ASEAN Matters Lecture Notes

Introduction

• Speaker: Ann Marie Murphy, Senior Research Scholar at Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
• Guest Speaker: Dr. Nata-Lagawa, former Foreign Minister of Indonesia (2009-2014).
• Purpose: Discuss the relevance of ASEAN and its contributions over the decades.

Overview of Dr. Nata-Lagawa's Background

• Illustrious career in diplomacy.
• Guided Indonesia's chairmanship of ASEAN in 2011, overseeing the East Asia Summit's expansion.
• Former permanent representative to the UN and president of the UN Security Council.
• Currently a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
• Author of the book "Does ASEAN Matter? A View from Within."

Key Topics Discussed

ASEAN's Relevance

• Question posed: Does ASEAN matter?
  • Though self-evident, the question aims to identify what ASEAN needs to do to remain relevant.

Transformation of Southeast Asia Relations

• ASEAN's role in transforming relationships among Southeast Asian countries.
  • Pre-1967: Countries in conflict, animosity, and distrust.
  • Post-ASEAN: Strategic trust developed, making open conflict unthinkable.
• **Examples of ASEAN’s Impact:
  • Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (1976): Commitment to peaceful dispute resolution.
  • Expansion from ASEAN 5 to ASEAN 10: Addresses dualism in Southeast Asia.
  • Formation of ASEAN Community (2005-2015): Transition from association to community.**

Broader Regional Impact

• Before ASEAN: Southeast Asian countries were pawns in major power rivalries (e.g., Cold War).
• Post-ASEAN: ASEAN members earned centrality in regional architecture creation (e.g., ASEAN Plus processes).

Economic Transformation

• ASEAN's significant economic progress: 30-fold increase in GDP per capita.
• Promotion of good governance and human rights since 2003 as part of ASEAN’s people-centered focus.

Future Challenges for ASEAN

• Complacency is a threat; more effort is needed for relevance.

• Issues of Trust and Institutions:

  • Current trust deficit lies in unutilized institutions created by ASEAN.
  • Example: Treaty of Amity and Cooperation remains dormant when disputes arise.

• Need for Leadership and Crisis Management:

  • ASEAN should develop a crisis management capacity to respond effectively to sudden developments.
  • Suggested creation of a permanent Peace and Security Council in Jakarta.

ASEAN’s Unity and Differences

• Importance of maintaining ASEAN’s unity amidst varying foreign policy alignments.
• Historically, differences were seen as strengths; current dynamics require finesse in managing these variations.

The Role of East Timor and Future Membership

• Discussion on East Timor's accession to ASEAN and the need for consensus among member states.
• Challenge of expanding ASEAN membership while maintaining decision-making efficiency.

Trade Wars and Economic Diplomacy

• The impact of the US-China trade war on ASEAN.
• Need for proactive economic diplomacy in the face of regional challenges.
• Concern over countries adopting mercantilist strategies that could harm regional unity.

Leadership and Decision-Making in ASEAN

• Criticism of ASEAN's consensus model leading to non-decision-making.
• Need for a balance between leadership and the rotating chairmanship to ensure continuity and ownership.

Final Thoughts

• ASEAN has mattered in the past but must strive to sustain relevance through proactive and transformative action.
• Optimism for ASEAN’s ability to reinvent itself despite challenges.