Lecture Notes: Trading and Market Analysis

Introduction

• Audio Check & Delays: Initial audio check confirmed, slight delay as per 'union guidelines'.
• Risk Disclaimer: Emphasized longer than usual.

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)

• Upcoming NFP: Occurs in 20 minutes; described as unpredictable like FOMC, CPI, PPI.
• Advice for New Traders:
  • Wait 15 minutes post-NFP (8:45 EST) to start trading.
  • Avoid trading on non-farm payroll days if new.
  • Recommends against trading post-Wednesday on NFP weeks.
• Market Behavior:
  • Market may consolidate or make sharp moves pre-NFP.
  • Examples of variable market behavior on NFP weeks.

Trading Insights

• Avoiding Influencers:
  • Importance of understanding why prices move.
  • Caution against "easy money" through selling education without proper knowledge.
• Trading with Understanding:
  • Emphasizes learning to trade first before seeking to influence others.
  • Write in your journal: "Permission to never trade NFP days."

Market Movements

• Post-NFP Strategy:
  • Wait for market inefficiencies to settle post-release.
  • Importance of patience and waiting for market layout.
• Liquidity Pools:
  • Look for minor buy/sell side liquidity pools.
  • Identify highs and lows for primary liquidity pools pre-NFP.

Trading Psychology

• Emotional Control:
  • Resist impulse to trade without clear market signals.
  • Recognize the emotional struggle of waiting in trades.

Analyzing Price Action

• Price Movements:
  • Discusses potential market movements post-NFP release.
  • Explains why certain price movements occur.
• Study Non-Farm Payroll:
  • Use NFP as a study tool, not a trading opportunity.
  • Recognize lack of consistent pre-NFP trading strategies.
• Market Analysis Techniques:
  • Demonstrates how to analyze charts for liquidity pools.
  • Discusses the volatility and unpredictability of NFP days.

Key Takeaways

• Patience & Discipline:
  • Stress on not trading on intuition or lack of clarity.
  • Focus on understanding market behavior and waiting for signals.
• Liquidity & Volatility:
  • Importance of identifying liquidity pools and understanding market volatility.
• Learning from Experience:
  • Use personal and shared experiences to learn market behaviors.
  • Emphasizes practical learning over theoretical knowledge.

Final Remarks

• Conclusion of Session:
  • Reminder of the unpredictability of NFP days.
  • Encourages rest and preparation for future learning sessions.