Notes on Philippine Political Landscape and South China Sea Tensions

Overview of Political Climate

• Key Players:
  • Sarah Duterte: Former Education Secretary, Vice President of the Philippines.
  • Ferdinand "Bong Bong" Marcos Jr.: Current President of the Philippines.
• Conflict Origin:
  • Duterte family vs. Marcos family feud.
  • Marcos Jr. deviates from Duterte's accommodating policy towards China.

Sarah Duterte's Resignation

• Resignation Date: June 2024.
• Significance:
  • Indicates growing rift between Duterte and Marcos.
  • Allows Duterte to criticize the administration openly.

Foreign Policy Divergence

• Duterte Administration (2016-2022):
  • Favorable towards China, often accommodating its interests.
  • Set aside the 2016 Hague Tribunal ruling against China's claims.
• Marcos Administration:
  • More assertive stance on the Philippines' maritime claims.
  • Increased military cooperation with the United States.
  • Largest joint military exercises (Balikatan) in 2023.

Tensions in the South China Sea

• Geopolitical Context:
  • China claims significant portions of the South China Sea (9/10-dash line).
  • Philippines asserts rights under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
• Recent Clashes:
  • Increased confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels.
  • Notable incident: June 17, 2024, a Philippine Coast Guard officer injured during a clash.

Duterte's Criticism of Marcos

• Claims from Duterte:
  • Accuses Marcos of being an American stooge.
  • Criticism of Marcos’ shift in foreign policy and defense reliance on the U.S.

Political Dynamics and Upcoming Elections

• 2025 Midterm Elections:
  • Political maneuvering expected from both Duterte and Marcos families.
  • Potential candidates emerging from both camps.
• 2028 Presidential Elections:
  • Sara Duterte is expected to run for presidency.

Economic Implications

• Current Economic Landscape:
  • Inflation rising, impacting public sentiment.
  • Foreign investments lagging behind other Asian nations.
• Political Stability Concerns:
  • Continued political instability may deter foreign investments.

Social Media and Public Sentiment

• Role of Social Media:
  • High usage among Filipinos for news and commentary.
  • Potential for misinformation and heightened political toxicity.
• Polarization Effects:
  • Political allegiance increasingly defined by family loyalties (Duterte vs. Marcos).

Conclusion

• Outlook for the Philippines:
  • Rising tensions between the Marcos and Duterte families may influence both domestic policy and international relations, particularly regarding China and the South China Sea.
  • The situation remains fluid, with potential for significant political shifts leading into upcoming elections.