So while we're all talking about autonomous vehicles, Robotaxi, Waymo, Cruise, Tesla, BYD, Xpeng, etc, etc, I do want to touch on the company that might be of the center of it all. Yes, to me, that is Uber. Now, you might call me completely crazy.
What do you mean Uber? They don't even have their own Robotaxi fleet or working on autonomous vehicle technology. Well, by the way, they did work on that, but they basically noticed, okay, It's not our thing, we'd rather be the platform, the infrastructure for transportation.
And so, let's talk about that in this video. Uber right now has a market cap of $152.2 billion, has a forward P of 27 times. The stock over the last 5 years is up 112%. Year-to-date, it's up 17%.
And if we look at what the analysts are expecting the company to do in the next couple of years... They expect the company to grow sales at an average of 15.5% in the next coming fiscal years, year-over-year growth. EPS in fiscal year 2024, 17.6% year-over-year growth, followed by 44.4% and 32.2% year-over-year growth in the next two fiscal years.
This is definitely a fast-growing company. And not just that. Uber historically has been pretty unprofitable, but they have turned a page. If we look at 4SPE, EV2 EBITDA, price to sales, price to free cash flow, price earnings to growth, it's mostly under the five-year mean.
I mean, 4SPE, 27 times compared to 56.4 times, despite the stock being up quite a lot over the last couple of years. EV2 EBITDA, 20.9 times. Price to sales is basically the same as the five-year mean, 3.3 times.
Price to free cash flow, 32 times and improving. And here, price earnings to growth. 0.56.
Anything under one is considered very cheap. So what has been happening with Uber? Well, what has been happening is the business. The business has just grown and improved quite drastically.
So let's discuss all of that in this video, Uber's business and my, let's say, opinion on Uber's future in a robo-taxi world. Of course, do share yours down in the comment section below. Like, subscribe, do all of that, hit the notification bell so you don't miss any future videos.
If you want to support me even further, do check out the link down in the description and hit up in comments with the top 10 best stocks to buy now, or go to fool.com forward slash couch investor. Thank you very much. So of course, I mean, if you've watched the Tesla weekly video, you already have seen this slide before. Bottom picture is basically the concept of what could be Tesla's robotaxi car.
Then here at the top, you've got Waymo, that's a Jaguar. So Waymo with some radar, LiDAR. I mean, I've never driven in one, but apparently it's pretty smooth.
I've been in a Tesla with FSD. Of course, it's just a regular Tesla car that just drives you from point A to point B without the driver actually touching the wheel. So that's pretty cool.
And then the yellow car here is basically, well, supposed to be what we will see during the 1010 event, the Robotaxi Tesla event in October, of course, wrapped, camouflaged. So we don't actually know how the car will actually look like. Now, what we do know...
is this, that Uber is not sleeping on the fact that there will be robotaxis in the future, not sleeping on the fact that autonomous driving is going to be a thing. So we know that Uber and Cruise have a partnership and we know that Uber and Waymo have one as well. And they recently expanded that partnership to bring autonomous ride hailing to Austin and Atlanta.
So specifically on that announcement, beginning in In early 2025, Waymo and Uber will bring autonomous ride hailing to Austin and Atlanta only on the Uber app. In these cities, Uber will manage and dispatch a fleet of Waymo's fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-Pace that will grow to hundreds over time. Riders who request an UberX, UberGreen, UberComfort or UberComfort Electric may be matched with a Waymo for qualifying trips. Of course, qualifying trips probably means in geo-fenced areas.
Now, we also had commentary from Uber's CEO, I think in the Q1 earnings call, or maybe Q2. So he talks here about the autonomous vehicle providers, new imitation learning technologies take hold and create new wave of autonomous vehicles at a substantially lower capital cost than was necessary historically. If there are many, many autonomous vehicle providers the marketplace and our marketplace is by far the largest global marketplace from a mobility delivery and then freight as well the marketplace will have a very, very strong position, basically talking about Uber itself, positioning itself at the center of it all.
And this is basically where my point has been for quite a while. They have the distribution, they have the... app on most people's phones when you go to parties when you need let's say a so-called taxi what app do you open probably uber right maybe some of you still have lyft but it's probably going to be uber just like the fact that when you search for something it's still probably Google it or if you go and look for a vacation home or something like that it's probably going to be Airbnb right maybe booking as well booking tremendous company tremendous app but here I do expect Uber to be the exact same thing now right now the global ride-hailing market is estimated to be valued at 160 billion dollars and is expected to reach 384.5 billion dollars you by 3031. Now according to coherent market insights they say that North America is estimated to have 37.4% of the market revenue share of that 160 billion dollars today and to be honest that makes sense right You can price it higher in that market and it's probably the most popular market out there. Now in the future with autonomous vehicles I also expect it to start in North America and then go into Europe and China so that will evolve and these numbers will probably evolve throughout the years as well.
Now here on the left what you can see is well the white paper from ARK Invest. Take it with a grain of salt things can change, ARK Invest can be wrong, can be right as well. So they say here, ARK estimates that autonomous taxis will cost consumers 35 cents per mile, or roughly half of the all-in-cost car owners pay to drive today.
Autonomous cars will likely cause a shift away from personally owned vehicles, which will depress global auto sales volume in the coming decades. ARK expects traffic to increase to almost 3x today's level by 2030, that's not great. Autonomous taxis should boost US GDP by 2040. by over $2 trillion by 2035. Auto accidents rates should decline by 80%.
The autonomous mobility as a service market should exceed $10 trillion in sales by the early 2030s. I mean, this is overly optimistic in my opinion, especially with the timeline, but could be in the future, right? ARK believes investors may be undervaluing the opportunity of mobility as a service today severely.
and that in five years, autonomous taxi networks could have a market cap of roughly $4 trillion. Again, the next five years, I don't see these things move so fast. I mean, from a regulatory standpoint, from a people driving on the road standpoint, I really don't see how these things will do, well, will increase so quickly. But hey, we'll see. Again, for people that think that this will never happen or doesn't exist.
Tesla FSD supervised exists. I've been in one. Waymo, cruise, they exist. They drive.
When I'm speaking to you, right, when I'm speaking to you, when I'm speaking through this camera here, someone is probably taking a Waymo or a cruise. There is no driver in that driver's seat. So these things already exist.
Today. Now here, the bottom right, this comes from Uber directly. So innovation that's ready for today and tomorrow. The light bulb and the power grid, the automobile and highways, computers and the internet.
Where would this groundbreaking innovation be without the others that enabled their full potential. Progress needs a partner. For autonomous vehicle, that partner is Uber. As the largest on-demand mobility and delivery platform in the world, alongside our deep expertise in marketplace, management, fleet utilization and local operations, we're uniquely positioned to help autonomous vehicle hardware and software developers deploy and scale their technology globally. And together, we'll continue to move the world forward with autonomous solutions that works for us all.
Now, I know I know already the points that will be mentioned here is, of course, they have to say that because they can see the end at the end, their end at the end of the tunnel because of autonomous vehicles. because that could replace their model. Because some people think that Waymo, Cruise, BYD, Xpeng, Tesla, etc, etc, will all have their own apps and people will just download 10 apps that will be put on their phones and you can order your Tesla or your Waymo, etc, etc, from individual apps and that will undercut Uber basically. And Uber drivers will not be going on Uber anymore since the car can drive itself. Uber drivers cost more, etc, etc.
I... I hope I just destroyed this argument by saying that people will have to download 10 different apps. No, you have Uber.
You have all the choices in one app. Payments extremely quickly. From an advertising standpoint, Uber is the delivery platform as well.
Uber Eats on Uber. Freight, distribution, shipping, all of that will happen on one platform. And that will be Uber.
That's just my opinion. I have no shares in Uber. Not planning on buying any shares anytime soon. Could change in a few.
future but i do think that's exactly what's going to happen and that's their strength they know how to operate in global markets regulation wise i mean that's a pretty pretty big deal they continue here talking about mobility delivery and freight so mobility autonomous vehicles and human drivers together on one platform means the right ride for every customer is always within reach getting almost anything on uber eats can become even easier and more affordable with deliveries from from all electric sidewalks robots and autonomous cars. Of course, with the all electric sidewalk robots, I think that's still going to be an issue because there will still be some douchebags that will just see the robots on the sidewalk. push it over, maybe destroy it, steal the food, stuff like that. And the same can happen with autonomous cars, by the way.
So yeah, there will be some punishments with that. And then the last one is freight here. Thanks to our efforts in autonomous trucking with Aurora, I believe, Volvo and some others.
So thanks to their efforts in autonomous trucking, they're advancing towards a future where goods and people move more efficiently. Of course, we know with the Tesla Semi, this could also be a great partnership. Now, we also have information here from Uber directly, talking about autonomous vehicles.
Over the quarter, so that was, I believe, one quarter ago, over the quarter, we grew autonomous vehicle trips on Uber by 6x year over year via our 10 partnerships across mobility, delivery and freight. Of course, we don't know 6x from what number. But it's a 6X year over year.
We also launched airport curbside drop-off with Waymo at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, an exciting new use case. We're helping AV providers manage the daily and weekly peaks. and valleys of ride hail activity so they can ensure as close to full utilization as possible.
Of course, that's great for both, right? Uber makes money. But on the other side, guys like Waymo, like Cruise, get more miles, more experiences. People get exposed to that new way of transportation.
So it's a win-win for everyone. So again. Uber here benefiting from all of that, Uber being at the center of it all and being quite an asset light company and benefiting from all of that.
In addition, our ability to offer seamless first AV trip experiences is critical to increasing adoption and earning a rider's trust for long term retention. As such, our partners have seen higher rates of utilization on Uber with rapidly growing AV business and industry leading utilization on the Uber platform. We remain confident that we are the best partner for the commercialization of AVs and are driving better economics for the AV ecosystem overall.
We'll have more to announce in the coming months. And of course, they announced an expanded partnership with Cruise and Waymo. But this is also a very, very good point to bring up with regards to electric vehicles.
Because Uber, I mean, millions and millions of people are using Uber each and every day, right? And... Not everyone has the experience of an electric vehicle. We've talked about Tesla quite a lot on this channel. And to be honest, through Uber, so many people have experienced an electric vehicle.
Right? You go in, you're like, oh, this is a nice Tesla. How is it? How's the experience? The driver explains.
Oh, this is a nice Kia EV. Driver explains. Rivian, etc., etc.
You get to experience something that you couldn't experience before. Another huge benefit for Uber. Now, of course, from a Tesla's perspective, Tesla, this was the last number that I found from Statista.
So number of cars collecting data, probably now closer to 3 million. Tesla by far the leader there. Xpeng, 270,000.
Then you've got Waymo, 1,000. Baidu, 500. Pony, never heard of them, 300. Cruise, 300 as well. So from the company standpoint that created these vehicles, et cetera, et cetera, not asset-light companies, Tesla by far the leader.
But since there will be plenty of options out there, I think it's important to look at, I won't say the infrastructure, but I would say the platform, the distribution channel, and that's definitely, in my opinion, going to be Uber. Of course, things can change over the long run, but yeah, they've positioned themselves quite well. Now, for those that needed a quick reminder of Uber's business and its performance in the last four years, so delivery revenue growth, well...
Total change has been 271%, growing at a CAGR of 38.82%. Mobility revenue, growing at a CAGR of 67% in the last four years. And gross bookings, growing at 40.47% CAGR in the last four years as well. If you want to look at the moment the story changed, it's basically here at the end of 2022. I mean, from a cash flow burning business to now... a free cash flow, I won't say machine, but a free cash flow generating company and growing quite nicely every single quarter, every single year.
So yeah, in my opinion, the thesis around Uber being a bad business has completely changed and has changed for quite a while. I believe I talked about Uber, well, close to the moment it changed. And so that is reflected in the stock, right?
We've seen here, July, 2022, the stock was at around... $20, which was also the lows of the pandemic 2020. And since then, well, the stock went all the way up to $82, dropped here on the August 5th, Black Monday, closer to $55. And since then, it made quite a nice recovery above the 200-day moving average. It now sits above the 50 and the 20-day one as well at $72.48.
RSI also pretty neutral right now. So. Overall, that's my case, my bull case, let's say for Uber.
I can be completely wrong, can be very, very right. Do let me know down in the comment section below. Do share your opinion as well.
Like, subscribe, do all of that. And I'll see you all in the next one. Bye-bye.