the OC for Cincinnati he is now their head coach and and Cincinnati ran very very high rates of three wide receiver sets where Tennessee almost never ran them last year so the offensive philosophy is going to be way different now my problem with where Calvin Ridley is going is he's a fifth round pick right now he is getting picked a full round if not round and a half before DeAndre Hopkins DeAndre Hopkins has a full year of chemistry with Will Levis already so again I don't feel confident that Calvin really is gonna come in there come in there and demand more targets than DeAndre Hopkins is the other thing to like underratedly note here is Brian Kahan former OC for Cincinnati also went out and one of their first free agent signings was Tyler Boyd the slot wide receiver the underrated slot wide receiver of the last half decade for Cincinnati is now the starting slot wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans he's not going to be the wide receiver one or two here but he will quietly vacuum up you know 7075 maybe a little bit more than that number of targets and that's going to be a problem for everyone in this passing game not to mention that they have all these weapons to throw to on top of two you know above average at worst pass catching running backs Taj Spears and Tony Pard so uh I like the idea of this being an uptempo a spread offense a lot of weapons we have no idea how how if Will Levis is going to be any good he had that huge game which kind of like anchored in our mind about him and his ceiling on a week- toe basis but most metrics from last year with Will Levis under Center have been bad so if he just right right there I think you start with that Outlook is saying will Levis 50% chance he's good 50% chance he is bad so right now you're kind of like already investing into a receiving group that you have a coin flip of whether or not their quarterback is good if he's bad then everybody in this offense is going to likely end up being a bad pick in terms of pass catching stuff okay so I think you start there and then you start to look at the other red flags with de hop already being there and Tyler Boyd being there and these pass catching running back so like I think there's just a lot of lot going on there right it's like trying to predict the Seahawks receiving group it's like trying to predict any of these packed out offensive groups with any sort of confidence and I can't do that so I am not trying to predict one guy to get picked two three rounds ahead of the other guy that I feel like might have just as good of a chance as being the wide receiver one there and the last player up on this list to round it out and again if you've enjoyed the video so far let me know if you want me to continue doing videos like this I had a an idea or a thought for a series where what I wanted to do because we reference Underdog fantasy a lot and I know a lot of you guys uh play on there but a lot of you guys do your home Leagues with people that Draft on ESPN Yahoo CBS Etc and the adps are very different so sometimes we'll be talking about this guy as a fourth round pick but he's like a seventh round pick on ESPN so what I wanted to do was a series going round by round or position by position talking about the widest gaps in paid formats or paid uh platforms versus the home League platforms and basically signifying like guys that you're going to have to jump over your league mates for or guys that you can wait on and just kind of let your league mates draft based on like ADP from Paid leagues because the paid League adps are a lot sharper the paid League adps are there because people are staying on top of all the news all offseason whether it's injuries depth charts all that kind of stuff so uh in my opinion the single best way to prepare for your drafts is by doing baseball drafts on Underdog fantasy and again if you download deposit with 10 bucks promo code bdge they're going to hit you with a bunch of deposit matches on top of that though okay so I want to do that series let me know if you guys would be interested in that I know a lot of my audience also drafts on those like lesser sharp platforms and I think there's a lot of ADP to take advantage of one of the guys being Nick chub and letting your idiot League mates draft Nick chub because he's Nick chub and Nick chub is his name and we love Nick chub and he's a great player and he has been a great player but he will no longer be a great player for the Cleveland Browns or for your fantasy team because he is coming back from a tear of his knee that was uh a monstrosity it was not just the AC it was not a clean tear it was multi- ligaments which what that means right I'm only technically a doctor but what that means is whatever the timetable is you push it back significantly because they need to let the swelling go down of ligament number one in order to get in there repair it let it recover then go in for the ACL tear so having multiple ligaments means a much longer timetable and a much longer recovery timetable as well so Nick chub is also he's old he's 29 years old this is his second major multi- ligament knee injury dating back to 2015 when he was at Georgia so being this old having that type of uh ligament tear is a problem for Nick chub and it's going to be a problem for his recovery and I would be shocked if he is relevant whatsoever in fantasy over the first half of the season and it would not surprise me if he just does not become relevant really at any point uh in the fantasy season next year so the injury I don't care that he is squatting you know a [ __ ] ton of weight it's pretty cool uh it's pretty it is actually you know kind of [ __ ] sick but doesn't matter these tears the reason that they are detrimental is because you can't shift from side to side the tear of the ACL is a problem for running backs because they don't have the explosive lateral agility just going up and down is not going to be a problem Nick chub's eventually going to start jogging on the field and running on the field everyone's be like he's back baby no ACL tears don't kill you they don't paralyze you okay they just zap your lateral agility side to side so this is going to be a big problem for Nick chub do not draft him based off the name value I would just stay away altogether injury optimism is the key killer of most fantasy football drafters okay these six players will be the key Killers for your fantasy team this year six players to let your idiot lead mates draft let me know who you've got down below who are some dudes that you are staying away from like Thy plague that's all I got for you today make sure subscribed for more videos like this and make sure you go check out the draft guide bdge doco discounted price until August 1st but the cheapest way to get it is on Underdog fantasy.com using code bdge when you deposit $10 or more I'll see yall tomorrow smoochies [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] I [Music]