Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the upcoming Golden Cross. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. So, if you guys remember a few couple of months ago or so, we put out a video somewhere right around here, I believe. And in that video, we said we are going to have an upcoming death cross. And the expectations going into a death cross. And normally the expectations going into a death cross are the opposite of what you would expect as implied by the name, right? So a lot of times you hear the word death cross, people freak out. All right? And as I said in that video, I don't control what they call them. You know, when maybe we start calling them something else, but that's what they call it. They call it a death cross. And as I pointed out in that video, death crosses often times correspond to local lows in the market. Exhibit A in 2023, exhibit B in 2024, and exhibit C in 2025. So, what normally happens going into death crosses is you dump before the cross and then rally on the other side of it. Pretty simple, right? Pretty simple. You dump before the cross and then rally on the other side of it. And you can see it pretty clearly right here. Dump before the cross and then rally. Dump before the cross and then rally. Same thing, right? Dump here before the cross and then rally. Same thing every time, right? Same thing every time. Also happened in prior cycles. Look at 2021. Death cross right here. The death cross in 2021 marked a local low, right? Death cross sort of sell off into the death cross and then you rally. And you can go back even further and see stuff that and even look at 2022, right? Look at 2022 when we had a death cross dump into the cross and then rally. So the death crosses what normally happens is remember in order to have a death cross you price has to go down because the death cross is made up of it's a moving average, right? It's the the 50-day SMA going below the 200 day SMA. So it's a moving average, right? You can see we have the 50-day moving average right here, 50-day, and then here we have the 200 day. So, in order for a death cross to occur, you have to have negative price action because if you don't, you won't have a death cross. And so, what normally happens is by the time you get one, people freak out. They panic sell. I'm sure you saw some people panic selling back in April. And then it ends up being a bottom, a low for a while. Now, the low in 2024 was the low from that point in the year for the rest of the year. Same thing in 2023. Also, the same thing could be said in 2021, right? like the low was the low for the year. At least at that point in the year going forward through the rest of the year, we didn't take out that low until 2022. So, three of these marked lows that stayed low for the rest of the year. In the case of, and you're probably like, why aren't we talking about golden crosses? Yeah, we're getting to that. try and be patient. In in this case, in 2022, it marked a low, but it didn't stay the low for as long, right? It was a low in January, and then we put in a lower low in in May, right? About 4 months later, we actually ended up getting a lower low. If you look at 2019, you'll see we had a death cross and same thing, right? Sell off into it and then a rally, right? Sell off. and then a rally and then a lower low. So what do you notice about death crosses? What do you notice? You can make two observations. The first observation is that death is that that Bitcoin death crosses correspond to local lows, right? Sometimes it's the low for the rest of the year. Sometimes it's not. But essentially in all the cases you get a rally after the death cross. You get a rally after the death cross, right? I mean this has happened three times this cycle already. Now the interesting thing about these last two death crosses is they occurred in Q3. This one in 2023 was in September and then this one here was in August. But this death cross this year occurred in Q1. Now, typically speaking, there's a lot of weakness in August and September for Bitcoin. Now, not every August and September has to be read, but a lot of times around that Q3 time period, there's a lot of weakness in the market. You can see there was weakness in 2024 and Q3 and there was weakness in 2023 in Q3. So, let's talk about golden crosses because you can you can pretty clearly see that death crosses correspond to local lows, right? And we know that they they correspond to local lows. And you could argue that some of the time it is the low for the rest of the year. But obviously some of the time it's not. So as a trader, right, as a trader to make money, buying on these local lows at death crosses is has been historically been a great short-term trade. whether Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs or new cycle highs or not, buying Bitcoin on the day of the death cross has done really, really well. And we put out a whole video on it called the death cross rally, right? And don't fade the death cross rally uh because it'll last for a little while. Now, what about golden crosses? What about golden crosses? So, go you might think it's the exact opposite, but it's not actually the exact opposite. Um there's there's a little bit more nuance to it. And I think the reason for that is markets generally go up. So, you know, as I've said before, right, bears sound smart, bulls make money. That, you know, that really goes a long way if you just say that to yourself over and over again, right? Bears sound smart, bulls make money. Bears sound smart, bulls make money. Over a long period of time, the bulls will be right more often than the bears. Therefore, more frequently, golden crosses just also tend to lead to rallies. Even though death crosses lead to rallies, golden crosses can also lead to rallies. There are sort of fake golden crosses where you get a golden cross, but on the day of the golden cross, it it marks a top. Okay, it's not as common, right? Again, if you look at the death crosses, you can see that Bitcoin dumps before the death cross and then rallies on the other side of it. But with golden crosses, if you look here in October, Bitcoin rallied into the golden cross, right? Which makes sense. It's it's the exact opposite of the death cross, right? In order to get a golden cross, price has to go up. Because if price doesn't go up, guess what? You don't get a golden cross. the 50-day moving average has to go above the 200 day SMA. So, in this case, you rallied before the golden cross and then you rallied after the golden cross. In 2024, there was a rally before the golden cross and then a slight pullback and still a rally after it. We're about to have another golden cross here within the next few days more than likely. Now, you can see that in this case in 2023 and 2024, buying Bitcoin on the death cross day was good, right? And that's why we spent a lot of time talking about that, right? and I said weakness between February OPEX and March OPEX that would likely extend into early midappril and then we would get a death cross rally. And that's that's exactly what happened in 2023. Buying on the golden cross while at a higher price than the death cross still would have been okay and it also would have been okay in 2024. So that's the bullish view, right? That's the bullish view and and hopefully that view plays out. Some of the times though on golden crosses you don't get that that plays out. 2021 was another example where it did play out, right? But 2021 is an example where on the golden cross you actually had a dump first. The price still eventually went up, but you first had a dump on the golden cross. And back in in 2021 and 2020 and 2019, there was like a completely different pattern with death crosses and golden crosses, right? Um and and in 2021, it basically did the same thing, right? So normally what happens with golden crosses is you you rally into it and then you dump when the golden cross occurs and then you continue the trend, right? Right? So, you rally into the golden cross on the day of the golden cross. People get really excited and then you dump on the day of the golden cross for a few days and then you rally again. And that's what happened in 2021, right? That's what happened in 2021. So, we all make mistakes. I get things wrong. This is one of the things I got wrong in 2023. It I mean, at this point, you know, if you don't if you don't own your mistakes, if you don't remember them, then how do you become a better trader? In 2023, I operated deterministically and thought that Bitcoin would get a dump after the golden cross. And guess what? I was wrong. Right. It didn't. I mean, it it got a pullback. What I mean, it it pulled back like $1,000. You know, do I pat myself on the back? No. I mean, like that was barely a pullback, right? I mean, that was just Bitcoin uh getting, you know, normal Bitcoin volatility. So then in 2024, I learned from my mistake, right? I'm like, well, I'm not going to sit here and and and and wait around for a dump after the golden cross because, you know, it didn't happen last year, so maybe it doesn't have to happen this year. And also, I'd already been saying, you know, that in this case, you would likely have a 6 to9month lull in the market before breaking out. And this corresponded to around that 6 to9 month time frame. It was like 7 to 8 months. So, I didn't fade it there, right? it made sense not to fade it there and that's why um you know I was on the you know I was on the right side of the market in that case whereas in 2023 I was I kept thinking where I was going to come back down and then it never did one of the reasons for that assumption in 2023 was based on what happened in 2019 right so I mean it's evidence that of course not always things repeat uh I was just looking at at this preh having year and comparing it to this preh having year and noting that you know on the day of the death cross we dumped into it and then rallied and then it formed a lower high and then we got a lower low. We also had a golden cross in 2020 and after the golden cross there was a recession induced obviously by a pandemic. I'm not asking you to take that to the bank. Right? If you look at 2022, we had a death cross and in that case you can see we got a rally but ultimately after the death cross it did go down to a lower low, right? The the low the initial low occurred in April and then there was another low in July or in June. The main difference though between 2025 and 2018 right now is that in 2018 we were not looking at a golden cross, right? We we we had a death cross but price never got bullish enough to give us a golden cross. So that never actually materialized and we didn't get a golden cross until uh 2019. And this is another example of price rallying into a golden cross and then dumping right after it. Right? So that was one of the reasons back in like 2023 when we got the golden cross I was looking I was over here looking at at you know what happened over here and just thinking all right well there'll be a a bit of a pullback right you know like a a 10% drop or something and then there wasn't right and then the mark and then there wasn't in 2023 right like the market just kept going up and then I was on the wrong side of the market okay so that's why in 2024 I didn't really wait around for that now here the question, you know, ultimately and and we've we've talked about this before is we know that we we we've historically have had weakness by Bitcoin in the third quarter of the year. You can see that that's the only quarter really that Bitcoin has spent really any considerable time below its bull market support band for the entire cycle with the exception of 2025. Right? 2025 is the first time where we went below the bullmarks band in March and did not get back above it until Q2. So now the question is does it repeat what we had the last two years where we got a summer low right where you know Bitcoin could put in a high right I mean even in 2023 Bitcoin put in a new high but price didn't really go anywhere until October November same thing happened last year right we had this long consolidation period and even in May Bitcoin came up to within what 2% of the highs in May of 2024 and it still was a lower high you know I don't know where we are right now looks like not even 2% or even I think maybe we're even closer than that um from that high if you look see how far you know where Bitcoin is okay actually I'm wrong it's was right around 2% so right now Bitcoin is at the same level down from where it was in in in LA last year and by the Hey, I mean, the reason to be at least a little cautious around the golden cross is that I I think May 20th, yeah, May 20th, May 21st, that was right around the time that Bitcoin uh got a pullback, right? And so, you know, we don't have a golden cross yet, right? I'm not saying that we do. Uh but you can see here if you look closely, you know, just a few days ago they were about 90.6K and 92.3K, right? So, you know, over a little over $1,500 apart. Then the next day they were around I guess this one was a little bit more than that was like 1,600. Then about 1,500 apart. Uh then they were only about 1,200 apart. right? 1,200 apart and then here they were around I'm looking right here at these numbers in case you weren't aware. Uh and then they were only about $900 apart and then today they're only about $600 apart. So it it's only it's likely only going to take a couple more days, a few more days of this to have a golden cross. And so historically what I would have said, my 2023 self, right, my 2023 self would have basically just said, "All right, well, you know, you'll get a pullback on the golden cross and then hopefully we continue the trend after that." Um, but I also know what happened in 2023 and I learned my lesson in 2024. And I'm I'm really glad I learned that lesson uh in 2023 because then it allowed me to basically be on the better side of of that view in in 2024. So here with the golden cross upcoming um I I I think the argument is that you know you're you're getting the rally sort of into the golden cross which is what normally happens. If there's a pullback on the other side of the golden cross, then the area that you would probably expect it to find support would basically be the bullmark sweat band, the 50-day estimate, the 200 day SMA. And they're all at the same price right now, right? I mean, they're all between 90 and 93K. Okay? 90 and 93K is where all of them are right now. So if there is a pullback that would be sort of the main level of support. Now the the the really difficult part about all this is you know in 2024 it was really easy to call for a summer lull because Bitcoin went up in Q1 and then in 2023 it was really easy to call for a summer low because Bitcoin went up really throughout Q1. this time, Bitcoin spent a lot of Q1 going down and I also know in 2017 there was not really a a summer lull. Um, so I my assessment is this, right? And a lot of people want to press me for exactly what's going to happen in the market, but I unfortunately don't have a crystal ball and I can't tell you that. But my assessment of the market would be just simply as follows. And I've said this a number of times over the last couple of weeks, so I don't really think this is going to come as news to anyone. My assessment is this. I think that there will be weakness again by Bitcoin going into Q3. Okay, Q3 being July, August, September. I think there's going to be some weakness around that time. Whether it's a higher low or a lower low to me just simply depends on whether Bitcoin puts in a higher high. Okay, so let's look at the two examples that we have from the last two years. Notice that in 2023, Bitcoin put in a higher high in June, right? A higher high. And then when it got the Q3 pullback, it was a higher low, right? So you had a high and then a higher high and then you had a low, right? This is a higher high, right? You had a low and then you had a higher low. In 2024, as you got into May and June, Bitcoin did not put in a higher high, right? It put in a lower high. And with a lower high, you typically get a lower low, right? So, you went from So, you can kind of see like what I'm talking about, right? If Bitcoin can put in a higher high before the golden cross or even shortly after, then the odds would increase that whatever pullback we might get in Q3 would be a higher low, right? Um, kind of like what happened in 2023. And it it doesn't have to be all the way back down here anyways. I mean, it can maybe it's maybe it's way up here. Maybe uh we get a higher low much higher than what happened in 2023. That's always a possibility. My point is that the window for Bitcoin to see that move is now if it's going to. In 2024, it was unable to. In 2023, it made a new high. Okay. So, do you guys remember what I said about this entire move? I told you guys that there would be weakness when there was weakness and I told you there's going to be a rally on the death cross rally. A lot of people fade all these things and they they say all sorts of stuff but now I'll play it out. Um the good news for Bitcoin is that it stayed above the 2024 high. Now I told you guys that if it stayed above it then there's still hope. The market the market structure is not broken. I said that if it goes below the 2024 high and goes down here the market structure would be broken. So what I would say is this, a higher high would give more confidence I think to the market that you know, you know, it could then put on a higher low. If Bitcoin tops out right around here around the time of the golden cross, like right here, if it tops out, then you likely get a lower low in Q3, right? where you basically just you see a repeat of last year where you just kind of you put in these lower lows and and you know that you can have a few months between one low and another low, right? Like this low here was in April. You know, it's possible the next low could be in like August, September time frame if there's going to be weakness by Bitcoin again in the third quarter of the year. So I think that's how I would I would sort of frame that. The good news is, well, obviously no one knows what's going to happen, but I would argue that the good news is that if we are unfortunate and the market puts in a lower high, even if it does put in a lower low, I still think Bitcoin would likely get a bounce back up to these levels like later on this year, right? Kind of like what happened last year, right? where you kept getting bounces back up even as late as October and it could have still gone into a lower low but I mean it eventually broke out but you still had these big bounces. So the reason why I say that is because obviously you know you guys know that Bitcoin dominance is really important at least to me and I try to explain why I should I think it should be important to you as well. One of the things that happened during the last two summers while Bitcoin USD went nowhere, something was happening for the people that cared to look. Bitcoin dominance was skyrocketing during the periods that Bitcoin was went sideways over here as well. You see that how Bitcoin dominance was skyrocketing while Bitcoin USD was consolidating. So, I would say this. If Bitcoin USD does end up consolidating for a while, whether it puts in a new high or not, but if it just ends up repeating the last two years, and it just keeps consolidating, you're likely going to see Bitcoin dominance go higher. And the good news is that even if Bitcoin USD does come back down, say like here, it would still likely come back up here later on this year before it would become, you know, a lower high more sort of officially. And then we, you know, then the cycle's over as potentially go into 2026, the normal midterm bare market year. So that's what I mean when I say like Bitcoin gives you exposure to the upside, but it also minimizes your downside risk, right? It gives you exposure to the upside. If Bitcoin breaks out, but if Bitcoin doesn't break out and comes back down, it minimizes your downside risk. Now, I said the exact same thing back in January, right? I said the exact same thing over here. And right there, right, I said the exact same thing throughout this entire period. And what happened is that Bitcoin sold off and then it came right back up. So, was what I said correct? Right? Did it does it give you exposure to the upside, but it also minimizes your downside risk? Well, look what Bitcoin dominance has done so far this year, right? I mean, Bitcoin dominance has gone up a ton, right, since that time. So, Bitcoin, you're basically I mean, Bitcoin is basically at an all-time high. I mean, it's not there, but it's almost there. It's really, really close. So, even if you didn't take any profits over here, you're still basically near all-time highs, whereas the altcoin market is not. And that's the key thing. So, look at Bitcoin compared to the altcoin market. Look at total three. You see where Bitcoin is? You see how how much higher Bitcoin is compared to the altcoin market? Let me let me show you in a different way. You guys remember how earlier I said Bitcoin was only 2% away from the prior high, like 2% lower. Look where the altcoin market is. Look how much lower the altcoin market is. 23 to 24% lower than the all-time high. And by the way, alt put in a lower high in January. It was a lower high. It was not even a higher high. It was a lower high. Whereas for Bitcoin, it was a higher high. Total market cap was also a lower high in January. Right? So like that's the kind of the interesting thing is that total was a lower high in January even though Bitcoin put in a higher high. The same thing happened in 2023, right? The same thing happened in 2023. Bitcoin put in a higher high in the summer, but Total Market Cap in 2023, guess what? put in a lower high in the summer. You see that? So that trend is still very much alive, right? Like that trend hasn't actually changed. And so that's what I want people to to sort of be aware of is that like yeah, if Bitcoin does show strength in the summer, it doesn't mean that that alts necessarily have to follow that, right? And if Bitcoin does not show strength, if it just puts in a lower high here, if or if the total market cap puts in a lower high here, kind of like it did last May and last June, and it goes down again, then that's how alts go down a lot again on their Bitcoin pairs. And you know, I put out a lot of views on all Bitcoin pairs, and you know, I I recently said they're likely going to get rejected by their bullmark sport band on that rally, and sure enough, they did, right? I mean, you had a wick all the way up to the 21week EMA and a rejection, right? Pretty clear rejection. So, the trend has been there for a long time for anyone who cares to look. Bitcoin is going into a golden cross. If you exclude 2023 and 2024, what used to happen with golden crosses is you would rally into it and then you would get a correction on the other side of it and then the trend would then eventually continue, right? But you get sort of a a knee-jerk sell-off kind of cooling down from from the euphoria. So, where it could become problematic is if Bitcoin does not put in an all-time high and then it sells off under that normal correction. if it's too close to Q3, you know, does it just simply come back below the bull market support band again? Um, hopefully not. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it. Hope for the best, plan for the worse, as as I like to say. Uh, but just some, you know, just some thoughts to consider here as we as we go into this period, sort of that late May, early June period. Obviously, that's been a really important time for Bitcoin. Uh, last year, you can kind of see it. It it had a really great run. Uh and then it came down in in you know in sort of mid June year before that it actually got a big rally in mid June but then it just basically spent the next several months bleeding back down into the third quarter of the year. So there's still some time for Bitcoin to prove itself uh if it wants to right there's still some time for Bitcoin to get that move especially if it can rally into the golden cross which still actually hasn't happened yet. If we get a golden cross and then we get a pullback, remember the area to watch is going to be right here, 90 to 93K. That's going to be your main area of support under under that under that circumstance. But those are my views on the market, guys. Uh thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.