in June Filipino vice president Sarah duterte quit her post as education secretary the shest sign yet of the Brewing feud between her family and president Ferdinand bong bong Marcos Jr right now she has a free hand to criticize the administration to entice supporters entice people to align with them but as two of the Philippines most powerful families clash in the backdrop is a superpower rivalry so the duterte administration was famous for accommodating China most of the time Marcos has practically outsourced our defense and foreign policies to the United States what impact will domestic disagreements have on the Philippines choices in the South China Sea District [Music] great game the game of the [Music] superpowers for here in zambales Philippines Ean ponus has made his living from the Seas for the last five decades 260 there's a reason efran no longer Ventures into the Waters of the Scaro Shore some 200 km away despite the promise of a bountiful catch for the Scaro Shaw and the spratly islands to the Southwest are are in a disputed area of the South China Sea part of which is called the West Philippine Sea by the Filipinos these islands lie within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines according to the United Nations convention on law of the sea or anlos the exclusive economic zone is an area of up to 200 nautical miles from a country's land mass which it can legally exploit meanwhile China claims a large swath of the South China Sea bounded by what it called the nine now 10 dash line including much of the Philippines [Music] e so the main strategy by which China attempts to deny us uh access to our Waters in the South China Sea is by maintaining a presence there in order to physically block but also deter fishing efforts and offshore oil and gas survey efforts by the Philippines in the last year and a half clashes between the vessels of these two Nations have become more frequent in these Waters culminating in perhaps the tenses confrontation yet on June 17th Chinese Sailors armed with knives and sticks CL crashed with Filipino personnel and it started because president Marcos Jr started to Pivot away from the non-confrontational policy of duterte China also ramped up its response and increasingly those responses have become more and more violent no culminating in this unfortunate incident in which a Philippine Coast Guard officer had his thumb cut off this is the first time in many years that there has been physical injury that uh arose from The Clash in the backdrop of the conflict between China and the Philippines there is another Feud brewing a quarrel that could shape how Manila deals with its standoff with Beijing bad blood is bubbling between the Philippines president Ferdinand bong bong Marcos Jr and his predecessor Rodrigo duterte early signs of a rift could be seen when Marcos Jr deviated from duterte's approach to China so the duterte administration was famous in its foreign policy for accommodating China most of the time there was an expectation during the elections that Marcos Jr is as the anointed successor of uh president duterte that Marcus Jr is going to continue the foreign policy of uh du but that did not happen West philippin what we saw instead is that Marcos Jr pursued a harder foreign policy which meant that Marcos Jr was more um assertive in uh defending the philippines's rightful Maritime claims in the west Philippine Sea yet Rodrigo duterte who was president from 2016 to 2022 was not always so accommodating with Beijing while he was campaigning for the presidency duerte promised to State the Filipino claim on the disputed but after coming to power president duterte would switch tact going so far as setting aside a 2016 ha tribunal arbitration decision that China's claims had no legal Foundation pursuant to unclos China has rejected the hag [Music] ruling so focus is independent for policy usual term friends to All Enemies to n yeah there is this decision by the tribunal who will implement it so if we cannot do this you knowed conflict situation why not befriending China in the hope no that they they will have they will also [Music] respond China actually lifted some restrictions on Filipino fishing during du's term nonetheless his courting of Beijing left some fishermen here in zambales with bias or rather voters [Music] remorse for when du's term was up his Camp would form an alliance with the marcoses in the 2022 presidential election Rodrigo duterte's daughter Sarah DTE ran to be fera marcos's vice president dubbed the uni team the Marcos duerte tandem won in the landslide but soon after his inauguration President Marcus Jr took a different path from his [Music] predecessor firstate visit billion official peot away from China from the duterte foreign policy one move by the Marcos Administration was to actively assert Filipino claims in the disputed sea the Filipino leader also beefed up the enhanced defense cooperation agreement with America allowing US troops access to more facilities in the Philippines then he would also expand joint military exercises with the US and its allies with this year's balikatan war games being the largest yet all to China's CH reactive China so you notice if there are untoward incidents in the west philippin sea which China initiated it's usually after we have other activities with other countries so know we from to 18 to us for the past six years but what China does not seem to understand is that uh um the Philippines is going to the US precisely because of the insecurity that China is causing duterte would come out against his successor's actions in an inter interview with Chinese State media the former president implied that Marcus Jr was an American stouge that it is the Americans that will tell him what he should say to China Marcos has practically outsourced our defense and foreign policies to the United States and at the same time we have a former president that is using the closeness of Marcos to the United States in order to uh discredit him uh not because of national interest but because of dynastic interest but as far as the fishermen are concerned they prefer Marcus's more muscular approach for at the heart of the Marcos duterte Feud is a political power play and a recent move by the Vice President could be a declaration of war [Music] July 22nd 2024 typhoon season has brought torrential Reigns to keson city Philippines inside the batasang pambansa complex President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is about to deliver his third state of the nation address or Sona outside the Deluge did not dampen the enthusiasm of the gathered maros [Music] supporters maros [Music] number one yet there's one prominent absentee at this Sona vice president Sarah duterte she had earlier announced that she would skip the speech as the self-proclaimed designator Survivor a designator Survivor is typically someone from the cabinet who is absent from political Gatherings so that in the event the president and top elected officials are harmed he or she can assume power the vice president however has no authority to appoint herself the designated Survivor instead observers say Sarah duterte's absence is political I was not surprised that she would not attend because after all if you've just made a very public split leaving the cabinet of the president um it would be very strange for you to appear in Thea in fact I would understand remember microphone so if ever she will be attacked by the president so uh she cannot defend herself why would president Marcos Jr attack his Deputy his earthw uni team partner well one month before Sona on June 19th the vice president quit her cabinet position is the education secretary the clearest sign yet that she has split from the maros camp it's untenable because a Cabinet member is supposed to be um the alter ego of the Philippine president and if it is obvious that a Cabinet member is no longer a part of the president's team then his or her place in the cabinet would be very difficult to understand the rift we have to go back to 2022 president Rodrigo duterte was about to end his term in office and campaign season is underway for the country's next leader well 202 2021 number one 27% 27 28 B Marcos was 20% was 19 so top witho as vice president definitely Bongo as vice president president BBM so after the filing until deadline for substitution uh October or November I negotiate former president Gloria makal Aro aty Marcos sbm by December Unstoppable un my sense is that um some of um her advisers um um thought that it would be best for her to uh be with Marcos um mainly because Sara duterte lacked experience in the executive at the national level and so that would um adequately prepare her if uh she runs for the presidency in 2028 and in fact her father was not shy in saying that he was disappointed with his daughter's decision to run or to give way to Marcus Jr to run for president and she will just run for the vice presidency in the Philippines the president and the vice president are elected separately instead of a single ticket like in the United States in 2022 as a result of the uni team Alliance both Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Sarah duterte won their contest handedly though many observers did not expect this political partnership to last I wrote in an article that basically said that this alliance between two dast this is not going to last at the most it's going to last about a year and a half because in the Philippine context has historically electoral alliances between dynasties has have been alliances of convenience I guess the first sign of friction was when she was not given the defense cabinet uh portol Vice literally the vice presidency is a Heartbeat Away from the presidency soon the families would quarrel over another matter president Marcos proposed a constitutional change in December 2023 to amend the country's foreign ownership laws currently Public Utilities must be Filipino owned they are also caps on foreign control in sectors like education and [Music] advertising they want to liberalize or kind of relax the Constitutional Provisions that prevent certain foreign companies from investing in the Philippines the argument is that the Philippines lags behind foreign direct investment compared to other Asian countries mainly because of this constitutional provision some people are are worried that there is nothing that can prevent those who will change the Constitution from also changing the political Provisions in the Constitution which can actually um extend the terms of the current um politician so that would be a game Cher so they wouldn't want that in Filipino history a Constitution change has previously been used to concentrate power in the head of state in 1973 by the current president's father ferdinan Marcos senior well the Constitution was amended to be to make the Philippines a parliamentary system it was promoted as a democratic Constitution but of course the important thing was informally speaking they were it was a greater concentration of power on his part the cons tion Amendment divided power between the president and the Prime Minister similar to the French system but having declared martial law in 1972 maros senum effectively held both offices and all Associated Powers it was one of Marcus's ways of trying to hide the fact that with in 1972 he had established a a a dictatorship in the present rodri duterte was initially critical of any constitutional amendment I think what he's really afraid of is that Sarah won't be able to run for president in 2028 and the one who would be favored most by this is Martin rales Who as a speaker of the house uh would be the key person within uh one house uh parliamentary uh system Martin romales is the current Speaker of the House and president marcos's cousin and close Ally if it becomes a parliamentary system where the speaker current Speaker of the House becomes the Prime Minister then that will suit very much desires or the interests of the Marcos Dynasty after the amendment proposal the duterte camp would ramp up their attacks on president Marcos Jr while Sarah duterte largely kept out of the fry her brothers and her father would take the gloves off the Armed Forces of the Philippines my drug [Applause] addict drer drug addict incumbent presat sedition people power Uprising Mutiny Ceta no secession even a hint of assassination until recently both president Marcos Jr and vice president duterte have maintained some distance from the conflict but things could now change criticize because you know she's part of the administration right now she has a free hand to criticize the administration um to entice supporters entice people to align with them are you for me or against me I think there will be uh uh people will be forced to declare their allegiances whether they're for the marcoses or for the uh the tures outside the venue of the state of the nation address the supporters are drawing battle lines for build the Tiff between two of the Philippines most powerful families divide ordinary Filipinos and what role the superp power rivalry play in this Byron christall made a name for himself as the manager of a female music group but online he's better known by his Monica bat B where the vlogger is a fervent du supporter 20122 talago mayor p with the fissure between the maros and duterte camps babai has become increasingly critical of the president from the 2021 maros as one of du's most out spoken supporters bar receives his fair share of hate for but himself is not without controversy there are online petitions to shut banard by's social Pages for spreading misinformation and he's currently being sued for liel by a former Senator the vlogger however is defant Filipinos have some of the highest usage of social media in Southeast Asia and it is their main Outlet to keep up to date about 6 and 10 use Facebook for news the problem though is the online space in the Philippines is notoriously toxic it was once dubbed patient zero in the fake news epidemic which was [Music] started formera Julie is a reporter with one news assigned to cover the president [Music] in the last decade Filipino journalists like her have been on the receiving end of brutal harassment the center for media freedom and responsibility recorded 75 cases of attacks and threats against journalists between June 2022 and April 2023 if I remember correctly motorb so of from the prev mes fake news the worry is if the feud between the president and the DU intensifies how will it divide Filipinos our politics tend to gravitate toward personality politics rather than political parties so it's very easy to be polarized because the degree of polarization depends upon the number of key personalities uh there are in late January former president duterte poured fuel on the fire he suggested that the region of mind now should secede from the Philippines the majority of Filipino Muslims live in mind now it is a fraud region where Rebels once fought the government for Independence decades prior one part of it known as bangsamoro is in talks with the government for autonomy minow's biggest city is Dava City a du stronghold Rodrigo dte's youngest son Sebastian is the city's mayor a post his sister and father previously held why did Rodrigo duterte make such an incendiary remark like secession so that statement was again no trying to test the waters try to activate the MB support now we separate we have been neglected we can do it on our own we are the food basket of the Philippines but you know it did not get that much uh support I guess they a lot of people already know that that would be impossible the Philippines National Security advisor Eduardo ano would respond saying that any attempt to succeed will be met by the government with Resolute force in mindo du's call gained little traction leaders of the moral Islamic Liberation Front who are negotiating a banga moral autonomy deal with the federal government were quick to reject the idea of secession it's not an option while we respect the view of uh the former president but I don't think uh uh it does not uh change anything but elsewhere something curious happened happened chyang works for double Think Lab a research agency based in Taiwan after du's remarks the began to notice posts about an imminent Filipino Civil War circulating on Chinese social media double Think Lab also found that some Philippine influencers were parting the Chinese narratives it's axy maros us it would really depend on how China would try to play with the situation like and when details IM that Rodrigo dette as president had entered a secret agreement with China to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea the former president was labeled a traitor in public and online his supporters were also t with the same brush Philippines we want to protect the Filipinos as the feud turns bitter the war of words between the two camps is likely to rush it up potentially dividing supporters on the issues in the South China Sea for the first more than 9 social the last thing that uh we need right now um is a country where politicians are wiring or quarreling um because um we have a an external threat in this political contests who wins could impact how the country deals with its many challenges in our international relations we have faced challenges to our territorial sovereignty and we will assert our rights and interests in the same fair and Pacific way that we have always done this year sauna was the first time that the West Philippine Sea was mentioned in a state of a Nation address by President Marcos West philippin after this Sona we see a clear break both in actions and in words of the Marcos Jr Administration from the duterte administration is just the start okay we have drawn the linesin lines from drawing of lines you will go recruitment of your allies on the horizon is a contest where the conflict could play out the 2025 midterm elections former president duterte and two of his sons have hinted at a run for the Senate Sara duterte will have her own set of candidates Marcus Jr will have her own his own set of candidates and then uh the opp the real opposition will also have uh its own set of candidates especially the Senate it's going to be a popularity contest well [Music] uh maros the faction that wins the midterms will have the momentum going into the 2028 presidential elections clearly the marcoses are preparing for uh uh Sarah dues running uh in 2028 and the dues are also uh you know preparing for that what's going to happen with this feud between these two families that has now passed from the level of what you might call verbal kind of exchanges and it has now moved into open Warfare it's no political war between these two families in terms of approval rating and Trust vice president duterte has consistently pulled higher than president maros though since the split the Gap has narrowed at least in one poll year this year issues like uh food inflation the Filipino economy grew the fastest in asan last year at 5.6% though inflation has darkened the economic highlights while it is down from the peak of 2023 General headline inflation climbed in 2024 to 4.4% % in July food inflation is slightly higher above 6% furthermore foreign investment remains comparatively low in 2023 the Philippines ranked sixth among the 10 asan countries in terms of foreign direct investment inflows we are in a very competitive uh environment and a very competitive area known as southeast Asia everybody is looking for Investments so we have a few challenges ahead of us considering our uh power energy cost is one of the highest in the region compared to our neighbors and these are things that we have to upgrade and also the big challenge of uh ease of doing business here too the feud could have an impact this feud between the dues and marcoses it might lead to a period of political instability uh in in the field Philippines no which might spook away um potential investment I think no what spook investors and as well as uh our diplomatic Partners how quickly policies can change between administrations the primary worry is that what if Sara duterte wins the 2028 elections no uh if she wins that that elections no we are going to expect that she's going to undo the policies of of Marcos with the Marcos administ rtion pivot to America Washington has pledged over1 billion us to invest in the Philippines semiconductor sector friendly relations with any country is favorable for us any any country of course for certain benefits some countries will go out of their way to help you but they will help you as long as it will benefit them they will not help you to the detriment of their own interests that's politics and I businessmen are not afraid of politics we tried as much as possible to learn and to work with politics besides the Philippines midterms all eyes will be on another election as we head into 2025 the vote for the next US president so if it's still if now har we don't have any problems because our perception is that it will continue whatever is the program uh provided to us but if it's Trump then that's another story if Trump perceive that their presence in the Philippines will only cost them money and they will not gain anything I don't think they will continue whatever promises the democ Administration promised us so we were correct we were right all that from the very start so already things are getting ugly vice president Sarah duterte accused the authorities of reducing her security detail while her brother D mayor Sebastian duterte alleged that the federal government is delaying funds for projects in Dava the administration denies that these moves are politically motivated meanwhile president Marcos has been Koy about allowing the international criminal court to investigate the extrajudicial killings of his predecessors Drug War One one of the biggest cards they play is the IC the international criminal court investigation so that's a very big sword of theoc on former president duterte so you destroy the reputation of our justice system and you know for all we know 2028 andong is still under investigation these Salos in the Marcos duterte Feud could be a sign of things to come all with perhaps an impact on both domestic and foreign policy game the game of the superpowers this is the problem at this point that the United States is taking ADV Advantage uh of the image of China as a bully in order to fortify its offensive capabilities in the Philippines and that's really a tragedy and we need to do something about it my biggest concern is that because of the split people are made to believe that there are only two choices Marcos and the and that's sad and unfortunate thing if that happens because um I believe that there are uh a lot of uh the serving politicians out there who can also run and hopefully win uh public office because the Philippines is at the CP of change we're trying to revitalize our economy to quell an a country who is encroaching on our territory story so our politicians should get their acts together [Music]