Welcome everyone. You're joining us on yet another edition of Plain Speak podcast. I'm Shivani Gupta. We're joining you on a day when India has announced its retributive action against Pakistanbased terror camps and terror organizations after the Pelgam attack. I have with me Major Manik Jolly who of course an expert to understand from the kinetics of the situation. Now uh first up though we were wondering for the last two weeks it's taken 2 weeks for the Indian government to finally conduct this operation and they have called it operation Sindur very aptly because Hindu males were singled out from that tourist group and were shot dead point blank in their heads in front of their wives and their family members. And several of those those ladies who actually spoke to us in the aftermath of that Pelam attack said that they were told Let me begin with you. We will discuss with Major Jolli. What are the options in front of Pakistan now? And of course, how does India handle the escalation matrix? What are the international signals that have come in so far? But first up, operation Synindur. How apt is that? It is actually perfect because generally whenever you are carrying out military operations, they have a very unique sense of naming, right? You'll have them gibralar or you know you'll have black black rock or your green horn or something like that which are not very let's say plain speak like you just said right but Synindhur has a lot of uh you know me it has a lot of meaning here especially in this operation it means it is not just a military operation it is a nation's operation we are sending a message to you where government people the victims the army has come together and then we are getting making this happen, not just a cold military action. There's a lot of emotion involved. Exactly. Exactly. So I I really personally really like the name. Uh but can you give me some insight since you talked about it? What goes into naming a military operation? Actually sometimes nothing at all. Sometime the boss would say let's call it operation cabbage and it will be operation cabbage. Sometimes you try and like Indian army did operation navy combined called it captain operation cactus. It's not that there is a lot of cactus in Maldives or something like that. But there is not much thought actually I have never seen that I have sometimes you and also you want to disassociate the region you want to go maintain the secrecy also so it is actually very random so it can be anything but this this in this case it's not random at all it's absolutely perfect uh in fact a short while ago we had the press conference that was held by the MOD and the MEA and you had Major Sophia Kureshi of the Indian army army and also wing commander vomika Singh of the Indian air force two women uh representing two minority religions of the country what a messaging there as well exactly that's how that's how we tell them that's that's who we are that's who we are versus what you are versus what was talking about you send your terrorists into a country you kill Hindu males those who don't have weapons those who are not trained to fight those who have no security around them. You pick them out on a point where they are with their families just having a nice vacation and you catch them unsuspecting and you kill them. But we are who place even you know uh this is the way we give a message. So very it it was a great idea naming it how the whole press conference was organized. I think it was great idea you know. Now in that press conference in fact it was wing commander Vomika Singh who ended the press conference by giving a warning shot to Pakistan that see already the press conference had said that these are very measured calculated non-escalatory proportionate action from India that's a message to the world and also to Pakistan but at the end wing commander vomika Singh shot off a warning that Pakistan better not retaliate on this because then it will escalate. I want to ask from you what you make of that message. So it it's actually as as clear as it goes. What she said was uh let's let's say what we trying to tell Pakistan that you say that you are also you know getting affected by terrorism. You say that so many of my soldiers are dying fighting terrorists. So we have killed terrorists. Yeah. Why you feeling we've done your job for you? Yeah. Why are you feeling bad? And if you want to take a stand for your terrorists, then you are de facto a terror nation. Yeah. So take the right call. So what we have done is we have not hurt your civilians. We not hurt your military installations. We've not acted against your soldiers. We have killed terror centers and terrorists and that is where we want to leave it unless you do something. Yeah. And also we are proving it. Our we the entire army is not deployed on border. Leaves are not getting cancelled. You know life is normal. You and I are sitting here talking. So we are telling the world that our message is true, honest and reliable that we are not heading for war. We just wanted to give this message to the terrorist. They just happen to be in Pakistan. So we are telling Pakistan that that don't feel bad. We just killed the terrorist. Why you getting angry? No. And this is where the dilemma for Pakistan now lies. So let's come to it. What are the options for Pakistan? If they act one, they will escalate the issue further and then no world power can ask India to be restrained anymore. If they act, they will also be seen as somehow defending the terror camps that exist inside Pakistan. Yeah. So what we spoke earlier was a very ideal situation. Right now the reality all these terror camps exist because Pakistan allows them to. Yes. They are like a extension of their government. M they are part of their authoritative control over the public and you know all how they run the setup. So uh if Pakistan is in the dilemma especially the army as the ISI if they do not fight for these tanims these terror organizations they will stop supporting them. Yeah. And it is through them that they control P and have you know whatever dirty work they want to get done like what happened in if they support them they have to face the world then why are you fighting for them yes Pakistan can take that claim that whatever said and done you fired in our sovereign territory it is still our country whosoever you are targeting and that's not done we have our case justified we don't have to prove it to anyone why we did that but Pakistan will will not bring in the terrorist angle It will bring in that you attacked that territory or civilians also they I think they will also possibly make the excuse that so many civilian lives were lost. They will they will they will this is the this is a typical you know what do you say textbook kind of a situation where you know you attack a country and then when retaliation come you start playing victim card because uh this is works in Pakistan favor for the global narrative thing. So the options with Pakistan are one they honestly actually close the chapter which is actually the best option for them. Second is they say we will do something retaliatory right within next 46 36 48 72 hours just because army wants to prove a point to its population you know we are we're not going to take it sitting lying down and all of that that'll be very bad for them actually because I'll not get into the details of but the sum of it is Pakistan is no condition to wage a war sustain a war even sustain the op alert where they can stay posted on you know stay deployed and third option would be Pakistan takes time which most probably it'll do. It'll take time but uh do something for sure. Will it rebuild all of these facilities or do you think there will be too much international pressure for um to not allow at least these sites uh the 21 sites that have been attacked. See buildings are temporary. Yeah, they're dispensable. Yeah, dispensable. That's the right word actually. But it's the leadership and ideologies that exist that they still exist. No, certainly uh that certainly is a civilizational war that you know we've been fighting for a thousand years. But I mean like even these camps if they were seen as coming back again certainly it will make for a bigger case in the international community that see they were not willing to act like uh the M representative Mr. Mistri said today that you were not willing to act on them. You kept denying even in the 14 days that have passed since Pelgamat attack you did nothing on any of the terror organizations. you've been lying about it and you know playing victim and you know uh acting innocent. we've done this job for you now but if Pakistan if you know there will be a lot of attention and obviously all kind of imagery is tracked if they come up again these camps then obviously it's indictment of Pakistan that's true I mean you're right on that because I think but here's the thing if they start building that again do India starts considering it option do we throw a missile again do we take it to the international court do we take it because nothing happens you take it to UN you take it to IGC nothing happens on these things so India should take it this way I did what I did even if they build a sevenstory you know fivestar hotel there I don't care I have done my job for once because as you said buildings are dispensable but also they can be created very easily so we should actually close the chapter there that we have done it and we are not interested even if they're building building again because even if we put in that effort to prove they are building again nothing will come out of it sure and we can't keep breaking them again and again it can't be endless loop for us so we should leave it at that and so should Pakistan if try if they try and escalate it'll be very bad for them. No. So let's come to that dilemma that you talked about the options one is that they just let this be the end of the chapter they say actually given the kind of fury the sound and fury that was preceding this attack operation Synindur attack that came forward the expectation was actually much worse right we all expected much worse let's be honest about it Pakistan was fearing much worse you must have heard the statements they were going all across the world and saying this that and nuclear that statement is also viral. Uh but do they have the capacity to think like that? Okay, let this be for now. So Pakistan is a very strange kind of country. It's like the unique uh case if even if you look at every other possible country doesn't matter how big or small it is Pakistan is very unique in a way that successively right from the start the governments have believed in openly lying to their uh population public the army has been in much control of power the fault lines are extensive between the radicals and you know terrorist organization and army and politicians and the moolas and so it is just a very unique case for that what it does is that anybody nobody single-handedly has the authority to take a decision either you have to take everybody on board or you go rogue so when they give these such kind of statements right this is just a political faction doing his lip service on international arena whether he has the backing from Asiman or the army or the ISI or the air force force and even within their army they're broken down. There's a Moner gang, there's a Iran Khan gang and there's many subfactions. There are hardcore radical officers and troops. There's somebody who are very modern looking and we don't want to associate with that. It's a very broken down somehow existing kind of a nation. It's a possibly it's anti-India hate is what keeps it together. To totally right on that. That is one thing that keeps them alive together. and the Islamic nationalism. Somehow they think we are the chosen ones. Yeah. Because they were the first Islamic republic since the old caliphate. Yeah. So, so they think that we are the chosen ones and we've been given the response whereas they messed their country up so badly. So in like discussing the second option where they think they can escalate and they can keep threatening. This is just posturing. This is just them trying to tell their people that's what the public is doing to government and government is doing to public. No, actually I was coming to the second option. Now also on the second option Mr. Kuaja is on record apparently to say just after the strikes were made public that if India stops here Yeah. we are willing to let this be. Yes. Yes. How do you read that statement? Yeah, it was the moment the moment it said I tweeted also that this is really big actually. But uh a if history has taught us anything never trust Pakistanis. Every time we have even taken a step to start to trusting them they have ditched us. Parliament attack cargle you know these are very recent 20 30 years is very recent in countries histories and all. So these are very great and uh examples where we can say the moment we placed all our trust in them that fine we'll start building a relationship they just turned around and stabbed us in the back. So this statement is just to one let the pressure off on them because everybody would getting after them right from China, US intern don't attack, don't attack, don't escalate. Even China's statement today was that don't do anything else now. Yeah, they was very calm actually unexpected right you would have thought their best ally would get very strong but they except for the unreg calm about it. So I would say that this was one to ease pressure and secondly they are hoping that India gets a little complicent calm down you know then they look for that opportunity. So this is what is happening. They will do something for sure. I'm pretty sure of that. Yeah. So let's come to that because let's face it uh whether you hit nine sites or you know 19 sites the terrorism factory in Pakistan is not going anywhere. Let's face it. I mean that comes from a religious indoctrination which we cannot discount and the fountain head is radical Islamic theology. Yeah. Uh ultimately this is not two countries fighting. This is jihad. Let's face it, right? How do we solve that problem? Do these strikes solve that problem? No, these strikes don't solve that problem. These strikes solve the problem of state. they do not get into the deeper layer of theological and religious and all that. This is a state and governance issue. This is how uh the lines of borders are drawn on earth and people tend to manage their setup. This is that positioning that but will it at least deter that that indoctrination? It wouldn't. Not at all. Not at all. Not that not that part. Not at all. Those guys are used to it. You see where do these these terrorists are? sometimes in Afghanistan, sometimes northern Pakistan. They are just like guns and bullets and this is all they've seen all their lives and these are lot of them are uh you know those who are ready to die for the exactly they know that they're going to die when they become a terrorist anyways their shelf life is very little. Huh. So we have achieved our aim of killing maybe hundreds of them but so has that organization received that see we created so many jihadis and fidines and they've solved their purpose. They gave life for us. So this is a war that you it's very difficult to fight with somebody who's ready to die. Yes, it's a difficult fight. But as a state, you can definitely fight and win effectively against Pakistan. That's also because it's a state. So if you control that, you can control the other problem at least to 90%. But what does your gut say? Uh major that what do you think is coming from Pakistan? They'll wait for a few months and they'll try and launch a major terrorist attack again. So again it will be the terrorism route right? Anyways Pakistan state or army is never going to come out in front and say we are going to conduct these strikes against you or do anything else. Yeah. Yeah. They can't do that. They can't do that. They can't do that because then obviously it will be all hell breaking loose on Yeah. They they move even one aircraft it'll it'll start a war now. Now that that line has been crossed now either you stay there or you to or you go ahead and you think the Indian military establishment is absolutely clear that anything even the smallest action from Pakistani army and it's let's let's see this way right let's say Indian army or Indian defense defense armed forces I have two options if they attack us don't do anything how will that look it is not doable no what if it's a minor So defining minor is a very complicated thing in terms of military aggressions, right? We keep calling this slow intensity conflict. But we've lost thousands of soldiers. Absolutely. If we fought war one day, one week just to finish Pakistan, maybe we end up losing only 600, much less than this. M so these definitions are good for you know theoretical studies and analysis and but when you come to brass tax not the exercise actually but when you actually come to you know reality here the point is that we cannot uh you know expect Pakistan to do something and we label it uh this is low scale right that is very bad that will look very bad on us even if they kill one soldier as a retaliation to this we cannot say this is This is a small thing. No, no, certainly. So, it's understood that if the Pakistani military is any way involved in any kind of attack on India, then all gloves are off. Yeah, that is clear and they understand this. I can't think of a situation where India would let it go. Let it go. Uh some feel that maybe some of us want Pakistan to do some misadventure and give us the excuse to go further. A lot of people hope hoping for that that let them try. It's like you know I don't want to say it but I wish that kind of I think Indians have lost their patience. Yeah. So that's that's now this time that's why people are saying let them try once let them try once we are waiting. So that is why they said that if India is ready we are ready but knowing they will not because they have that tendency they are like that you know little snake in the in your reason their existence is just hating India so I think India will have to be on its best alert for few months no but you say few months now look at uh you know Pulwama and Uri let's say after Uri and after Balakot air strikes in 2019 uh then 2019 abrogation of article 370 also happened u there were attacks in Jammu and Kashmir no doubt uh we've lost a lot of our soldiers in you know encounters and search operations no doubt tactics have changed but let's say we bought some sort of normaly for 5 years but look where we are so ultimately the the expectation uh that the prime minister himself has raised and the entire public has his that you know this back and forth this us get getting attacked four of our soldiers six of our soldiers or god forbid civilians tourists get attacked this has to stop it cannot be business as usual right but I'll tell you something and this is my personal opinion right we are very uh aggressive when it comes to Pakistan sort them out kill them wage a war we are ready uh First the soldiers have to fight. We you and I who are shouting on streets don't have to. So and secondly the most as a nation we have very low appetite for violence. Mhm. The moment something happens to our soldier or a fighter jet gets shot down or something. We again start questioning armed forces. There's so much negative content. There's no so much criticism. This guy can't even fly. He got shot down. So you know so first do we have the appetite to wage a war actually? And I think the government understands it very well. Because there's a Yesterday there was announced that today there will be that mock drill. Yes. Have you seen the amount of criticism? We want the country to wage a war where thousands of us our soldiers will die. Where our supply lines will be hampered. We might not get medicine or stuff on time. There will be some electricity might there will be some discomfort and some sacrifice we will all have to make. just a mog drill for half an hour, 45 minutes and there are so many people who already criticize what is the that's that's what gives you the idea to the government should we go ahead with this because public mood is a very very big factor while waging a war at a national level but uh the am the I'm going by the statements that have been made by those in government including the prime minister Amit Sha Rakamantri and all of that uh prime minister used the word unimaginable let's say that yeah and he used the word backers and handlers he spoke in English you you remember that specially spoke in English especially spoke a few lines in English which was meant for the entire world's consumption and he used the words like backers and handlers so I'm only going by that I understand where you're coming from right but I'm only going by the messaging that has come from the government so let me put it this way will this be enough both in terms of the expectations the government has built and in terms of deterrence because we were always talking about deterrence right we have to set the bar of deterrence in a way that Pakistan doesn't think of conducting these terrorist attacks again because we don't fight a war from with them conventionally we've been fighting this war with them you know leading us with a thousand cuts so is this enough okay let me let me ask you right you and I both agree that uh no amount of bombs and missiles we and fire this terrorist factory will shut down. It will not right even if we wage a war terrorism factory will not shut down right because the government will Pakistan government or army will still not pressurize these guys they don't have the guts to do that or they are strong enough whatever why do we consider again my thinking why should I consider only the kinetic or bullets and guns and as the defining factor of my uh action cutting of suspending IWT I think is much bigger than They've already losing one crop. One more cycle they'll be on their knees. You can buy tanks, weapons, missile, you can buy anything at all. You can't get water. And when they will start losing at that level, I think that's much better than a war. Because why to lose your 10,000 or 50,000 men and resources, get a country back by 2, 3 years, fine. In our case, 5 years maybe. you know when you can actually do that by just switching off a button I really I would go for that and this is a couple of days back at your CNN only with Rahul I was saying we are in the war this is siege warfare it's continuous we've cut the we've cut the water we are bankrupting them we cornering them we are this is we are already in war the kinetic action this was like throwing a few catapults at that and trying to break another door but the it. I don't think this is over. So, nothing against the Pakistani army. India will not attempt that. Ultimately, they are the fountain head of it. Right. Well, the the the thing with PM Modi is that you can never say what he will do. We were preparing for our blackout and he ensured sirens are there, right? That kind of thing. So, I don't know if this is this I don't know if this is enough for him actually. Yeah. I can say because he's hardcore nationalist that for sure, right? and he he does not like to take things lying down from Pakistan. We will compromise and all he likes to give it back. So the thing is it does not matter whether it is enough for us. Is it enough for him actually? And I really doubt that. Uh in fact I ran a poll on my Twitter. Um should India strike more locations? Let's let's talk about the terror cabs itself. 21 uh sites in nine locations. Should India go for more? Now we can't do now we can't do. Yeah. We made a press conference today, made a statement where we said we as a country wanted retribution. We wanted to get back and we wanted our people wanted to be avenged. Uh so we've taken out these major terrorist camps, training camps, location launch pads, what nomenclature, right? And uh these are the we gave the entire explanation also. They ran a presentation since when they are conducting these terror acts and all that and we actually said this is all from our side and we have done our what we wanted to do. We request Pakistan not to escalate it or it'll become something else and the whole world is like fine fine you know we'll we understand they will also put pressure on Pakistan now now if we today evening we go and do it again we will lose lot of credibility globally we will lose it'll confuse everyone it's not just about good warfare is confusing your enemy you can't confuse your own people see what is going so even even if Mr. Modi does something uh it'll be I think more decisive decisive than this not just raids. Are you expecting anything then? I'm pretty sure actually something else is coming isn't it? This is not the end of it. Let's just put it like that. As I said I believe in I truly believe this is siege warfare. This was one of the times when the catapults and tributes come together and they start throwing stones to break a door or a wall or a pillar or a post. The siege stays the war continues for a year, two years, three years. Siege is gone for many years. This is that these things will keep happening. You know when the prime minister made that statement uh there was a direct uh or most people understood it as P. There was a lot of conversation about whether we're going to attempt to get P back. What do you think? There are three ways to get P back. One, uh we get it militarily. Secondly, Pakistan says fine, take it back. Why will it say that? It will never do that. I'm saying even theoretically, right? How how how do you do that? Third is the people of PJK rise and say we are going we are opening the LOC we are joining India. Second and third will not happen. We don't have that much traction there people don't find a rally or two happen that does not convince millions of people right the only option left is militarily and now I'll again come back to what Mr. Modi said if he said it it means he has it in his mind like the Indas water treaty he's been working on since 2015 actually now he got the right excuse to do that in that case he is not going for a 5 month 6 month 3 month kind of thing if he's if he's decided his mind on PJK it means he will Pakistan to that estate that they are not able to resist it and we are we have a smooth sailing external affairs minister SJ Shanka just recently reiterated he said this is a national commitment that our land of P has to come back to India it's just a matter of time see it's like that you are attacking if whatever set it's a nuclear power right however weak their army might be or however demoralized they're still army they still have thousand tanks and few hundred aircraft you still have to go through them so would you like to want to fight them when they're at their super alert and waiting for you or you want to make maybe wait when they're tired and frust frustrated and poor and demoralized and rebellious and they people are waiting there please come and save us. That homework will has started now getting the international community outside talking to the allies who they depend on putting on pressure here and there because again I say if we have to get it it's a little long process it's a long process. Final question. Yes ma'am. Let's say um as as you very rightly pointed out and I think you're absolutely correct in understanding what the Indian military has said that okay this is our action this is in revenge for Pelgam plus all the other attacks that you continue to do because you know Bahavalpur or Muritk where they've attacked is where the 2008 Mumbai uh attackers were trained and uh it was orchestrated from there so they've gone back to you know attacks post 2000 also and kind of attacked those uh terror installations But again given what you've seen over the last two weeks, the mood in the country, the expectations, will this quote unquote retribution be enough you think to satisfy the Indian public? Yeah, I think it is a uh I mean we should not downplay this. I would say that taking out so many sides nine in total totally devastating them and tons of tons of terrorists and their family train these are training camps hundreds of people must be living there some getting indoctrinated somebody's getting weapons training all these people were wanting to come and kill more Indians like you and me in this country you've taken out a lot of them you've crippled their infrastructure you've done a lot this should not be taken down easily just you just Because you think that forgies did not walk across the border with hand and few didn't die and few didn't kill. That's not how modern warfare is. Actually we our imagery is of that second world war thing where people are jumping from their trenches and killing each other. Modern warfare is very different. It's a no contact war. Rarely you will get to see your enemy. Everybody's fighting for few hundred kilometers or 20 30 kilometers in case of land warfare. So this is how it will be actually that lust for blood right somehow is very medieval but it does not get satisfied in modern warfare. Absolutely. Well let's wait and see what exactly happens. Uh it is very likely as the major also said that Pakistan will attempt something if not now then in another few weeks another few months time you know this is just the reality that we live in. But we do want a more permanent solution to this menace that we keep dealing with. I mean called Pakistan called Pakistan. So let's see what the long-term solution is. The government has been very clear that there's going to be if there was zero tolerance earlier, it's going to be like minus zero now. Uh let's see what happens because this is still a developing situation and we'll keep getting you the latest on CNN News8. Thank you M Jolly for joining us. Thank you so much. Very nice talking to you. Thank you. Thanks.