Lecture Notes: Bitcoin and the Upcoming Golden Cross

Introduction

• Discussion on the Bitcoin market focusing on the Golden Cross.
• Reminder to subscribe, like, and check out premium content on Into the Cryptoverse.

Death Cross Overview

• Previously discussed in past videos.
• Definition: Occurs when the 50-day SMA falls below the 200-day SMA.
• Generally perceived negatively but often marks local lows in the market.
  • Examples: 2023, 2024, 2025.
• Typical pattern: Dump before the cross and then rally after.
  • Historical consistency observed in 2021, 2022, 2019.
• Panic selling often occurs before the cross, marking a significant market low.

Observations on Death Cross

• Key Observation: Death crosses often lead to short-term rallies.
• Often marks a local low, sometimes the lowest point for the remainder of the year.
• Recent death crosses in 2023 and 2024 occurred in Q3, indicating market weakness during this period.

Golden Cross Overview

• Definition: Occurs when the 50-day SMA rises above the 200-day SMA.
• Not an exact opposite of the death cross; markets generally trend upwards.
  • Phrase to remember: "Bears sound smart, bulls make money."
• Typical pattern: Rally into the golden cross, sometimes a small correction afterward.
  • Examples: 2021 had a notable exception with a dump on the golden cross.

Historical Patterns and Predictions

• Past cycles reveal differences in market reactions to crosses.
• Golden Cross predictions have been historically less deterministic than Death Cross reactions.
• 2023 Misjudgment: Expected a pullback post-golden cross which didn’t happen.
• 2024 Adjustment: Learned from past mistakes, avoided assuming post-cross dips.

Current Market Analysis

• Observation of rallies into golden crosses in past years.
• Upcoming Golden Cross: Expected in the next few days, indicating potential market strength.
• Future Outlook:
  • Potential summer weakness projected for Q3 (July - September).
  • Higher highs by Bitcoin could lead to higher lows during Q3.

Market Strategy

• Trading Strategy: Consider buying during local lows on death crosses for short-term gains.
• Market Trends:
  • 2023 and 2024 observed higher highs and lows, indicating bullish patterns.
  • Consolidation periods often lead to increased Bitcoin dominance.

Conclusion

• Golden Cross Implications: Current market suggests a rally into upcoming cross.
• Support Levels: Important to monitor support between 90-93K if a pullback occurs.
• Emphasis on cautious optimism and adaptation based on historical patterns.

Final Thoughts

• Continued vigilance on market trends, especially during significant periods like late May and early June.
• Encouragement to engage with community content and resources.
• Reminder to subscribe and stay updated on market insights.