Overview
This lecture reviews the deterioration of Russia-Azerbaijan relations, tracing their historical background, the causes of recent tensions, and discussing potential outcomes and implications for the region.
Historical Background
- Azerbaijan was part of Persia until the 19th century, then annexed by Imperial Russia.
- After a brief independence post-WWI, Azerbaijan became a Soviet republic until 1991.
- Following Soviet collapse, Azerbaijan joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and initially the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty.
- Early relations were strained by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with Azerbaijan accusing Russia of supporting Armenia.
- Azerbaijan began building ties with the West, joining NATO's Partnership for Peace in 1994 and leaving the Collective Security Treaty in 1999.
- Azerbaijan pursued a policy of balancing relations among Russia, the West, and regional actors.
Shifts in the Relationship
- Azerbaijan formalized non-alignment by joining the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in 2011 and chaired NAM (2019-2023).
- Relations remained stable until the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, where Russia brokered a ceasefire but did not intervene militarily.
- Azerbaijan's victory in 2020 and retaking of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 relied heavily on Turkish support, diminishing Russian influence.
- Azerbaijan increased cooperation with Turkey and deepened ties with Israel and the West, while cautiously signaling interest in BRICS.
Recent Crisis and Breakdown
- December 2024: Azerbaijani plane shot down over Russia; Russia apologized but denied responsibility, aggravating tensions.
- June 2025: Detention and deaths of Azerbaijanis in Russia; Azerbaijan retaliated by arresting Russians and raiding Russian media.
- Diplomatic ties collapsed, with mutual suspicion and confrontational actions replacing previous pragmatism.
Possible Future Directions
- Azerbaijan might eventually seek limited cooperation with Russia, preserving its tradition of pragmatic foreign policy.
- Continued Russian refusal to accept responsibility may push Azerbaijan closer to Turkey, NATO, and the West.
- Talks of increased Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan indicate a potential strategic realignment.
- Azerbaijan’s choice between non-alignment and Western alignment remains open, affected by regional developments and domestic politics.
Key Terms & Definitions
- Nagorno-Karabakh — a disputed region, formerly a predominantly Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan.
- Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — a Russia-led military alliance of former Soviet states.
- Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) — a group of states not formally aligned with any major power bloc.
- BRICS — an economic and political grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Review the evolution of Russia-Azerbaijan relations and key turning points.
- Read about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts and Azerbaijan’s foreign policy strategies.