Well good morning folks. Good morning, good morning. If you are one of the few that follow me on X, you could just give me a heads up, let me know you can hear me. Give me an audio check. Is the audio good?
Is the audio loud? I'm not hearing myself so already I'm getting confirmation that y'all can hear so that's good so I appreciate your your patience I wanted to have that Risk disclaimer show for a little bit longer than I normally do so and I apologize for being somewhat tardy But you know us us furus, you know, we have to stick to the union guidelines and rules and we have to be You have to be late every now and then we like to sell it as fashionable to be to be late Just union rules hooks. So, um obviously we are I'm going to be watching the carnage that is non-farm payroll here in about 20 minutes or so and I want to remind you that I never know where it's going to go. Non-farm payroll is a carnival ride and it can be very damaging if you go out here and try to speculate ahead of it. Treat it like an FOMC.
You don't know where it's going. Treat it like CPI. You don't know where it's going.
Like a PPI number. you have no idea where it's going. So it's always better to simply wait, wait for it to do whatever it's going to do, wait about 15 minutes, and then see what the lay of the land looks like after that, meaning what inefficiencies are still in play, what smooth areas above or below the marketplace, 15 minutes minimum after non-frappero hits.
So that means 845 Eastern Standard Time. New York local time, that's when you have the green light to start going in and seeking opportunities to study. If you're brand new, if you're a brand new student, you're a brand new trader in the making, if you will, whether you, if you have studied with anyone else, if you're coming to me, I'm calling you a brand new.
Okay. Because chances are, you probably learned a lot of stuff that has absolutely no bearing on why price is going to move. So it's no question as to why you're losing money if you're trading on these days, because you're trying to do something that is ill-equipped to handle the uncertainty that even my concepts will not deliver the clarity that's required to be positioned ahead of it. So that's the reason why I tell my students, if you're brand new, don't trade after Wednesday morning, New York local time on non-farm payroll weeks. And you can see Wednesday was a little bit of a challenging day.
Thursday was a little bit of a challenging day. If you're new, if you don't know what you're doing, they can be very problematic. And then you're met with, obviously, the king of volatility for this particular week. It's the nonfarm payroll. It's usually the first Friday of every month, 8.30 a.m.
And leading up that number, it can be a little unruly in price. Meaning that it can it can start to consolidate and then create these little sharp little jabs Above or below and go right back into consolidation again, and you can see pretty much. That's what we've seen here now there has been for completeness sake in my career and since I was doing Mentorship with the forex payers there has been none of our payroll weeks where during the Wednesday and Thursday Very favorable price action was available, put it that way.
But that's usually far and few between, so it's not the standard. So it was very difficult for me to try to teach this concept to new Forex traders because they're constantly looking to get into a trade. They're constantly trying to chase the influencers, trying to get enough money or get enough understanding so they can talk a good game and do...
mentorships and courses and whatnot. Because that's the fast money. That's the easy money. Getting someone else to send you money for education and you can talk in market replay.
There's a lot of suckers that fall into that, but you have to know what you're doing. You have to know exactly how you're going to navigate these markets. Because if you're put into the litmus test of having to do it live, explaining why the market should behave a certain way and why it should not behave a certain way at given times, that's prowess.
That's understanding. excuse me, the lack of that in this industry is obvious. You can really see it.
But there's a lot of lipstick added to hide those types of things because of pomp, because of things purchased outside of trading profits and showcasing those things. So I just want to remind the young men, because that's usually who this is I'm talking to, you're not trying to become an influencer. You got to first learn how to be a good trader.
because endless amounts of money income opportunities will be afforded to you If you learn how to do this well, you can open up a path that you have no idea what's available to you. Right now, you're blinded by confusion and uncertainty, not knowing what to do. Just in your journal, do me and yourself a favor.
Write in your journal that you have permission, you have ICT's permission, and give yourself permission to never trade this day. Never trade it. Months from now after you've developed yourself into a well-rounded trader, you have a model that you haven't deviated from, you haven't tinkered with it, you haven't tried to change things.
When you're getting consistent returns using that and you don't feel swayed by your emotions, then, then you can go into non-farm payroll after the release at 830, wait 15 minutes minimum, and then the rest of the day you can trade it normally. But it's important for you to prove that you have the willpower to stay away from this carnival ride because every new trader, whether they're Forex, commodities or futures, they all want to try to trade this day. And I did, too.
I wanted to like I saw a lot of movement. I was like, wow, if I could get that kind of movement real quick and sudden, that would overcome my fear and anxiety about staying in a trade because it was something I wasn't willing to submit to. Putting on a trade and then having to wait for it to get to your target is agony. When you're a new student, when you're a new trader, you want them to be just like my videos, where I speed them up and it feels like, wow, I got 185 handles in two and a half minutes.
That's the trades I want, but it's not accurate. It's not a true depiction of what you're going to have to submit to. But watching the non-farm payroll, as you'll see in a couple minutes, it tricks you when you're brand new. It tricks you thinking that, wow, there's a way to get in there before that.
No, there isn't. There really isn't, folks. And I want you to know that.
I want you to understand that there is no consistent way for you to be positioned ahead of nonfarm payroll with any measure of consistency that will afford you profitability. I mean that sincerely. I'm not hiding some secret technique, concept, PDA rate. I don't know. OK, I genuinely in Jesus name, I do not know how to call nonfarm payroll.
before it happens. I don't. So I have to sit here and I have to wait just like anybody else would and see what do they do to damage on? What do they crush in terms of buy side and sell side? What inefficiencies do they trade to and which ones do they leave?
So I got a question about what constitutes a minor buy side and sell side and what is the primary buy side and sell side? So every single time I sit in front of non-farm payroll, and I don't do it all the time or sometimes because I don't trade them really. The times where I'm not interested in looking at it, I'm doing something else. But if I'm able to, I always try to study non-farm payroll.
I usually watch it with my private students and I'll cover like about what I'm going to show you here where the actual primary miner liquidity pools are. And then we watch and see which one hits. And then we look for the opposing side to get traded to. So in your mind, that's all I want you to do today.
And every non-farm payroll going forward. And I'm going to tell you why this will fail as a studying mechanism as well. But initially, I want you to look at the chart.
Start with a 15 minute time frame. It's very, very simple rules. OK, what you're going to do is about 8.15, quarter after eight. where you have 15 minutes or so.
We have plenty of time, so I can still jawbone and cover what I'm going to say. But 8.15, you want to see where market price is at that time. So we give ourselves 15 minutes before the actual news release at 8.30. They release the employment data.
I don't care what the number is. I never, I never review, I have never reviewed with my students the number of how many jobless claims there has been. And the...
the change from the previous month. I could care less about that number. The market doesn't care about that number.
The market is a big casino and they're throwing constant red herrings at you as a trader and as a speculator, as an investor. They're trying to cultivate and manipulate market sentiment with these things. That's why fundamentally speaking, no pun intended, the The pursuit of using that data on a short-term basis is flawed, just like trying to use long-term interest rates.
trends for intraday trading is useless because you could be in a carry trade market on a forex pair where one interest rate in a country is higher than the other and being long with that currency as the base that would be a good long-term trade holding on to it because not only you're going to be most likely profitable in the direction but you're also going to get interest bearing because you're having your money tied up in that larger interest rate currency In that respect, obviously, you know, it makes sense to hold on to a pair like that because it's going to yield better over time. But that doesn't mean that I wouldn't sell short that that Forex pair if I was trading it. So these fundamental long term perspectives, these macro perspectives, macro in the sense it's higher time frame and broad in scope. The necessity for all that stuff while trading is next to nothing for me. But it's wonderful instigation for other people that are less informed to make decisions where they put their money in our reach and we can take it.
So just know that I am not looking at fundamental data. I never look at the raw data. I don't look at PPI number, CPI number. I don't give a shit what the FOMC rate announcement is.
I never care to look at it. I don't ever care to look at it. And everything that you need to know is inside these little candlesticks. That's everything that you need to know is right there, because what this is actually giving you is a real seismic graph of the market sentiment of less informed traders. That's what I see in price.
I see stupid people doing stupid things with their money. And I'm waiting for the opportunity where I see something where they're arm wrestling me. And if they're arm wrestling me and they're willing to put their money on the line, I'm going to take that money. I'm going to sleep well at night.
I'm not. going to care that they lost the money. I have no problem. I have no Christian qualms about it because they signed the same risk disclaimers that I signed when I opened up my accounts. So they are aware.
They know that there's a potential they're going to lose money. If they're foolish enough to think that they're going to be smart enough to get ahead of the marketplace and not front payroll, know exactly where it's going to go. And you can't enter a trade. You can't put a trade on. Great.
right as the 830 news driver enters the marketplace, try to put a trade in. You won't get filled or eventually you'll get filled at the most inopportune time with enormous slippage. That means where you're trying to get in at and where you actually get filled is way out of spec. So don't do it. Okay.
Just don't do it. So now let's go through the liquidity pools. So we're here.
We're essentially right here at. 815 so we look back we cleared this high so that's not a liquidity pool that high right there it's a wick but still high so we drop our level right there and this is a close proximity buy side liquidity pool meaning this is going to be your miner so you have to look for something above that one real simple top left and we'll go to Minor. All right. You ready?
Was that hard? All right. So going back from this area here at 815 or so, go to your nearest low.
That's not a low. I would consider that. This right here.
This is a minor sell side liquidity pool. So you can do this. All you're doing is looking for the closest one at a specific time right before a news event. So easy. Even a child can do it.
Speaking of children, I believe my son Caleb has passed his top step combine. So we'll be waiting for confirmation on that. Proud of you, son.
Proud of you. But now you're at the party. This was, this is the easy part.
Getting there is easy. Staying there and getting paid out. That's the challenge because you're going to wrestle with the emotions. All right, so they have minor sell side liquidity and minor buy side. Now you have to take a little bit broader look above that.
Okay, so we have this. Now look at what we have here. We have all this consolidation and all these little lows down here.
On a news report day like nonfarm payroll, they're going to go way outside, way outside what you think is reasonable. That's the problem with nonfarm payroll. It's so uncertain and they can go way out of spec in terms of average daily range. They can go outside of what you think it could go to.
Oh, it can't. I don't think it's going to go there. And that's exactly where it goes.
So chances are when you look at the chart and you think to yourself, I don't, I can't imagine it going there. Ask somebody that doesn't know how to trade to look at the chart. Okay.
And say, listen, if something really big happened and the market started to move around up or down really, really fast, where do you think it would go? Like pick a, pick a spot on there. Uncanny.
Uncanny. how that works but when we come into it we're looking for all these patterns these things and whatnot we we dilute that purity of looking through the lens of someone that doesn't know what's going on so i would not look at these consolidation lows as anything of importance this is the minor cell side liquidity pool but cut through all this consolidation go right to these relative equal lows so this right here is going to be primary cell side Primary is just the next logical level of liquidity below your near close proximity minor sell side liquidity, which is this low. And this is the minor buy side liquidity because it's close proximity to where we're at right now.
There's no other high because we've already cleared this one and we already cleared this individual candlestick there. So that means this is a minor buy side liquidity pool. Now, is that complicated?
No, it's really simple. So bottom left. And that's the business there. Now here is the primary buy side.
You think it's going to go just to fill in this. I'm going to submit to you that if it's going to go up here, it's going to run right on through to clear this. Why?
Because somebody's up here short and they think that they're safe because this is retail resistance. So this. Okay, I promise I've been on TradingView before.
I love how it always likes to make me look like I'm dealing with this app or platform, I should say. All right, so that is the primary. Primary buy-side liquidity. Okay, so now the next question is this.
From a narrative stance. And I am generally wrong when it comes to non-farm payroll. So I want to remind you of this, okay?
We have an obvious drop that was precipitous here going down into a weekly target we were looking for inside that buy side of balance, sell side efficiency, that blue rectangle. Go watch the first 18 minutes of Monday's live stream. If you do that, you'll see. where that blue box came from, why it was important, why I believed it was going to go down there as a weekly target. As it hit it, we haven't done much at all, have we?
That's pretty interesting, isn't it? So contrast that with how I told you to avoid Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this week trading. I told you where the market was going to go, told you why it was going to go down there, and it went there, and then it behaved like it did here. And even in this sloppy stuff, you saw I can trade.
I can trade in this mess. You're probably not going to do well doing it. So because we have somebody that's already made money and they're sitting in profit right now, non-farm payroll is a pain mechanism.
It's used many times to destabilize, to mess up current sentiment and or unseat individuals and then go the other direction. So what could happen today is we could see it do some wild run up here. knock these individuals out and into next week go lower and not even take out these lows. That's something that can happen. Or it could go down because this is closer to get to this sell side, trip people short, and then rake it all the way across the coals and then pump it all day long up to get to here and then go into the weekend where everybody thinks it's bullish.
And then we start going lower next week. Or it could just do a little fizzing, move around in here. and leave both pools of liquidity and i'm wrong and you're wrong and everybody else is wrong and these get beat up so a lot of scenarios here so how can one say this is the one i'm going to side with i i don't i don't have that visibility i don't have that but we're we're all going to watch it now okay so these levels are here and we're going to watch it on a five minute chart because it's a little bit more fun one minutes is too it's too much to see on a one-minute chart And here we go.
Already moved 100 handles and it hasn't even been 20 seconds. So the minor 5 side's been tagged. It'll be real easy for it to drop down to get the minor cell side still too.
It's a little lackluster here. I was expecting a little bit more punch having the non-farm payroll before the election this year. Okay, since it's slow, we will go down to a one-minute chart. So on this first candle at 830, the low came in at 20,064 and the high came in at 20,162. Okay, so 98, 98 handles in one minute.
Can you weather that if you're wrong? Can you weather that with your 15 contracts and your over leveraged funded account challenge or your funded account? Can you do that? because I'm going to remind you with common sense you can't. Okay so the first pool of liquidity they've taken is the miner buy side.
So we're going to see do we have any interest that go below and get that miner sell side. It's not important to look at the individual candlesticks. So don't complain like, come on, you're too zoomed down.
I want to see fair value gaps. That doesn't happen here. You're looking for the liquidity.
For the first 15 minutes, you want to see what stops they run for above and below the marketplace. So this is accomplishing the method. You have your own chart you can look at. I just want you to submit to the idea of watching where it wants to reach for stops. Do you feel like you missed anything so far?
Oh, I wish I would have. Do you feel any of that inside right now? Like, I wish I would have done this.
I wish I would have done that. Or if you had a position and you carried it into this, did you get stopped out? Are you making money right now?
If you carry the position in, are you willing to hold on to that trade still? I would like to see it dive down and get that minor sell stock from where it's at right now because they've already engaged the buy side. So since it's kind of slow for a typical non-farm payroll, what I'm looking at is this. I'm viewing it from this perspective. Let me get this out of the way.
The buy side, miner, has been hit first. There's miner sell side down here. Because it's a non-farm payroll event, you may look at these lows here and think, well, that's where my eyes would go, not mine, because this low is already lower than that one.
and this low is lower than that one. So I'm using this low and that low. That's what makes my liquidity pool the first minor sell side. But I see this as the minor buy stops have been acquired here. And if this is the first site I go to at 830, someone could be interested in accumulating positions in here.
And if they're running for buy stops with the idea that. at a later time today that it could be potentially lower it where would they want to off load those below this low here or we're going up here we're consolidating accumulating to run to take the primary buy stops i have nothing to frame that run on i wouldn't want to take that trade even though it looks wonderful in terms of the payout if you were to hold on to it I would not do that. And it's still 835. So we have nine minutes still. Now looking at it normally, this is what the chart would look like when you're watching it with me. What have you, uh, What have you seen here?
A fair value gap. Trades down until one minute before. We rally to take the minor buy side.
Okay. Watch the wick. if it clears this high it would need to run aggressively and not spend any more time coming back inside this shaded area if it's underlyingly bullish and it wants to run otherwise if it goes up and fails and goes back down and trades below this this comes this becomes rather a potential inversion fair value because normally where it's at now because it's a buy sign balance sell sign efficiency and the market price is here that means it would be normally expected to see it come down as a discount and if it's bullish this should offer a reason for the algorithm to offer that price and then reprice higher but if it goes down through that and comes back up that would be inversion then we can use that to do a case study for the sell side down here all right so where we're at right now it needs to continue it should not ever come back down in here Did you give yourself permission not to trade? I'm just reminding you. So far this is actually a very timid and tame NFP today.
I'm actually puzzled as to why they're uh... holding it back here and I was expecting a whole lot more fireworks and seeing that this is the last one before we get to our election. I don't think I'm saying that correctly. I gotta check my economic calendar. November 1st is Friday, so they could be using that for NFP.
I may have been ahead of myself saying that. Now, think about how... in like 15 minutes 15 minutes opening bell in the stock market if they are lifting price right at 830 all the way up to opening range, which is 9.30 to 10 o'clock in the morning. Reminder, 10 o'clock, I'm breaking the live session. I have something I have to take care of.
I can't escape it. So the public, if they keep sending this higher and they don't go down to the minor sell side at all, and we open up at 9.30, right here we're trading at $20,180 or so. We go to regular trading hours. we're down here so previous settlement is here and we're up here so that's a really large gap what happens if it manages to climb all the way up there we have an enormous gap so is it possible it's going to climb that much I don't think so. It would have been a lot more energetic by now if it was trying to get there.
It doesn't mean they can't still try to press it there throughout the day session and today and just leave everything as it is. Go into the weekend with a whole lot of lipstick on this pig and people see that on the weekend. They'll read Barron's.
They'll read all the investors business daily, Wall Street Journal, whatnot. And all the talking heads will say, well, the market's really strong because the. employment data was this that another thing and then next week you know we start seeing underlying weakness i'm not trying to pick the top i'm just saying that i'm not i'm not trying to pick the top but i'm also not trying to be a permable either because we're in that really weird um place technically and seasonally for the market to do something pretty crazy.
And we have all these looming false flags that could pop off at any time. And I suspect next week we're probably going to have one. So there's some chicken little stuff over here.
The fair value gap in here, that's one that you want to have on your chart. Note that one. but this one here right on the jump of non-farm payroll because it was the candle that starts this big carnival ride if it comes back below this this is the one i'd like to see definitely as a inversion fairway guy to run down to here but nothing in here has given me any reason to be a buyer or seller yet now as a young man i would look at this and say wow you know, I could have went long right before that happened. And I could be up almost 120 handles or so.
And I would literally convince myself that I could find these setups beforehand. And every single time I tried, regret. The times that was right, it would stop me out. And then it would run where I wanted to go.
So it's something that I mentioned many times that an opportunity in the wrong conditions, an opportunity is a cleverly disguised impossibility. And that's what I want you to subscribe to in terms of expecting setups before nonfarm payroll, before 830 nonfarm payroll Fridays. Hold no bias.
Hold no. Expectation over price. Allow price to show you what it has after. And we have one more minute and 15 seconds and then we can start looking for what's available for price.
This is the best orange juice I've ever had. Wow. You know sometimes you get a glass of orange juice and it's like basically battery acid. and doesn't taste like anything but acid. The last batch of this we had was kind of like that and this one here is very pleasant.
Sometimes you get good oranges and sometimes you don't. Orange juice, it's just... For a long time I wouldn't drink it.
Back in the 90's I got my first slap trading orange juice futures in the option market. First trade like that and I lost half my money. Alright, 10 seconds. all right now it's been 15 minutes after the non-farm payroll release so you want to go through your charts and see what is left going back through price here on a one-minute chart okay nothing really to speak of there you have to go to a five-minute chart i mentioned this down here so i will already have this on the chart in the event that it does trade here my interest in that is not to see it come down for a buy i'm not looking at it like that if it goes down there i want to see it trade down through it come back up treat it as an inversion fair value gap to ride to minor sell side that's where my interest lays right now i'm not arguing and i'm not fighting what it's doing here I'm just not interested because right now it's in an area where it's no trade for me. It's straight from 830 right on up.
So what is this to me? In my mind, it's a Judas swing. I'm looking at this as bait.
I'm looking at it as John Q Public. He just got done reading a couple books, Elliott Wave, Pitchforks, Dow Theory, Wyckoff. he's watching some supply and demand videos and he's looking at this and he's thinking wow this is a bullish market like this is this is clearly going up so they're going to look at indicators they're going to plot their little moving averages they're going to put pivot numbers on they're going to look for anything and everything they get in this to go up and the other ones that are just looking at this They're just simply going to put a buy stop right above this candlestick here.
And if it goes up there, they're going to get tripped and go long. So they're just looking for any excuse to get into the market long. From this candle at $830, that low to this high has been one straight direction. No stop run. No candlestick taking out any trailed.
sell stops for anyone that we long because no one could get along. So all of this is just building in a premium ahead of the 930 opening bell there. And what I'm anticipating is I want to see us inside that 30 minute interval of time.
I want to see some reason why during this 30 minutes, but it could happen before, I want to see it trade down into this. Let's leave it as it was. Minor sell side under here. I have the pups kennel in there next to me and if I leave the room because my wife's out shopping right now I can't I can't live stream because they'll be howling and barking and they'll distract me So you're gonna hear them moving around there trying to still get my attention, but uh I see this as just basically pumping it up, providing a premium. Now, here's where I could be wrong, and I'm completely content with being wrong.
They could just keep pushing this higher, higher, higher, higher, higher to run to this as the daily objective. And that's it. That's the objective. I will look at something inside of the 930 to 10 o'clock opening range. And C, I trust that if it doesn't get there before then, and it is in fact trying to get up there, between these two time points, I have confidence that I would see something in there that would afford me an entry idea that would deliver from there up to there.
If this is in fact what's going to happen, where I have to let go of the marketplace and potentially miss a move is waiting for the opening bell. because it could just keep on going up there. And it's a move that I just simply missed. And it's okay. I don't trade every fluctuation.
The other day when we were doing, I was teaching you how to trade volatility pinball, which is just a execution drill, just conditioning yourself, taking every single fair value gap, every single one of them and running for the nearby high or relative equal high or the nearby low or relative equal low. And just doing it all session long. until you get around 10 to 15. Or if you've got time to sit in front of the charts all day long, take a couple of breaks throughout the day, get some circulation in your legs and whatnot, do as much as you can and have fun with it.
And you watched, let's just say that that was a $10,000 account and trading with one contract. That's 38% that was posted doing just the drill. So there's lots of setups that are available. The NASDAQ is going to move over 650 handles today.
It's going to move over 800 handles today. It's going to move a thousand handles today. Before it closes, it's going to move that much.
Now to the novice, the neophyte, they hear this is going to go up a thousand handles. And it's already people typing up stuff, going in their personal messages, direct messages. ICT is saying it's going to move a thousand handles today. Up.
I didn't say that. Others are going to say, ICT said NASDAQ is going to drop a thousand handles today. I didn't say that either.
I said NASDAQ is going to move a thousand handles today before it closes. Don't believe me? Be long when it does a 30 handle retracement lower. Get squeezed out. Close the trade.
Go short thinking that's where it's going to go. And then ride a... move that goes up for 50 handles. We're already almost at 100 handles.
And then it's going to do this back and forth, back and forth all afternoon on a one minute chart, on a less than one minute chart that's happening all day long. So a thousand handles is easy every single day, even in small range days. So there's never a short supply of opportunities. But there is a very short supply of high probability, high yield, low risk setups in a day. Those are not ample.
There is an ample supply of that. So you have to be a little more selective. And on a day like this, you have to submit that you're going to probably miss a move.
I'm not going to chase a day like this. You've seen, I think, two times now since we did 2024's mentorship, since I started teaching with these principles, you've watched me sit in a live stream and explain how if it keeps going up, it's going to go without me and it's okay. And I have no anxiety.
I have no shame. I don't have any kind of regret. I don't feel like I don't know what I'm doing. I'm not thinking that, you know, oh, the viewers of this stream are going to think my concepts don't work. I don't think that at all.
I mean, it doesn't matter because even when I do trade them and I'm pushing the button and it works, some people will still say they don't work. It just happens that I got lucky that day, right? But moves like this, where it's just one-sided, it just keeps going, going, going, going. To me, I'm not trading them and it's okay because this isn't the only setup.
This isn't the only price run for today. It just means that this is the one that everybody else is going to focus on. And they're going to build a case around whether or not they're a good trader or anyone that doesn't take that trade and didn't take it with them. They're not good. Or if you didn't take this trade, you're a loser.
If you didn't get along in this, you're a fool. Something to that effect. Where I'm sitting here trying to be a voice of reason and tell you there's nothing in here that I would have been along on. Nothing. Because the risk is too...
prevalent And I don't want to just take risks just for the sake of saying I got in on non-farm payroll, which is what most new traders want to do. They want to be able to say like the badge, like you're all part of the Boy Scouts and you get that little badge, that little merit badge. It says I survived non-farm payroll.
I lost my ass and an arm and a leg, but I survived non-farm payroll. No thanks. That's not what I want to do. I'm not trying to cultivate that as in. an aspiration for any of my students.
I want you to say, you know what? This is an interesting price delivery. I'm thankful I'm not part of it because I wouldn't be able to trust where the stop loss would be. Because have you considered that?
Where would your stop loss be? Say you wanted to chase this and go long. Where are you going to place a stop loss that you can trust that it's most likely not going to hit it? I don't have one that I could hang my hat on and say, yeah, I feel confident.
I feel... fairly confident that the market couldn't retrace down to get my sell stop based on this that I got. It's nothing that I can do that with here because this is a one shot rate from the opening at 830. And it's just gravitating towards where I said, the traders that are holding the profitable positions. Let's go back out for a moment. Remember I was saying to you, most of you that see this big sell sign of balance, buy sign of efficiency, some of you were thinking when we were here that it's going to go up just to go in there.
And I said, if they're going to go there, they're not going to be content with just going there. They're going to go to where the positions are protected. What positions?
Anyone that was fortunate enough, but not smart enough, they have already gotten out of their short. They're entering inside this area. Anywhere in here.
Somebody, we don't need to know their name, we don't need to know their social security number, where their geographic location is on the spinning globe. It's not a flat Earth, by the way. The consolidation in here, we have to look at someone went short.
So to be short and hold the position with a stop loss, it's going to be at least a very minimum above this high. And because this high is slightly lower than that one, this means this is what? High probability, relative equal, high.
So it's a prime candidate for it to be what? Taken. So don't subscribe just merely because there's an inefficiency here and think that well, this is it. You know, we don't have to worry about anything else except for it going up to here.
Because it's already done that. I subscribed to the idea at the beginning of the stream that if it's gonna go here, Why not just go up here where the actual orders are because this isn't going to have a lot of orders Just trading back up to that candlesticks low That's not a large pool of orders the large pool of orders is resting at this high in this high in this general proximity right here watch And that band right there, that's where the actual buy stops are. They're not at the top of the sell side of balance, buy side of efficiency.
The delivery to price is just being offered there for the purpose and mechanism of efficient delivery. It's not that there's a specific number of important buy stops there. The algorithm is just simply trading there.
So the pools of liquidity are absolutely. at the highs and the lows. Okay. I had someone send me a comment and said, are there larger pools of liquidity that are not above old highs or not below old lows?
No, there are not. The largest pools of liquidity are always absolutely above old highs and that's buy side or buy stops or below old lows. And that's sell stops or sell side.
Anything that anybody tells you outside of that is great. A bullshit. Okay.
They're all trying to twist something and create some kind of new theory, some new science. And they're just tossing things against the wall and seeing what sticks. And if they can get a filing that starts having some view about some new thing, that will give them traction. And then they have a crowd, and they can milk that crowd for money.
So, again, the market goes up just to reprice for the purpose of efficiently delivering what? The counter. delivery to this down move efficient market delivery.
is that it needs to create a candlestick that does this. Down-closed candle, for me, that's a black candle. And a green candle is a bullish candle on my charts.
So it would be like this. It would deliver. in the future, some kind of a delivery where price is being offered going back up. We've seen that here, but that's not the end of the story. You got to think why, why would it want to even go up here in the first place?
Because it had an efficiency. It was only offering sell side delivery. That means movement lower.
So if it's going to go lower and the algorithm does two things, it reprices to engage liquidity. It doesn't know how many stops are above an old high. It does not know how many stops are below an old low. But where there are inefficiencies, where it's just one single candlestick that makes a range in and of itself like an island, this one single candle before it, this candle where that line is attached to it, this candlestick's low and this candlestick's high. This single candle has an inefficiency.
it was sell side delivery but it's inefficient in buy side it means it hasn't offered price inside the time listen folks the time between this candle's high that candle's low the interval of time needs to be rebalanced with price so price will go higher on the buy side delivery it means over overlapping the same price range between this candle's low, this candle's high, you are expecting in the future a pass right back up over top of the single candle. And once it does that and it touches this candle's low, this has been efficiently delivered. That is not a balanced price range.
It just means it's been efficiently delivered. So back to the discussion about why that's simply not enough. The market going into this area and offering efficient price and not taking a ride into these stops, to me, would be a rather interesting observation today because this is where the actual orders are. There are no orders, essentially, that are outnumbering, let's say it that way, the actual liquidity that rests in these highs.
The market driven down into that target we had in the blue shaded area, it's the weekly buy sign and balance sell sign efficiency. It delivered that and it delivered it quickly and then we did not make anything lower. So the individuals that were sitting with the largest form of profit that's still open if they're holding the shorts, their stop loss orders are here. Not all of them, most of them have already been stopped out with this return back to that high, this spike. taking out that high and then obviously the non-farm payroll today took out that high but we're above this inefficiency now right here so it goes without saying that non-farm payroll is used to disrupt what's already in play what's in play the shorts from here now it could have very easily from here drop down disrupted these and then made this the daily run.
I would have rather seen that to be honest with you. But as it is, we just started right at 830 and just started running right for this inefficiency. It's no longer inefficient now. It's been efficiently delivered. It is not a balanced price range yet.
So we still have to submit to the idea that they're going to take us up into here. So it can keep us real close to where the inefficiency high of the SIBI. And the SIBI is this. Let me draw it out in case there are new people here. This is the inefficiency.
And you can see how we already painted right over top. of this individual candlestick that one right here and then we have all of this delivery right back over top of it you see that this is usually seen with one single candle but in here it took two it's fine whatever it took time-wise to make this sibby you're always anticipating price to do the same thing time-wise so between the interval of this candlestick's high low to this candlestick's high that same one single candle you're always anticipating the delivery to be the same type of delivery on the other side so that tells it tells you a whole lot teaches you what speed and magnitude whenever you see me talk about when i'm in a live stream or if i'm in a live execution and i'm recording the trade and i'm annotating by typing out what i think and i'll say okay i expect to see speed in distance or speed and magnitude. I want to see speed.
I want to see large candles now. It's underneath this idea where it's overlapping something that's inefficient. So if the inefficiency was manifested in the sense that it's been delivered to the sell side quickly and sudden, it goes without saying that you should see buy side driven quickly to reprice over top of this.
Now that's not always the same because sometimes you'll see that the market will go up a little bit and come back down, go up a little bit and come back down, go up a little bit and come back down, go up a little bit and come back down and just keeps grinding like that. That's high resistance inside an inefficiency. Those are the times where you're going to get smacked around and it's just they're holding it back.
Because in normal delivery, it should be single pass inefficient, single pass quickly and delivered. But if you ever see inside of an inefficiency like this and it goes up in a little sputtering, a little bit of move back and forth, back and forth, that's a manual intervention as well. Why? Because we're inside of an inefficiency or a gap and price is doing what? It's being held back, stagnant, even though it's still pricing over and over and over and higher highs.
Just realize that you're going to be in a trade that's going to have a whole lot more retracements. So if you're long, and say it's not non-form payroll, you should not be trying to chase or trail your stop loss up. Just lock in, cover costs, give yourself something that's a nice dinner out in case you get stopped out, and just let it go.
It's hard to hold those types of trades. It really is. But you just got to do it that way. Otherwise, you're going to be more prone to being stopped out.
So We're not subscribing. I'm not trying to tell you to subscribe to the idea just because we go here. We're done because we've already done what? We've went above it.
So this is where the actual orders are right here. If you have like book map or if you have something similar, I know Matt Cohort has something he does. It's along the same lines. It's like a liquidity map or whatever. If you use that, take a look at it and take a look at.
the highs here and here and start watching what those price levels have on those types of tools. I'm saying before we had the opening at 830 there that this was minor and this is primary. And I also stated that who's in profit right now at the time of 830?
The shorts are. That's the largest move lower. We haven't made new ground lower than that.
We've consolidated. So don't just think that we're going up here to rebalance this. If we're going up here, I'm going to submit to the idea that they're going up there to cannibalize these position holders that are short, that have their stop losses here. And who would have stops up there? Deeper pockets than you and I.
Large institutions, large institutional investors. They're not in the business of trailing their stop loss. They don't look at, okay, it's dropped down 10 handles.
Let me move my stop to break even. That's not what they're doing. So they're going to hold onto positions with stops way outside the range of, in their view, it's just static price action. They don't want to get chopped up in the normal delivery of volatility.
So when they put their positions on, they leave their core protective stops above their entry. So that way they're not needing to have an analyst or a trade manager babysitting every fluctuation over price because they're managing billions of dollars. You're worrying about your one lot, your micro lot, on a funded account where if you lose, you lost the activation fee or whatever it is that they make you pay. In this case, they stand to lose billions of dollars, millions of dollars at the minimum, right?
So my eye is trying to look for evidence that it's going to continue to drive to here. And we're close to the opening bell. We're almost at 10 minutes after, so we have 20 minutes or so away. Being right here, they could use the opening range, the first 30 minutes, to drive up into this liquidity here and then take into account what?
What's going to be here when we look at regular trading hours? An enormous gap. Remember, we're sitting right here above this inefficiency.
Price is sitting right there in electronic trading hours. And this is previous day's settlement price down here. So we have a very large gap.
So if we're going to be in close proximity to those relative equal highs, which is the primary buy side, which you can't see it here, notice that, but we're sitting right here based on actual electronic trading hours. Right now, the chart shows regular trading hours. So this is how we determine what our gap is, our opening range gap. Looking at electronic trading hours, we're sitting right here at the top of it. So Is it unreasonable to anticipate them keeping price in this general area and then running it as a Judas swing on regular trading hours?
So in other words, let me show it to you like this. Right now, we see prices sitting essentially right here. It's the first time with crayons, folks. I'm sorry.
the price right now electronic trading hours is there and this line even though you don't see the relative equal highs because it's booked on electronic trading hours this level we could see it do this inside a regular trading hours like this we could see it deliver a run up to here then let's assume and i'm not saying this is the case but let's assume that this is the gap And we take the quadrants off and we're just going to look at the trying to find the uh, there it is I gotta pick some ugly color. That's the mid mid gap that yellow line So assuming that we opened here and we we're not opening there because we still have several minutes before it actually opens at 9 30 but just please devil's advocate say it opens at this price right here and where we had the previous settlement price down here at 414 yesterday this is mid gap so it could open trade up bust out the relative equal highs in electronic trading hours that's this so open here rally up disrupt the stops accumulate those stops Then drop down to mid gap right there. And then we'll see if it wants to go low or not.
Notice that it's also, when it goes to mid gap, it's basically coming to the high of all this consolidation. It's going to take a real move to get through all this. Not to say it can't, but that's what I see in price right now and the potential scenario that may unfold based on what I see here. I don't think they're going to let these individuals off the hook. I think that's the people in play.
And if you go back and listen to the beginning of the stream, I was mentioning that non-farm payroll, it's a disruptive event. It attacks anyone that has the present profitable sentiment. That's these individuals that are short up here. And look how close we are to them.
And then you have the normal volatility in the first 30 minutes of trading at 930 to 10 o'clock. It's not unreasonable to anticipate them to pump it up in other handles. to knock these individuals out and then the real interesting study is what do we do then because we have a huge gap that 70 of time number might not be the first 30 minutes if it goes down here at all today it might take a little bit more time to get down here so just intermusings how i internalize what i'm expecting how i would look at it today and we'll get this business off here If that was confusing to you, just know that it's not that difficult. But toggling between electronic trading hours, electronic trading hours is at 6 p.m.
to 5 p.m and then regular trading hours is 9 30 a.m all all local time new york 9 30 a.m to 4 14 p.m and the opening range gap is always defined by regular trading hours which is this and you see we have an enormous gap in the making So opening range, I'm anticipating maybe a little bit of a drop down. Get people thinking, oh yeah, it's selling off because it filled in this gap. It's liquidity void, which it's not.
There was trading in here, so it's not a liquidity void. But the small little drop down and then run it right up into here. That'll get the street money one to chase it even more.
Buying, And then when it gets into here, smart money could sell short against all these buy stops. That'll become a flood of liquidity for willing buyers at a high price. Willing buyers at a higher price where smart money could use that to sell to them. And then they could ride down into a gap closure. Half the gap, three quarters of the gap.
If it completely wipes out and goes down, I mean, anything can happen. Anything can happen. So just know that that's what non-farm payroll, it complicates the decision making.
So you have to really know a lot more than you think you should to navigate it well. Now contrast everything I just said here versus when we're looking at a normal any run in the middle day where we have a small little gap. OK, this is where the gap is. Wait for the first.
present the fair value gap it's pretty straightforward the comments are basically saying 2024 mentorship has made everything come together connected the dots i can see this now i can anticipate it it's it's it's bridged all these gaps in my understanding and now you're finding setups that are much more consistent and you're comfortable that's the main thing you're comfortable you're not fearful you're not anxious and you're very calm when you're in the trades now have you noticed that that's what mentorship is like that's learning some thing from someone that knows what they're doing and the things that work in the marketplace not contrived things not conjecture things things that are actually based and rooted on the truth now contrast all those things with what i just outlined here for non-profit hero it's like wow this is a lot exactly so if you're a brand new student can you see how this could quickly drown you it's difficult and it's difficult for me i ain't gonna lie i'm gonna tell you straight up These are very, very challenging conditions because I can see multiple scenarios that could very easily be used. Whereas any other given day, I can see how, okay, yeah, they obviously pumped us into a premium or large opening gap. It's going to go 70% likely back to mid-gap in the first 30 minutes.
That's your first initial bias. So you can submit to that idea. If there's a scalp, you can take that.
But once it gets to the mid-gap, then we have to determine, does it want to continue in the direction of the gap? Or... is it a complete gap closure and then once it closes the gap does it go below the gap if it's a prime premium gap then use the bottom of the gap as resistance or a premium and then sell off and do a multiple of that opening range gap of two to three standard deviations so your understanding is gradually being increased caleb but you have to have the willingness to say i'm not interested in this day dad that's the answer i'm looking for from you That is the answer that I want to hear from you. I want to hear to say, you know what?
I can do without it. And that's maturity. That's a hard thing to sell to a new trader, new student, because they see these big candles and it invites them like a candy bar.
Like, I want that. I want that. I'm not satisfied with a consistent 25 to 30 handles every single day.
I'm not satisfied with that. I want to take the chance and the risk is not that imperative to me. as a deterrent to not want to trade this day that that's the usual dynamic in the mind of a new trader because they chase the excitement around it they think they actually believe they can be in this move beforehand and be right enough times and survive it and it's it's not the case it's not the case man so we're going to see here in about 10 minutes how the market uses this information in these next few minutes i'm going to talk about asia When we look at the daily ranges, okay, and I'm going to take our attention away from all the markups here. I'm going to delete them, and we'll come back to it in a second.
We'll come back to it about three minutes before the opening bell. But we're going to remove the drawings and go to a daily chart. I want you to think about how when the market doesn't have an economic calendar event that's a medium or high impact news driver during the 8.30 to 10 o'clock. Crude oil inventories usually come in around 10.30. They're not really all that impactful to indices and equities.
That's really not a factor. But usually you'll have a 10 o'clock news driver. There'll be a 945 news driver.
There'll be a 930. There'll be a 830 or an 845 news driver. Maybe a 915 something will come out that somebody's speaking a speech or whatnot. Usually anywhere between 830 and 10 o'clock.
That's like your time when some kind of an external stimulus will come into the marketplace and be used as a smoke screen to mask what the... market makers are doing whether algorithmically or manual intervene. Let's assume that there's nothing on the economic counter going into the next morning.
Okay, and also let's assume that in the last hour of trading the market trades down and cleans up a pool of liquidity below relative equal lows or below a significant low that's been in the charts for several days. During the last hour, they trade down, say, when the market's bullish. It does this in the last hour. So it engages the sell side below an old low or relative equal lows that's been in the market for a few days.
But they stop it right at the market close once that sell side's been taken. That is usually a wonderful time to anticipate at 6 p.m. when the market starts trading again because at 5 p.m., assuming... We're not on a Friday. At 6 p.m., they'll start the new electronic trading hours session.
Wait until around 6.50 to 7.10, and you can start looking for reasons to be long then and look for setups to trade into the 10 o'clock hour. Not that they all last that long, but that's the usual protocol I use. when i'm trading asia with a high degree of probability that you're going to have a nice asian range that last hour of trading it's got to upset some kind of liquidity and then stay there into the close it cannot go down below a relative equal low or singular low and then start rallying in the last hour that doesn't give you the same high probability because what is actually happening is in those instances the last hour is being implemented for smart money to accumulate the sell stops and they're just holding it there and you'll see live streamers that are expecting a lot more protracted move lower when then all they're doing is they're just keeping price there and they're letting the last flow of orders coming in which is a large influx they're just scooping them all up buying accumulating and then they know that in asia after the first 50 minutes of trading the algorithms macro will start spooling price And then it'll tell them that they're on side or off side. And then the market, when it starts to rally, then they take every single discount array to accumulate more long positions going into the 10 o'clock hour.
So if you look at some of the better days where Asia has had really nice price runs, study by contrast the last hour of trading in the index. And you'll see clues that you didn't see there before. That is the largest degree of probability. for trading the Asian session where you know it's going to be a good day to trade. It does not mean every single Asian session is a good trading opportunity.
It's not. And I've said this ad nauseum, but the protocol I use is it has to be a day where there isn't going to be any kind of high impact news drivers or medium impact news drivers, no speeches, no nothing in the economic calendar between 8.30 and 10 o'clock the next New York session. Because there's an absence of that, they're going to use many times the Asian session. as the low of the day when you're bullish or the high of the day when you're bearish.
And if you look at the daily chart here, you can toggle back and forth and you can see how the days close and open are real close to one another. Not all the time, depending on if you're looking at how your chart's showing the settlement. But generally, you're seeing the bodies are very close to what the previous bodies closed or opened that previously. So that indicates there's something going on, but not always is it the low of the day. You see how close we are in proximity here between the previous close and where we opened, but we had all of this and we had this in here.
So you have to filter out all that. How do you do that? By focusing on the sessions. Asia, seven o'clock.
to nine that's your sweet spot that's your that's your little working area okay and it could it can extend its price runs to 10 o'clock but usually when we get into 10 o'clock just square your positions or if you're trading with the pretense that it's going to be a continuation on the daily chart and you want to capture a large range and there's no economic news medium impact or high impact or speeches at 8 30 to 10 o'clock the next new york session take some profit off at 10 o'clock but leave a runner some form of position still on it and you'll see many times that asia will start rallying up and it'll have this uncharacteristic movement it's like where did this come from where did this come from a couple weeks back i bought radio and market on clothes and it was doing very similar things i did this i showed this with my private students and asia just kept on going higher higher higher higher and it looked very similar to what we've seen so far on this. It was just doing something like this. And it's like, everybody was sending me comments in the videos. They were sending me emails.
What's going on Asia? What happened in Asia? And what I just explained to you is what happens.
That's what happens. The smart money uses the market on close to enter. And then they wait for Asia to start.
And then at 650 to 710, that first macro, it better start sending price. in direction higher if they're long. And as it does that, every single time it comes back down to a short-term discount, they're accumulating more.
And what will happen is Asia will run all the way up into midnight. Midnight, you'll have small little retracement, but then London just keeps on powering up or it'll consolidate all through a messy London. And Asia was the real run. London is consolidation.
And then in New York, you get another stage of what was happening in Asia. That's the first measured move. And then you'll see the same thing repeated during the New York session. And you'll be up 700, 500 handles on the day based on 6 p.m.'s previous electronic trading hours opening price to whatever the high of the day is that's formed in New York. So as a reminder, that's not an everyday occurrence.
That's not something that tells you that you have a good trading session in Asia like that all the time. But there are opportunities that you can trade Asia between 650. to 10 o'clock because 650 is when the first macro starts to spool and the 750 to 810 in my opinion is better because sometimes they can get a delayed start so if there is no obvious run on price at the 650 to 710 macro in asia the odds of the 750 to 810 macro presenting something really nice for asia even if it is going to be a high impact or news impact session in the New York session later on, you'll still have a really nice opportunity to trade in Asia. It doesn't mean you're going to get 100 handles, but you can get anywhere between 25 and 40 handles in Asia when it's like that. When the 650, the 710 macro is silent, it's sitting still.
The 750 to 810 macro in Asia is generally a nice 20 to 40 handle run. Don't take my word for it. Go back and look at your charts and see it. And don't just look at the last two weeks and think you have something figured out.
Okay. Again, I got comments about some guy who didn't. systems run on the probabilities of the opening range gap not filling or I'm sorry filling 7% of time in the first 30 minutes I have data going back 40 years so I don't know what your data is but I have four decades of data on it so your data is probably skewed meaning you don't have the full picture and I wouldn't just toss that number out there I'm not literally pulling out of my ass to sound intelligent it's based on my own Studies my own observations. I've been watching the markets for 32 years.
I have data. I purchased data Before I started trading the markets were trading so I had to buy data because I wanted to back test how far How far back these observations I was making exist in price action So when I tell you the opening range gaps, these were things that I was dealing with in a new currency futures. Let's do this Go back in, put all the lipstick back on, control zing.
All right, so we are sitting with a very large opening range gap. There we are. And let's look at this on a one-minute chart.
So there is the Registrating Hours Settlement. to opening price that's mid gap and now we can go back into electronic trading hours actually get that price 111 3 quarters. Okay, so here is mid gap inside of opening range These are the days where I'd like to see it not go to mid gap yet, but in fact give this initial drop down here to get traders thinking it's going to go lower and then rally it higher and go for the obvious buy side because if it comes all the way down to mid gap and to climb from there all the way up here then i'm i'm convinced at that time that we won't just go here to go back down it's going to go here and consolidate accumulate more and go higher even still if it goes down to the big gap then comes all the way back up here that is not some kind of a run for turtle suit scenario to go lower that would be indicative of this is if things going to go higher a lot higher this box is not an inefficiency remember i was showing you the liquidity being taken on that minor buy side so we take that off it's going to confuse you I was looking at thinking myself what the hell did I draw that for? Now you know why I don't like to draw things on my chart.
I trade naked and I look at all the levels here numerically in a notepad form. So I'm constantly getting a different perspective not just getting lost in the candlesticks as some people might say. I'm looking at the data based on pd arrays on a notepad and I'm thinking about what I expect to see in price. I'm not putting lipstick on a chart and if I'm throwing things on my chart like this while I'm teaching It's very distracting to me because it's something I have to, whether I want to do it or not, subconsciously, I'm always trying to think, did I, what did I put that in?
Like the other day I had something on there and it was just the rectangle that I had started and because I lost where I let go of it on here. it appeared on a lower time frame chart but it wasn't something that was really annotating or drawing any special attention to anything that's what i want to see that type of thing drop down and say nope let's rip it higher so i want to see some kind of a fair value gap form as it runs back up into the high of that sibby which is this red shaded area remember that's an efficiency we were talking about all morning how this is repricing back over top of it we've already had multiple candles laid on top of it. This move here could be maybe an initial Judas swing. Short sellers are trying to trade the gap closure.
Even my studies with the half gap, they might be trying to do that too. I don't want to see that right now. I want to see it rally and make an attempt to unseat these individuals because that stays true to the form of what non-farm payroll really is.
That's the nature of non-farm payroll. It's to disrupt those who are right now profitable. And that's the shorts from Tuesday. If you had a stop loss up here and you're holding your short, you've seen a lot of ground lost on your position.
Would you feel confident that the market is going to reach all the way up there to get you? Non-farm payroll is. boogeyman trading basically who can they get and are you going to get got one of the best observations i've noticed is that many of you some of you actually were very critical a lot in the comments but you were doing it in a respectful manner so i didn't i didn't hide you from the channel Which means that I will never see your comment, but you think I can. You'll be able to see your comment on the YouTube channel.
Your post will be the only one you see, but I won't ever. I won't be able to see it. If you're rude, if you say something stupid, you only get one chance to do that.
And then I basically it's a little option for a channel holder or owner. If someone leaves a comment, I can delete the comment. And you'll see it deleted. If I did that, I don't delete comments.
I look at removing you from the channel, meaning you'll be able to leave your comments. You'll be able to talk to yourself. I won't ever see your comment.
No one else sees your comment either. But some of them in the past have been critical, but still respectful saying, listen, you know, I don't see any merit in these things. I can see that you're trading and doing executions with them. I'm watching this gap right here, by the way.
They make the observation saying, while I see your executions, I don't see any merit in the concepts themselves. So, which leads me to believe that these are cherry-picked scenarios. So, I can appreciate a comment like that, but then when we come out here and you're live streaming and I'm explaining what I think is going to happen in price. And you've seen some executions now and the logic behind them using all the logic that I've taught and using that logic against itself and seeing how it fails.
So one of the wonderful things I've had in the last few months, more specifically the last two weeks, these live streams and the lectures I've given have brought a lot of clarity to a lot of you. And the points that are repeating are I'm a whole lot more calmer watching price now, whereas I was not interested in just looking at price. I wanted to be demoing at least. We're trying to pass a funded account challenge.
And now the idea of watching price with the intent to understand it more, somehow I bridged the gap with a lot of you. And I'm very thankful for that as being a teacher, as a mentor. That's a very hard barrier to breach with teachers.
Doing some kind of breakthrough for students to say, okay, I trust this person teaching me now. I trust this person, so I'm going to submit to the things they ask me to do. And I'm seeing a lot of feedback like that now, and it's really encouraging as a teacher to see that because I wear my heart on my sleeve as a teacher.
Like, whether you paid me in the past or whether you're watching for free and you really don't really appreciate much of what you're getting, you just want to come here and just... Sample whatever you think is entertainment or Maybe you're running a mentorship and you're sampling things, taking things and saying, well, I'll add this to my next teaching. I'll do this and I'll do that. That to me is not, you're not a student of mine.
You're a parasite. But the students that are here because they're trying to learn how to do this and be independent from me, that's who I'm teaching. That's the target audience.
If it's not my sons, it's the alternative is these individuals that are generally trying to make an effort to learn how to do it. And they're being serious about it. They're taking it serious.
And that means they're doing these lab experiments of going in and engaging price on every fair value gap that forms and looking for a run into the nearby liquidity. And the feedback I'm getting from that, because now they're doing that. They're using their demo account properly now.
They're not in here trying to over-leverage this show somebody on social media. Look what I made. When you don't have any idea why that panned out and why is it going to fail the next time you try it. The descriptions that everyone's leaving about the aha moments, the epiphanies, these leaps and understanding and excitement about what they're learning, that's the part that I love.
That's the energy I feed off of. If I can be called a vampire, I'm living off the energy vicariously by all of you sharing those moments because that supercharges me, because I know what it was like for me. I know exactly what that feels like.
And I've lost that. Because nothing's new to me anymore. And when I see my students share that, and I can feel the vibrations of their excitement and their passion being stirred up about what they're learning. And I can tell they're spending time in the charts because their remarks are wordy. They're very descriptive.
They're trying to do the best to find words to describe how they feel. And I already know what you feel. I already know.
Trust me, I know what that feels like. And it's very hard to describe it. Even though you know that you tried very hard to describe how exciting it is for you right now, because you're seeing things happen in the chart, and you're looking over your shoulder thinking, how is this possible? I can see this. And just by watching these videos and this mentorship, why is this guy doing this for free?
Am I really allowed to know this? That's the... That's the wonderful feeling of being informed money now.
You're in a small minority group right now. Even though smart money concepts, SMC, that's my stuff. That's in a lot of people's mouths right now. A lot of people using those terms don't know what they're doing. And a lot of them are selling content, selling lectures and whatnot.
And they're going around pretending to be informed money when they're not. They're only informed as much as the replay button will show or what the hindsight chart movement has shown. And you're learning how to do it independent from me.
And that's power. That's independence. That is maturity.
And it's also something that when you see things get expensive, and we're all seeing that, you won't fear. Okay. You can't control inflation.
You can't control the higher price of this stuff. But you do have a skill that you're growing that can outpace inflation, even hyperinflation. Hyperinflation, costly things and stuff like that, nobody wants to have it.
I have lots of money and I still get pissed off that they're doing what they're doing with the cost of things. Because I know what it feels like when I'm spending money for a month's worth of groceries and I'm supporting other family members. That's a lot of money in the hands of someone that works a regular job.
That's a lot of money. I don't know how they're doing it. I don't know how anybody else is doing it. But you are learning a skill that you can compound a little bit of money into a secondary income revenue stream that could potentially grow to something that makes you millions of dollars.
And when you have millions of dollars at disposal. where you can just use it for whatever you want, you sleep a little bit easier at night. I'm not saying money should be your God or your safety net, but it's a tool. It's an absolute tool.
But if you don't have the ability to make money, and if you don't have the ability and the understanding and the mindset that you can repetitively go out and make more new money, and you're not limited how much you can make. Who says you can't make $100,000 in the month of December? Who says you can't? Who could convince you that you couldn't? No one could convince me I couldn't.
No one convinced my top tier students that they can't. So when you have that and you try to explain to other people that can't do it, it sounds arrogant. It sounds narcissistic when it's just that that's them telling you the truth. They have an ability that they trust in.
They have a skill set that they know that they can tap into and it's going to serve them in the future. Hey. Kaden, relax.
All right, so, so far, opening range has been pretty much lackluster. But the main takeaway is that as a mentor teaching it, I'm happy to see people saying, I am calm. I'm not in a rush to push the button anymore. I'm observing what I'm doing. And here's the main thing that is I've noticed.
A lot of individuals are now passing their funded account combines in all of the other prop firms, like not just one prop firm, like all of them. And they're saying what I've learned just in the last nine, eight weeks or whatever has allowed me to be calm about my executions, know what I'm looking for. And I used to be scared when I put a trade on.
I'd be afraid I was going to blow the combine or blow the funded account. And I'm getting payouts now. That's the other thing.
Combines being passed and payouts. I've not seen such a large influx before, larger than I have now in the last two months. Because people are, they're buckling down and saying, you know what?
I'm treating it like a business. I'm not treating it like online casino poker and stuff like that. You're not gambling now.
Something has happened, some kind of shift in your paradigm. has caused you to look at things differently now. And I don't know what it is specifically, because I've always been teaching like this.
And all of these lessons really, unless I specifically said, this is something new, even my mentorship students are learning with you right here. And it hasn't been a whole lot of that. But because now I think because things are so expensive, I think people are at their wits end.
They're like, look, I have to make this work. And I'm going to take it serious. The man's putting his time out here for free.
I'm going to take advantage of that. And I'm going to do what he says. I'm going to put the work in.
That's what I think is actually happening because all the things I'm teaching here, I taught opening gaps. I taught opening range gap in mentorship. I have students that knew about it before I started talking about it.
That's not new stuff. I've taught this before. So what's occurring, I think, is the sense of urgency. While you can't speed up your ability to learn how to do this well, you can shorten the learning curve by being diligent about how you study and what your expectations are. While you do it, this cutting through all this chaff here and focusing on this gap, I want to see if they use it.
And then if it starts to spool lower this gap down here and then to 70% of the gap closure, I'm sorry, 50% of the gap closure, which is 70% likelihood of happening in the first 30 minutes, but I'm not holding it to it today because it's not from payroll. It's typical to break the rules, which is another reason why I don't like to trade it. Do you see any precision?
Easy for you to say, ICT. Do you see any precision elements in price action so far today? Nope.
So what did I teach you this week? When you see that lack of precision around my PDA raise, what's occurring? Who's in the marketplace pushing and maneuvering price? It's not the buyers and sellers. It's good old Phil.
He's doing his job today. Moving price around, running stops here, pushing it here, pushing it there. And there's no rhyme or reason why it's doing it.
And that's how you lose money. Saying, well, I feel like I've been watching this long enough today. It's about time I push a button.
Let me see what happens when I do this. Well, there you go. Congratulations.
Here's your ass. Handed right to you on a silver platter. That's not what I'm teaching. I'm teaching what to look for when it's high probability, it's obvious, it's one-sided, you can't justify going the other direction with it.
It's so heavy-handed, long or short, that's when you're trading. And maturity is waiting for those instances where it's so painfully obvious. And if you make that your regimen, that is your protocol that you look for every single time you trade, you are going to do the most in terms of reducing the likelihood of you blowing your account, reduce the likelihood of you going into drawdown, reduce the...
effects of fear and greed because you know what you're looking for. And I think as a teacher, no better reward for our time invested in other people than seeing a student say, I'm so proud of myself that I stuck to this because I wanted to quit so many times because it's not easy. It is not easy.
But for the folks that have grinded through this for several years. I have 2016 first round mentorship students that literally has reached out to me in the last two and a half weeks and said, Michael, like it was it was impossible for me to see how any of this could help me. And I see your students. I see what you're doing.
And it still wasn't able to bridge the gap for me. This mentorship that what you've shown here, like it's something brand new, nothing. Nothing I taught here except for the few things I mentioned, like a new week opening gap and new day opening gap and the difference between the two and how to use them. Notice I'm not using them every day. I'm reminding you that you don't need those either.
They're just helpful. They're helpful. And using the right context, they're extremely precise. But you don't need that. You don't need to bring everything from my YouTube channel to your charts and say, I need all this or I can't be profitable.
And that's the other thing I find that's very encouraging because now you're seeing that my stuff is not complicated. It's very simple. You don't need everything that I teach. You need one thing that sets the stage for you to be bullish or bearish.
Then you have to look at what time of day you're going to trade. In that time of day, where is the macro? Where's the liquidity? What's your multiplier?
What's the PD array that you're going to be using to get into the trade? These are all the things that are going to be hard in the beginning because you're going to see other students say, I'm using the optimal trade entry here. I'm using inversion fair value gap. I'm using propulsion block, order blocks, institutional order flow entry drills. And you're afraid that you'll spend too much time doing one PDA array when you're really designed and meant to trade something else.
And you're going to think it's the universe trying to communicate to you that this guy's... thing popped up on my stream. I don't even follow him. He was showing the inversion fair vega.
That's the one I should be doing, not the order block or breaker. You have to start somewhere and then stick to it. Well, it's certainly making the case like it wants to get down there.
I still wouldn't trade it. I know who's in here today. Now, in an ideal world, if it's bearish, the upper half of this gap should not be closed in.
Think about what's below the marketplace right now. You have this discount WIC, consequent encouragement. You have this fair value gap, and you have the 70% closure.
70%. 50% of the opening range gap that has a 70% likelihood of closing within the first 30 minutes of trading. So 10 o'clock is here.
So you have a couple minutes. But I already subscribed to the idea that it doesn't have to do that today. What I was saying about this gap here, this gap there. I was telling you I was watching that. We came back up in.
The body stopped at the upper quadrant of it. And then we broke lower and we created this fair value gap. If this was going to be bearish after leaving this gap here, because it showed a signature at the upper quadrant, meaning this. Look at the fib here.
Watch. This high up to the high of the volume imbalance, because you have to factor that in. And then the quadrant levels. I know I'm covering press.
I'm sorry. I'm trying to be as quick as I can. The bodies.
we're respecting the upper quadrant of that gap so if the price leaves lower like this and creates another fair value gap this is going to be a breakaway gap so there's our delivery into our fair value gap here and then consequent encouragement of this wick would be next and then half the gap So breakaway gaps, I have a lot of people asking about, can I comment on that? What constitutes a breakaway gap? You have to be able to identify and admittedly you can hear, I'm trying to be mindful of the risks of today because I know that many of you that aren't always honest with me, some of you are overzealous and you do trade your account while watching the live stream. And because you've made money for the first time, you're trying to share that with me on Twitter. and you show me this is what i've made today thank you so much you know and i appreciate the thank you but i don't want you thanking me for you doing the things i told you not to do please don't share your trades with me okay you can share them on your social media you can credit me if as as an influence but don't put my sim like my app don't put my handle in it because i'll see it and it messes it messes me up because i don't want your risk i don't want it and you're going to show me where it worked out great, but eventually you're going to do something that is ill-advised and it's going to hurt you.
And then you're going to complain to me. And that, that, that hurts because you don't listen to me. I don't want to see you lose money. I don't want to see you do something wrong.
And then you get scar tissue from it. But in the comments around all that stuff, a lot of folks, there's the consequent correction of the wick, the, um, here comes the gap closure it's just 50 boom and it happened before 10 o'clock again so there's your stats still uh killing it ict style mister i don't think it happens 77 time here's the other gap i told you i'd like to see so anyway let me finish this thought here because we had this initial gap there i wanted to see how price traded away from it it did and then i was watching when price was digging up into it I was waiting to see how the candlesticks are dropped. Where are they burying the bodies? Okay.
So if they're burying the bodies inside that gap and it's respecting the upper quadrant, that's the same thing. Even though it wicks outside of that gap, this is normal. We allow for that. What is that called?
A mohawk. It's just coloring outside the lines. It doesn't mean something's inherently broken or wrong. It just means it just explored outside of that.
But the bodies are telling you what? It's respecting. the upper quadrant of that gap and that means if we trade away from it go lower then it creates that gap with this candlesticks high as i was telling you this gap i'm watching it and if it trades up here i want to see it leave the upper half of that gap open well let's put the divider on it and we'll put a red line in the way it stands out a little bit Do you see the price stopping at the halfway point and not going in the upper half of that?
Pretty precise, isn't it? So because we left this gap in a manner of showing these signatures like this, and while I'm not willing to take the trade because it's not from payroll, and I could be wrong today, and I know people are going to copy me, and they're not going to listen to me. And if I'm wrong on a day where I'm not likely to be perfectly accurate, you could incur a loss. So I'm being very responsible with the choice of words I'm having today because I don't want to entice you to do something that you normally would do in other days. I want you to be respecting the risk because this day tends to do things outside of the parameters and rules that I give you.
That's the number one reason why I don't trade it. It's not something that adheres to the rules most times. Sometimes it can. But most times it doesn't.
Because I am aware of that. You're unaware of it. You think that I'm subliminally trying to tap your shoulder and say, take this as a trade.
And that's your conscience speaking to you, saying, let's be impulsive and look for anything that is a clue to get in here and do something when that's not what's going on here. And it certainly wouldn't be going on on a non-farm payroll day. So if the price is going to drop down into the gap closure, the half gap, this inefficiency, that first fair value gap.
that's leaving here then it should be met with no willingness to get to the upper half of it because that would indicate what heaviness and it wants to go lower and it did it to script so it drives aggressively down inside the the time window of 10 o'clock gap closure half was is right here and it hit before 10 o'clock so You watched me outline scenarios today that were both sides because it's a day where I can be wrong. And while I was really interested in seeing it go higher to upset those short positions on Tuesday, it worked this area here and it finally broke down and I took your attention to the fair value gap that started this run and outlined it. I don't want to make more of it than what it was, but I want you to see that Even in this, I can be wrong about my analysis initially. I wanted to see it go higher. But I can also recognize where it's likely to change its gears.
There was nothing that put me in a long position this morning. Nothing that would have put me in anything long. But real time, I explained how this was turning and then using this as a breakaway gap. What makes it a breakaway gap is that we already have enough to set the stage.
And this is the... inception of the price run this fair value gap the signature was inside of that gap look real close okay as price was meandering around in here remember i was telling you i want to get an x-ray view i want to cut through all this chaff and get to the heart of what's really going on this inefficiency so the market drops down comes right back up in the body stops short of the upper quadrant i'm seeing all this stuff with just rough eyeballing the high and the low that for that weight gap in other words i'm looking at this candlestick's high this candlestick's open because that volume imbalance is there this is not the proper fair value gap that's not it that's why you get this type of distortion you got to factor in that volume imbalance if there's ever a volume imbalance inside of what would be viewed as a potential fair value gap there is no there is no separation between the bodies with the first candle and the second candle there is a separation between the bodies on candle number three and candle number two can number two's close is lower than the open of the next candle here see that that small little separation between these two price points here and there so you have to draw your rectangle up there which is another reason why i'm not supplying demand okay i have very specific price levels you're not going to see that idea disguised As supply and demand science, it's not in their repertoire. So the benefit of having a real range like that defined and real inefficiency is that when you do quadrants inside of it, you're grading that price range.
And if it's bearish, we want to see signatures that indicate that bearishness. The bodies are going to tell you the story. Watching price when it went up in here, look where the close is.
It's below the upper quadrant. So is it laying the body down on top of the high of that shaded white area? No. This candlestick, we open, we wick outside of it, and then what? Move away from it.
So we opened below the upper quadrant. We allowed and afforded the market to do what? Create a little mohawk color outside the lines. But what does it do after it does that?
Smashes down. Wonderful. When this candlestick closed, I said, okay, I'm now I'm watching this. Everybody got here.
Go back and listen to the stream. You'll hear me say, if it's bearish, you want to see it stay outside of the upper half. And then boom, it delivers right to the half of it.
Not a tick more, not one tick more, and then lower. And then aggressively moves down to mid gap, which is a strike rate of 70%, no matter what anybody else tells you, by 10 o'clock. And it hits it there.
And it trades into the gap I was telling you about earlier. that this is this is my interest here if it goes down i'm going to see it go down here if it goes below it comes back up treat it as inversion fair value gap then we look for minor cell side and ultimately primary cell side over here So I've given you a couple of extra minutes, but I do very much have to get off of here. I have a personal matter I take care of.
My wife's been sick, so I got to play nurse on top of that. So I didn't intend to take a trade today. It's not from payroll. I hope that I have taught you that you can have an analysis. You can have an expectation and still have a profitable idea being wrong.
I did not take the short. I'm not secretly taking a short. I don't have anything to show you as an execution. What I shared today was all there is for it.
I hopefully have communicated the importance of abstaining from this day, learning what they do with liquidity, how they run for the inefficiency, the delay of the land, the points and references that I've mentioned, except for all the way up here, that buy side up here, the primary buy side. Everything else has been pretty good for a case study today. I would be pleased if I was someone sitting in and watching what I watched today because it was based on logic, not impulsive chasing price, and just the sheer precision elements of it. It's just wonderful. And even during this messy stuff that you would think the job is real, the job is real.
It's not. The precision's real. That's the reality of price.
It's that. And when price is not illustrating that, when we were doing all this back and forth stuff, I mentioned, okay, are you seeing anything that's showing elements of precision? Not yet, until we had that, what I just described with the bodies, and then the displacement lower, then that fair value got presented itself. Boom, everything dialed in like an eagle's eye.
I trained in on that. I put your attention right there, and the market delivered that. Now, the trolls won't see that as something useful.
My question is, do you see that as useful? Do you see that as something that is a signature in price action that tends to repeat? You're seeing me actually identify it real time. And it frames the price run that you see many times after the fact.
And you're like, what causes that? How is he able to do this? How does he keep getting away with this? It's because of the logic I'm teaching you.
It's real. There is an algorithm, whether you like to believe it or not. And you can take advantage of these things. You can exploit them just like smart money does.
They're doing that every single day. So that's it for this one. Try to get some rest this weekend. I'm certainly going to try to do that.
I've been up most of the night playing nurse. So I'm going to try to take care of what I got to take care of. And if I can manage to get a couple hours of sleep this afternoon, I'm going to do that.
Enjoy your weekend. And Lord willing, I'll be back at it again next week. Until then, be safe.