Geopolitical Tensions in the South Caucasus

Jun 23, 2024

Geopolitical Tensions in the South Caucasus

Key Events:

  • September 19, 2023: Explosions in the Republic of ARA.
    • Aeran launched military action in Negoro Carak (also known as Negoro Kabak).
    • Resulted in significant territory changes.
  • Subsequent Developments:
    • Arsak government ended separatist rule.
    • Armenia's disenchantment with Russia due to non-intervention.
    • Armenia turns to India for military support.

Historical Context:

  • Pre-1918: Complex ethnic and territorial claims in South Caucasus.
    • Ties with Armenian, Georgian, Persian, and Turkish Empires.
  • 1915-1918: Armenian Genocide by Turks.
    • Over a million Armenians killed, 1.5 million deported.
  • 1920: Initial conflict over Kabak region between Armenia and Aeran.
    • Soviet Russia's intervention led to region's integration into Soviet Union by 1921.
    • Negoro Kabak established with 94% Armenian population within Azerbaijan SSR.
  • 1991: Collapse of Soviet Union.
    • Renewed conflict over Negoro Kabak.
    • Republic of Arsak (supported by Armenia) established.
    • First war between Aeran and Arsak.

Recent Conflicts:

  • 2020: Second Negoro Kabak war.
    • Aeran reclaimed territories, including parts of Arsak.
  • 2023: Large-scale offensive by Aeran.
    • Entire disputed area came under Aeran's control.
    • Mass displacement of Armenians to Armenia.

Geopolitical Dynamics:

  • Russia's Role:
    • Traditionally a close ally and security guarantor of Armenia.
    • Failed to support Armenia in conflicts of 2020 and 2023.
    • Armenia's shift towards other alliances for defense.
  • India's Involvement:
    • Arms supply to Armenia post-2020 conflict.
    • Deals include anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers worth $250 million.
  • Turkey's Ambitions:
    • Support to Azerbaijan against Armenia.
    • Pursuit of a pan-Turkic Empire, linking Turkish-speaking nations.
  • Iran's Position:
    • Facilitated India's arms supply to Armenia initially.
    • Blocked shipments in April 2024, possibly due to Russian pressure.
  • Israel's Influence:
    • 70% of Azerbaijan's arsenal from 2016-2020 supplied by Israel.
    • Interest in countering Iran's influence.

Implications:

  • Armenia's New Alliances:
    • Potential shift of Armenia towards Western alliances.
    • Risk of becoming a NATO proxy.
  • Russia and Iran's Concerns:
    • Expansion of Turkish and NATO influence in the region.
    • Preference for a stable Armenia to counterbalance regional adversaries.

Conclusion:

  • India's shift from a non-aligned stance could safeguard its regional interests.
  • The effectiveness of this strategy remains to be observed.