Overview
This lecture discusses recent developments in the Eastern Mediterranean involving Libya, Turkey, Egypt, and Greece, as well as broader regional dynamics including the Abraham Accords, Iranian-Israeli tensions, and the strategic impact of IMEC.
Eastern Mediterranean Maritime Disputes
- Libya released new EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) maps submitted to the UN after March 19.
- Egypt released its own maritime demarcation conflicting with Libya's claims.
- Libya’s actions are influenced by Turkey, especially regarding new maritime plots.
- The four new Libyan maritime plots do not cross Greece's median demarcation line but do encroach on Egypt’s maritime claims.
- There are concerns about the "triple point" where Greek, Egyptian, and Libyan maritime boundaries meet.
- Greece and Egypt’s partial demarcation agreement leaves unresolved issues, especially at the boundaries.
- Turkey is leveraging instability in Libya to pressure Egypt and Greece.
- Diplomatic preparations are advised ahead of official meetings between Greece and Libya.
Security & Hybrid Threats
- Greece considers mass migration events near Crete as part of hybrid threats, linked to regional instability.
- The Greek Prime Minister has deployed warships outside Libyan territorial waters as a deterrent.
Regional Power Dynamics & Diplomacy
- Recent NATO summit saw public interactions between the Greek and Turkish Presidents but no substantive US-Turkey diplomacy.
- Turkey’s conflicting stances—critical of Israel/US, supportive of Iran/Pakistan—undermine its standing with the US.
- Iranian propaganda emphasizes victory post-conflict with Israel, despite internal challenges and military weaknesses.
- The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is holding, though underlying tensions persist.
The Abraham Accords & IMEC
- New moves are underway to expand the Abraham Accords, especially to include Saudi Arabia and Syria.
- Signs and political momentum indicate a push for a new Middle East security alignment, supported by the US.
- The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is seen as a catalyst for regional cooperation, linking India, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, and Europe.
- IMEC functions in opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with IMEC viewed as a genuine alliance.
Key Terms & Definitions
- EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) — Area of sea where a state has special rights regarding marine resources.
- Median Demarcation Line — Agreed or claimed boundary between two states’ maritime zones.
- Partial Demarcation — An incomplete maritime boundary agreement covering only part of the region.
- Hybrid Threats — Combined use of conventional and unconventional tools (e.g., migration) to pressure states.
- Abraham Accords — Series of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states.
- IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) — Economic initiative connecting South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
- Belt and Road Initiative — China’s global infrastructure and economic development strategy.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Prepare diplomatic groundwork before upcoming Greece-Libya meetings.
- Monitor developments in Libyan maritime claims, especially regarding Egypt.
- Track progress on Abraham Accords expansion and IMEC developments.