Butterfly Effect L17: One Day at a Time 3.5

Jul 4, 2024

Lecture Notes

Overview

  • Discussed levels and price testing on different exchanges (Binance, BitMEX, etc.).
  • Emphasis on understanding and using actual levels rather than prices.
  • Mentioned gaps in the market and their perceived misconceptions.
  • Highlighted the importance of not losing money in trading.
  • Discussed the progression of knowledge and income in day trading.

Levels and Price Testing

  • Example Level: 61.84 on Binance.
  • Comparison with XBT on BitMEX:
    • Find the equivalent level on the BitMEX chart.
    • Use of time stamps to find levels.
    • Examined the 3-minute range for comparison.
    • Personal preference: author prefers using 61.84 regardless of exchange differences.

Gaps and Misconceptions in the Market

  • Common misconception: gaps make trading difficult.
  • Clarification: gaps (also called windows) do not affect the author's strategy.
  • Emphasis on precise predictions despite gaps.
  • The term "windows" was used historically (e.g., 1940s).
  • People tend to create unnecessary terms to understand market phenomena.

Trading Strategy and Mindset

  • Focus on not losing money rather than making money.
  • Building a foundation to prevent losses:
    • Equip traders to never lose a cent.
    • Start small and build over time.
  • Advice for mentees:
    • Test and perfect trades without the pressure to make money.
    • Avoid losing bank accounts and bankrolls.
    • Making informed, high-quality trades over time.

Knowledge and Income Progression

  • The pathway of knowledge and income in day trading:
    • Knowledge grows incrementally (staircase model).
    • Income remains flat until a significant level of understanding is achieved.
    • At a certain point, income can increase sharply or decrease if not prepared.
  • The necessity to avoid quitting before reaching full potential.
  • Learning to make precise trades and managing risks effectively.
    • For example, small strategic trades leading to significant profits over time.
    • Emphasis on reducing risk and avoiding entering bad positions.
    • Examples of greed and strategic positioning.

Final Thoughts

  • Importance of perseverance in trading.
  • The goal is to master the trading strategy before expecting significant income.
  • Once mastered, executing trades becomes almost effortless.