Transcript for:
Geopolitical Tensions in the South Caucasus

on September 19th 2023 explosions rocked the Republic of ARA aeran launched military action in the negoro carak region on Tuesday A Move That Could foreshadow a new war atak also known as negoro kabak was a breakaway State and functioned as a deao part of Armenia witnessed a large scale military offensive by azerbajan Days Later arsak government announced that formally ending more than 30 years of separatist rule for The ethnically Armenian Enclave inside aeran armenia's closest Ally and security guarantor Russia did not intervene during this one-day war in which aeran seized the long disputed region of kabak this meant Armenia no longer saw Russia as an ally let alone a security guarantor this prompted Armenia to turn to other major powers and one of them happens to be India despite having special relationship with Russia India is encroaching in what has been Russia's exclusive zone of influence so why is India risking its relationship with Russia by arming an anti-russian Armenia the South Caucasus a region of diverse ethnic groups including Georgians Armenian Christians and Muslims of azerbajan has long been a Hots spot for disputes due to its historical ties with Armenian Georgian Persian and Turkish Empires these disputes have territorial claims dating back 2,500 years however to understand the context of current geopolitical puzzle we must go back at least 100 years at the end of World War I Armenians were facing the aftermath of Armenian Genocide by Turks from 1915 to 1918 it is estimated that over a million Armenians were massacred and over 1.5 million were deported leaving them confined to the modern-day Armen and negoro kabak after the collapse of Russian Empire in 1917 both Armenia and aeran claimed the kabak region leading to a small war in 1920 but it was intervened by Soviet Russia's 11th Red Army integrating the area into Soviet Union by 1921 they established negoro kabak an area with a 94% Armenian population as an autonomous region within the azerbijan Soviet Socialist Republic the conflict was thus sheld for the next 70 years but flared up again when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 while Azan and Armenia became independent negoro kabak backed by Armenia established the Republic of arsak leading to the first war of negoro kabak with aeran by the war's end Armenians controlled about 9% of azerbaijani territory Outside The Enclave in 2020 aeran reclaimed lost territories and some parts of artar in the second negoro kabak war a subsequent large-scale offensive in 2023 brought the entire disputed area under aabani control forcing tens of thousands of Armenians to seek refuge in Armenia Armenia a member of collective security Treaty Organization a NATO likee military alliance with Russia and five others held de facto control over artso while CST protocol obligates member nations to assist if a m is attacked it doesn't apply to extr territorial disputes like negoro kabak which wasn't officially part of Armenia but Russia is a close Ally and a security guarantor of Armenia and yet Moscow failed to support them during the conflicts in 2020 and 2023 as a result Armenia no longer views Russia as a trusted Ally let alone a security guarantor and is actively seeking new alliances for its defense collaboration after its crushing defeat in the second carabat war War Armenia began procuring arms from India including four svei weapon locating Radars after this New Delhi agreed to supply yavan with anti-tank missiles pinaka multibarrel rocket launchers and other Munitions worth $250 million India's interests in the region are multifaceted including its goal to counter turkey for its support to Pakistan's fictitious claims on jamu and Kashmir which is an Indian Territory this backing by turkey stems from its Imperial ambition to create a pan-turkic Empire comprising all Turkish speaking Nations a worldview that continues to direct ankara's foreign policy this was evident in 2020 when azerbijan allegedly Guided by turkey attacked atak region this direct involvement including supply of weapons and troops marked the peak of pan turism policy aggressively pursued by Turkish president erdogan and it was further intensified in his speech on azan's Victory Day celebration [Music] foreign fore for he unequivocally confirmed turkey's Readiness to secure its geostrategic interests by all kinds of means including Force both turkey and azerbijan are pushing ahead for the proposed Zang gazur Corridor linking them through armenia's disputed Zang gazur region heightens armenia's concerns Armenia is a non-t nation and is perceived as a barrier in the way of a pan turkic Empire which raises fears of a joint turkic offensive to Annex the Zang gazur region in the future before we continue to next part of the video please hit like and make sure to subscribe to support our our channel for more such videos it appears that India was reportedly shipping arms to Armenia through Iran and then cross over to Armenia at the nord's border point this is interesting because tyan and Moscow are in an alliance of sort against the west and yet Iran agreed to help India Supply weapons in Russia's region of influence however this changed when Iran blocked these shipments in April 20124 possibly due to pressure from Russia which until 2020 was supplying 94% of armenia's weapons on the other hand Russia is also wary of turkey's Ambitions and the fact that Anora is a NATO member an expansion of turkey's influence would mean expansion of NATO's influence that could extend as far as Turkmenistan this is something Putin cannot afford and will do everything to keep other powers away from establishing influence in this region be it a friend or a foe given the geopolitical Dynamics of the region India's involvement is in fact in Russia's favor because that could keep Armenia away from Western influence while Armenia May currently show some anti-russian sentiments it remains a valuable Ally for Moscow in the region the Russians are not keen on letting Armenia shift its Alliance towards the west and end up being another NATO proxy in the region Iran's motive of helping India largely stems from Israel's backing of aeran which supplied 70% of azan's Arsenal from 2016 to 2020 giving them an edge in the 2020 War war against Armenia and israeli's interest in the region is largely driven by a desire to counter their biggest adversary Iran the existence of a pro-israeli aeran on Iran's northern border poses a security threat to the Iranian regime this is compounded by the large aeri population residing in Western Iran fears exist that Israel and the us could exploit their influence over aeran to incite anti-iranian activities among the Iranian Aeries hence both Russ Ria and Iran would prefer a strong and stable Armenia to safeguard their interests in the region and for India its recent military exports to Armenia openly aligns them on yovan's side signaling India's willingness to abandon its non-aligned stance to safeguard its interests it remains to be seen if this move by India will work in its favor or against it